free agency around the NFL & w/ the Rams

NFL insider notes: Don’t expect many big spenders in free agency

Most teams are likely to stay under the salary cap again, but there are a few who could be willing to spend

Jason La Canfora

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-insider-notes-dont-expect-many-big-spenders-in-free-agency-plus-the-latest-on-carson-wentz-and-more/

The NFL and NFLPA will probably find a way to goose up the salary cap some. Whether or not it reaches the stratosphere of $190M-$195M – which the most optimistic of agents are hoping for – remains to be seen, but I’d be surprised if it doesn’t at least sit around $185M.

The idea of it hitting the potential floor of $175M seems remote at best based on what I am hearing, but I’d still caution against those projecting the normal feeding frenzy at the onset of the league year that we have become accustomed to. I continue to see ample signals that owners, stung by the pandemic and the inability to meet their revenue goals in 2020 and perhaps in 2021 as well, will be ready to hold the line more on spending and take aim at the NFL’s middle class, and it could result in an offseason that more closely resembles the drip-by-drip nature of baseball’s offseason, rather than the normal pace of a typical hot stove season.

Even with long-term television contracts on the horizon, if an owner was inclined to want to bargain shop in 2021 and string out the market, there are ample reasons (excuses?) for doing do. Uncertainty about the degree of fans in the stands in 2021, after having almost none in 2020, and with a cap stagnant at best and with the final details of the cap likely not being finalized until shortly before free agency starts next year all creates a potential climate for owners to sit back and wait, rather than rushing in with both hands, throwing around contracts to fill as many roster holes as possible a month from now.

A year ago, only half the teams in the NFL actually spent up to the salary cap; is there really reason, under these circumstances, to project even that number repeating, let alone a surge? Do we not think there would be financial motivation to try to bide one’s time in the hopes that a whole class of players who might normally make $3M-$5M can be had for close to $1M? There is going to be a rash of players stuck waiting on the best one-year, prove-it deal they can muster, I’d contend, and some may start grabbing the modest bird in hand sooner rather than later.

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The group of teams who appear to be obvious spenders is not all that long. The Eagles and Saints have fueled that fire in recent years, but both are dealing with significant cap issues and won’t be able to push the market anything close to what we have seen in the past. The Patriots have as much cap space and roster flexibility as anyone, but do we really think Bill Belichick is going to go hog wild throwing around best-of-breed money and resetting the market at multiple positions? The Falcons and Rams – also never averse to creating new norms in spending at certain positions – have more or less made their beds for 2021. The Cowboys may be hamstrung by a quarterback on a second franchise tag counting close to $40M against their cap through most, if not all, of their offseason.

That’s suboptimal from a spending standpoint.

It’s likely to be the usual suspects – historically bad teams under new management with more cap space than they know what to do with, who have to overpay to get the best free agents to wink back at them this time of the year. That will drive the engine – as it always does – but I’m not sure there will be the depth of competition we normally find for those players. I’m thinking a half dozen teams will be willing to dip their toes into the deepest end of free agency, led by the Jaguars and Jets, and perhaps the Texans. The Raiders’ failure to find any defensive players of note through multiple drafts could see them chase around the best linemen and linebackers and defensive backs they can find, but who else among .500 teams or better will be pushing them? The Colts will be aggressive – but within reason under judicious general manager Chris Ballard – and the Bengals certainly have no shortage of needs to fill, but do we think Mike Brown will be wanting to establish new spending marks along the offensive and defensive line, where he needs help? I have some reservations. Maybe the Titans?

Teams that appear on the cusp of perhaps a breakthrough – like the Bills and Ravens – are prioritizing keeping and extending their own best players, a process that began last year for them and still needs to include MVP caliber quarterbacks in their mid-20s. Hard to see them making a bunch of free-agent splashes. The Packers have to navigate trying to keep their roster together with Aaron Rodgers not getting any younger, which could limit their proclivity to make big additions.

Once you factor in the bounty of players likely to receive a franchise tag, many of them for the second straight year, and this free-agent class loses a lot of its luster. No matter what the final cap figure is, I have my reservations about what the league holds. With the broadcast money and gambling money still down the road, and yet to truly pour in this offseason, I foresee plenty of owners operating in a more limited spending capacity in 2021. Hopefully, I’m wrong.