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Agent’s Take: What Russell Wilson’s blockbuster deal will look like
By Joel Corry | Former Sports AgentThe Seattle Seahawks are prepared to make Russell Wilson the NFL’s highest paid player during the offseason, according to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport, even if he isn’t the same caliber quarterback as Tom Brady, a healthy Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers.
Wilson was the NFL’s biggest bargain in 2014 with a salary of $662,434. After the Super Bowl, Wilson will enter the final year of a four-year, $2,996,774 rookie contract he received in 2012 as a third-round pick.
Joe Flacco forced the Baltimore Ravens to briefly make him the NFL’s highest paid player with a six-year, $120.6 million contract, including $51 million in guarantees, after capping off a stellar postseason in a contract year by being named Super Bowl XLVII MVP. Nobody was considering Flacco as an elite quarterback. Eli Manning was arguably a top 10 quarterback when the New York Giants made him the highest player in 2009 with a six-year, $97.5 million contract extension.
Wilson has just as many Super Bowl victories with better statistics and more accolades than Flacco and Manning had when they got their big deals. Wilson is the game’s best dual quarterback. Although Wilson doesn’t have the same type of offensive responsibility as elite quarterbacks and has the luxury of playing with NFL’s best defense, he is the first starting quarterback to ever make it to two Super Bowls in his first three NFL seasons.
Wilson’s most lucrative contract will likely come from letting Andrew Luck set a new NFL salary standard. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, a contract extension making Luck the NFL’s highest paid player is on the horizon. Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay and Luck have separately downplayed the notion of an extension since Schefter first broke the story. If the report is true, Luck could become the NFL’s first $25 million per year player with his new deal.
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Seattle’s contract preferences and conventions
Seahawks contracts typically are structured where the guaranteed money consists of base salary guarantees and a signing bonus. Base salary guarantees after the first contract year are for injury only initially at signing in most instances but become fully guaranteed usually five days after the start of the waiver period in each specific year. The waiver period begins the day after the Super Bowl so the guarantee date this year is Feb. 7.
The second contract year was fully guaranteed at signing in some deals before 2013. Marshawn Lynch’s $7 million 2013 base salary was fully guaranteed when he signed his deal in 2012. Per game roster bonuses are starting to become more prevalent in Seattle’s contracts. Michael Bennett has $1 million and $1.5 million of per game roster bonuses in the 2016 and 2017 of the four year contract he signed in the offseason.
One dynamic that could have an impact on the structure of Wilson’s contract is his decision to fire Bus Cook as his agent, who negotiated Jay Cutler’s player friendly deal. Wilson has hired his baseball agent, Mark Rodgers, who doesn’t have any other NFL clients. The football agent community gets nervous anytime someone perceived as inexperienced is negotiating a lucrative contract, especially with a quarterback, because the likelihood of the player signing a team-friendly deal that could impact future negotiations in the marketplace seems greater.
The concern may be unwarranted with Rodgers. He negotiated an eight-year, $121 million deal for Mike Hampton in 2000 with the Colorado Rockies, which was the richest contract in baseball history at the time. Rodgers being used to fully guaranteed contracts with baseball could work to Wilson’s advantage instead. It could be necessary for the Seahawks to make structural concessions with Wilson, like the Green Bay Packers have with Aaron Rodgers. He is the only player on the Packers with a veteran deal that has guarantees after the first contract year.
Thomas and Sherman’s contracts should be the team’s most relevant deals to Wilson’s negotiations. Those are Seattle’s only contracts that set the marketplace at a position. Thomas’ $10 million average per year is 14.29 percent greater than the $8.75 million average of Jairus Byrd’s deal with the New Orleans Saints. Byrd preceded Thomas as the NFL’s highest paid safety.
Sherman’s contract, which averages $14 million per year, is 16.67 percent higher than the one year, $12 million deal Darrelle Revis signed last March with the New England Patriots to become the NFL’s highest paid cornerback. Technically, Revis signed a two-year, $32 million contract but it was designed to be a one year deal. Thomas and Sherman’s deals combined are 15.66 percent greater than the previous salary benchmarks at their respective positions. When this percentage difference is applied to Rodgers’ deal, it yields approximately a $25.5 million average per year for Wilson.
Thomas received $25.725 million in guarantees. His signing bonus was $ 9.5million so 36.93 percent of his guarantees are in that form. Thomas’ signing bonus was layered on top of the 2014 salary he was scheduled to make prior to his new deal.
Precisely $11 million of Sherman’s $40 million in guarantees was a signing bonus. Just over 27 percent of his guarantees are signing bonus. Sherman’s 2014 base salary remained the same as it was before the extension.
The percentage of Wilson’s guarantees as signing bonus should fall somewhere between Thomas and Sherman’s based on how these deals are structured.
Result
Objectively, the data suggests that a contract averaging in the $24 million per year neighborhood with $65 million in guarantees and slightly over $73 million in the first three new years is appropriate for Wilson. Seattle has preferred four-year deals or extensions in recent years. Cliff Avril, Bennett, Kam Chancellor, Lynch, Sherman, Thomas, Max Unger and K.J. Wright signed for this length of time. A five- or six-year extension may be in order for Wilson to mirror the length of most lucrative quarterback deals.
Thomas and Sherman’s structure suggests that Wilson should receive a $20 million to $25 million signing bonus. Wilson earned the fourth year “proven performance” escalator for third- through seventh-round picks under the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement’s rookie wage scale. His 2015 salary increases to the lowest restricted free agent tender since he hit the 35 percent offensive playtime mark in two of his first three seasons. If the 2015 salary cap is $142 million, the lowest restricted free agent tender will be $1.528 million. Wilson’s 2015 base salary will likely equal whatever the final number is because that would be consistent with their deals.
The effect on Seattle’s salary cap
Schneider acknowledged Jan. 27 at Super Bowl media day that a new Wilson pact would present roster challenges the team hasn’t faced before with Wilson under his rookie contract. Wilson’s 2015 cap number shouldn’t be more than $6.75 million with the new deal. The bigger impact will begin taking place in 2016 when Wilson starts having large cap numbers.
The deal won’t prevent the Seahawks from keeping Lynch in 2015 at his $8.5 million cap number. That’s because no more than $5 million of the team’s projected $18.618 million in cap space once the top 51 players are accounted for by including tenders for restricted free agents and exclusive rights players with expiring contracts should be used with Wilson. There should still be enough cap room to extend linebacker Bobby Wagner’s contract while retaining Lynch. Wagner’s deal shouldn’t take up more than $2.5 million of Seattle’s existing 2015 cap room based on how the team structures contracts.
Defensive tackle Brandon Mebane and tight end Zach Miller, who are on injured reserve, could be cap casualties. The Seahawks would gain $5.5 million cap space by releasing Mebane. $2,890,625 of cap room would be freed up by parting ways with Miller.
It may become more challenging to re-sign left tackle Russell Okung with Wilson’s new deal. 2015 is also his contract year. Although he hasn’t consistently played at a high level since his 2012 Pro Bowl season, he probably won’t be interested in a new contract that’s less the six-year, $48.5 million deal (with $29.3 million guaranteed and worth a maximum of $58 million) he signed in 2010 as an unproven commodity when he was the sixth overall pick in the Draft.
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