https://theathletic.com/3729181/2022/10/26/rams-week-8-trade-deadline/

Eight things I think about the Rams in Week 8, as post-bye challenge begins

Jourdan Rodrigue

THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — And so it begins.

It’s not like the Rams didn’t have a challenging schedule pre-Week 7 bye. They faced three of the NFL’s best defenses and a Falcons team that is proving to be a harder out than many expected through weeks 1-6, and went 3-3 over that period. They needed this break — usually a team wouldn’t care for a bye week this early in the year, but the injury-embattled Rams had to get healthier, and expect a couple of key players to return in Week 8.

But now, there’s no turning back. Not only will the Rams play (at minimum) 10 consecutive games, but also their bye week stacked into the looming Nov. 1 trade deadline — when the decisions they make, or don’t make, will carry ramifications through the rest of 2022 and beyond.

I have a lot of thoughts about this Rams team as they head into their post-bye slate of games. Here are eight of them (with all statistics courtesy of TruMedia):

1. Whether the Rams can take one of two games from San Francisco in the regular season may factor into decisions they make at the trade deadline.

The trade deadline is next Tuesday. The Rams play division rival San Francisco on Sunday, and the outcome could go a long way in establishing the trajectory of either team’s season. The Rams have taken the first of two games against Arizona and have yet to play Seattle within a wide-open NFC West. If they win, their road to the playoffs (especially after the Falcons did the Rams a favor by beating the 49ers in Week 6) looks a little more feasible — as does 4-3 with one of two against San Francisco, as opposed to 3-4 and 0-2 against San Francisco … it’s unlikely the Rams get the scheduling kismet of 2021 into the postseason.

If the Rams think they have a real shot at contention this postseason, it’s an easier decision for them to push more capital in on potential trades and especially so before the deadline. The stakes are high this weekend — and not just for Los Angeles.

2. Yes, the Rams are getting healthy (healthier, anyway).

Receiver Van Jefferson — a dependable and explosive No. 3 who can stretch the field — will be back and active this week. Center Brian Allen is expected to return as well. In the longer term, running back Kyren Williams may be in the 21-day activation window in the next couple of weeks, and guard Coleman Shelton is also expected to return later in the season.

In the short term, though Jefferson would otherwise have been cleared around Week 6 had the Rams not needed his roster spot because of injuries elsewhere, it might take a second for him to get his game legs under him. Jefferson missed all of training camp while recovering from his second of two offseason knee procedures. In the long term, Jefferson is a big top-end-speed target who also is unafraid of doing the dirty work in the middle of the field and close to the stack.

3. I think the Rams hope they’ve found their left tackle of the future in Alaric Jackson.

I genuinely do not want to kick a guy when he’s down, and Joe Noteboom is down for the season with a ruptured Achilles.

But it’s easy to see how settled Jackson looks when he’s playing left tackle — actually, wherever he’s playing along the line, because Jackson filled in at right guard earlier this year and was one of the best linemen in pass protection in the league while doing so. In six games and 201 pass-blocking snaps, Jackson has allowed only 11 pressures (largely while playing out of position at right guard). In Week 6, Jackson allowed no pressures in 34 pass-blocking snaps … after switching to left tackle, his natural position, in the first quarter.

According to Over the Cap, $16.5 million of Noteboom’s $25 million in guaranteed money was due at signing this spring. The remaining $8.5 million is tied to injury language and is guaranteed only if Noteboom is on the roster on the fifth day of the 2023 league year.

4. I think their Week 8 offensive line will be as follows:

Jackson, Bobby Evans or Matt Skura (also a backup center), Allen, Oday Aboushi or Skura, Rob Havenstein.

The Rams also hope to get David Edwards (concussion, injured reserve) back at some point but will not rush him after he suffered his second head injury in as many weeks.

5. A manufactured run game can work — in moderation.

The Rams are figuring out how to infuse more stability in the run game, and Stafford is not a threat as a runner, which means they need to manufacture it schematically. In a Week 6 win against a solid Panthers defense, the Rams knew the pressure the defensive line was capable of bringing would likely eliminate the layers they’d need to set up for an explosive downfield passing game. So they began to hand the ball off to receivers (four wideouts, in fact, including for a touchdown) on sweeps, aligned a receiver next to a running back in the backfield and handed off or got a quick game going off a short route, and moved the ball horizontally … which helped to set up their play-action downfield pass game similarly to how a traditional run game could. It’s OK to include screens, motion plays and receivers from out of the backfield as supplements to “the run game” as they did, but it’s not a world they necessarily can live in long-term. At some point, the ball has to get moving vertically.

What is working in the Rams run game: Receiver Ben Skowronek at fullback. On the 32 snaps in which Skowronek has aligned in the I-formation, the Rams have a 0.35 EPA per snap, according to TruMedia. Their overall EPA per rushing snap is minus-0.08.

6. I think they think they need a pass rusher.

They’ll need one next year, too — they shouldn’t bet on drafting and developing a second-round 2023 rookie to be a difference-maker, and time is running out on current younger/developing players (and there’s no way to know what skill level they have in still-recovering rookie Daniel Hardy, who is on pace to miss half the season if not longer). The Rams are No. 31 out of 32 teams in pressure rate this season, a number that is of course skewed by opposing quarterbacks’ well-under-league-average time to throw (they’re getting the ball out quickly) and some lopsided games in general. Still, they are pressuring that little while also manufacturing what pressure they do get: They blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL. In this defense, pressuring with four means tightening the “shell” over the defensive backfield and making more aggressive plays on the ball because there is more help in the coverage.

If the Rams make a big move at the deadline, it should be at this position. As the Christian McCaffrey trade attempt showed, some teams are willing and able to price the Rams out for certain players — but McCaffrey would have represented a deviation from their model of which position to invest high capital in; meaning, they could perhaps stomach an “overpay” for an elite young pass rusher easier than a high-volume running back/receiver … especially if they trade for him while they’re still in what I like to call the “Aaron Donald contention window.”

7. On the Cam Akers situation …

The Rams are still working to compose a trade for Akers, who isn’t expected to fully practice with the team this week and is unlikely to be active Sunday.

Smart teams that might be interested in Akers will read coach Sean McVay’s repeated public comments as an opportunity to wait around for a player who might eventually be cut (even though McVay has not ruled out working it out with Akers internally).

McVay’s public call for more “urgency” from Akers earlier this season did not seem to work the way he intended it, either, because now the situation has escalated. And if (this remains to be seen in person) Akers isn’t even at the facility this week, that begs the question: Have the Rams exhausted all options in trying to reach one of their players? I don’t know the answer — but I would guess opinions on this may vary. If the team, and more specifically McVay, believe the answer is, “yes”, then that would imply the Rams cutting Akers if he’s not traded by the deadline.

8. Weeks 8-17 look a lot different now from how they did at the start of the year.

The AFC West, for example, was supposed to be the most competitive division in the NFL. The Chiefs will still be a tough out. But the rest — the Chargers (4-3 and very injured), the Raiders (2-4) and the Broncos (2-5) — are struggling to find solid footing. Tampa Bay and Green Bay have also played below expectations (as have the Rams themselves). Those contests make up six of the Rams’ remaining 10 games.