Yep, Seattle will be tough.

from: Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott among most impactful RBs of 2018

Cynthia Frelund

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000978645/article/todd-gurley-ezekiel-elliott-among-most-impactful-rbs-of-2018?campaign=tw-nf-sf200926988-sf200926988&sf200926988=1&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

I’ve created a method to contextualize production at running back and relate it to a team’s ability to win. My model to measure running back impact uses seven seasons of data (2011-2017) to “learn” how games were won. It also compares the results from the past to the trends we’re seeing today. To oversimplify how the model works: I measure how each drive got a team closer to or further from a victory.

As the game has evolved and teams have advanced in their personnel, matchup and play-calling strategies, the running back position has changed the most. A team’s production at the running back position has been created in a number of ways over the past seven seasons: Some via committee backfields, some from using the back in the passing game and some from true every-down backs. Individual running back contributions therefore have become more situational.

For example, through seven weeks this season, 53 receiving touchdowns had been scored by running backs, tied for the third-most since 1970 — and the other three years were 1983 (56), 1989 (54) and 1986 (53). The point I want to hammer home is that there are many ways to get production out of this position, and strategies vary from team to team.

Here’s a quick overview of what I did to determine running back impact:

— Using 10 seasons of historical data, I layered spatial data on top of traditional stats using computer vision. By adding what happened when a back had the ball (e.g. number of tackles broken, yards after contact, yards after the catch), I was able to better contextualize traditional stats like scrimmage yards and touchdowns.

— Each drive was also evaluated with tracking data about what backs did when they didn’t touch the ball. Actions like blocking on passing downs, and situations like facing defenses who stacked the box or drawing extra defensive attention in the red zone showed how the backs created opportunities for their teammates.

— To define the connection between wins and the historical profiles, I enlisted the help of eight coaches and players to make sure the results had true football context.

— In each team’s system, the weighing of “on-” and “off-” ball actions of backs varies (because what is asked of them varies) but they can all be compared in terms of how much they impacted first downs and touchdowns that resulted in game-relevant scoring.

Through Week 7, here are the five most valuable backs in terms of impact, followed by a bonus five as well as five fast risers, for extra measure.

1 Todd Gurley

RB Rams

Gurley is the archetype for this metric. Not only can you can see it when you watch him play but the traditional and advanced metrics, even without context, match the eye test and the wins follow. Part of the reason the eye test works here is because his 24.1 touches per game pace the NFL, just like his 14 touchdowns. Gurley leads the league in rushing first downs per game (5.7) and 44 percent of his receptions have moved the sticks (11 of 25). Then, add the context of how he changes space second-most often of any back on downs when he’s not the ball carrier or targeted (as measured by how many defenders are on him and how close they stay to him). The idea behind this metric is to measure how related a player is to wins, and no running back — or any other offensive player who is not a quarterback — rates higher through seven weeks.

2018 traditional stats: 7 games | 144 att | 686 rush yds | 4.8 ypc | 11 rush TDs | 25 rec | 270 rec yds | 3 rec TDs

…

Rams opposition research: Breaking down the Packers https://t.co/cMCfQiGVCE via @theramswire

— RamsNewsNow (@RamsNewsNow) October 28, 2018

Rams only put Sam Shields through one-rep tryout before signing him https://t.co/Cxob4tjEIK via @theramswire

— RamsNewsNow (@RamsNewsNow) October 28, 2018

ME: According to Football Outsiders, the Rams rank 1st when the run is to left OT, 8th when the run is to right OT, and 1st when the run is to the middle (they do it as G-C-G). BTW incidentally, the Rams rank 1st in number of runs stuffed for the first time since I have looked at F.O. OL stats going back years.

Rams run of Super Bowl-winning QBs starts with visit from Aaron Rodgers
play

Lindsey Thiry

http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-rams/post/_/id/39208/rams-run-of-super-bowl-winning-qbs-starts-with-visit-from-aaron-rodgers

THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. – Ndamukong Suh isn’t so sure Aaron Rodgers likes him.

It’s unlikely their upcoming run-in on Sunday at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum will lend any clarification.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should have more mobility when the restrictive brace he has worn on his injured left knee comes off after the bye. AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster
“He usually doesn’t talk to me,” Suh said about Rodgers, whom he faced regularly in the NFC North as a member of the Detroit Lions. “But I don’t really need a response. My response is when he’s getting up from the ground. That’s what I’m excited for, or giving him a nice L.”

The Los Angeles Rams are undefeated through seven games for the first time since 1985 and, as they hit the halfway mark of the season, are preparing to face a gauntlet of Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, starting with Rodgers and the 3-2 Green Bay Packers.

Suh, who played five seasons in Detroit, has sacked Rodgers 2.5 times and has defeated him twice in their seven meetings. The Rams, however, are 0-4 against the two-time MVP, though Rodgers has never faced a Sean McVay-coached team.

“The great ones, you try to slow them down,” defensive coordinator Wade Phillips said. “Certainly, you don’t shut them out, but we’ve got to play really good pass defense, got to have a rush and all the things it takes.”

Rodgers is coming off a bye week after back-to-back performances in which he passed for 400 yards with no interceptions in a loss to the Detroit Lions and a victory over the San Francisco 49ers.

Rams players said they were plenty familiar with Rodgers before studying him on film this week.

“It’s A-Rod,” said cornerback Marcus Peters, who keenly remembered losing to the All-Pro quarterback as a rookie with the Kansas City Chiefs. “C’mon now. We all know what he’s going to do.”

Said Aaron Donald, whom Rodgers defeated in 2015: “He’s a great quarterback. Just from watching him, from growing up and watching him since I’ve been in the league.”

This season, Rodgers is ranked 10th in passing yards with 1,997. He has thrown 12 touchdowns and only one interception, despite playing through a knee injury.

“He’s an elite quarterback,” said Suh, who has three sacks and two fumble recoveries. “Very smart, cadence-wise as well as situation-wise, tries to keep you always guessing.”

For the Rams’ part, their 13th-ranked total defense appeared to hit its stride last Sunday in a 39-10 victory over the 49ers.

After a fast start through the first two games of the season, which included six consecutive shutout quarters, the defense struggled to keep teams out of the end zone, giving up 31 points to the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks, and was unable to put together a complete performance between the pass and the run. Now, the Rams’ pass and run defense both rank 12th in the league, giving up 227 and 100.1 yards per game, respectively.

Part of the issue, players said, was building chemistry.

“We’re learning each other,” safety John Johnson III said. “We’re learning what our strengths and weaknesses are and we’re going from there.”

The Rams added Suh and Peters in the offseason, along with Aqib Talib, who was put on injured reserve after Week 3 and has been replaced by Troy Hill and Sam Shields. At times, players tried to do too much, especially in the run game, and broke from assignments in an effort to make plays.

“I think we had to hit a little adversity, teams scoring the ball, moving the ball on us,” said Johnson, who has a team-high three interceptions. “But I think we’re still growing and as long as we keep going up, I think we’ll be in good shape.”

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Against the 49ers, the Rams forced four takeaways that resulted in 24 points and sacked quarterback C.J. Beathard seven times.

“Definitely feel like it’s a positive coming off that performance,” linebacker Mark Barron said. “It wasn’t perfect, but we most definitely played a great game. It was definitely something we can build on.”

Like Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, whom the Rams have defeated in two of their past three meetings, the key will be keeping Rodgers from extending plays.

“He can move around in the pocket, he can do a lot of different things with his feet,” said Donald, who had a career-high four sacks last Sunday but has never taken down Rodgers. “Got to get to him and bottle him up.”

And the Rams’ secondary, which intercepted two passes last Sunday, must keep track of the Packers’ receivers for a prolonged period.

“You just going to have to cover for a little bit longer than three seconds,” said Peters, who has one interception this season. “But I think we got the perfect D-line to add some pressure to him, to try to get him to stay in the pocket and do exactly what we want for him to do.”

Said Phillips: “It’s obviously a big task. The guy’s a great player and unfortunately for us, he got a week to rest.”

Packers plotting how to keep Rams’ Aaron Donald from disrupting offense

Jim Owczarski, Packers News

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2018/10/24/packers-plotting-how-keep-rams-aaron-donald-disrupting-offense/1754035002/

GREEN BAY – Corey Linsley’s eyebrows raised involuntarily.

In Aaron Donald’s brief yet illustrious career, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year has hit or sacked the quarterback in 54 of his 69 regular-season games. One of the teams to keep the three-time All-Pro defensive tackle off their quarterback? The 2015 Green Bay Packers.

It was an odd stat the Packers’ center did not know, but much has changed since Oct. 11, 2015 when the Packers beat the Rams 24-10 at Lambeau Field. Linsley was just a second-year starter that year, flanked by T.J. Lang and Josh Sitton. The Rams and Donald played in St. Louis then, under different coaches in a 4-3 defensive scheme.

“He’s gotten a lot better at what he does,” Linsley said with a sheepish smile. “He’s having a hell of a year. One of the most dominant players in the NFL right now. Thinking back to that game, I thought we had a pretty good game plan. Honestly, they’re an entirely different team. The only person you can look back on is Aaron Donald.”

Yet for the Packers, once again keeping Donald away from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday will be paramount to having offensive success.

“The guy’s a dynamic player,” Packers guard Lane Taylor said. “This is my first time going against him and really studying him but he’s definitely a good player. I can see why he got paid $20 million.”

After he sat out training camp for the second straight year, the Rams satisfied Donald with a six-year, $135 million extension. And after working back into form the first three games of the season (seven tackles, one quarterback hit), the 27-year-old has exploded into offensive backfields.

Over his last four games he has sacked the quarterback eight times, hit passers 12 times, recorded 10 tackles for loss and 19 total tackles.

“You’ve got to be aware of where he’s at,” Rodgers said. “He’s one of the more dominant players that the league has seen in a number of years, and then you pair that with a future Hall of Famer right next to him (Ndamukong Suh) who can dominate the game as well and has since his first year playing.”

For the Packers, the first part of preparing for Donald is being ready for Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Long known for his 3-4 defensive front, Phillips has tailored his game plans to his talent – so Donald and the rest of the defensive line actually play more of a traditional four-man game up front.

“It’s an illusion. It’s not a 3-4,” Packers guard Byron Bell said.

The reason for the illusion is simple: Donald can remain in his preferred “3-technique” position, which means he lines up on the offside shoulder of a guard as opposed to moving further down the line to play off Packers tackles Bryan Bulaga or David Bakhtiari.

“It’s not a 3-4,” Bell reiterated. “It’s an illusion to throw guys off, get their eyes in places. It says it’s a 3-4 but it’s not. You’ve got play the personnel you’ve got. They play to their strength, and their strength is a good 3-technique.

“Teams get lost in the whole ‘3-4, who do they got?’ – just go out there and play your style of ball.”

Donald’s positioning allows Suh and defensive end Michael Brockers (20 career sacks) to see more single blocks and also move to other spots on the line. Suh, 31, isn’t asked to anchor a defense anymore, but his power rush remains elite in one-on-one situations. Brockers is also widely respected for his ability in the Packers’ offensive line room.

But the straw that stirs that pass-rush formula is Donald, and it’s not just the speed-to-power combination he has. It’s how he can use his leverage as a “shorter” player at 6-feet-1 and how good his footwork and hand actions are.

“He’s a dominant player,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy said flatly. “Probably clearly one of the best or the best defensive players in the league.”

Add all that with what Linsley and Taylor say is an underrated part of his game, which is a motor that matches his athletic ability.

“One of the best defensive players, probably, of our generation,” Bell said. “He plays hard. He plays fast. He’s a great player.”

Zooey wrote:

My daughter has some dance convention, and I will be there

So…you;re not REALLY a Rams fan.

That’s okay. To each his own. Who am I to judge.

InvaderRam wrote:

and you know what’s really impressive about this stat?

the fact that he’s doing it at a time when the league is putting every freaking roadblock it can think of to slow down defensive players.

i mean just think about it. gurley and goff are putting up unreal numbers. but you expect numbers across the league to be going up in terms of offense.

donald is being handcuffed, and he’s still dominating. transcendent i tell ya. freaking transcendent.

All true. And on top of it,

#1 he was off to a slow start after missing camp

and

#2 Hali, who ranks first, is an edge rusher who doesn’t start at the snap surrounded by blockers

I wish they had put up the nearest DT who did anything close to that

Vincent Bonsignore@VinnyBonsignore
Looks like Trevon Young’s back starting barking this week. #Rams coach Sean McVay said the rookie OLB is likely a no-go on Sunday

Gary Klein@LATimesklein
Jared Goff was sore after 49ers game. Asked if his QB was 100%, McVay said, “Yeah, I think so. He looks good. He’s throwing the ball around really well these last couple days. I think it’s just been maintenance things, but he’s feeling good.”

Rich Hammond@Rich_Hammond
The battle between Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Rodgers resumes Sunday, in their first meeting since the 2014 game when Suh stepped on Rodgers’ calf. Several times this week, Suh praised Rodgers as an “elite quarterback.” But…
…Suh also said the following when asked about on-field interaction with Rodgers: “He doesn’t really talk to me. I don’t know if he likes me. I don’t really need a response. My response is when he’s getting up from the ground.”

Brian Mazurowski@BMaz1
Chad Kelly has now been kicked off a High School, College, and NFL football team. That has to be a first.

Rodger Saffold is our highest graded guard in the NFL through seven weeks of the 2018 season. pic.twitter.com/LLbJpkeNkf

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 26, 2018