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Also loved Bulger’s comeback against San Diego.
Any Given Sunday: Rams Over Seahawks
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/any-given-sunday/2017/any-given-sunday-rams-over-seahawks
The Seahawks have been one of the most frequent teams to grace this column over the past few years, perhaps in large part due to the value Las Vegas places on their home-field advantage. The Jeff Fisher-era Rams were frequent tormentors (see 2012, 2014, and 2016). That is about all these current editions of the Rams and Seahawks have in common with their pre-2017 selves.
The Jeff Fisher Rams would have hung with the Seahawks by playing great defense, having Johnny Hekker throw a fake-punt touchdown, and annoyingly winning 20-17 while hitting a Seattle skill position player after the whistle every other down. They weren’t a great team, they were just a team of ruffians that could keep things close.
This Rams team dispensed with all that and proceeded to toy with the Seahawks for four quarters, dismantling their season and baring their issues for all to see. The result sent the Rams leaping into the running for one of the best teams in the history of DVOA.
Best DVOA Through Week 15, 1989-2017
YEAR TEAM W-L DVOA
1991 WAS 13-1 57.3%
2007 NE 14-0 56.3%
2013 SEA 12-2 40.4%
1995 SF 10-4 40.4%
2010 NE 12-2 40.1%
2012 NE 10-4 39.8%
2004 PIT 13-1 39.7%
1999 STL 12-2 38.9%
2005 IND 13-1 38.5%
2012 SEA 9-5 38.5%
1996 GB 11-3 38.1%
2017 LARM 10-4 38.0%
2004 PHI 13-1 37.4%
2012 DEN 11-3 37.2%
1998 DEN 13-1 37.1%But we’ll talk plenty about the Rams. Let’s talk about why Seattle lost this game by the margin that they did, which was the real surprise.
Seattle fumbled three times, and Los Angeles fumbled twice. Seattle recovered one of those five fumbles. More importantly, Russell Wilson was hit early and often. The Rams landed seven sacks and 10 quarterback hits. Even when they didn’t hit Wilson, he was often running for his life. And, when given a clean pocket, his deep ball was not clicking.
Seattle went 1-for-8 throwing deep, and the one completion was to running back J.D. McKissic. Another would-be completion to Tanner McEvoy was called back because Wilson wandered beyond the line of scrimmage before throwing it. It was a clunky game for the signal-caller, who probably wandered out of MVP consideration by not being able to carry the offense here.
At the same time, Seattle’s other two bugaboos have been injuries and an inability to run. Both showed up here. Seattle managed 39 yards on 12 non-quarterback carries, and Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner got into a public dispute over whether Wagner was healthy enough to play.
Wagner left after the outcome of the game was no longer in doubt, while linebacker K.J. Wright missed the game entirely. Corner Richard Sherman was out. Kam Chancellor was out. This Seattle defense isn’t easy to exploit, even with those guys gone, but the depth concerns showed up as the Rams were able to put this one away on the ground.Seattle’s still a good team, and still has a chance to make the playoffs. A 10-6 record would get it done in a normal year. But they have put themselves at the mercy of the rest of the league after a two-week stretch where they were eaten up by the Jaguars and Rams. The problems this team has have been evident. At one point, solutions looked like they might be in place, but Seattle hasn’t been able to get off the ground.
Where the Game Swung
Here are the five plays that swung this game the most, using EdjSports’ Game Winning Chance:
Pharoh Cooper’s punt return to the Seattle 1-yard line cost Seattle 8.3 percent GWC. This set up L.A.’s second touchdown. (25.8 percent to 17.5 percent)
Seattle’s fumble on their first drive, when Tanner McEvoy coughed it up on what would have been a third-down conversion, cost them 7.1 percent GWC. (45.2 percent to 38.1 percent)
Russell Wilson’s fumble when they had the ball at midfield cost 3.6 percent GWC. (6.4 percent to 2.8 percent)
When Russell Wilson got sacked on third down on their second drive, they lost 3.3 percent GWC. (37.3 percent to 34.0 percent)
Seattle gained 2.6 percent when they intercepted Jared Goff in the second quarter. (11.2 percent to 13.8 percent)
The game, obviously, was pretty much over by the middle of the second quarter. It’s still worth pointing out how Cooper’s punt return changed the game. The Rams had struggled on their first two red zone journeys, and Cooper set them up with first-and-goal from the 1.
By the VOA
DVOA OFF DEF ST TOT
LARM 3.9% -64.5% 27.4% 95.9%
SEA -56.1% -6.0% -25.3% -75.4%
VOA OFF DEF ST TOT
LARM 3.7% -64.0% 27.4% 95.2%
SEA -77.1% 6.4% -25.3% -108.8%This was the third-best single game DVOA of the season, behind only Jacksonville-Baltimore (104.9% for the Jaguars) and New Orleans-Carolina (99.7% for the Saints), both in Week 3.
The Rams, It Turns Out, Are Good at Defense and Special Teams
Way back in August, we posted our DVOA season predictions. We still had the Seahawks as our favorites in the NFC West, but we also had the Rams far, far higher than Vegas season over/unders or any other major media outlet that does a season forecast. There are a number of reasons why our projections defied Vegas, most of them based around Wade Phillips’ history of turning around defenses in a hurry. Phillips’ defenses have improved in his first year with a new team by an average of minus-18.3% DVOA.
Our projections for Los Angeles had them with a -6.8% DVOA on defense and a 3.8% DVOA on special teams, second-best in both categories. They’ve actually been better at both of those: -14.3% DVOA on defense, and 9.3% DVOA on special teams. The rankings were close to dead-on, though: the Rams are third in defensive DVOA and second in special teams DVOA.
But the reason the Rams have become a potential No. 1 seed and not just a fringe playoff contender isn’t the defense and special teams. We projected the Rams with the 29th-ranked offense, and instead they are sixth. You may have heard about Sean McVay’s offensive turnaround, as we are hardly the only outlet to cover it. (I like Doug Farrar’s view from the preseason, where he pointed out a lot of the basic things that McVay did to the offense.) Stealing Andrew Whitworth away from a Bengals team that didn’t understand his value was also helpful.But it must be pointed out that McVay’s passing offense is streaky, and that this game was another data point in favor of that. The Rams have five single games with a pass offense DVOA of 50% or higher. They now, after this game, have four games with a pass offense DVOA of 10% or lower. Both games against Seattle and Arizona have had the Rams with four of their five lowest pass offense DVOA ratings of the season.
Los Angeles’ Passing Numbers in Their Worst Games
Weeks 2, 5, 7, 13, 15 Other
Short Passing 17.5% (21st) 62.7% (1st)
Long Passing 24.5% (25th) 168.8% (3rd)The drop-off is pretty ridiculous in both phases.
Jared Goff has been reined in fairly well by McVay, but there are still times where the quarterback looks uncertain of his first read. And while Goff now is better at recognizing when he’s under pressure and throwing the ball away for a zero-yard gain, he’s still not going to create much outside of the structure of the play. Goff spent a lot of the early part of this game throwing balls away under pressure.
Los Angeles is obviously a threat to anyone with how they can win in all three phases of the game, but it’s worth thinking about how exploitable Goff is if his division is so keyed into him already. McVay can scheme around and create the easy yards, but Goff isn’t the elevator of this offense, he’s merely the driver.
Will that hurt them in the playoffs if none of their division rivals make it? Who knows. But if you’re building an attack plan to run down this team, it probably starts with forcing Goff to think and asking the Los Angeles defense to stop the run (20th in run defense DVOA) rather than the pass.
I will, soon.
Look for it.
Yay!
Though…measure “soon” in days, not hours or minutes.
stlramz wrote:
A Fans View From Seattle
October 10, 2004, I just had to share what I was feeling. I had earlier sat through 3.5 quarters of a serious beat down in Seattle – the score 27-10 seahawks with a little over 5 minutes to play
I was catching flack from everyone around me, laughter, pointing, shouts of “SCOREBOARD!”, the lame SEA – Haaawks chant.
Being the hardcore fan that I am. I sat and took it. The fans were relentless.
Then something amazing happened.
With 5:12 seconds to play, the Rams mounted what would then be the 2nd greatest comeback in NFL history stealing the victory in overtime when Shawn McDonald caught a 52 yard pass from Bulger just minutes into overtime.
The piñata with the Ram hat sitting amongst these fans for 3 hours suddenly became their worst nightmare. Never had more smack run from my mouth then occurred that beautiful afternoon. Verbal abuse spewing from me like a person who had earlier drank a gallon of gutter water from an open sewage in Kabul Afghanistan.
The walk down from the upper deck was amazing. Stunned seahawks fans everywhere, heads shaking, unable to wrap their minds around what had just happened.
There is an image forever etched in my mind after that game. It was of Isaac Bruce, defiantly throwing his helmet on the field and pointing to it.
Three months later I would return (1/8/2005) for an encore in the wildcard round with Cam Cleeland catching a late Bulger pass for a go ahead TD and the Rams stopping the hawks near their own goal line as they furiously tried to send the game in overtime.
I remember DL Bill Kolar running around the field with a broom yelling “SWEEP” as the Rams beat them three times including the wild card round.
Unfortunately, 2004 would be the last spasm of a dying team.
We snuck into the playoffs, stealing a win against the 9-7 seahawks before getting utterly pummeled by Alan Rossum and Michael Vick in ATL, another game I had the unfortunate privilege of attending.
What had been an amazing little run was really the end of an era.
It was the GSOT’s last stand.
But it was over.
The following years, not only was there a changing of the guard, Seattle turned out to be a slaughter pen for the Rams.
I had the misfortune and being at some doozies.
Spags first game a 28-0 debacle. The Sunday night Clipboard Jesus loss for the division and a handful of others.
We slipped into the dark ages.
Seattle would win 13 of the next 14 games.
Seattle was not a fun place to visit and, on top of all that, they acted the role of the bully. The fans talked junk and quickly entered the pantheon of my most hated rival fans.
So this year, when our team finally seemed to turn the corner and we faced the hated Hawks in LA, I was ready to rip this team apart . . . . then disaster!
The way the first game went down in LA to the Seahawks churned up just about every bad feeling there was. 5 trips into the Red zone and get 3 measly points. Todd Gurley reaching to the Pylon only to have Earl Thomas strip it away for a TOUCHBACK, the second time he did that to the Rams in 3 years (He got Benny at the goal line in 2014).
Cooper Kupp’s sickening drop which would have won the game.
It churned some serious hard feelings for us all.
But unlike years past, many here knew it should have been different.
Go back and read the posts here after that Seattle game in LA.
Most Rams fans saw it.
We should have blown those fools out — but instead we got an “L” which, many weeks later for our re-match had us sitting on a possible 7 seed if everything broke bad since Seattle would have a series sweep on us. And since only 6 teams make the playoffs, the notion of a 7 seed was kind of sickening.
But for whatever reason, as I arrived in Seattle, I wasn’t worried.
As we cruised around my kids were fixated on a giant ferris wheel that they absolutely had to ride. As my family and I took the wheel around, you could see Century-Link in the distance.
It looked big and ominous at first.
But then I had to crush it with my fingers!!!! :moon
It was time to inflict some serious pain!
Occasionally, whether it be through divine intervention, hallucination, speculation or just dumb luck, as a fan we are gifted with a vision about something special going to happen. Whether it is foreseeing a pick six coming, a big return or a game which you just KNOW is going a certain way.
That is how I felt about this Seattle game.
I arrived in Seattle with a lot of confidence.
Despite losing a heartbreaker to the Eagles, that game – long term – may have actually paved the way to the big dance. I thought of it as a reverse Trent Green scenario.
Though I think highly of the Vikings and Eagles, I just don’t see former Rams Foles and Keenum leading either team to the big dance.
So during the early morning hours of game day, I watched the players get on the team buses from the Hotel.
The team seemed serious, but loose.
Many of the players acknowledged the handful of fans that were hanging around the Grand Hyatt watching them load up.
Normally, I say a word of encouragement or two. But remained silent.
The scene was subdued. A few police providing security and about 20 onlookers watching wearing ram gear. It was early and quite quiet.
Then I saw Coach McVay get on the bus and take a seat near a window not far from where I was standing.
The windows were tinted so you could only make out outlines of the people.
Coach appeared to be looking out the window.
I couldn’t resist.
“RIP THAT F****ing Crown of their G**da**ed heads COACH!!!
I see the outline of a thumb up in the window.
All was good.
On to the stadium.
When I arrived, I quickly took my place in the tunnel and found my nemeses Robert Larson.
I refer to him as “Bob”
Bob is a HARDCORE seahawks fan.
He wears a Number 1 Jersey with “OUR HOUSE” on the nameplate.
I give Bob a lot of credit. He does his homework. He knows how to push buttons. He sits in the tunnel like I like to and talks smack to the opposing team, their coaches and support staff.
He received a lot of notoriety when he sued a Jets player who had had enough of him and launched a giant snowball at him following a loss in Seattle.
I’ve been talking smack with Bob for years.
I see him and I immediately start in. Normally, I don’t say things unless someone says something to me. Bob is different. I attack Bob.
“Hey Bob, why didn’t they just hand off to Lynch in the Super Bowl man?”
Come on Bob!
“That’s got to hurt still doesn’t it Bob? Not as much as that snowball but really that has to smart still doesn’t it Bob?”
I am always sure to repeat his name at the end of each sentence like Peppermint Patty does with Charlie Brown, calling him “Chuck” at the end of each sentence.
Bob was holding a sign that said, “Rookie Coach, Clueless QB, No Players”. He was yelling and getting the attention of many of the rams players (he is hard to ignore).
I told Bob that I had a sign that said “Rams House” and if he was still there after the game, he could take a picture with my son holding it up.
Bob was about to give a response when I see Coach Carrol moving into ear shot talking to some media type while standing on the white paint of the end zone.
He is about 20 yards away and there are literally hundreds of people milling about on the field. I turn away from Bob while he was getting ready to say something . . . .
I yell in my loudest voice “CHEATER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
Pete Carrol immediately looks up and directly to where the sound was coming from. We lock eyes.
I yell: “How did you know I was talking to you Coach?”
He quickly turns away.
I turn to Bob – “Your cheating coach doesn’t have his head in the game Bob!”
“Could I have gotten to him with a line like that a few years ago Bob!?”
“The Old man, rest his soul is slipping Bob!” (Yes, I was referencing Solazzo from the Godfather talking about Vito Corleone).
“I’ll be here at the end to hear your excuses Bob.” “You stay here in the corner Bob, I’m going to sit in some decent seats”
“See you at the end of the game Bob.”
What unfolded over the next few hours was simply a thing of beauty.
I’ve been to a lot of epic regular season games including one of Ramgator’s top 3 – the 1985 Monday Night Game against SF that we won 27-20.
This immediately reaches that height in my book.
While our offense wasn’t hitting on all cylinders immediately, it was clear from the gate that our Defense was here to play.
After the rams only scored 6 points on their first two offensive trips, the fans still thought they had a chance.
When Pharoh Cooper broke the PR to the 1 yard line and Gurley punched it in to make it 13-0, you could see real bewilderment amongst the 12s.
When the Rams pitched it to Gurley at the end of the first half on 3rd and 20 in an apparent attempt to run out the clock only to see Todd running through a lane that looked like I-5 at 3 AM, you could literally hear GROANS!!!!!!
Then BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOS
It was freaking AWESOME. They were booing them like they were an 0-12 team.
I thought for sure I would be waking up.
34-0.
AT THE HALF!
At half time, normally I stay seated but would I miss the opportunity to strut around the stadium with my ram gear on?
Are you kidding me?
Up I went, walking around in amazement at all the dazed Seahawks fans.
#12 jerseys, walking around like the guy in the Omaha Beach scene in Saving Private Ryan carrying his blown off arm in his hand. Wandering. Confused.
What a Blessing to be at that absolute BEATDOWN of THAT TEAM and THOSE FANS!
The vaunted 12th man started leaving AT HALF TIME!
I heard one guys wife in front of me tell her husband she was going to the bathroom and when she returned they were leaving!
I pretended not to hear and a few minutes after she left, I told my son in a loud voice – “You know, I have a lot of respect for the Seattle fans who are hanging in through this debacle. Those are the real fans. Those phony #12s that are leaving early, they are an embarrassment!”
I said it loud enough for him to hear.
When wifey came back ready to leave, Husband wouldn’t budge.
Husband anchored in and both were forced to watch to the end. All the while Hubby was catching flack from Wife.
What a wonderful day in Seattle!
I don’t know where this season ends, but the rewards keep getting bigger and bigger.
As the clock wound down, I told my son it was time to head back to the tunnel. As I got up, I whispered to Husband – “you did the right thing brother. Makes the winning more fun, I can personally vouch for that.”
So as I walked to the tunnel around the two minute warning to slap high fives with the players and have my son fly his RAMS HOUSE towel with Bob, I noticed that my gate had about an extra six inches of stride to it, I was walking taller – perhaps even gliding or levitating a bit.
The gray skies no longer seemed gray but an interesting metallic color.
The birds which swirled around the stadium appeared to be dancing.
I had no pain, no worries, no regard for the future.
Pure ecstasy.
“Where is BOB!” I shouted when I returned to the tunnel.
To his credit, Bob was there but he was pretty busy taking crap from the Rams players many of whom individually, including Aaron Donald, were stopping to say a word or two back to Bob on the way out.
