and now the Goff July thread

Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Rams Huddle › and now the Goff July thread

Viewing 13 posts - 1 through 13 (of 13 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • July 1, 2018 at 10:05 am #87754
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    SYNOPSIS: highlights from Goff’s “June Thread” (which is here: http://theramshuddle.com/topic/goff-june-thread/ )

    *

    His “adjusted INT rate” was 2.0%, tied for 5th, and almost half what it was in 2016 (3.5%).

    *

    nittany ram wrote:

    Jared Goff leads the Rams to a score more than 50% of the time he takes the field. This is second only to Tom Brady (and barely so).

    *

    Rams were actually 4th in yards after the catch

    *

    Rather than crediting quarterbacks with positive and negative throws using two of the primary variables in the passer rating formula (touchdowns and interceptions), they added more clarity by replacing these components with “big-time throws” and “turnover-worthy throws”…In his 2nd year he is ranked 8th in adjusted passer rating, behind guys like Brady, Brees, and Ryan, but ahead of guys like Wentz, Roethlisberger, and Wilson.

    *

    Jared Goff’s second half was probably better than you think…From Week 9 on, the second-year pro out of Cal threw 19 touchdowns—the most in the NFL—and just three picks and averaged 8.18 yards per attempt (sixth). He ranked first in adjusted yards per attempt (9.14) and passer rating (109.4) in that stretch, and led L.A. to a 6-2 finish.

    *

    2017 saw a massive improvement for Jared Goff….in 2016…his DVOA without pressure was -45.2%, easily the worst of any qualified passer since 2010. ….Enter rookie head coach Sean McVay, some new wideouts, and some new offensive line starters, and Goff shot all the way up to 83.4% DVOA without pressure, ranked No. 2 in the league and the seventh-highest season since 2010. … we’ve never observed a year-to-year improvement like that one before.

    ..

    July 1, 2018 at 11:31 am #87756
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    i eagerly await training camp. i was a little alarmed by curley’s assessment of goff’s offseason. but i’m still positive. maybe he has a slight setback this year, but that’s actually a somewhat common thing for qbs. defenses get a full offseason to study a qb. learn his tendencies. then qbs have to adjust to the adjustment. but i think everyone would agree that he showed obvious talent. he just needs health and focus on his side.

    July 2, 2018 at 11:07 am #87784
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from Despite talent influx, Jared Goff remains most important Ram

    http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-rams/post/_/id/38503/despite-talent-influx-jared-goff-remains-most-important-ram

    To take a big step this season in a crowded NFC, the Rams will be counting on several new faces as well as last season’s stars. Here are five players who are integral in making that happen:

    Jared Goff: The Rams have added a lot of star power over the offseason, but they will only go as far as Goff takes them. The former No. 1 overall pick made impressive strides as a second-year quarterback, enough that he earned an invite to the Pro Bowl. The best thing Goff did in 2017 was limit interceptions (his interception rate was fifth-lowest in the NFL). Goff needs to continue to go through his progressions and make sound decisions. He also needs to be more accurate on deep throws and do a better job of holding on to the football in the pocket.

    July 5, 2018 at 5:20 pm #87854
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from: Ranking divisions by quarterback: NFC North, NFC West top list

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000939509/article/ranking-divisions-by-quarterback-nfc-north-nfc-west-top-list

    1) NFC NORTH
    Chicago Bears: Mitchell Trubisky
    Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford
    Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers
    Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins

    This is a significant jump up from last year’s rankings, but I am very comfortable with it. Rodgers is the most talented quarterback in NFL history. I love Green Bay bringing in Jimmy Graham to help in the red zone. Stafford has been fantastic the last few seasons, a true maestro in the clutch. And Detroit improved the offensive line and run game this offseason — that will provide the 30-year-old quarterback with some needed protection and balance. I think Trubisky will be this year’s Jared Goff, taking a major leap forward in Year 2 with a new head coach and more talent around him. Lastly, Cousins swings the pendulum in favor of this division. He’s the answer to the franchise-quarterback question for the Vikings.

    2) NFC WEST
    Arizona Cardinals: Josh Rosen
    Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff
    San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo
    Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson

    From the bottom to the top: This is what happens when Sean McVay enters the picture for Goff — the QB goes from rookie disaster to sophomore Pro Bowler. And Year 3 will be even better than Goff’s terrific second season. Similarly, it’s going to be a special ride for the 49ers faithful, with a full season of Jimmy G and Kyle Shanahan. Garoppolo can carry San Fran to the playoffs. Josh Rosen is my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’s a sensational talent and quick study, with solid weapons and defense flanking him in the desert. And of course, Russ is carving out a Hall of Fame-caliber career out in the Pacific Northwest. This guy’s magical, with or without an offensive line.

    …

    July 5, 2018 at 8:26 pm #87857
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator
    zn wrote:

    And Year 3 will be even better than Goff’s terrific second season.

    will it? hmmmm….

    just as much of a chance of a regression as there is a progression.

    July 12, 2018 at 9:32 am #88013
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    ==

    ==

    ==

    July 12, 2018 at 5:07 pm #88036
    Herzog
    Participant

    I think Goff will be amazing this year. 2nd year in the system….I expect him to be amazing

    July 13, 2018 at 12:32 am #88061
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    ===

    July 16, 2018 at 3:09 am #88151
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    aeneas1

    there are just so many examples of goff showing real promise as a top tier qb when you watch the 22, or even highlight clips from the 2017 season, promise as a top-tier qb who can succeed in any system that gives him a fair shake, a few examples:

    under heavy pressure, especially up the middle, knows he’s going to get clobbered, but stands in and delivers a perfect strike to a well covered everett:

    3rd & 6, has guys open underneath but short of the sticks, pocket closing, especially on the left side, stands tall and delivers as perfect a pass as you’ll ever see for a td:

    1st & 10, great protection helped by play-action, delivers an absolutely perfect deep ball into triple coverage, on a rope – goff was credited for a 27-yard pass but the ball traveled 35 yards on the mark:

    wants to go left, to watkins but the db jumps the route, smartly pulls the ball down to look elsewhere, pocket tightens as he sees the left edge rusher stunting through the middle, scrambles right and extends the play, sees gurley underneath and the lb converging to cover him, leaving everett wide opn for a big gainer:

    again goff picks up a stunting edge rusher barreling up the middle and calmly, cooly, sidesteps him while rolling to his right, extending the play, and delivers a deep ball strike to woods, on a rope to woods, that traveled 38 yards in the air:

    3rd & 4, higbee is his first read, covered, doesn’t force it, looks for his next read, watkins, who has settled underneath beyond the sticks, td:

    a bam/bam perfectly designed and executed play, with goff hitting a spriting gurley between the numbers:

    with all-world clowney barreling down on him, goff delivers a perfect 53 yard strike to woods:

    a perfectly thrown td pass to kupp on 3rd down:

    with a tightening pocket, goff stands tall and delivers a perfect 46-yard strike to a blanketed woods:

    July 22, 2018 at 11:54 pm #88394
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    July 23, 2018 at 12:29 am #88395
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    i’m so freaking excited.

    less than a week until training camp.

    this is what i love most about sports. we have no idea how things are going to turn out. how does the next step in jared’s career go? he improved a lot from the beginning of last season to the end it looks like – not just from stats but just from watching him play. does he regress in 2018? does he achieve even greater heights? his supporting cast is arguably better than last year. but do defenses adjust? have they found some holes in his game that they didn’t detect in 2017? have goff and the coaching staff already identified and corrected some of those holes?

    can the offensive line hold up this year?

    man i’m nervous.

    mostly, i’m just hopeful that i can witness the beginning of what is a long and prosperous career for jared.

    July 23, 2018 at 2:43 am #88397
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Mike Cahill@PFF_Cahill
    In Jared Goff’s one playoff game he had four Big Time Throws. Of the 11 QBs to play in last year’s playoffs, only three of them had more than Goff (Brady, Foles, Brees). They had 28, 61, and 94 more attempts than he did, respectively. He also had zero Turnover-Worthy Throws

    ===

    The terms “Big Time Throws” and “Turnover-Worthy Throws” are right out of the PFF glossary. This is them on all that:

    ===

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-pff-qb-grading-most-effective-tool-there-is

    What is a big-time throw?

    In its simplest terms, a big-time throw is on the highest end of both difficulty and value. While the value is easy to see statistically, the difficulty has more to do with passes that have a lower completion percentage the further the ball is thrown down the field. Therefore, the big-time throw is best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.

    The idea of the tight window can often bog people down as they ask, “Why do you want your quarterback to make riskier throws?” But it’s less about taking a risk and more about executing a pass that perhaps makes up for a deficiency on the offense. If a receiver can only create a tiny window of separation and the quarterback can put the ball in an optimum spot, he’s now created a big-play opportunity despite the receiver, not because of him. “Throwing receivers open” is a necessary skill at the NFL level, and big-time throws are just one way to capture it statistically. Sometimes difficult throws are necessary, because every offense will end up in unfavorable down-and-distance situations at times, and completing a regulation 3-yard out doesn’t help on 3rd-and-15.

    Furthermore, we may see big-time throws under heavy pressure, turning a negative play into a positive, making a tight-window throw in the red zone where all passing windows are compressed, or perhaps throwing the beautiful 50-yard bomb down the field with good ball location. Hitting receivers #InStride is also important and more difficult to achieve the further the ball is thrown down the field. Well-thrown downfield passes that allow for further catch-and-run opportunities fall into the big-time throw category.

    The levels of grading in the PFF system also allows for us to separate simple “catch opportunities” and “optimum throws.” Consider a 30-yard ‘go’ route where the receiver has one step of separation. A quarterback can complete that pass with varying degrees of ball location, either hitting him perfectly in stride, hitting him on his frame for an easy catch, or underthrowing it just enough that the defender can get back in the play, but with the receiver still having the advantage. Allowing the receiver to catch and run is the important part of this scenario to achieve the big-time throw, while simply throwing a “catchable” pass may earn a positive, but it’s a step below optimum ball location.

    [Side note: notice who Brady throws it to in that play. ]

    What is a turnover-worthy play?

    For quarterbacks, there are two ways to achieve a turnover-worthy play: throw a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or do a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.

    Let’s start with the coulda/woulda/shoulda interceptions. Remember, we’re isolating the quarterback’s play in the PFF system and his grade on a given play will encapsulate his decision, timing and accuracy for the throw. With that in mind, there will be many times in which a similar throw will net a different result. Misreading coverage and firing a pass to a linebacker will result in the same grade whether he catches it for an interception or not.

    There are a couple more key points to remember with turnover-worthy plays:

    There are different levels of turnover-worthy plays

    Not all turnover-worthy plays are created equally, and much like with big-time throws, the PFF system is able to capture the various levels of these poor throws. There’s a difference between a pass that is late and allows a defender a clean break on the ball versus the clear misread that is thrown right to a defender to the even more egregious pass right to a defender that is the easiest of catchable interceptions. All of those examples are “turnover-worthy” but not only are they at different levels when evaluating the quarterback’s play, but they also vary in how often they occur.

    Not all INT-opportunities or fumbles are turnover-worthy

    We all know that not every interception is the quarterback’s fault, but even in the case of turnover-worthy plays, there may be interceptions that are considered downgrades for the quarterback, yet not turnover-worthy. Examples of plays in which the quarterback assumes some fault, yet they are still considered “unlucky” to have been intercepted, include passes with poor ball location that get deflected up in the air or overthrows that end up as interceptions on plays where they’d normally fall incomplete. We can rely on our 2017 quarterback data to know that downgradable throws from the quarterback that are not considered turnover-worthy were intercepted 2.4 percent of the time, so while the quarterback gets his proper deduction, it’s not in that turnover-worthy category if it happens to be picked. Of course, there are even clearer pictures that can be painted, whether it’s a dropped pass or even a positively graded throw that is tipped up and intercepted, the quarterback will receive proper credit for his part in the play.

    As for fumbles, there are many degrees of blame when it comes to the quarterback. The first thing to note is the quirkiness of NFL rules where quarterbacks will receive the “fumble” stat on poor snaps by the center, missed handoffs, dropped pitch plays and other situations where there’s simply no clear-cut evidence that they are to blame for the play. All of those situations are graded properly for context in the PFF system, despite the fumble stat.

    There are also strip-sacks that are unavoidable and mostly due to something in the pass protection and those are plays where the quarterback may be absolved of the turnover-worthy label. However, fumbles in which the quarterback has a clear chance to avoid the ball coming free will result in a heavy downgrade and it will go into the turnover-worthy play category, even if the ball is recovered by the offense. Recovering fumbles is more luck than skill, and the quarterback will receive the turnover-worthy downgrade for putting the ball in harm’s way.

    Not all turnover-worthy plays become turnovers

    As the previous chart shows us, not all turnover-worthy plays will become turnovers. Using 2017 data, throws graded -1.0 were intercepted 34.7 percent of time, throws graded -1.5 were intercepted 58.3 percent of the time, and throws graded -2.0 were intercepted 83.3 percent of the time. They all fit into the turnover-worthy category despite different levels of interception probability, but there is a clear difference between the turnover-worthy throws and the throws graded -0.5 that result in an interception only 2.4 percent of the time. Therefore, it’s fair to put turnover-worthy throws in their own category, despite 48.2 percent of all turnover-worthy throws resulting in interceptions.

    But you’re grading “what-ifs”

    No, we’re grading what happened, not what that resulted in. There’s no “what if” when a quarterback makes a clear misread, there’s simply a varied result on the other side of the play: interception or no interception. Staying consistent with the grading regardless of the result is the most important thing when isolating players for evaluation, and that will always be our goal at PFF.

    July 25, 2018 at 7:53 pm #88522
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

  • Author
    Posts
Viewing 13 posts - 1 through 13 (of 13 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

Comments are closed.