Goff watch, week 10

LaFleur said over the bye they worked on redzone offense.

As for just Goff…until today Goff ranked pretty low if you just look at a readily available stat, which is percentage of TDs on attempts inside the 10. (No one does that stat for qbs inside the 20.)

At one point before this game he was 28.6%. Today he was 50%. If you combine today with the previous games he now stands at 33% overall.

The top 5 qbs in the league when it comes to this stat range from 55.6% to 81%.

As of right this moment 33% would be ranked about 17th.

50% for the season would be ranked about 8th.

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS

from Week 9 Quick Reads

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2017/week-9-quick-reads

…

The jump Jared Goff has made in his second season is like nothing we have ever seen before. We put Goff’s improvement in historical context, and determine what it might mean for his future.

One year ago at this time, Jared Goff was the backup quarterback behind Case Keenum on a Los Angeles Rams team that had just lost its fourth consecutive game, on its way to a tenth straight losing season. With the 2016 season lost, Keenum was soon sent to the bench and the Rams promoted Goff, the player they had traded six draft picks to acquire in that year’s draft. What followed were seven of the worst starts by a quarterback we’ve seen in a long, long time. Including sacks, Goff averaged 3.75 yards per pass play, the worst by any quarterback with at least 200 passes since Akili Smith in 2000 — and he did this in an era when passing statistics are going through the roof. By almost any measure, Goff was the worst quarterback in the league last year. Out of the top 32 qualifying passers that season, Goff was 28th in interception rate, 31st in completion rate, and dead last in sack rate, touchdown rate, yards per pass, and adjusted net yards per pass. And of course, he finished with a DVOA of -74.8%, the worst we have ever measured for any player with at least 200 passes.

Oh, what a difference a year makes. Goff leads the league in yards per pass, and can be found in the top ten of most other passing stats as well. He’s also fourth in DVOA at 24.0% heading into Monday Night Football. Goff hasn’t quite gone from worst to first among quarterbacks in one season, but he has absolutely gone from “perhaps the worst quarterback we have ever seen” to “one of the better starters in the league.”

It should go without saying that we have never seen this kind of year-to-year improvement in a quarterback before. The difference between Goff’s DVOA this year and last year is 98.8%. To say this is the biggest year-to-year jump on record would be a grotesque understatement. Consider this: before this season, the biggest jump in DVOA from one season to the next we had ever recorded belonged to Nick Foles, whose DVOA went from -20.4% in 2012 to 35.6% in 2013. That’s a difference of 56.0% — barely half of the improvement Goff has shown this year. Foles is in second place in this table, but he is closer to 144th place than he is to first.

from THE TOP 10: WEEK 10
Matt Waldman’s Week 10 film notebook

Matt Waldman

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=waldmantop10wk10

While it’s true that Goff has had easy throws thanks to the Sean McVay offense, he has also displayed accuracy with the occasional difficult ones. I wouldn’t classify this deep post as a throw at the top of the “difficult” category, but Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, and several other starters can’t make these vertical plays with anywhere near the consistency of Goff.

That said, this is not the beginning of a fantasy bonanza for Watkins. Don’t count on Watkins emerging as an every-week big-play option this year because Goff is a rhythm passer who follows his progressions and rarely forces the ball.

Despite the overstated Cris Collinsworth analysis about him occasionally retreating from pressure, Goff’s pocket presence is among the best of the young prospects I’ve seen during the past three seasons. He waits until the last second to avoid pressure, which earns him greater separation than what he’d otherwise get if he tried to outrun them when they still had time to change direction.

As a result, Goff buys time well, but he’s not going to create an extra 4-6 seconds like Wentz, Russell Wilson. or Dak Prescott, who can use that skill to deliver targets behind the secondary. It means that Goff is more of a slave to the progression and traditional scramble rules, which will benefit underneath receivers like Woods and Cooper Kupp (at least until the Rams potentially expand Watkins’ role next year).

Jared Goff named NFC offensive player of the week

Darin Gantt

Jared Goff named NFC offensive player of the week

Rams quarterback Jared Goff didn’t even need to play the whole game to win a weekly award.

Goff was named NFC offensive player of the week, after he torched the Giants Sunday.

He was 14-of-22 for 311 yards and four touchdowns, making it easy to let Sean Mannion finish up the third quarter of a 51-17 rout.

Goff has progressed in a number of areas this year, but his ability to make big plays downfield (touchdowns of 52 and 67 yards scattered in there) is among the top of the list of things for Rams fans to be encouraged about.

The fact he doesn’t have to finish such games is another, though they won’t get to play the Giants every week.

These QBs and Skill Players get the most yardage from Screen Plays!#GoSaints #HTTR #Bengals50 #KeepPounding #Jets #InBrotherhood #Browns #OnePride pic.twitter.com/xmSyaK1V6r

— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) November 8, 2017

These are the top QBs when it matters most – 3rd down#FlyEaglesFly #LARams #GoPats #OnePride #Jets #ChiefsKingdom #GoBills #GoSaints #GiantsPride #FinsUp #Browns #KeepPounding #GoNiners pic.twitter.com/PPcXznECxb

— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) November 8, 2017

Exchange from elsewhere. A post and my responses. It’s not a “debate,” it’s supposed to be more like looking at 2 different aspects of the same issue, some of it purely positive, some maybe still developing.

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max wrote:

There is a direct correlation between Net Yds / Pass Attempt and trips to the Red Zone. Here is the list of the top 10 QBs in Net Yds/Pass Attempt this season. (Net Yds / Pass Att takes sacks into account.)

1. Jared Goff • LAR 7.72
2. Drew Brees • NOR 7.63
3. Tom Brady • NWE 7.32
4. Matt Ryan • ATL 7.25
5. Alex Smith • KAN 7.24
6. Deshaun Watson • HOU 7.10
7. Ben Roethlisberger • PIT 7.00
8. Marcus Mariota • TEN 6.92
9. Carson Wentz • PHI 6.80
10. Derek Carr • OAK 6.78

Red Zone Attempts per Game
1 LA Rams 4.5
2 New England 4.2
3 Dallas 4.1
4 Pittsburgh 3.6
5 Minnesota 3.5
6 Atlanta 3.4
7 Denver 3.4
8 Arizona 3.3
9 Green Bay 3.2
10 Philadelphia 3.2

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Me, in response:

Note, though, that the Rams are not yet that good throwing TDs in the redzone.

There’s actually a stat for percentage of TDs on attempts inside the 10. Inside the 10 isn’t the whole redzone obviously but still. This site also isn’t up to date, but this is not a new issue for the Rams this year.

According to the site that does this, on that stat Goff ranks 9th.

[stats.washingtonpost.com]: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=050&type=Passing

But, they have him with 12 passes there, and espn has him with 17. According to espn Goff has 6 TDs on 17 attempts inside the 10, which is 35.3%, and against the current numbers that would rank 17th. The top guys are all above 54.%. (Though a couple of the top guys, Watson and Rodgers, are out for the season.)

According to a more general stat from a different site, Rams rank 16th overall on Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only)…both run and pass. Last 3 games, though, they ranked 11th.

[www.teamrankings.com]: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

It’s a thing the team said they addressed over the bye, but we don’t know yet what effect that had.