Anybody think Trump still has a chance?

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  • #50364
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    ============================

    “…As we’ve noted before, Donald Trump blew it. Gallup has been tracking the response from voters to conventions since 1984, and the Republican National Convention of 2016 was the first for which more people said it made them less likely to back the candidate….”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/07/the-new-postabc-poll-shows-just-how-badly-donald-trump-blew-his-convention/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b

    #50367
    PA Ram
    Participant

    I don’t think he will win.

    But…..I didn’t think he’d get as far as he did either.

    The American people are fickle and it’s got two of the most unpopular candidates ever to run for the White House. Anything is possible. When you step into the voting booth you can do anything you want. Will people vote for him when no one is watching?

    You never know.

    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away. " Philip K. Dick

    #50377
    Avatar photonittany ram
    Moderator

    Trump’s problem is that not only does he make stupid gaffes, he doesn’t realize when he makes a stupid gaffe so he keeps making them. He’s easy pickings for someone as politically shrewd as Clinton and her team.

    It’s like that documentary that shows how orcas hunt seals in Patagonia by swimming right up onto the beach and grabbing them in the foam. For dramatic effect they’ll show a slow motion scene of a baby seal sitting in the surf with his back to the sea as a giant orca bears down on him though a breaking wave. Hillary is like the orca and Trump is like the baby seal except in this case you sort of want to see the seal get eaten.

    Hillary is too smart and she’s had her sights on the presidency for too long. She’s just not playing at being president like some people say Trump is. In her mind it’s her birthright and she is not going to be denied. For her to lose now would require some new huge scandal to come to light that she couldn’t squirm out of and its hard to imagine what that could be.

    #50379
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    Yeah, I think he can win.

    Hillary is awful, you know. And it isn’t hard to make that case.

    So what we have here is a contest between which candidate makes the voters gag the most. Rather than a contest between which is more desirable.

    And Hillary’s undesirables are huge.

    But I think that the entire establishment…which includes people of all stripes…mostly doesn’t want Trump. Although Trump has supporters, I think most of the people in the media don’t like him, and will spin shit against him. He is on an uphill battle in the media. The coverage of him is going to be negative.

    So I think Hillary is likely to win with the media’s assistance, but I can’t rule out the anti-establisment sentiment entirely. A LOT of people are sick of this shit.

    #50392
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    But I think that the entire establishment…which includes people of all stripes…mostly doesn’t want Trump. Although Trump has supporters, I think most of the people in the media don’t like him, and will spin shit against him. He is on an uphill battle in the media. The coverage of him is going to be negative.

    So I think Hillary is likely to win with the media’s assistance…

    —————-

    I think this nails it, imho.

    Reminds me a bit of the Ross Perot thing.
    The media/establishment kinda got a kick out of him at first
    but once they decided he was a real threat, the coverage
    turned in an obvious way. Same is happening with Trump.
    He has no chance now, other than some big clinton-scandal.
    Trump is toast.

    w
    v

    #50394
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    most unpopular candidates ever

    he doesn’t realize when he makes a stupid gaffe

    someone as politically shrewd as Clinton

    Although Trump has supporters, I think most of the people in the media don’t like him,

    Hillary is awful,

    since they decided he was a real threat, the coverage
    turned in an obvious way. Same is happening with Trump

    Policies?

    #50398
    snowman
    Participant

    Months ago during the primaries, Trump said he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and his poll numbers would still go up. I think he sincerely believes that he can and should continue to be a pompous ass because he thinks that is how he won the Republican nomination. He thinks that being a dick is the way to win the election against Hillary.

    #50402
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    most unpopular candidates ever

    he doesn’t realize when he makes a stupid gaffe

    someone as politically shrewd as Clinton

    Although Trump has supporters, I think most of the people in the media don’t like him,

    Hillary is awful,

    since they decided he was a real threat, the coverage
    turned in an obvious way. Same is happening with Trump

    Policies?

    ————
    Policies is a different thread. This is about the horserace. Is he still in it?

    The answer is no.

    w
    v

    #50403
    Avatar photojoemad
    Participant

    Months ago during the primaries, Trump said he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and his poll numbers would still go up. I think he sincerely believes that he can and should continue to be a pompous ass because he thinks that is how he won the Republican nomination.

    He thinks that being a dick is the way to win the election against Hillary.

    Maybe, but my gut tells me that he doesn’t want the gig…. I think he’s acting like a dick to purposely not win the election…. I think he’s surprised he has gotten this far….

    you can’t act like a dick 100% of the time to have the success that he has accomplished……….he knows better than this…….

    #50404
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Policies is a different thread. This is about the horserace. Is he still in it?

    The answer is no.

    w
    v

    Well, uh…in this case “policies” meant “this is the horserace thread right?”

    English is nuanced.

    #50405
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Policies is a different thread. This is about the horserace. Is he still in it?

    The answer is no.

    w
    v

    Well, uh…in this case “policies” meant “this is the horserace thread right?”

    English is nuanced.

    —————-

    Thats all well-and-good but if you want to discuss Policies
    you will have to go to the horse-race thread.

    I swear. Try and keep up.

    w
    v

    #50455
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    He may have finished himself off today. The shit is going to hit the fan over this one.

    I have been wondering for quite a while now – as have other people – if he isn’t now deliberately trying to lose. I am not sure he ever really wanted to win, never really thought he could. Just thought he would use the election as reality TV to put his brand out there and make money. He spent his campaign money largely on his own corporations. So he has been liberal with crazy talk. But THIS…. This is borderline criminal, actually. How would you like to be one of Hillary’s Security detail? With your life on the line, sworn to defend her? He is suggesting assassination of American political figures to an audience of people who are angry enough to do it. Honestly, if we don’t see more Republicans publicly bail out on this guy, I don’t know what to say. This should lead to a serious discussion of removing his nomination.

    #50456
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    He may have finished himself off today. The shit is going to hit the fan over this one.

    I have been wondering for quite a while now – as have other people – if he isn’t now deliberately trying to lose. I am not sure he ever really wanted to win, never really thought he could. Just thought he would use the election as reality TV to put his brand out there and make money. He spent his campaign money largely on his own corporations. So he has been liberal with crazy talk. But THIS…. This is borderline criminal, actually. How would you like to be one of Hillary’s Security detail? With your life on the line, sworn to defend her? He is suggesting assassination of American political figures to an audience of people who are angry enough to do it. Honestly, if we don’t see more Republicans publicly bail out on this guy, I don’t know what to say. This should lead to a serious discussion of removing his nomination.

    Donald Trump suggests ‘2nd Amendment people’ could stop President Hillary Clinton

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-2nd-amendment-people-could-000000517.html

    Donald Trump faced a swift backlash on Tuesday after he suggested that gun enthusiasts would be able to stop Hillary Clinton from taking away their Second Amendment rights.

    “Hillary wants to abolish — essentially abolish — the Second Amendment,” the Republican nominee said at a rally in Wilmington, N.C., on Tuesday afternoon. “And if she gets to pick, if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do.”

    Trump added: “But the Second Amendment people, maybe there is. I don’t know.”

    Gwen Rocco, a member of the Clinton campaign’s rapid response team, quickly condemned Trump’s comments.

    “This is simple,” Clinton campaign spokesman Robby Mook said in a statement. “What Trump is saying is dangerous. A person seeking to be the President of the United States should not suggest violence in any way.”

    The Trump campaign dismissed the controversy.

    “It’s called the power of unification,” Jason Miller, Trump senior communications adviser, said in a statement. “Second Amendment people have amazing spirit and are tremendously unified, which gives them great political power. And this year, they will be voting in record numbers, and it won’t be for Hillary Clinton, it will be for Donald Trump.”

    Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, introducing Trump at a later event in Fayetteville, N.C., said “to buy that you’d have to be corrupt,” brushing aside any particular insinuation that Trump was saying violence against Clinton or Supreme Court justices would be acceptable.

    “It proves that most of the press is in the tank for Hillary Clinton,” Guiliani said.

    #50478
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I dont think he’s deliberately trying to lose. No way.

    The 2nd Amendment statement was typical talk-radio-trump. Just spontaneous yacking. I have no idea what he meant by it, and its vague enough so that
    people will interpret it however they want.

    Bottom line is, he is Toast. Republican Party is a complete disaster.
    What a shame 🙂

    I mean, who do they have in that Party that can make a run four years
    from now after the disaster of 2016 ?

    w
    v

    #50485
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator
    #50494
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/10/opinion/trumps-ambiguous-wink-wink-to-second-amendment-people.html

    ————–

    Yeah but the NYT is about as blatantly pro-Hillary (and Israel) as you can get.
    They might as well be writing her speeches.
    So naturally they are gonna interpret Trumps remarks
    in the worst possible way.

    I think if you love Hillary you interpret it one way.
    If you love Trump you interpret it a different way.
    Dunno what the undecideds will do with it, but they are
    already scared of Trump so…he’s toast.

    Btw, has Trump said anything stupid in the last 12 hours?
    Has Hillary said anything honest in the last 12 hours?
    Just askin.

    w
    v

    #50505
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    That is true about the NYT.

    But I think the mental gymnastics required in this case are on the part of Trump supporters who want to spin it as “unification in voting.”

    That’s not what he meant.

    And if he meant what his opponents say he meant, it was criminal.

    And if he meant what his supporters say he meant, then he is too stupid to be president because he doesn’t have enough sense to know how dangerous his word choice is.

    #50511
    bnw
    Blocked

    Well gents you’ve all been consistently wrong about Trump from the beginning and I’m happy to say you’re all still in lockstep ignorance now. Trump will win. For some of the very reasons mentioned in this thread, mainly he’s not the establishment. The establishment is doing everything they can to defeat Trump with the media being outrageously one sided in pro-Hildabeast coverage and blatently lying about Trump and then the prominent pledge breaking RINOs defecting to Hildabeast lets even the most brain dead voter see that the establishment has their candidate in Hildabeast. Yet the voters demand change. That change is Trump. I’ve just spent the past few days in rural MO, IL, KY and TN and the amount of support for Trump has been staggering. I’ve never seen so many hand made political signs for a candidate as with Trump. Otherwise vacant billboards, plywood, building walls, sidewalk paint, it has been impressive. Trump will turn out voters in support of him like no other prior republican nominee. Add the impending wikileak revelations and the voters will decide that if the establishment wants Hildabeast then Trump must get their vote if true change is desired. Donald J. Trump is your next President of the United States.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #50513
    bnw
    Blocked

    That is true about the NYT.

    But I think the mental gymnastics required in this case are on the part of Trump supporters who want to spin it as “unification in voting.”

    That’s not what he meant.

    And if he meant what his opponents say he meant, it was criminal.

    And if he meant what his supporters say he meant, then he is too stupid to be president because he doesn’t have enough sense to know how dangerous his word choice is.

    I disagree. The most motivated voting block is the pro 2nd Amendment supporters. That is exactly what Trump was referring to that the media and Hildabeast has run amok with their fear mongering. He isn’t stupid in his word choice. He isn’t polished as a speaker when speaking extemporaneously but the blame goes to the media and Hildabeast always ramping up the fear mongering. It won’t work. The people are on to it. The same old tired ploys against Trump won’t be enough this time to erase the criminal past of Hildabeast.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #50527
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    If English has any meaning, it’s pretty obvious what Trump was saying. Look at the context. Look at the word order. He is talking about a Clinton presidency. The voting has already happened. She now gets to name judges. He says there is noting you can do about it at that point — except for “second amendment people.” They, unlike actual sane Americans, might nullify the election using “second amendment remedies.”

    That latter term is already in the air, and Sharon Angle wasn’t or isn’t alone in saying it on the right. That term was also “coy” in a sense, passive-aggressive, cowardly, as was Trump’s entire speech. Cowardly, especially, because he (and she) didn’t have the guts to spell out their desire to assassinate fellow Americans who just don’t interpret the second amendment as they do. Passive-aggressive in that they want to appear to talk tough without actually having the courage to go for it.

    Everyone knows what he was saying, if they’ve been paying any attention to the far right in America in recent decades. No one was fooled by his trademark “I don’t know”. And it really doesn’t matter at all if Trump (himself) wants assassinations of judges or HRC to occur. He put it out there for consumption, in a context of fearmongering about something that NO Democrat would ever do:

    Get rid of the truly vile, racist and totally unnecessary second amendment, which has never given any individual America the “right” to “keep and bear arms” outside the context of state militias — which no longer exist. No Dem has ever talked about getting rid of it. None would. And no gun control legislation goes against it as written or interpreted for more than two centuries.

    • This reply was modified 8 years, 3 months ago by Avatar photoBilly_T.
    #50530
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Well gents you’ve all been consistently wrong about Trump from the beginning and I’m happy to say you’re all still in lockstep ignorance now. Trump will win. For some of the very reasons mentioned in this thread, mainly he’s not the establishment. The establishment is doing everything they can to defeat Trump with the media being outrageously one sided in pro-Hildabeast coverage and blatently lying about Trump and then the prominent pledge breaking RINOs defecting to Hildabeast lets even the most brain dead voter see that the establishment has their candidate in Hildabeast. Yet the voters demand change. That change is Trump. I’ve just spent the past few days in rural MO, IL, KY and TN and the amount of support for Trump has been staggering. I’ve never seen so many hand made political signs for a candidate as with Trump. Otherwise vacant billboards, plywood, building walls, sidewalk paint, it has been impressive. Trump will turn out voters in support of him like no other prior republican nominee. Add the impending wikileak revelations and the voters will decide that if the establishment wants Hildabeast then Trump must get their vote if true change is desired. Donald J. Trump is your next President of the United States.

    ——————
    OK, I’m saving that post. I cut it and pasted it in a folder.

    The polls all show Trump losing big.

    So, we will see in what, three months?

    Here’s where you are wrong imho, bnw — You think the undecideds
    are as angry at the system as the rightwingers. They are not.
    And they are not as white or as male, either.

    w
    v

    #50531
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    In short, not only did he lie about his premise, he didn’t have the courage to go beyond dog whistles to his nutjob audience and actually state his case in full.

    No, HRC doesn’t want to end the second amendment, even though there is absolutely no reason for its existence. No, she doesn’t want to get rid of it, even though it serves no purpose, is obscenely barbaric and anachronistic in intention and effect.

    And, no, Trump isn’t fooling anyone with his cowardly hedging.

    Trump passed the point of disqualification months and months ago. Hell, just his birther antics and his appearance on Alex Jones should have been enough. But this latest really should be a bridge too far, especially following closely upon his call for espionage against his opponent.

    The call for assassinations, espionage, “the vote will be rigged” — Trump obviously wants to be installed as Il Duce. He doesn’t want to actually go through the process of being elected. As bad as HRC is, she at least is willing to do that.

    #50533
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    OK, I’m saving that post. I cut it and pasted it in a folder.

    The polls all show Trump losing big.

    So, we will see in what, three months?

    Here’s where you are wrong imho, bnw — You think the undecideds
    are as angry at the system as the rightwingers. They are not.
    And they are not as white or as male, either.

    w
    v

    There is another factor in play, WV, IMO. Leftists. I think leftists are more angry at the system than any rightwinger. From decades of discussing these things with arch-righties, they really don’t want wholesale changes to the system. They just want it to return to the way they think it used to be. We, OTOH, want a completely new framework, and an end to capitalism, if we’re in that camp.

    We want full on democracy, inside and outside the workplace.

    Righties don’t. They want capitalism unleashed. They want the “good old days” of the 1890s and the first Gilded Age . . . or, if they’re of the neo-confederate persuasion, pre-Civil War. If they’re of the minarchist persuasion, they want it unleashed with just a “night watchman’s” government in place . . . All of which would lead to far, far less democracy, far, far more inequality and injustice, etc. etc.

    But, they’d have their unfettered, unrestrained businesses, guns and Jesus. And Ayn Rand.

    • This reply was modified 8 years, 3 months ago by Avatar photoBilly_T.
    #50535
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Trump will win. For some of the very reasons mentioned in this thread, mainly he’s not the establishment.

    I surface long enough to say this (without debating it) then go back under. And I am still cranky.

    Yeah he is. He is a typical republican right-wing version of all the establishment stuff. And therefore much worse. Fight women’s choice, make the rich richer through tax policies, deny climate science, promote white nationalism, cut back corporate taxation. He is a supply side type who wants to increase economic inequality, fight gun control, fight police reform etc.. He will have a right-leaning supreme court and will always be saying stupid things (which is why I am baffled at this idea that he’s “trying to lose” recently. He’s no different now than he ever was. Nothing has changed.)

    He’s just a particularly ignorant and outspoken version of all that, as a personality. But then not that much more ignorant than GW II. But his republican style economic policies alone will virtually guarantee the lives of the majority will be worse, whereas the dem version of economic policy will actually fix some of that.

    Some of my leftist friends don’t see all that but then mostly we’ve been discussing personalities and not policies so it’s easier to not see things that way.

    In fact I suppose I will just have to start some policy threads and see if anyone contributes to them.

    #50537
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    ZN,

    I thought all along that you get the GOP too if you elect Trump. It’s a package deal. And his economic team/plan does nothing but confirm that. He’s called for all the same trickle down bullshit, but worse. Much deeper tax cuts for the rich, for corporate America, the end of the estate tax — which only impacts 0.2% of the population now, anyway (including Trump). Trump and his billionaire friends will make out like bandits.

    Not a single one of his economic plans would help a single working class person. Not that the Dems are good on that issue. They abandoned the working class back in the 1970s. But they’re not as aggressively geared up to stomp them into the ground as the GOP, and Trump would be no different.

    He IS the “establishment.” Even more so than HRC. In our system, the Clintons of this world are like the bagmen and women for billionaires — for plutocrats. They can sometimes rise to multi-millionaire status along the way, but they’ll likely never gain plutocratic status. Trump has that. And he got that through inheritance, theft, cheating, lying and gaming the system.

    IMO, anyone who wants to vote for Trump as an “outsider” really doesn’t understand how things work in America . . . and anyone who thinks he’s on their side, if they’re working class, is . . . to put it gently, misinformed.

    #50542
    bnw
    Blocked

    Well gents you’ve all been consistently wrong about Trump from the beginning and I’m happy to say you’re all still in lockstep ignorance now. Trump will win. For some of the very reasons mentioned in this thread, mainly he’s not the establishment. The establishment is doing everything they can to defeat Trump with the media being outrageously one sided in pro-Hildabeast coverage and blatently lying about Trump and then the prominent pledge breaking RINOs defecting to Hildabeast lets even the most brain dead voter see that the establishment has their candidate in Hildabeast. Yet the voters demand change. That change is Trump. I’ve just spent the past few days in rural MO, IL, KY and TN and the amount of support for Trump has been staggering. I’ve never seen so many hand made political signs for a candidate as with Trump. Otherwise vacant billboards, plywood, building walls, sidewalk paint, it has been impressive. Trump will turn out voters in support of him like no other prior republican nominee. Add the impending wikileak revelations and the voters will decide that if the establishment wants Hildabeast then Trump must get their vote if true change is desired. Donald J. Trump is your next President of the United States.

    ——————
    OK, I’m saving that post. I cut it and pasted it in a folder.

    The polls all show Trump losing big.

    So, we will see in what, three months?

    Here’s where you are wrong imho, bnw — You think the undecideds
    are as angry at the system as the rightwingers. They are not.
    And they are not as white or as male, either.

    w
    v

    Unlike you I don’t buy into the lie. The polls showing him down double digits I do not believe for a second. The establishment is throwing everything against him and it won’t work. Especially the race baiting you bring into every discussion. Obama benefited from it to especially the blacks detriment. Trump stays on message about jobs and Hildabeast criminality he won’t lose.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #50544
    bnw
    Blocked

    Trump will win. For some of the very reasons mentioned in this thread, mainly he’s not the establishment.

    I surface long enough to say this (without debating it) then go back under. And I am still cranky.

    Yeah he is. He is a typical republican right-wing version of all the establishment stuff. And therefore much worse. Fight women’s choice, make the rich richer through tax policies, deny climate science, promote white nationalism, cut back corporate taxation. He is a supply side type who wants to increase economic inequality, fight gun control, fight police reform etc.. He will have a right-leaning supreme court and will always be saying stupid things (which is why I am baffled at this idea that he’s “trying to lose” recently. He’s no different now than he ever was. Nothing has changed.)

    He’s just a particularly ignorant and outspoken version of all that, as a personality. But then not that much more ignorant than GW II. But his republican style economic policies alone will virtually guarantee the lives of the majority will be worse, whereas the dem version of economic policy will actually fix some of that.

    Some of my leftist friends don’t see all that but then mostly we’ve been discussing personalities and not policies so it’s easier to not see things that way.

    In fact I suppose I will just have to start some policy threads and see if anyone contributes to them.

    And you’re wrong as you have been from the beginning about Trump. Consistently. That is what fascinates me about his detractors. They ‘know’ yet they are always proven wrong. It is a real movement for change. The entire establishment is against him yet you claim he is the establishment? That makes no sense. The establishment is threatened to its core by a Trump presidency while Hildabeast in office keeps them fat, happy and very much in control. The change agent in 2016 is Trump.

    • This reply was modified 8 years, 3 months ago by bnw.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #50547
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Unlike you I don’t buy into the lie. The polls showing him down double digits I do not believe for a second. The establishment is throwing everything against him and it won’t work. Especially the race baiting you bring into every discussion. Obama benefited from it to especially the blacks detriment. Trump stays on message about jobs and Hildabeast criminality he won’t lose.

    He is the establishment, bnw. He’s benefited tremendously from being a part of that establishment, getting away with stuff you and I could never do, like refusing to make payments on massive loans and eventually shafting his workers and creditors. Another case of this has just cropped up. Hannity lied about Trump helping out some marines back in 1991:

    Too good to check: Sean Hannity’s tale of a Trump rescue

    And that “focus on jobs”? What is it, exactly? He has never come out with a plan to add even one single new job, anywhere. But he has told us he’s going to slash the tax rates for himself and his billionaire friends, and put hundreds of millions of dollars into the pockets of his heirs.

    There is literally nothing new in his trickle down scheme. It’s warmed over Laffer, Cheney, Reagan/Thatcher, Bush (neoliberal) nonsense, and it’s never worked for anyone but the super rich.

    • This reply was modified 8 years, 3 months ago by Avatar photoBilly_T.
    #50561
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    I think Trump is a lot like GWB, but with a Turbo Bombast. Neither one knows anything, and doesn’t want to learn. Both want a black and white world with simple slogan solutions to complex problems they don’t want to take the time to understand. They are both belligerent and dismissive of different perspectives. I think the difference – and I think this is what his supporters are attracted to – is that Trump is more isolationist. Whether that’s real, or just rhetoric, I don’t know. But I think his supporters mistake his dismissive approach to other nations/cultures and his red, white, and blue bullshit for actual interest in their economic and cultural concerns.

    But his policies are more or less the same. Supply side. Tax cuts for himself. Decreased regulations on fat cats.

    #50573
    NewMexicoRam
    Participant

    Yes, I believe Trump could win. Not very likely.

    But, if Wikileaks keeps coming out with bigger and bigger bombshells on Hillary, who knows?

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