Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Rams Huddle › so what happened to the 2019 Rams (so far ie at 3-3)
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October 10, 2019 at 5:48 pm #106518
znModeratorfrom NFL contenders gone wrong: Barnwell ranks the six top playoff fallers
Los Angeles Rams
Preseason playoff chances: 72.8%
Current playoff chances: 51.6%
Playoff chances decline: -21.2%Of course, this could be an even more extreme drop-off if we set the initial bar after Week 3. The Rams started 3-0, with a win over the Saints, giving Sean McVay’s team the inside track to the top seed in the NFC. At that point, the Rams had a 92.1% chance of making it to the postseason, best in the conference.
Since then, they have gone 0-2, including a loss to the division-rival Seahawks. The 49ers went through their bye and dominated the Browns on Monday Night Football. Forget first place in the conference; the Rams are in third place in their own division. Their playoff chances will fall below 50% if they lose what suddenly looms as a critical game against the Niners in Los Angeles this Sunday.
What’s happened? To start, L.A. has been hit by the sort of bad luck it mostly avoided in 2018. The 13-3 Rams went 6-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer because they came up with the big play at the exact moment they needed one. They forced takeaways late in the fourth quarter just as other teams were going to have a shot to win the game. They came up with critical fourth-down conversions to seal games up. Quarterbacks missed open receivers at exactly the worst possible time.
Over the past two weeks, the pages have turned. With the Rams driving to try and tie the game down 48-40, pass-rusher Shaq Barrett forced a strip sack and former defensive Rams tackle Ndamukong Suh returned it for a game-sealing touchdown. The following week saw the Seahawks convert on fourth-and-goal when Russell Wilson found a wide-open Chris Carson in the end zone for a touchdown, and while he bobbled the pass and stopped Seattle hearts for a moment, Carson caught the ball on his second try to put the Seahawks ahead.
The Seahawks then came up with a spectacular interception of Jared Goff on the Rams’ first attempt to take back the lead with 2:13 to go. L.A. got the ball back, but after Goff drove the team into field goal range, Greg Zuerlein reminded us that he was human. He had been 12-of-13 in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime under McVay, only for the Rams to take an inexplicable delay of game penalty with 20 seconds to go before Zuerlein pulled his 44-yard kick narrowly wide. This stuff didn’t happen to them last season.
The Rams recovered a league-high 71% of the fumbles in their games in 2018, then came away with all three of the fumbles in their 30-27 victory over the Panthers in the opener. Since then, though, they have recovered just one of the ensuing seven fumbles across their four other games. McVay’s team finished with a turnover margin of plus-11 last season, the fourth-best figure in the NFL; with Goff throwing seven interceptions and the fumble recovery rate regressing toward the mean, the team has a turnover margin of minus-4 after five games.
I wrote about Goff after Week 3 and covered the issues with Los Angeles’s offensive identity after Week 4, so I won’t go too much into those concerns again. Goff did miss a couple of throws against the Seahawks, but Total QBR agreed that it was his best game of the season, as he posted a 63.9 mark and put his team in a position to win the game.
Two things about how McVay approached the Seahawks game stood out as particularly interesting to me. One is that he scrapped his load management scheme for Todd Gurley. After playing Gurley on just over 71% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps through the first four games of the season, McVay bit the bullet and sent Gurley out for 62 of Los Angeles’ 67 offensive snaps against the Seahawks, which is nearly 93%. Was it because the Rams were in a key divisional game? Did he make the decision because the Rams were playing on Thursday and would have 10 days before their next game? Regardless of why McVay increased the running back’s workload, there appear to be consequences: Gurley is struggling with a thigh contusion and is questionable to play against the 49ers.
The other change was how McVay employed his personnel. The Rams were able to revitalize their offense during stretches in December and January by going with 12 personnel and getting both tight ends Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee on the field. That made sense with Cooper Kupp sidelined by a torn ACL, but with Kupp back in the fold, the Rams went with 12 personnel on just 5% of their runs through the first four games of the season.
Even though they started the game with all three of their standout wide receivers healthy against the Seahawks, McVay used two or more tight ends on 26-of-67 snaps against Seattle on Thursday. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks eventually left the game with a concussion, but the Rams used 12 personnel most frequently in the first quarter, when he was still available. When the Rams went to those sets, they generally sacrificed Kupp, which seems surprising given how effective he has been this season. The gambit didn’t really work — just 29% of Los Angeles’ snaps out of 12 personnel were considered successful plays by the NFL’s Next-Gen Stats, as opposed to a 52% success rate out of their more traditional 11 grouping.
I suspect McVay wanted to use the 12 personnel to try to create easier running opportunities for Gurley. It also helped out an offensive line that is struggling right now in ways I wouldn’t have expected. The natural expectation before the year was that the interior of the Rams line would struggle, given that Los Angeles had two new starters at left guard (Joe Noteboom) and center (Brian Allen). The hope was that the Rams could rebuild on the interior while relying on dominant play from star tackles Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein.
Instead, while Allen has stepped in and played at a high level, the tackles are the ones noticeably struggling. In 2018, they combined for just eight penalties, three of which were holding calls. In 2019, though, Whitworth and Havenstein have already combined for 10 penalties, including five holding calls, through five games. Last year, Whitworth (first) and Havenstein (eight) were both among the top 10 for tackles in ESPN’s pass block win rate statistic. This year, Whitworth is 20th, while Havenstein has fallen all the way to 46th.
The biggest concern for the Rams, though, has to be on the other side of the ball. Los Angeles allowed Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to complete more than 70% of their collective passes, average 10.2 yards per attempt, and throw eight touchdowns against just one pick. The resulting 89.0 Total QBR the Rams have allowed over that time frame is last in the NFL. The Rams are not supposed to be last in the NFL at anything.
Aaron Donald, who lives in the opposing backfield, hasn’t knocked down an opposing quarterback once over the last two games. That’s very strange. Clay Matthews had sacks in each of the losses to the Bucs and Seahawks, but he also broke his jaw and will miss the next month. As a team, the Rams have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 27.8% of their dropbacks during those two losses, which isn’t a huge drop off from the 29.4% pressure rate they ran during the three-win start to the year.
The secondary, though, has been disappointing. Cornerback Marcus Peters has been making critical mental mistakes. On the Mike Evans touchdown catch, Peters was in man coverage without any safety help in a Cover-0 look from Phillips. For some reason, he stood flat-footed at the sticks and didn’t run with Evans, who ran right past the former Chiefs standout. Winston had little trouble hitting Evans for a 67-yard score. Last week, the whole secondary seemed to break down on the 40-yard touchdown pass to D.K. Metcalf.
Both passes came off play-action, which has given the Rams fits all season. Over the entire five-week campaign, they have basically passed out whenever teams have play-faked. Opposing quarterbacks are 35-of-42 on play-action, gaining an even 500 yards with five touchdowns and no picks. L.A. ranks last in passer rating (156.5) and QBR (96.7) against play-action. And it is about to take on a 49ers team that runs 29% of its pass snaps off of play-action, which is the second-highest rate in the league.
The Rams will figure things out on defense, if only because they have too much talent to be this bad against the pass for any length of time. This is an organization that has been aggressive in sacrificing draft picks for trades, and it wouldn’t shock me if they add a pass rusher to help fill in for Matthews while he’s recovering from the jaw injury. The offense, even if it’s not quite as efficient as it was in 2018, is still 12th in DVOA. A lot of teams would love to have Los Angeles’ problems.
Just two weeks after seeming like the Rams had a clear path to the top seed in the NFC, though, they’re in a realistic fight for a playoff spot. I’m skeptical of the Seahawks, who have three wins by two points or less and just played their first game against an opponent not missing its best player, but both Seattle and the 49ers are legitimate playoff contenders. The Rams are still likely to make it into January, but the sense that they are two steps ahead of everyone else is gone.
October 11, 2019 at 12:00 am #106526znModeratorThat’s a pretty fair summary, very informed.
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October 14, 2019 at 1:30 am #106631znModerator‘We’re not panicking … but … this is serious’ — The 3-3 Rams have slipped far and fast
Vincent Bonsignore
LOS ANGELES — It took Eric Weddle 20 seconds or so to find the appropriate words. The pause, the reflection, the determination to get the wording exactly right pretty much served as a microcosm for the Rams right now.
The reigning NFC champions and two-time defending NFC West champs find themselves in the most peculiar of places after Sunday’s demoralizing 20-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. It’s a position no one could have foreseen at the start of the season, given the talent level, star power and mesmerizing recent success that vaulted the Rams so high into the NFL stratosphere. It was easy to assume a long and suspended stay.
But that was then, and this is now. And the two points in time could not be more different.
The Rams’ defeat to their bitter Northern California rivals at the Coliseum — in front of a decidedly deep and loud sea of red and gold 49ers fans, mind you — continued a plummet back to earth that was shocking both in its suddenness and perplexing in its comprehension.
The Rams have lost three straight games for the first time under coach Sean McVay and, in the process, have dramatically lost their footing in the division they’ve owned the last two years. They inexplicably find themselves looking up at both the undefeated 49ers and the one-loss Seattle Seahawks.
That’s problem No. 1.
Problem No. 2 is, the three setbacks have been so unique that it leaves us at a loss to determine any singular (or even general) point of culpability. One week it’s the offense. The next it’s the defense. One quarter, the offensive line is getting bullied and pummeled. The next it’s the secondary getting burned for big plays. One play, Jared Goff looks like a Pro Bowler. The next he’s throwing over the head of a wide-open target. In one sequence, McVay is running circles around the opposing defensive coordinator. The next it’s as if his mastery and command of in-game adjustments are no longer available. In one period, the Rams are avoiding injuries. The next they are down their starting running back, left guard, outside linebacker and cornerback.
In the dizzying confusion, the Rams have only each other to lean on.
“We’ve got mentally tough people in our building,” McVay said. “This is a real opportunity to be what we say we are. We’re just going to go to work, we’re going to stay together, we’re not going to let the outside and influences create a divide with us. That’s something that I trust that we will do and we’re going to work as hard as possible just to continue to be solution-oriented and that’s all I know how to do.”
Of course, McVay’s been repeating the same thing for three straight weeks.
To no avail.
And just as Weddle was grasping for the proper words in a quiet and sullen locker room, the Rams are searching for the exact cause of their problems and, more importantly, the immediate and powerful remedy they so desperately need.
“It is … what’s the word?” Weddle began cautiously. “We’re not gonna … we’re not gonna, uh, yeah.”
Finally, he just left fly.
“We’re not panicking … but … this is serious. If that makes sense,” Weddle said. “Like, yeah, it’s … it’s … we can’t. We gotta figure it out. All of us.”
And given the speed with which the NFL rolls, the need to locate the antidote is incredibly urgent. That could include playing more consistently or efficiently, coming up with adjustments for the rapidly changing defensive game plans they are encountering, or incorporating new players into the fold (or replacing injured starters) while adapting to their replacements.
All of this is unfamiliar territory for these Rams, who flew through the last two seasons on an almost magical carpet ride, one in which injuries were generally avoided, the wins piled up, the statistics were staggering, the awards were aplenty and the success breathtaking.
But in one fell swoop, the Rams have been dealt a level of adversity that is almost foreign to them. And with time already slipping away, they have to find answers.
Like right now.
“And that’s the truth,” Rams left tackle Andrew Whitworth said. “You do everything you can all throughout the week to try. Then, when you have an injury somewhere else, it flips that spot and all those types of things. That’s the league, and it’s always been that way. Right now, we’re in that little hole trying to figure out how to overcome those things. That’s something, honestly, that this team hasn’t done in the last couple years. We haven’t really had that.”
The Rams got off to an ideal start on Sunday by running the ball seven straight times down the 49ers’ throats. They engineered a spectacular touchdown drive as Malcolm Brown filled in for an injured Todd Gurley and their offensive line gouged holes in the 49ers’ defensive front.
“I thought the guys came out ready to go,” McVay said. “To be able to have a seven-play drive, seven runs all manageable down-and-distances, there was a good enthusiasm, there was a good juice. That was the way that you wanted to start.”
For the briefest of moments, it left their fans wistfully believing all was right in their world again.
But in the blink of an eye, it all vanished. It started with a would-be touchdown drive that at the worst-possible place — right at the cusp of the 49ers’ end zone — when the Rams could not punch it in from one yard out with just over three minutes left in the second quarter. Instead of going up 14-7, the Rams walked off the field demoralized. It was basically the last we’d here from their offense the rest of the game.
The Rams rushed for 107 yards at halftime but totaled just seven in the second half. Jared Goff completed 13 of 24 passes for a measly 78 yards. He was sacked four times. The Rams were 0-for-9 on third downs and 0-for-4 on fourth downs.
And while the Rams’ defense came up with a goal-line stand to turn the 49ers away, then later a strip-sack fumble to set up the offense at the San Francisco 36-yard line in the fourth quarter and the game still within reach, the offense was helpless to take advantage.
The offense’s ineptitude, which included a slew of sloppy penalties on top of an incredible amount of inefficiency, put the defense in a hole. The result was the 13 second-half points the Rams surrendered — seven of which were gift-wrapped by rookie Darrell Henderson when he couldn’t secure a pitch and fumbled on the first play of the second half.
That gave the 49ers the ball on the Rams’ 17-yard line. Four plays later, San Francisco took a 14-7 lead on Jimmy Garoppolo’s 1-yard run.
From that point, it was a game in name only. With the Rams’ offense essentially AWOL — even when given favorable field position and opportunities by their defense — the second half seemed almost moot.
It wasn’t a matter of how the Rams would squander their chances, only how. And by whom.
And it left them grasping for answers afterward.
“I think that’s part of what makes us professionals,” guard Austin Blythe said, “is being able to identify those problems and find answers to them and implement them as fast as we can. But you know what, we’re still a good football team and the answers are in this room. We’ve got great players at every position, great people. Hard workers. There’s no question we’ll come out of this.”
“It’s a gut check,” Goff said. “Are you who you say you are? I know this team is – I know these players are – I know these coaches are. We’ve got so much faith and belief in Sean and everyone else. We’re going to get right back on track. We’re going to do it, and, again, it takes a few plays here and there. We’ve seen it, we’ve done it, we’ve watched it on film, we know what we’re doing. We just need to be consistent with it and, play in and play out, stay focused and don’t let the little things slide.”
It’s not time to panic. But as Weddle said, this is getting serious.
October 14, 2019 at 2:10 am #106633
Eternal RamnationParticipantOne thing that really pisses me off is I just read that the Rams have had a total of one actual practice in the last two weeks! Our mini bye was spent resting players that didn’t play and players starving for reps together (mainly the entire offense) This is what happened during last season’s slide ,practice after practice being moved to a walk through and with the same results. Teams that don’t practice tackle poorly and fade in the second half on defense and and have sync\timing issues on offense (errant throws missing wide open receivers tripping over linemen drops fumbled and endless penalties bad snaps) The answer is simple practice better than your opponent.
October 14, 2019 at 8:26 am #106634znModeratorOne thing that really pisses me off is I just read that the Rams have had a total of one actual practice in the last two weeks!
That’s true. However the main reason was the winds and other weather things associated with the fire.
BTW that came up in the chat. Some were saying look at how they played after 10 days off, and I was trying to point out that they didn’t practice.
October 14, 2019 at 10:04 am #106636
nittany ramModeratorOne thing that really pisses me off is I just read that the Rams have had a total of one actual practice in the last two weeks!
That’s true. However the main reason was the winds and other weather things associated with the fire.
Climate change was no big deal when it was just a hilarious, welcome, distraction from our humdrum lives, but now that it is directly harming the play of the Rams, I say something should be done about it!
October 14, 2019 at 10:19 am #106641
canadaramParticipantAllen has stepped in and played at a high level
Wow. I need to watch the games more closely. I certainly do not consider myself a competent evaluator of offensive line play, but I haven’t thought of Allen as playing at a high level this year. The struggles of Whitworth and Havenstein are a little more pronounced, however. Anyway, the current state of the secondary and and the offensive line make this look like a non playoff team to me.
October 14, 2019 at 9:44 pm #106695znModeratorRams searching for answers after falling to 49ers in third consecutive loss
GARY KLEIN
As he stood in front of his locker, searching for the appropriate words to describe the Rams’ current state of mind, veteran safety Eric Weddle stopped and started a few times.
The Rams had just suffered a 20-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers at the Coliseum, a setback that extended the Rams’ losing streak to three games.
“We’re not panicking,” Weddle finally offered, “but this is serious. We gotta figure it out.”
It’s no longer early in the season. And while it might not be time for full-panic mode, the Rams are clearly reeling.
A franchise that experienced seemingly endless losing streaks during its latter years in St. Louis and in its first season back in Los Angeles was immune to more than even a two-game skid under coach Sean McVay.
That all changed Sunday.
After getting worked by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home a few weeks ago, and then losing on the road to the Seattle Seahawks four days later, the Rams could not rebound against a 49ers team coached by its own wunderkind, Kyle Shanahan.
The two-time defending NFC West-champion Rams are 3-3 overall and 0-2 in the division heading into a road game against the Atlanta Falcons and then a “home” game against the Cincinnati Bengals in London.
The resurgent 49ers — rooted on by a large and boisterous contingent of fans among the crowd of 75,695 — gave up an early touchdown before shutting down the Rams and improving to 5-0.
“It turned into a home game pretty quickly,” said 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who completed 24 of 33 passes for 243 yards, with an interception. “It was a lot of red out there.”
McVay’s message to his team?
“Let’s stay together,” he said. “Let’s not this little bit of adversity we’re going through divide us.”
Players echoed that message, but this is clearly uncharted territory for the vast majority of a team that has known only division titles and a Super Bowl run under McVay.
The Rams’ 3-0 start indicated they might avoid the malaise — and mediocrity or worse — that has afflicted so many teams the season after they lost in the Super Bowl. But after three consecutive defeats, the Rams are in danger of repeating the familiar script.
“It’s a gut check,” quarterback Jared Goff said of the three-game losing streak and how the Rams need to respond. “Are you who you say you are?”
The Rams were not at full strength Sunday. Star tailback Todd Gurley, linebacker Clay Matthews and cornerback Aqib Talib sat out because of injuries suffered against the Seahawks. But the Rams struggled the previous two games when those veteran players were in the lineup.
On Sunday, the offense produced just 157 yards. Goff completed 13 of 24 passes for a career-low 78 yards. He was sacked four times and was pressured throughout by the 49ers’ front four.
The Rams did not convert any of their nine third downs, and they were zero for four on fourth down.
“It’s not one answer to it,” Goff said of the offense’s problems. “There’s not one thing that needs to pick up. It’s everyone, myself included. I just need to be better and execute better.”
In Gurley’s absence, running backs Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson played well during the first half. After Rams tackle Aaron Donald sacked Garoppolo on the first possession, the Rams got the ball and ran seven consecutive running plays, scoring on receiver Robert Woods’ touchdown run.
“There was a good enthusiasm,” McVay said. “There was a good juice and that was the way you wanted to start.”
But Henderson’s fumble on the first play of the second half led to a touchdown that enabled the 49ers to break a 7-7 tie and continue what became a string of 20 consecutive points.
“NFL games come down to little tiny plays here or there throughout the game,” offensive lineman Andrew Whitworth said. “Whereas the year before and even in ‘17, I think we found a way to execute those little moments, and get the momentum back and make a big play that got us in the game or take a lead and get control of a game.
“Right now we’re just missing those plays. When you do, it all kind of just piles on you.”
The 49ers came into the game averaging a league-best 200 yards rushing a game. The Rams limited them to 99, and the defense gave the offense opportunities when Marcus Peters intercepted a pass in the second quarter and Donald stripped the ball from Garoppolo in the fourth.
“They gave us a chance,” McVay said of the defense.
But the offense failed to capitalize. Donald said he was not worried.
“You go out there trying to find ways to feed the offense the ball, and we know they’re going to get on track eventually,” Donald said. “You can’t point fingers and get upset about it. Just got to find a way.”
Rams players expect a team turnaround. And soon.
“I’m not concerned,” said linebacker Samson Ebukam, who started in place of Matthews. “I’ve got full faith in our team, that we’re going to be able to get out of this ruckus. … We got a no-blink mentality. We’re shooting ourselves in the foot, and once we get that cleaned up, man, it’s over for everybody that we face. I promise you that.”
The Rams will not be back at the Coliseum until they play the Chicago Bears on Nov. 17.
The Rams travel to Atlanta next Sunday, and then will stay there for most of the week before continuing on to London. They are off the next week and then play the Pittsburgh Steelers on Nov. 10.
Going on the road might be the best thing for the Rams.
“You hope so,” Goff said, “You hope it’s galvanizing.”
Isolation, Woods said, might do the Rams good.
“Stay connected,” he said. “Just worry about ourselves.”[
October 15, 2019 at 11:23 am #106709
Billy_TParticipantI watched the second half at a Buffalo Wild Wings. Painful. Not just because the food was kinda blah, and too many Niner fans were there. It was painful to watch the Rams misfire again and again. They seemed more like the Fisher Rams than the McVayians.
(First year for me without the Sunday Ticket in a long, long time. Have negotiated successfully for a free Ticket, but not this year. AT&T held firm to just two months’ credit and I said no . . . . So it’s gonna be sports bars or just the local showings when they happen.)
Not being original here, of course, but it’s the O-line. That’s where the Rams’ decline begins and ends. Even as important as Gurley is to the O, I think Henderson and Brown could get the job done, if the O-line does its job. Apparently, they did in the first half but not the second.
And now Noteboom is gone, and perhaps Johnson and Talib on D? Rams have been relatively lucky on injuries for the last two years, and that seems to have ended. If they don’t find a way to improve the O-line, in-season, the Rams will have a hard time even making the playoffs.
I could do a “I told you so,” but I’m above all of that.
;>)
Anyway . . . this will be a major challenge/learning experience for the coaching staff — and the players. If the Rams fall short of the playoffs, but McVay comes out of this stronger and better prepared . . . it’s (almost) worth it. But if they choose to be stubborn, it will be a loss without a saving grace, etc. Our optimism will prove to be misplaced . . . and I was waaaay optimistic about this year and the future.
October 15, 2019 at 12:37 pm #106712
wvParticipantMcVay is a figurehead. I said it from day one.
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