NFC west? thread starting week 12

Cardinals’ division to lose? Projection model ranks contenders in wild NFC West

By Austin Mock
Nov 21, 2024

It’s wild times in the NFC West.

We’re 11 weeks into the NFL regular season, and every division contains at least one team with at least seven wins or seven losses — except the NFC West.

The Arizona Cardinals pace the division at 6-4, while the San Francisco 49ers sit in last place (due to tiebreakers) at 5-5. The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are squeezed in between them at … 5-5. As you can imagine, with all four teams so tightly packed together and plenty of division games left to be played between them, the chaotic fight to the finish will be fascinating.

It will be especially intriguing because the rest of the NFC has been so good that, at this point, it’s highly likely only one team, the division winner, will make the playoffs.

So, which team is most likely to win the division title? Will it be the team with the best roster or the one with the easiest schedule? That’s what we’re here to find out. Let’s use my NFL Projection Model to take a deeper dive into why I think each team is still alive to win the NFC West.

Arizona Cardinals
Current odds to win the division: 58%
Why they can win the West:
The Cardinals don’t project as the best team in the NFC West, according to my model, but they are the most likely to win the division. The primary reasons are pretty simple. First, they have a one-game advantage over every other team in the division. Second, they have the easiest remaining schedule of these four teams, and it’s not particularly close.

The Cardinals are currently slated to face the 12th-easiest schedule remaining in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Seahawks face the ninth-hardest remaining schedule, the Rams the fifth-hardest and the 49ers the second-hardest.

The Cardinals still have matchups with the lowly New England Patriots (3-8) and Carolina Panthers (3-7). If they take care of business against those teams, that brings them to eight wins, and it might take only 10 to win the division. That means they’d have to win just two more games in a slate that features two matchups against the Seahawks, one at the Vikings, one at the Rams and the season finale at home against the 49ers. That seems pretty doable.

However, if there is one area I’m worried about with the Cardinals, it’s the defense. They rank 23rd in EPA/play and 31st in success rate, according to TruMedia. They may luck out with the schedule, but the defense will need to improve and supplement Kyler Murray and a Cardinals offense that has played at a top-10 level this season.

Los Angeles Rams
Current odds to win the division: 22%
Why they can win the West:
The story of the Rams’ season has been injuries, and they’ve endured quite a few. The offensive line was gutted early in the season, and that’s on top of star wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua missing time. This led to a 1-4 start and sunk their playoff hopes — my projection model had their playoff odds at a season-low 6% on Sept. 22.

But with the return of Kupp and Nacua, coupled with the offensive line getting healthier over the last few weeks, the Rams have reversed course and have gone 4-1 since their Week 6 bye. It’s apparent that when you’re able to give quarterback Matthew Stafford time to throw to stars like Kupp and Nacua, this offense is lethal. And that’s without even acknowledging Kyren Williams and a healthy rushing attack. Pair that offense with a defense that is third in the league in pressure percentage while blitzing at only a league-average rate, and you have a legitimate contender.

Betting breakout
Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC West +550: I think the Rams have the most value, as they win the division nearly a quarter of the time in my model’s simulations. The defense has some holes — especially in the secondary — but when Stafford, Kupp and Nacua are healthy, they have a shot to win every game. For the record, my model has them as the favorite in four of their final seven games, with the weekend’s home matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles a pick’em.

San Francisco 49ers
Current odds to win the division: 12%
Why they can win the West:
The 49ers still have the best roster in the division, and if they can just stay healthy (a big ask) in the second half of the season, they’ll likely find themselves in contention to win the West. Their biggest problem has been the inability to close out games. They’re 2-4 in one-score games, and in three of those losses, they blew either a double-digit lead or a fourth-quarter lead. I thought the return of star running back Christian McCaffrey might be the answer to closing out those games, but in two weeks since his return, he hasn’t looked nearly as explosive.

There’s no denying it: Things are bleak in San Francisco right now. Their playoff odds have fallen below 25% in my projections. And if they lose the next two weeks, which is very possible at Green Bay and at Buffalo, it would likely spell the end of their postseason dreams.

Seattle Seahawks
Current odds to win the division: 8%
Why they can win the West:
The Seahawks kept their division hopes alive by beating the 49ers on Sunday. Give them credit: Their front seven on defense was decimated by injury earlier this season, so to still be in the hunt is a testament to coach Mike Macdonald and the rest of this team.

While their odds of winning the West are the lowest among the four teams, their schedule does provide some opportunities. They have two games against sub-.500 teams (the Jets and Bears) that are essentially must-win. They also have two games against the division-leading Cardinals, which means they can control their own destiny to a degree. Getting two wins against the Cardinals would obviously pay huge dividends. But even going 1-1 against Arizona and 2-0 against the Jets and Bears would put them right in the thick of things come Week 18.