around the league, april

Brock Purdy Isn’t a Sure Thing: ‘I Think Paying Him $50-Plus Million Is Very Risky’
In a survey of several league sources, including an NFC general manager and three high-ranking personnel men, only one said they’d extend the 49ers’ starting QB this offseason.

https://www.si.com/nfl/paying-san-francisco-quarterback-brock-purdy-very-risky

The San Francisco 49ers can pay Brock Purdy this offseason.

They shouldn’t do it. At least not at the amount of money it would currently take to lock him in long term.

Purdy, 25, is one of the league’s better quarterbacks. In 2023, he helped lead the 49ers to Super Bowl LVIII, finishing fourth in MVP voting while throwing for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns. In the postseason, he rallied San Francisco from a 24–7 deficit to win the NFC championship game over the Detroit Lions, and left the field leading in overtime against the Kansas City Chiefs two weeks later.

Still, Purdy isn’t a sure thing. In fact, there are more questions than answers.

Over the past two weeks, Sports Illustrated surveyed a litany of league sources including an NFC general manager, three high-ranking personnel men, two defensive coordinators and an NFC offensive assistant.

All of them have faced Purdy. All were complimentary, including saying he’s a “quality quarterback.”

Only one said they’d extend him this offseason.

“I like the guy,” says one longtime defensive coordinator. “Better athlete than you would think. As long as he gets the ball out on time, he’s good. Once it’s not clean, he becomes average.”

Last season, Purdy’s picture wasn’t as clean. The Niners watched as running back Christian McCaffrey; left tackle Trent Williams; receivers Ricky Piersall, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk; and tight end George Kittle all missed time. The result was a major dip in production.

Compared to 2023, Purdy played one fewer game. He threw 11 fewer touchdowns and averaged 1.1 yards per attempt less. He also threw one more interception, while his touchdown percentage went from 7.0% to 4.4%. His completion percentage also dropped by 3.5%.

“I’d play it out as long as possible without paying him if I was San Francisco, including using tags, etc.,” says one high-ranking NFC personnel man. “I think paying him $50-plus million is very risky.”

This season, the Niners will look much different. Whether that’s better or worse remains to be seen. San Francisco struggled to six wins last year amidst a crush of injuries but this offseason lost a slew of contributors including corner Charvarius Ward, safety Talanoa Hufanga, defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, left tackle Jaylon Moore, guard Aaron Banks, linebacker Dre Greenlaw and Samuel, among others. It was a mass exodus for a team that entered the winter as the league’s oldest.

While San Francisco stands to almost certainly be healthier, there’s also an open question as to whether the Niners will be healthy—or talented—enough to make noise. While Williams, Kittle and McCaffrey are returning, they’ll be 37, 31 and 29 years old, respectively, come Week 1. Aiyuk will also be back, but he’s coming off a torn ACL sustained Oct. 20, and his early-season status remains unclear.

All of this begs the obvious question: What is Purdy without a superteam around him?

“Beyond the five or six [quarterbacks] that don’t need people around them, he’s in that group of guys that do need good players around him but can play at a high level,” says an NFC offensive assistant coach.

That opinion fairly represents where most fell on Purdy when asking around the league about him. He’s a good player, but he doesn’t have the ceiling of a great one. He’s nice to have, but is he worth paying long term? That’s debatable.

“If they think he’s the guy, they’ve probably got to pay him the $50-plus million,” says one senior personnel executive. “If not, how and who will they get to be a better fit? Maybe they do a bridge like Green Bay did with their guy, but his agents will probably not do that. Tough deal.”

If the Niners can get Purdy to sign for $50 million annually or less, that would be a bargain. Currently, there are 10 quarterbacks who supersede that number, including Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott.

Those five players have a combined four playoff wins across 25 seasons (as starters) with zero conference title game appearances. Purdy has an equal number of postseason victories in three years, and reached a Super Bowl. He’s also finished in the top five of NFL MVP voting, something only Prescott can match from among the players in that group.

In short, Purdy signing for $50 million per year would be stunning. He’s younger than all the names above and more accomplished. And with the salary cap exploding to new heights each winter, inflation alone says Purdy’s agents should be commanding somewhere between $55 million and $60 million annually, at least, which is the range of the NFL’s highest-paid in terms of average annual value in Prescott ($60 million) and the second-most in Love ($55 million).

And if the 49ers decided to wait, what’s the worst outcome?

There’s long been a fallacy that waiting automatically means spending more on an impact player. Reality says otherwise. Since the salary cap rebounded in 2022 from the COVID-19 crisis, it has increased each year by 14%, 7.9%, 13.61% and 9.3%.

While salaries have gone up and markets have been reset, they’re not outpacing the cap increases.

In 2022, Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray each signed new deals worth $46 million annually, or 22.1% of the cap if each year had an evenly distributed cap hit. The following year, Herbert signed for an AAV of $52.5 million, a cap percentage of 23.3%. In ’24, Lawrence, Love and Prescott signed for an AAV of $56.6 million, putting their cap share at 22.1%.

If Purdy signed this offseason and were to stay between 22% and 23%, his annual cap hit would be $60 million to $64 million. If we’re staying on the same tier of player, Purdy would also be looking at somewhere around $225 million guaranteed, putting him below Prescott and Watson but above Herbert and Lawrence.

If the salary cap jumps another 10% next winter, that would mean a threshold of $307.1 million. There’s no other quarterback who is going to get a massive bump on a rookie deal, considering the top-drafted signal-callers from Purdy’s class are Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis.

If the 49ers wait, there’s not going to be another quarterback forcing the market to spike. They could still tag Purdy in 2026 and argue to negotiate off Prescott’s contract, even if Purdy’s agents want to make a play to tie his annual salary to cap percentage.

If Purdy plays well in 2025 and the former argument wins out, it would still be a good scenario for San Francisco. He’d be 26 years old, the Niners would have more data points, and Purdy would remain in tow for years. If the latter argument wins out, San Francisco would have to pay more in real dollars but not cap percentage, even if his salary shoots up to $70 million per year, which would be 22.7% of the potential ’26 cap figure.

The Niners can wait and not be in a worse situation under almost any circumstances.

Conventional wisdom says the 49ers should pay Purdy now. Lock him in as their franchise quarterback, get cost certainty and move on. With players such as Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, there’d be no argument to the contrary.

But Purdy isn’t one of those players. He’s a good quarterback, but not a great one. And in this case, the market won’t drive the Niners into a terrible spot. The 49ers control his rights for at least two more years should they wish with the franchise tag, putting them in a position of strength. Why not see what Purdy does on a lesser team that, considering the ages of his left tackle and top two weapons, is going to need a continued overhaul in the coming years?

The 49ers can pay Purdy right now. Through no fault of his own, they shouldn’t. Yet.