Rodrigue on the draft – Podcast + article (the most in-depth one we have)

The Pile: Inside intel on Rams’ draft picks, how draft unfolded, best quotes, projected fits and more

Jourdan Rodrigue

https://theathletic.com/2564788/2021/05/05/the-pile-inside-intel-on-rams-draft-picks-how-draft-unfolded-best-quotes-projected-fits-and-more/?source=emp_shared_article

If we’re going to characterize the Rams’ 2021 draft class, it’s all about traits, possible upside, and guys who can contribute right away on special teams (where the Rams were among the worst in the league last season) while benefiting from a “redshirt” rookie season at their respective positions.

Because they felt that the starters at each position on offense and defense have been established — and because they didn’t have a first-round pick, nor even a top-50 pick — this strategy makes sense. Those players are expected to penetrate the starting rotation, yet on a competitive roster where most starters are in place, the Rams needed to add complementary traits in some phases, and depth in others. Drafting the latter, instead of the former, tackles two problems at once, because depth and complementary/developmental players often are the ones who start their careers contributing on special teams in some way. By honing in on special teams (with an emphasis on developmental traits), the Rams can make sure that drafted players can at least contribute in an important phase in their earlier years, as coaches work with them on their growth at their respective positions.

After the Rams made their nine picks over the weekend, I spoke to multiple sources and evaluators inside and outside the Rams’ organization to get a feel for how this draft played out, what they saw in their drafted rookies during the evaluation process and how these players can fit them schematically. And yes, there was one “pool party” pick.

Welcome to The Pile — NFL draft edition! Let’s start poking around:

Round 2

A big priority for the Rams in this draft was to acquire more picks, as they would start with just six. But which one(s) to trade? They knew they would only have two top-100 picks (plus the compensatory pick, which they’d technically count in that group), and because of the hit-rate on later-round prospects, statistically, it was smarter to acquire more picks to increase that hit-rate.

So my sense was that the Rams were always going to trade one of their higher-value picks, whether it was No. 57, 88 or 103. It quickly became clear to them that they would need to stay put for receiver Tutu Atwell. Once they believed No. 88 to be more of a purgatorial space in regards to how their own board was falling — and once they saw that South Carolina linebacker Ernest Jones could drop to them at No. 103 as a player high on their board, the middle pick became the tradeable one.

This led to …

Pick No. 57: Tutu Atwell, receiver, Louisville

An interesting note about this pick was that Seattle picked D’Wayne Eskridge at No. 56 (Eskridge has similar traits). Some fans speculated that Seattle jumped the Rams on the target. But Atwell shared post-pick that receivers coach Eric Yarber informed him pre-draft that the Rams were not planning on letting him fall out of the second round, indicating that Atwell was a top choice there.

One source with knowledge of the Rams’ evaluation process went so far as to say that Atwell was actually one of head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead’s favorite players in the draft class. The source said that the Rams also got wind of a team below them with their sights on Atwell, so they knew they couldn’t trade out of the pick or risk losing him.

Adding Atwell, plus two other receivers who do very different things from his own skill set, further pointed toward the Rams’ efforts to target traits that are complementary to their existing roster, instead of focusing on ranking position or need, at times.

Atwell’s small frame (he’s 5-9 and 155 pounds, though “official” recordings of his measurements have fluctuated) is cause for concern, but the Rams say they saw him as a “friendly target” for quarterbacks downfield despite his stature.

Because of his speed, it’s easy to simply classify Atwell in the category of a “deep threat” — but I’m going to make the informed assumption that Atwell won’t be running 10 “go” routes per game and calling it a day, nor will they send him through traffic on many catches over the middle (without blockers, anyway). He’ll have to compete with veteran receiver DeSean Jackson for touches, but Jackson has not been healthy for a full season for the last two years. Even if 2021 is a little more of a “redshirt” season for Atwell, he’s a long-term speed/explosive play answer for them past Jackson’s tenure.

Atwell — and probably Jackson, too, if he can stay healthy — is going to be utilized in the at-snap and pre-snap motions (like the jet motion, for example) that McVay uses more than any other coach in the league. He could either be the target for quarterback Matthew Stafford after such a motion as the play develops, or simply work as a decoy to widen up the space in the middle of the field by drawing over defenders during his motion — not only loosening things up in the middle for the run game, but also for intermediate specialists Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.

Either way, defenses will have to account for Atwell’s blazing speed — Snead said Atwell was the fastest player in the draft by their metrics, and “gets faster the longer the play goes”, which sounds to me like they applied GPS tracking data to Atwell during the evaluation process. Even if Atwell isn’t the target on the play, Stafford’s ability to throw deep means that a defense cannot let Atwell get behind them, so they can’t gamble on staying put when he motions and will have to forfeit a mathematical coverage advantage in order to keep him in front of them.

Round 3

The Rams opened this round with a trade of pick No. 88, which raised eyebrows at first, because it was with division rival San Francisco, for Nos. 117 and 121.

“It’s not game day, so I guess it’s kosher to trade within the division,” Snead said with a laugh. A casual assessment of the trade initially tilted the points in the 49ers’ favor, according to public trade charts. But the Rams run trade options through a computerized algorithm that combines multiple existing trade charts with one of their own creation, and not only did they see themselves with greater value via this trade, but it was also the best offer on the table among a couple of options, a source said. The Athletic’s own measurable ultimately rated this trade No. 25 out of the 28 trades, and negatively favoring the 49ers, because with their pick, San Francisco scooped up a running back and lost nearly 12 percent of the trade value by doing so.

Meanwhile, the Rams had their sights fixed on …

Pick No. 103: Ernest Jones, ILB, South Carolina

The Rams may be hoping that Jones turns into one of the solid value picks in this draft class, and were so high on Jones, according to Snead, that they would have been willing to pick him at No. 88 (which would then likely mean trading out of No. 103 for lesser return) if they weren’t certain he would fall to their pick point. Jones was one of Snead’s favorite picks in this draft. He rated in the highest category on their leadership and communication metric, which was important after losing safety John Johnson III in free agency this spring.

One source with knowledge of the Rams’ evaluation process said that the Rams didn’t care about Jones’ slower testing numbers (including his 4.7-second 40-yard dash) because data and his game tape showed a knack for navigating mid-field traffic to get into position. The source said it looked like Jones had a “GPS tracker” in his head that mapped out the field, and that Jones could see and predict the “geometry” of how a play unfolds extremely well. Combined with his physicality as a tackler, and the Rams were sold. Another source said that the ideal future for Jones is to run in tandem with a coverage linebacker such as Travin Howard, who will return from a knee injury this season. The Rams also expect to scheme their safeties similarly to how they did in 2020 so that their linebackers aren’t stretched too thin — and were looking for sure tacklers to prevent players from getting too deep into the second level of the defense after first contact.

McVay said that assistant head coach/running backs coach Thomas Brown gave great insight on Jones, with whom he was familiar from his time at South Carolina.

Round 4

Entering the third day, the chatter out of the Rams’ Malibu, Calif., draft house was that they would hone in on players they liked rather than get too caught up in position — and that some in the building would not be surprised if the team didn’t come away with any offensive linemen at all. There was also an emphasis on players with hyper-athletic profiles who, though they may need a year or so to develop at their actual positions on offense or defense, could contribute immediately on special teams.

Three picks in rounds 3-5 (Jones, Bobby Brown III, Earnest Brown) placed an emphasis on depth along the front seven, too. New defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, defensive line coach Eric Henderson, linebackers coach Chris Shula and special teams coach Joe DeCamillis provided a ton of insight and opinion here (with DeCamillis also weighing in heavily in the seventh round). The Rams also traded with Jacksonville in this round, giving them Nos. 121 and 209 in exchange for Nos. 130, 170 and 249.

Pick No. 117: Bobby Brown III, DL, Texas A&M

One evaluator described the 6-4, 321-pound Brown as an “ass-kicker”. He’s only 20 years old, so multiple sources emphasized the importance of getting him into a room with star defensive tackle Aaron Donald, and especially Henderson (who was very high on Brown). The Rams hope that Brown’s ceiling as it pertains to a role on the defensive line is similar to that of Michael Brockers, who they traded to Detroit this offseason.

Pick No. 130: Robert Rochell, CB, Central Arkansas

The consensus in the war room was that if Rochell was not a small-school prospect, he would not have made it past the second round. One source said that the Rams hope to put him on the “Darious Williams development plan” as an outside corner because of his highly athletic traits and natural coverage versatility. Williams was a former undrafted free agent out of UAB who grew into a top corner — and whom the Rams were lucky to have as a restricted free agent, so they could tender him on a cheaper deal for 2021. Rochell will start his career as the No. 4 cornerback on the roster (which means he’ll play special teams), but the staff is apparently really excited about his traits to climb higher.

How excited? Rochell was the Morris “pool party” pick, the source said.

Pick No. 141: Jacob Harris, TE, UCF

Harris specifically will be a case study for the marriage between the Rams’ analytics staff and their coaching staff over the next few years. On the analytics side, the “Nerds Nest” — led by Sarah Bailey — used predictive modeling and trait-matching with data from Harris’ athletic testing and film to project what kind of prospect he would turn into (he has freaky athletic traits, but not a lot of actual football experience). Meanwhile, Harris was DeCamillis’ No. 1 player in the draft on his special teams board and should make the roster because of what he’ll bring to the coverage units. Harris met mostly with DeCamillis and tight ends coach Wes Phillips during his pre-draft process.

There is a lot of excitement about Harris internally because some of his traits and testing numbers projected favorably into a DK Metcalf comparison (although he was also described to me as a total “project” offensively), and he compiled a RAS of 9.88 out of 10 (first among receivers and tight ends in this class). His special teams ability, though, means the Rams won’t have to risk him getting poached off their practice squad, nor will they be wasting a roster spot.

Pick No. 174: Earnest Brown IV, DL, Northwestern

Brown drew projected comparisons to the 2020 version of Morgan Fox, who had a career-high six sacks in 2020 after working his way up the roster as an undrafted free agent. Fox is an interior defensive lineman who can stunt-rush and help on the perimeter against the run; Brown very much fits that mold as well and the Rams needed to find a replacement who might be able to get there in two years as opposed to Fox’s four (Fox’s path was derailed by an injury, so it certainly isn’t a knock on him). Snead spoke highly of Brown after the draft, saying that, “his pro day wasn’t so good. But in good old Northwestern fashion, they just play really good defense there. They know how to play football, some of that central nervous stuff.”

The Rams traded back four spots with Houston, which gave them an extra seventh-rounder.

Round 7

The Rams had three seventh-round picks, which may ultimately be important in the long run because they cut two of their three seventh-rounders last year and those players (Clay Johnston and Samuel Sloman) weren’t even retained on the practice squad to develop for a year, then try to make the active roster.

Pick No. 233: Jake Funk, RB, Maryland

Funk, who had two ACL repairs prior to his final collegiate season, was cleared medically by the Rams and they hope he can contribute on special teams with an upside as a third-down back. The biggest test for Funk in camp, one source said, will be how he picks up pass protection. He could also compete as a return specialist, in what is shaping up to be a tough competition.

Pick No. 249: Ben Skowronek, WR, Notre Dame

The Rams used GPS data for Skowronek, because he couldn’t work out at a pro day due to a foot injury. They believe he can develop into a variety of different positions as a big-bodied target, including as a blocker. McVay didn’t rule him out in a fullback alignment every so often, either, when I half-jokingly asked about it during his press conference. Skowronek will try to compete for a special teams spot.

Pick No. 252: Chris Garrett, OLB, Concordia-St. Paul

Garrett wrecked the NCAA’s second division as a pass-rusher, even once racking up five sacks in a single game. One source said that Shula was the coach pounding the table for Garrett, whose 6-4, 245-pound frame and great personality give defensive coaches a great toolkit on which to build. The Rams liked Garrett so much that they drafted him, for fear of losing out on him in undrafted free agency to another team. Garrett’s availability here is said to have broken up some of the monotony of the final few picks — as in, if coaches are this excited about a guy this late, they better draft him.

Best quotes

“I will definitely take any advice he gives me, any of it, I don’t care what it is. He could tell me how to write on a piece of paper and I’m going to take it.” — Bobby Brown III, on what it will be like playing with Donald (who is his favorite player).

“I woke up with the Rams on my mind. I’m just like, they’ve got to come get me. I’ve just got to come do my job there. So, the whole day today, I was just waiting on a call from a California number, waiting on the Rams. All day I’ve been waiting on this call.” — Jones, on how convinced he was that the Rams would draft him on Day 2.

“I can’t wait. I’ve only dreamed of that. I mean, I remember watching Matthew Stafford throwing to Megatron, so that’s things that only people can dream of.” — Harris, on what it will be like to catch a pass from Stafford.

Bottom of The Pile

• The Rams signed 10 undrafted free agents who will compete in the spring and summer. This process begins about three weeks prior to the draft itself, when several position coaches and scouts pair up to determine who they’ll bring into the fold and begin conversations with agents. The final flurry of calls and transactions to secure prospects occurs in the seventh round and immediately after the draft. The undrafted free agents for the Rams are as follows:

WR Landen Akers, Iowa State
T Alaric Jackson, Iowa
S Paris Ford, Pittsburgh
S Jovan Grant, Merrimack College
WR/KR Jeremiah Haydel, Texas State
OL Jordan Meredith, Western Kentucky
OLB Max Roberts, Boston College
DT George Silvanic, Air Force
S Troy Warner, BYU
DB Brontae Harris, UAB

• I’ve covered this in-depth since the draft ended, but to reiterate: The Rams did not draft a developmental offensive lineman to redshirt for a year and be a long-term solution for three upcoming contracts in the next year. They have drafted one offensive lineman in the last two seasons in Tremayne Anchrum, a seventh-rounder with a lot of potential. They feel they are in a good spot on the offensive line for now — a source said that things are currently penciled in for Andrew Whitworth (LT), David Edwards (LG), Austin Corbett (C), Bobby Evans (RG) and Rob Havenstein to open camp as the starting lineup. Whitworth will turn 40 this year, Corbett has never played center for the Rams and depth there looks shaky and/or unproven. As I said on the 11 Personnel podcast this week — by the time you notice the ants are in the house, it’s already too late. I’ll add that it’s not like the Rams didn’t like any of the linemen — a couple they did like were gone before their picks.

• The medical information and backgrounds on players were one of the toughest pieces of the standard evaluation process to overcome, due to COVID-19-related changes to spring all-star events and the NFL Combine Teams were getting full medical information up until the night before the draft on some players. The Rams don’t see a lot of benefit in the events of the combine, but the medical data is crucial to the projection of players — even, as one person within the organization put it, to apply scientific modeling to how a player’s body will gain and distribute weight once they get into an NFL system. Rams director of sports performance Reggie Scott’s insight during this process was crucial to their operation.

That article is an excellent recap. Yet it didn’t make me feel any better about the Rams passing on some talented centres in the 2nd and 3rd round.

Late round and UDFA safeties have a decent track record of making the Rams roster. Given that Johnson’s departure leaves a hole, Warner has a good chance of sticking with the team. The UDFA safety out of Pittsburgh ran a 4.85 40. I doubt he makes it.

We will rally around Corbett, who will sign a long term deal during the season, and we will play good football!

It could happen

canadaram wrote:

That article is an excellent recap. Yet it didn’t make me feel any better about the Rams passing on some talented centres in the 2nd and 3rd round.

i agree. and i don’t think the rams fool anyone with tutu.

it was not a good pick. the rest of the draft was good though.