Eagles-Rams scouting report, prediction

Paul Domowitch

http://www2.philly.com/eagles/nick-foles-rams-eagles-rpos-zach-ertz-todd-gurley-carson-wentz-20181213.html

The 6-7 Eagles will play at the 11-2 Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Here are a preview, prediction, individual matchups to watch, and keys to the game.

When Eagles run the ball

Doug Pederson: No plans to bring John DeFilippo to the Eagles
With Nick Foles expected to start against Rams, Eagles need to be committed to the run
Carson Wentz isn’t the problem with the Eagles | Marcus Hayes
The Eagles’ running-back corps took another hit Sunday when Corey Clement went down with a knee injury, though that probably will impact the pass game more than the run game. The Eagles ran just 48 plays Sunday, tying their season low. Only 14 of them were run plays, despite the fact that they gained 32 yards on their first four carries.
Rookie Josh Adams, who had 22 carries against the Giants and 20 against the Redskins, had just seven against the Cowboys, four of which came on the Eagles’ first possession (for 30 yards). He’s averaging an impressive 5.0 yards per carry and 5.1 on first down.
In last year’s 43-35 win over the Rams, the Eagles rushed 32 times and controlled the ball for more than 39 minutes. Despite having Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh in the middle of their line, the Rams are allowing a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry. The Bears rushed for 194 yards on 35 carries against them Sunday in their 15-6 win, and controlled the ball for nearly 37 minutes.

EDGE: Even

When Eagles throw the ball

Carson Wentz is dealing with back issues and likely will sit out Sunday’s game. He’d be replaced by Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles, who hasn’t played since Week 2. Foles struggled in his two early-season starts. He had a 78.9 passer rating, threw just one touchdown, and averaged only 5.5 yards per attempt in a win over Atlanta and a loss to Tampa Bay. Tight end Zach Ertz is third in the league in receiving with 98 receptions. With Foles at QB, the Eagles might run a few more RPOs than they did with Wentz.

The Rams have given up 27 TD passes, fifth most in the league. But they’ve given up only two and have four interceptions since cornerback Aquib Talib’s return from an ankle injury two games ago. The Rams have given up 50 completions of 20 yards or more, just one fewer than the Eagles. DT Aaron Donald will be a difficult challenge inside for left guard Isaac Seumalo. Donald has a league-leading 16 ½ of the Rams’ 34 sacks.

EDGE: Rams

When Rams run the ball

At 6-foot-1 and 224 pounds, Todd Gurley is a rare blend of speed and power. He rushed for 1,305 yards and 13 TDs last year when he was the league’s offensive player of the year, and is second in rushing this season with 1,203 yards and 15 touchdowns. He was held to 28 yards on 11 carries by the Bears on Sunday. That was his lowest rushing total since his rookie season.
For whatever reason, the Rams aren’t running the ball nearly as much as they did earlier in the season. They have a 32.5 run percentage in their last five games, compared to 48.4 in their first eight.
The Eagles are 28th in opponent rush average (4.9). Last weekend, they gave up 5.9 yards per carry to Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys in the first half, but held them to 2.7 in the second half. Thirteen of the Cowboys’ 22 second-half carries gained 3 or fewer yards. First down has been a problem for the Eagles. In their last eight games, they’ve allowed a league-worst 6.42 yards per carry on first down.

EDGE: Rams

When Rams throw the ball

Jared Goff’s passer rating (101.2) is just a point below Wentz’s. He’s fourth in yards per attempt (8.59) and eighth in touchdowns (27). Goff had four interceptions and no TDs and completed just 45.5 percent of his passes in Sunday’s 15-6 loss to the Bears. The week before vs. Detroit, he completed just 51.5 percent of his attempts. He has completed just 7 of 17 third-down passes in the last two games.
The loss of productive slot receiver Cooper Kupp (knee) was a big blow to the Rams, who use “11’’ personnel almost exclusively. Robert Woods, who leads the team in receptions with 71, has been taking most of the slot snaps, with Brandin Cooks (66 catches, 15.9 yards per catch) and Josh Reynolds on the outside.
Gurley is one of the league’s top pass-catching RBs. He is averaging 10.3 yards per catch, with 49 receptions. The Eagles’ injury woes in the secondary are well-documented. Their front four must get pressure on Goff, but their stamina will be tested by the Rams’ frequent use of tempo, which restricts substitutions.

EDGE: Rams

Special teams

Jake Elliott has made 20 of 24 FG attempts, including 11 of his last 12, but had a costly PAT miss in Sunday’s OT loss to Dallas. P Cam Johnston is second in the league in both gross (48.4) and net (42.9) average. He has put 10 of his last 18 attempts inside the 20. Darren Sproles has averaged 8.1 yards on seven punt returns since returning from injury. With Corey Clement, Shelton Gibson likely will handle kick returns.
The Eagles are sixth in punt coverage (6.5) and 24th in kickoff coverage (23.7). But just 14 of Elliott’s kickoffs have been returned, fourth fewest in the league.
Rams PK Greg Zuerlein has missed just three of 24 FG attempts. He’s made 9 of 11 from 50-plus yards the last two seasons. Johnny Hekker is one of the league’s top punters. He’s had just 10 of 35 punts returned. PR JoJo Natson, who averaged just 2.4 yards per return with the Jets last season, is averaging 12.3 this year with the Rams. Their coverage teams have struggled. They’re tied for 24th in punt coverage (9.0) and 22nd in kickoff coverage (23.5).

EDGE: Even

Intangibles

Foles hasn’t played since Week 2. A rusty quarterback in a must-win game never is a good thing. The Eagles are last in the league in first-quarter scoring with just 28 points. The Rams are fourth with 77. Jared Goff has a 115.9 first-quarter passer rating with six TDs, one interception, and a 73.4 completion percentage. So the Eagles had better be ready to rumble. Oh, and the Rams are 6-0 at home and averaging 37.7 points.

EDGE: Rams

Prediction

Rams 37, Eagles 20

Key matchups

Eagles LG Isaac Seumalo vs. Aaron Donald: Donald is the best interior lineman in the league. Seumalo has his work cut out. ADVANTAGE: Rams

Eagles CBs Rasul Douglas, De’Vante Bausby and Cre’Von LeBlanc vs. Rams WRs Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds: Douglas is coming off a solid game against the Cowboys. The Eagles need to keep the Rams’ receivers in front of them and limit the YAC. ADVANTAGE: Rams

Eagles TEs Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert vs. LB Cory Littleton and S John Johnson: The Eagles used “12” personnel on more than half their snaps vs. the Cowboys. Ertz is third in the league in receptions. ADVANTAGE: Eagles

Three keys

Be better on third down: The Eagles converted just 1 of 9 third-down opportunities vs. Dallas and allowed the Cowboys to convert 10 of their 19 third downs. That can’t happen against the Rams.

Dust off the RPOs: Nick Foles was very successful with RPOs during the playoffs last year. They haven’t used them as much with Carson Wentz at quarterback. But they could help the Eagles and Foles neutralize Donald and Suh.

Early to Gurley: Last week, Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys averaged 5.9 yards per carry in the first half, but only 2.7 in the second half. The Eagles can’t afford to spot Todd Gurley two quarters before they slow him.

Inside Rams’ blocking woes and the frank film review to get back on track

Vincent Bonsignore

https://theathletic.com/711205/2018/12/13/inside-rams-blocking-woes-and-the-frank-film-review-to-get-back-on-track/

To​ illustrate the Rams’​ offensive line struggles​ on​ Sunday night​ in​ Chicago —​ and​ the​ ripple​ effect it caused​ on everything​​ from Jared Goff’s performance to Todd Gurley’s running to the play calling of Sean McVay — we offer Exhibit A.

First of many pic.twitter.com/0oEBvNWh33

— Quan (@RoquanSmith1) December 10, 2018

The Rams had just forced a Bears punt early in the second quarter and faced a first-and-20 at their own 10-yard line after Brandin Cooks was flagged for 10 yards for an illegal block.
The Rams opted to go with an “11” personnel look (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers) with Gurley lined up in the backfield alongside Goff, tight end Gerald Everett as an H-back just to the right of tackle Rob Havenstein, two wide receivers flanked out to the left and one wide receiver to the right. The Bears countered with a four-man front with three defensive linemen in three-point stances and edge rusher Aaron Lynch in an upright position just off Havenstein’s right shoulder.
What Chicago did next showed how confident it was in getting pressure on Goff with just four pass rushers against five blockers. At the snap of the ball, the Bears dropped seven men into pass coverage — including linebackers Khalil Mack, Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan — to give them an immediate numbers advantage against what was supposed to be five Rams receivers.
Goff, lined up in the shotgun, initially looked to his right, where Everett was in a seemingly favorable one-on-one matchup against Trevathan, and Josh Reynolds faced cornerback Kyle Fuller. But Trevathan was up to the challenge and ran stride for stride with Everett, while Fuller, with help from safety Adrian Amos Jr., blanketed Reynolds. Meanwhile, Gurley, who was supposed to float to the middle flat, got tripped up trying to get there by defensive linemen Bilal Nichols and Akiem Hicks, negating him as a target.
That forced Goff to turn to his left, where Brandin Cooks ran a pattern up the sideline against cornerback Prince Amukamara and slot receiver Robert Woods worked a 20-yard inside route against Mack and then Smith. Behind them was safety Eddie Jackson.
Basically, it was two receivers against four defenders.
Woods found open space sitting between Smith and Jackson, and Goff immediately recognized him as a viable target. Granted, he needed to drop a perfectly thrown ball just over Smith but with enough zip to get it to Woods before Jackson could swoop in and break it up. But it was a throw Goff has made plenty of times this season.
Only this time, Goff had to work fast due to Lynch and defensive end Jonathan Bullard creating major heat off the edge and Hicks and Nichols pushing hard from the inside. And this proved to be the real key to the play.
The Bears’ four-man rush, as it often did in Chicago’s 15-6 victory, won its battle against the Rams’ five-man offensive line. And just as Goff wound up to throw and release, Bullard pushed left tackle Andrew Whitworth into Goff to knock him off stride. The result was an underthrown floater that fell into the waiting arms of Smith for an easy interception.
In that one play, the Rams’ rough night was essentially summed up.
Their inability to deal with a four-man pass rush allowed the Bears to devote maximum defenders to pass coverage. That created a double whammy for Goff, who had neither the time or the space to work with. And the failure to deal with Chicago’s defensive front in the run game meant little room for Gurley to work with and, as a result, Rams head coach Sean McVay all but abandoned the run as an option.
“Anytime you have a game like that, especially as a unit, you want to get out there and get that taste out of your mouth as fast as possible,” Rams right guard Austin Blythe told The Athletic. “We’re itching to get back out there.”
“Like anything else, we’ll learn from it,” McVay said. “Our guys will respond to it the right way.”

If the Rams do, it will go a long way toward proving Sunday night’s loss was a one-game blip against a very good defense executing a brilliant game plan while being spurred on by a frenzied home crowd at Soldier Field. If they don’t, Chicago may have created a blueprint on how to severely slow down the Rams’ high-powered offense.
We can talk all we want about Goff laboring through his worst game under McVay while completing just 20 of 44 passes for 180 yards and a season-high four interceptions. And we can point the same harsh finger McVay directed at himself for straying from the run too quickly to essentially render his Rams a one-dimensional offense and for putting his offense in unfavorable positions with his play calling. While we’re at it, we can place some of the blame on the receivers for not winning their one-on-one battles often enough to make themselves better targets in the passing game.
All are valid explanations for the Rams going through an entire game without scoring a touchdown for the first time since the last game of the 2016 season.
“It’s really about all 11 and we got to do a good job. Starting with the coaches, putting our players in positions, giving them clarity, asking them – making sure that they know exactly how we want to get the things done that we’re trying to execute,” McVay said. “And then it’s about everybody playing within the timing, the rhythm of whatever that specific play is and the ball coming out and guys separating in that time.”
All true.
But above all else, the Rams’ troubles on Sunday night — and really the last two games if you count their sluggish offensive performance against the Detroit Lions a week before — are the result of a two-week slippage by an offensive line that was grading out as one of the best in the NFL up until two weeks ago. The dismal performance in Chicago saw the O-line, on Goff’s 43 pass drops, allow 23 pressures, 17 quarterback hurries, four quarterback hits and two of the Bears’ three sacks.
It was a nightmare performance. And the Rams had to re-live it on Wednesday during a frank and enlightening film review conducted by offensive line coach Aaron Kromer. The rough start to the offensive line’s work week was necessary for the unit to move forward.
“If you asked a guy individually, I guarantee they’d tell you, ‘We learned a lot coming out of that game,’ ” Kromer said. “I think it’s going to help us in the long run. It’s going to make us stronger. It’s going to make us play better in these games to come.”
And as his players re-watched the horror, two things became obvious.
“It’s never as good as you think and it’s never as bad as you think,” Rams left guard Rodger Saffold told The Athletic.
“(The Bears) are a fantastc (defensive) front, one of the best fronts in the league,” Blythe told The Athletic. “But at the end of the day, as an offensive lineman, you fall back on your technique and fundamentals, and I don’t think we did a great job at that as a unit. That was a huge focus in film: concentrating on what we can control as far as technique and fundamentals go and we’ll be all right.”
According to some of the players who were present in the film review, Kromer made it a point to highlight the positive as well as the negative. There were lessons to be gleaned from both ends of that spectrum.
“The good thing about coach Kromer is that he looks at the good and the bad,” Saffold told The Athletic. “So he also pointed out the great things that we did and that made people feel a little better about the film.”
Upon reviewing the tape, it was obvious to Kromer — and his linemen — that players were getting consumed with the moment and trying to do too much to deal with it.
“When you’re in the heat of a game, especially emotionally, you do extra to try and make things happen and you put yourself in bad situations,” Saffold said.
Among them: Staying on a block too long and not recognizing or switching off quickly enough onto a rusher you are responsible for blocking. Also, getting out of position while in your stance trying to brace for the speed of a rusher, only to get caught leaning and losing leverage.
“Which will get you beat,” Saffold added.
“I think what you learned is, when adversity hits at times, to go back to your fundamentals and techniques and not try to do something that’s out of the ordinary,” Kromer said. “Any time you get in a big game, it always comes back to staying calm and understanding exactly what you want to get done.”
The Rams offensive line didn’t do that on Sunday against a Bears defensive front as good as any in the NFL and by far the best it has seen all year. Dealing with that front was always going to be difficult even if the Rams played the perfect game. But they sabotaged themselves by getting caught up in the moment.
And as they reconvened on Wednesday in preparation for the Philadelphia Eagles, the focus was on getting back to their roots.
“Just know that we’ve been taught the right way and to fall back on your technique and fundamentals,” Blythe said. “We’ll focus on that this week in practice and things will work out as they have for us playing as a unit and playing together. It’ll be all right.”
McVay won’t allow the Rams to dwell on Sunday night’s mishaps.
“We want to be solution-oriented and if we do that, then we can have an eyes up, moving forward mentality,” McVay said. “We don’t want to allow previous things that didn’t work out in our manner, to affect our ability to respond, be in the
present and focus on getting better. That’s one of the things I think is important. We talk about it all the time, not allowing the past to hijack your ability to move forward, but you don’t want to avoid it.
“We’re not going to make excuses, but sometimes these setbacks, like we said, are great opportunities to respond. You can
really show a lot more when you do go through some adversity than when everything always works out in your favor.”
The Rams could face Chicago again in the playoffs. And every other potential postseason opponent now has access to the same exact film the Rams reviewed on Wednesday.
That could be a problem.

Turnover margin per game (aka general starting point for "winning football")#DaBears #Seahawks #LARams #Texans #Browns #BroncosCountry #FinsUp #GoSaints #GoPats #HTTr #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/xXNGcDTsMP

— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) December 12, 2018

Aaron Donald continues to be the most dominant defensive player in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/WWZ1TlrKeq

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) December 7, 2018

David J. Chao, MD@ProFootballDoc
Back spasm, soreness, tightness early/mid week does not equate to out for Sunday (and definitely doesn’t explain rumors of out for year). This is either media hysteria or there is more to the injury story.

Rich Hammond@Rich_Hammond
Eagles coach Doug Pederson, on conference call with L.A. reporters, declined to comment further on reports that Carson Wentz (back) might not play against Rams. Won’t practice toda

Seven winless starts as a rookie? Jared Goff didn't waver on himself. Now, he's got the Rams ready for a deep playoff run. A look with @Tim_McManus at Goff and Carson Wentz, No. 1 & 2 picks in 2016, who meet again Sunday. https://t.co/3vKmgzkkoW

— Lindsey Thiry (@LindseyThiry) December 11, 2018

Next up for the Rams… The Philadelphia Eagles and their offense, which has had a rocky season: https://t.co/xAYRawoADF

— Rich Hammond (@Rich_Hammond) December 11, 2018

baraw

Rarely do teams win both of back to back road games.

I believe it is almost never that a team wins back to back road games 2x in the same season (rams played 3 road games in a row earlier this year and won all 3).

Additionally, west coast teams traveling east tend to perform poorly, or below expectations.

Now, if you look at back to back, both traveling east, 2nd time with multiple road games in a season, if they would have won against the bears it would have been a crazy statistical anomaly.

None of that is an excuse, but it is interesting.

zn wrote:

On the strip sack that Ebukam recovered, he hurts himself through the air outstretched, with his feet off the ground and his body doggone near parallel to the field.

Billy_T wrote:

And that bending the laws of physics you mention?

In case people think I am exaggerating. Pics in this thread: http://theramshuddle.com/topic/donald-wins-sports-illustrateds-performer-of-the-year-award/#post-95093

Vincent Bonsignore@VinnyBonsignore
#Rams offense consistently lost individual matchups @ Chi. It didn’t just create constant pressure on him – which led to bad/rushed/tentative throws – it also meant WR’s, TE’s, Gurley being well covered. Not a lot of time to throw, never real comfortable in pocket, small windows.

It takes a very specifically built defense to do what the #Bears did last night. And even at that, it requires near perfect execution and some uncharacteristic mistakes/play by the #Rams. That said, it’s on the Rams to move on from this loss and show it was a one-time blip

On the other hand: In spite of four turnovers #Rams defense gave up just 13 points.

J.B. Long@JB_Long
Last four Super Bowl Champions failed to score a TD in one regular season game:

2017 Eagles – Wk17, shut out vs DAL
2016 Patriots – Wk4, shut out vs BUF
2015 Broncos – Wk14, vs OAK
2014 Patriots – Wk17, vs BUF

Marcus Peters@marcuspeters
Keep the focus.

==

Respect between the league's best: @AaronDonald97 x @52Mack_ #LARvsCHI pic.twitter.com/TMO5bnyrG2

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2018

#Bears OLB Khalil Mack used the inside move multiple times last night. Beats a double-team here. And gets the strip. @NFLMatchup pic.twitter.com/JDt3ifD7Ff

— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) December 10, 2018

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics: http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-41048198-4

the Bears held Aaron Donald to his lowest pass rush win rate game of the season (18%) on Sunday. Donald entered the day with season PRWR of 43% — best among all qualified pass rushers. Bears left guard James Daniels was Donald’s most frequent primary blocker in the game, and he held Donald to a 17% PRWR when that was the case. Overall, the Rams were held to a season-low pass rush win rate of 28%. They entered Week 14 with the third-highest team PRWR of 61%. PRWR is an ESPN metric that uses NFL Next Gen Stats.