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znModeratorWristband 145: Behind The Play That Confused The Patriots and Gave The Eagles The Super Bowl LII Win
Peter King
“We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.”
—American historian Will Durant, interpreting AristotleThe quote is on the grease board above the pristine desk of Eagles coach Doug Pederson.
————————————————-PHILADELPHIA — Saturday morning. Silence, for the first time all week, in the Nova Care Complex offices of the Super Bowl Bowl champion Eagles in this hungover city. Two days ago, the parade happened. “The noise,” offensive coordinator Frank Reich said, smiling at the memory. “From the start of the parade, way down here, to the steps of the art museum, more than two hours, it sounded like a big play just happened in our stadium. The decibel level was that high; it hurt your ears. So we can use a quiet day.”
Three men here were thankful for the serenity—coach Doug Pederson, Reich and wide receivers coach Mike Groh. Pederson particularly, sucking Halls cherry cough drops, looked like he couldn’t wait to disappear. (The Eagles are off this week.) On this morning, the three men gathered to surgically take apart one play, the play that six days earlier finished off the Patriots and gave the Eagles their first Super Bowl title in history.
There is so much about this play—the play that Philadelphians will see on replay and remember precisely where they were watching it, and with whom, forever—that also says so much about modern football:
• The research, involving Bruce Arians, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Shula, Dan Quinn and, surprisingly, the stunning reach of the Pro Football Focusdatabase;
• The spy vs. spy element of the mysterious Patriot undercover scout Ernie Adams versus a crew of little-known coaches, such as the Eagles’ receivers coach, Groh, the son of Al Groh, who succeeded Bill Belichick when he resigned as HC of the NYJ in 2000;
• The strategic mystery of the bunch/stack formations, with the legal pick plays that have become a quiet and defense-disrupting story in the NFL, and used by so many good offensive minds;
• And finally, the understanding that there is no limit to good football ideas. The Eagles used a strange motion on this play call Star motion, a Jet Sweep sort of motion behind the quarterback that they used only 12 previous times in 1,217 plays this season prior to the winning touchdown in the Super Bowl. The Patriots did not handle Star motion well, leaving the middle of the field wide open (big mistake I) and causing two crucial Patriots to bump into each other like a couple of Keystone Kops (big mistake II).
The winning play highlighted so much of what made the Eagles hard to stop in 2017. Fourth quarter, 2:25 left, Philadelphia trailed 33-32. Eagles ball, third-and-seven at the New England 11.
“Nick!” Pederson said into quarterback Nick Foles’ helmet. “Wristband 145. Wristband 145!”
Foles wears a wristband with the Eagles’ play sheet for the day on it. In the Super Bowl, the wristband had 194 plays in tiny agate type. Pederson scanned all his possible third-down calls and found one he’d liked for weeks … number 145, a triple-bunch formation clustered to the right, a speedy back in Star motion, and tight end Zach Ertz alone at the left of the formation.
Foles looked at the wristband and found play 145. With the play clock running, Foles said to his huddle: “Gun trey left, open buster star motion … 383 X follow Y slant.”
They broke the huddle.
The strangest thing here is that the Patriots—the peerless Patriots, with the greatest coach of our day, and the research power of 10 teams combined in the beautiful mind of Adams—erred significantly on it. What did I learn from studying the winning Super Bowl play?
It’s fine to put Bill Belichick on the Mount Rushmore of coaches in the 98-season history of the NFL, because he truly deserves it. But it does not mean that the great and powerful Oz doesn’t make mistakes. And Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia made a mistake here. You can hear it on NFL Films, from the wiring of the game: “Third-down here. We’re gonna have to double 86.”
Though the play started with a possible double-coverage plan for 86, who is tight end Zach Ertz, that was eliminated when the deep safety followed the Eagle back in motion. (Seen here http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-turning-point/0ap3000000915365/Zach-Ertz-delivers-in-the-red-zone-to-put-the-Eagles-on-top-late-NFL-Turning-Point ) So the Patriots did not double 86. How does Patricia’s communication not get to the field on the biggest play of the season—or how do the Patriots not account for the real possibility of the safety vacating his space to follow a motion man? That’s something the Patriots could be haunted by, the way they’ve haunted so many teams since the turn of the century.
One more plot-thickening thing about Play 145. When the Eagles got on the plane for Minneapolis seven days before Super Bowl, Pederson had his working play sheet that had been established for the week of practice back in Philadelphia. It was the most important sheet he’d use in his life, the sheet he’d mine to try to beat the great Belichick in Super Bowl 52.
But 383 X follow Y slant was nowhere to be seen. It was not in the game plan.
All season, every week, every offensive coach on the Eagles had an assignment: find a play or plays better than those on Pederson’s play sheet. So Groh, along with all the coaches, went to work. In a lonely room at the Radisson Blu Hotel at the Mall of America halfway across the country, Groh dove in one more time, on stacks-and-bunches plays and all others he thought might be valuable, to see if he could find one great third-down call that beat any of the third-down calls on Pederson’s play sheet.
For the 22nd straight Monday of the 2017 NFL season, Groh looked for a better way, a better play.
——————————————————This week-after-the-Super Bowl column is always one of my favorite MMQBs of the season. Going back to Eli Manning dissecting the impossibly beautiful throw to Mario Manningham to help beat the Patriots six years ago, to Tom Brady’s play-by-play of the Super Bowl comeback last year, it’s the column of the season that usually allows me to dive deepest into the whys of what we’ve seen in the biggest game of the year.
After the Super Bowl, I kept thinking, even with the surprising Malcolm Butler benching, how amazing it was that this previously unheralded coaching staff, with the previously unheralded quarterback, sliced and diced a defense orchestrated by Belichick and Patricia that was on the stingiest run in football entering the championship game.
Since its shaky 2-2 start, New England tightened up on defense, allowing a league-low 14.4 points per game (including playoffs) since Week 5, and going 13-1 since. This should have been Foles’ waterloo. Instead, the 41-33 shredding of the defending champion Patriots confirmed the coaching and play-calling chops of Pederson, the game-planning chops of Reich, and the ascension of Foles into the pantheon of Super Bowl heroes dating back to Max McGee.
My question, then: How’d this happen? Speaking to Pederson before the game and Reich after the game, I knew the lengths to which the Eagles had gone in this game plan, in no small part because of their immense respect for Belichick and the Patriots. Every one of those of 194 plays on the Foles wristband had to had been vetted once, twice, three times, and again, to be sure of its chance to succeed against the defensive mastermind of this generation.
And not just with Pederson, but with Foles. Pederson always asks his quarterback the day before the game if there are plays in the game plan he doesn’t feel comfortable with, or would like not called in the game. Pederson was an NFL quarterback; he knows what it’s like to go to the line to execute a play you don’t believe. To Pederson’s delight, Foles is free with his vetoes.
“How many plays did Nick veto in the Super Bowl game plan?” I asked Pederson on Saturday.
“Zero,” Pederson said.
Pederson, Reich and Groh agreed to meet me in Pederson’s office Saturday morning to unravel the mystery of “Wristband 145.” With the Olympics muted on the TV next to Pederson’s desk (men’s snowboarding on NBC Sports Network), Reich took over.
“Why don’t we run through this tape,” Reich said, taking the coach’s clicker in his hand and pointing to the big screen across from Pederson’s desk, “and Coach and Mike and anybody interject anytime they want. We just put together a tape of how this play happened. It’ll give you an idea of the process we use, and how the staff gets involved.”
A play from Week 2 came up. Eagles at Chiefs. Darren Sproles motioned from deep behind the left guard to his right, behind Carson Wentz. “So this is a unique motion in our offense that we don’t use a ton. [Running backs coach] Duce Staley is the one who every week is on Coach and I, saying, ‘We’ve got to get that motion in.’ Because it’s a tough motion for defenses to handle,” Reich said.
“This is a motion you don’t see other teams do,” Pederson said. “That motion is a great way to get tells. The Patriots do it too, with different motions. Tom Brady wants to see [whether it’s] man or zone.”
The strength of setting the back in motion like this, the Eagles found out, was the quick tell to confirm whether the defense is playing man or zone. If a defender zeroed in on the back and sprinted toward him, the Eagles discovered this season the defense would always be man. If not, zone.
On this play, Wentz saw Kansas City linebacker Ramik Wilson run at Sproles and knew it would be man coverage; at the shotgun snap, Wentz loved the matchup of Sproles on Wilson and quickly zinged a horizontal throw to Sproles, who beat Wilson up the sideline. Gain of 16.
“You know how when you set multiple alarms on your phone to wake up?” Reich said. “We’ll set multiple alarms for the quarterback and give him multiple indicators just to be sure. Maybe he’ll see it’s man because it’s corners-over coverage, but then, like Coach said, if we use this and the linebacker responds like that, it’s, ‘Oh now I’m 100 percent sure it’s man.’”
Another play versus the Chargers. Zone coverage. Bunch formation to the right. Wentz ignored the back and found Torrey Smith out of the bunch up the right seam; Smith dropped what would have been a significant gainer.
Another play versus the Chiefs. The back, Wendell Smallwood, motioned behind Wentz to the left. But no bunch. Ertz used a legal pick from Brent Celek to blur coverage and get free on a cross route. Easy pass for Wentz. Gain of 11.
Reich paused the Ertz completion. “So now we showed you this motion three different times,” Reich said. “One time it went to Sproles. One time it went to Torrey Smith up the seam versus zone, now it’s to Ertz on a crossing route. We hit three different areas of the field with the same motion. So every time we are using the motion for a different reason. And there’s a different pass concept with it every time.”
“The Patriots break down this motion and don’t see you do the same thing,” I said.
“Exactly,” Reich said. “The sample size is too small to figure out what the next move is.”
“The other thing,” Pederson said, “and this is sort of a philosophy that I’ve brought here a little bit. I like to create plays or unique formations and motions like this in multiples of three. You have a drop back pass, you might have a screen, you might have a run, off of the same shift in motion.”
“He’s always preaching that,” Reich said.
Pederson: “Because those are unique things. Teams are too smart on defense. Coordinators are too smart on defense. So they always see that same formation, same motion, and they can scheme it up. Well, what we’ve been able to do, sort of collaboratively here, is to take those same unique formations, shifts and motions and try to do it in multiples of three. This is the off-balance thing we try to create.”
The interesting thing to note here: Coaches can be smart and draw up bright plays. But if they don’t have a Wentz or Foles to pick the right option and deliver the ball accurately, and if they don’t have the speed back to win against linebackers and safeties, and if they don’t have the skilled receivers and tight ends to (sometimes) post up corners and safeties, none of this works. The Eagles have the coaching originality, and the players to execute these chess moves.
Research helps. Bruce Arians is a bunch devotee, with his deep receiving group. When preparing to face the Rams in December, Groh and Reich saw a bunch-right formation with Larry Fitzgerald benefiting from a legal pick out of the bunch on Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson. Fitzgerald was wide open on a post route. Carson Palmer hit him for a gain of 17. Maybe, the Eagles thought, this could be an Alshon Jeffery option out of the bunch. Groh picked it out because the formation fit the Eagles to a T.
Said Reich: “One of the things we asked Mike at the beginning of the year was always look at stacks and bunches. We always feel like stacks and bunches is important to understand how things play out. He is our stacks and bunches guru. We use PFF [Pro Football Focus] to give us a folder of stacks and bunches every week.”
“How many per week?” I asked Groh.
“It varies,” Groh said. “Because sometimes PFF has plays in there that aren’t what we’d call true stacks or bunches, so I fly by those. But it can be 250 plays. I’ll go through that and I cut it up, and I go, ‘Hey, Frank, here’s some things that are interesting.’ Sometimes it’s 10 a week, sometimes it’s 50. Frank filters that out and goes to Coach and gives him a couple, and they kind of move up the flagpole [as possible game plan additions].”
On every one of the plays Reich shows, traffic happens. Legal picks happen. Receivers can block defenders, or legally pick them, within a yard of the line, but any other contact beyond that has to be deemed incidental or the receiver can be flagged.
“We’re trying to create legal traffic,” said Reich.
“It’s the hardest play to defend and officiate,” said Pederson.
“So,” Reich said, “we use this formation a fair amount, so it makes sense to us, it fits our personnel, because now we put Ertz on the backside and we can free-release him. If they put a whole bunch of guys over here where the cluster is, we got Ertz one-on-one on the backside. Doug likes it, and so now we basically put this play in that week. We get to the Rams game and do you remember what happened in the Rams game?
We went up and down the field and we scored a lot of points. We didn’t run this play. We didn’t need it. So this one goes in the inventory. Doug and I will sometimes sit in here and bring up that cumulative list on his thing and it’s on an excel spreadsheet so you can sort it by everything that has been called. It’s just called the cumulative list. It’s by section. Every section that Doug has on his call sheet, there is a cumulative list for that section. So, we can bring up that section and say, what haven’t we run?”
Said Groh: “No idea gets left behind.”
“No good idea gets left behind,” said Reich.
Now on the screen: the divisional playoff game versus Atlanta. Big moment in the game. Eagles ball, third-and-seven, Atlanta 45, fourth quarter, Eagles up 12-10.
Here is the Super Bowl play, with one important difference: no motion.
Ertz wide left, singled by Falcons nickel back Brian Poole … a triangle-bunch to the right, close to the formation … a first-down conversion vital because the Eagles want at least a field goal to make the Falcons have to score a touchdown to win … and Pederson calls the play, for the first time this season—except without motion.
The Falcons dedicated four defenders to the bunch. Poole was alone on Ertz. Safety Ricardo Allen was the center-fielder, which is lucky: As Ertz cut and ran a quick inside slant, Poole slipped, and Ertz was wide open for an 11-yard gain. Allen saved a touchdown. The Eagles get their insurance field goal and won, 15-10.
“Isn’t it interesting that on this play the corner slipped, the same way Devin McCourty slipped in the Super Bowl?” I asked Pederson.
“Certain things you remember,” Pederson said. “Eerily familiar. Is that the word—eerily?”
That’s the one, in retrospect.

A SCREENGRAB FROM NFL FILMS SHOWS THE PLAY UNFOLD, INCLUDING THE TWO PATRIOTS RUNNING INTO EACH OTHER, OPPOSITE THE BUNCH FORMATION. (THE MMQB)Early in the season, Groh picked one bunch formation from a Panthers-Patriots game. On a third-and-nine play from the Carolina 43, the Panthers bunched three receivers to the left, and motioned Christian McCaffrey into the bunch—a smart personnel grouping by Carolina offensive coordinator Mike Shula. At the snap, Pats cornerback Stephon Gilmore, apparently confused, doubles a receiver doing a shallow cross, and leaves Kelvin Benjamin alone up the left seam. Cam Newton hit Benjamin. Gain of 43.
This institutional memory in Super Bowl week hit both Groh and Reich. “We’re like, yeah, they could be having a problem here,” Reich said. “They could have a problem with a four-by-one cluster deal, so now, here’s where all the elements come together for the game-winning play.”
Groh and Reich agreed that a bunch play would definitely be a smart inclusion—and all three men thought splitting out Ertz, as he had against Atlanta, would be smart, as well as the unique motion to the bunch side by the back. This would be a variation of the bunch they’d never run … and, of course, a variation the Patriots hadn’t seen. Groh mined the cluster-route concept, Reich added the running-back motion, Reich and Groh liked splitting out Ertz, Groh brought it to Pederson, and Pederson liked it all.
On Tuesday night, inside the Radisson Blu, the play was added to the game plan, and would be number 145 on Pederson’s Sunday play sheet and Foles’ wristband, the formation first, and the play second:
Gun trey left, open buster star motion … 383 X follow Y slant.
“This is exactly why we keep a databank of plays,” Pederson said. “We took the Kansas City motion with Sproles, we took the Arizona bunch play against the Rams, and then we came back against the Falcons and moved Ertz out and left the back in the backfield, and then we get to this game, we added the motion, and we just put it all together for this specific defense. This play is a result of what we did all season, and what the coaches researched, taking different things from different plays.”
One more pre-game point: “We’re sitting here talking about this during the week,” said Reich, “and we say, if we shift [Corey Clement] out, and if they cover him in man coverage, and if we get Alshon [Jeffery], and Alshon comes out of the bunch like he’s supposed to, the guy who is covering that motion back might actually run into Alshon’s man.”
A few years ago, doing a Bill Belichick profile for Sports Illustrated, I saw Belichick’s football library. At the time, the library was in Belichick’s Massachusetts home; now it’s housed in the library at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, where Belichick grew up. One of the books, Sun Tsu’s “The Art of War,” seemed a curious inclusion. But Belichick was big on military metaphors. In this book, Sun Tsu wrote, “Every battle is won or lost before it’s ever fought.”
Those are the words I thought of watching Reich run the decisive play back and forth Saturday morning.
Said Groh: “Just like in basketball, right? When you isolate and put everybody on one side of the court and you send Kobe over to go do what he does. Same principle. We knew that they were going to overplay the bunch.”
Pederson, on why he picked this play: “I thought right away, down and distance, situation in the game, boom, that’s the one. I know Ertz is matched up one on one, I know we got that motion. Reppin’ it, and reppin’ it and reppin’ it, and knowing where it was at. And then you just pull the trigger in that situation and let our guys go execute.”
Groh to Reich. Reich and Pederson massaging the play. Play to the play sheet. Pederson to Foles. Foles to Ertz. How it played out:
.@NFoles_9 to @ZERTZ_86 for the @Eagles TD!! #SBLII pic.twitter.com/WyaH93hkw2
— NFL (@NFL) February 5, 2018
New England 33, Philadelphia 32, 2:25 left, fourth quarter. Third-and-seven, Eagles’ 12. Foles in shotgun. Ertz up top, alone, on Devin McCourty, playing three yards off. Clement behind Foles, just to his left. Nelson Agholor at the top of a bunch to the right, tight end Trey Burton (Reich: “one of our best guys to create legal traffic”) just behind Agholor to the left, and Jeffery just behind Agholor to the right.
Pre-snap, Clement sprinted behind Foles, and the lone center-fielding safety for New England, Duron Harmon, followed. At the snap, four Patriots rushed, and linebacker Kyle Van Noy stayed in sort of no man’s land at the 12, apparently to spy Foles. Five Patriots minded the four Philly receivers—including an open Clement—to the right.
Just as Ertz made his incut in front of McCourty, Harmon and Gilmore smashed into each other at the four-yard line.
Foles stared at Ertz from the start. He got single coverage.
McCourty slipped. Ertz had a clear half-step on him, running right across the formation.
Foles cocked to throw and, in what no one noticed, came down to about three-quarters delivery, seemingly in mid-motion, to evade the raised arms of Van Noy. “Look at this,” Reich said, running the tape back and forth, seeing Van Noy’s arms go up for the block. “Nick didn’t make that decision when he was about to throw, he’s making that as his arm is right here [with the ball nearly out of his hand], adjusting it at the last split second, to win the Super Bowl.”
The ball hit Ertz in stride. Ertz took one step, two, and got hit in the legs by McCourty and dove for the end zone. Touchdown. The play survived a replay review focusing on the Ertz bobble; he was a runner, ref Gene Steratore ruled, and thus only had to break the plane of the goal line with possession for the play to be a touchdown.
“Cover zero,” Reich said, watching it a few more times. “No one to save the day.”
Pause.
“How many times have you practiced this play, this way?” I wondered.
“Twice,” Reich said.
As for the Patriots’ part in this: Hard to blame McCourty, slip or not. He had to be sure he didn’t overplay the slant, because if McCourty overplayed the slant or incut, Ertz could have run a fade or corner and would have been open, with no help. During the game, as our Andy Benoit discovered after tape study, Patriots front-seven players had dropped into man coverage 10 times; clearly this play should have been the 11th. Rarely on plays like this do the Patriots leave a single defender without help. And with Patricia’s fateful words—“We’re gonna have to double 86 here”—someone blew the coverage or blew communication before the play.
Give credit to the Eagles, though. Even if the Patriots had dropped an extra front-seven player into coverage, Pederson thought it likely that Foles would have chosen Clement, with the Gilmore-Harmon collision, and very likely Clement would have made the seven yards if not the touchdown.
The three men rose, heading for their week off. (Until Reich took the Colts’ head-coaching job Sunday.) Before they parted, Pederson and Reich, without guile, spoke about something every coach on every level of every sport should hear.
“For me,” Pederson said, “this story is simple. I hired these coaches for a reason. I hired Frank as my OC for a reason. This is a collaborative effort. It has never been about one guy, one coach, one player. This is a daunting task for one guy. It’s way too much. I trust these guys to study the tape like they do, and Frank gives out the assignments during the week. Guys know their lanes, they stay in their lanes. If a play fits our personality, offensively, we will try to get it in the game plan somewhere. It’s a credit to our coaches, all of them, that they found the little gems all season.”
“When someone trusts you, that’s the greatest motivator there is,” said Reich. “When you have a head coach who really makes it collaborative, then it motivates guys to work harder, to look longer and look at every third down that the Patriots ran this year.
If it is just coach and I doing that whole thing, maybe that play makes it in, maybe it doesn’t. I don’t know. Maybe we would have saw it, maybe we wouldn’t have. We’ll never know. One of the MO’s of our team the whole year was being unselfish. This was us. I firmly believe that’s why we won the Super Bowl, because it was about us as a team. That starts from the top.”
February 11, 2018 at 8:25 pm in reply to: Why Are Conservatives More Susceptible to Believing Lies? #82749
znModeratorAnalyzing the dynamics of online political news sharing shows that there’s an ideological pattern to who’s spreading the bad stuff. https://t.co/OG4WjVyWDq
— MIT Tech Review (@techreview) February 10, 2018
znModeratorOn @PardonMyTake today, Eagles tackle Lane Johnson said he doesn’t think players like playing for the Patriots. Called them “a fear-based organization.” pic.twitter.com/0gAA7fEEdy
— Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) February 9, 2018
znModeratorColts’ online team folks thought they’d put in a good day’s work, went home, opened a beer…… pic.twitter.com/z16Oy8X6oQ
— Rich Hammond (@Rich_Hammond) February 7, 2018
znModeratorLos Angeles Rams offseason analysis: Quarterbacks
RICH HAMMOND
link: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/02/09/los-angeles-rams-offseason-analysis-quarterbacks/
The NFL’s offseason just started, but for front-office executives, vacation already has ended.
This month, teams will start to cut veterans with bloated contracts, then convene in Indianapolis on Feb. 27 for the league’s scouting combine. The NFL’s free-agent signing period starts in mid-March.
So it’s already time to look ahead. The Rams and Chargers both have a core of players under contract for 2018 but face big decisions. As part of an ongoing series, here’s an in-depth glance at the Rams’ quarterback situation:
…
GRADING 2017
In danger of becoming a top-pick punchline on the level of fellow quarterback JaMarcus Russell, Goff rebounded in his sophomore season and perfectly executed Coach Sean McVay’s offense. Goff took tremendous strides in terms of pocket awareness and decisions with the ball, and impressively spread the ball around among a sizable group of receivers, tight ends and backs.
Goff also appeared more at ease in a leadership role. He’s not an extrovert, but Goff sees to be at ease with his teammates and, most importantly, has developed a tight relationship with McVay.
Goff also did a much better job of taking care of the ball, and had only one game in which he committed multiple turnovers. Goff also played his best down the stretch. In his final five regular-season games, Goff threw 12 touchdowns and three interceptions as the Rams went 4-1 and clinched the division.
Things didn’t end particularly well, as Goff completed only 53.3 percent of his passes (his third-lowest mark of the season) in the playoff loss to Atlanta. GRADE: B+
ANALYZING 2018
Goff made great strides in 2017 but he’s not a finished product. Goff’s biggest improvements can come against the blitz. He’s much better than he was as a rookie, but he still needs to speed up a bit against pressure, particularly when it comes from the outside.
Then there’s the Todd Gurley dilemma. So much of the Rams’ pass offense in 2017 involved getting the ball to Gurley, either on designed routes or check-down plays. In 2018, defenses will game-plan against that — just as Atlanta did in the playoff game — so Goff, McVay and the Rams must find a proper balance with Gurley in the pass game.
At some point, it would be good to see Goff direct a fourth-quarter, field-length drive to win a game, just to show he can do it. Thus far, his ability to lead the Rams from behind hasn’t been shown, but then again, they didn’t trail very often in 2017.
The Rams don’t need to do anything here, in terms of the roster. Mannion, a solid backup, is under contract for one more season. At one point, the Rams might have thought about trading Mannion for a draft pick, but things probably will remain static at this position.
znModeratorA look at the #LARams odds for 2018. pic.twitter.com/3ENUXyCQWy
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) February 8, 2018
znModeratorfrom The 2018 NFL Stability Index
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/2/8/16989146/nfl-stability-index
After a tumultuous season, some of the usual powerhouse franchises have holes to fill and questions to answer … which team is now the most stable in the league?
By Danny KellyChaos is a ladder, or so we’ve been told, and for the NFL’s ambitious, power-hungry non-playoff teams, the 2018 season could provide an extraordinary opportunity to climb up the rungs. It’s not just because of the garden-variety parity drivers we see every year, like the unpredictable draft, the salary cap, or free agency. It’s not just that seven teams are going through head-coaching changes (that’s about average), that another three are under the control of new general managers (that list may grow), or that many more are facing turnover at the coordinator positions.
It’s all those factors combined with the most exciting quarterback carousel in recent memory and the fact a handful of the league’s most stable franchises appear to have developed cracks in their normally rock-solid foundations that creates a formula for uncommon pandemonium in 2018.
This Stability Index is focused primarily on the transition from the 2017 season to 2018 and beyond. This competition does not include the number of division titles, playoff games, or Super Bowls any of these teams have won over the past five or 10 years, it weighs factors that matter most right now: continuity in the front office and the coaching staff, security at the quarterback position, a core nucleus of stars, established schemes, a strong culture, and an identity.
…
7. Los Angeles Rams
L.A. lost offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur to the Titans, but head coach Sean McVay’s still going to be calling plays for an offense that returns quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley, most of the offensive line (center John Sullivan is a free agent), and its top two wideouts, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.
Defensively, L.A. must lock up Aaron Donald for the long term (a no-brainer), and must address the secondary, with cornerbacks Trumaine Johnson and Nickell Robey-Coleman and safety LaMarcus Joyner all set to become free agents. The Rams were the most improved team in 2017—and the foundational pieces are there for their continued ascent into the NFC’s elite.
znModeratorWhat’s your take as far as whom to believe? If we concentrate primarily on the MSM, with regard to the Russia issue . .
What we lack here is posting of and discussion of material by Russian leftists opposed to that regime.
IMO without that we’re not doing everything that needs doing.
Just an opinion.
znModerator
znModeratorThe Russians pretended to be Texans — and the Texans believed them
In early 2016, while researching some of the most popular U.S. secession groups online, I stumbled across one of the Russian-controlled Facebook accounts that were then pulling in Americans by the thousands.
At the time, I was writing on Russia’s relationship with American secessionists from Texas, Hawaii and Puerto Rico. These were people who had hitched flights to Moscow to swap tactics, to offer advice and to find support. They had found succor in the shadow of the Kremlin.
That was how I eventually found my way to the “Heart of Texas” Facebook page (and its @itstimetosecede Twitter feed as well). Heart of Texas soon grew into the most popular Texas secession page on Facebook — one that, at one point in 2016, boasted more followers than the official Texas Democrat and Republican Facebook pages combined. By the time Facebook took the page down recently, it had a quarter of a million followers.
The page started slowly — just a few posts per week. Unlike other secession sites I’d come across, this one never carried any contact information, never identified any of the individuals behind the curtain. Even as it grew, there was nothing to locate it in Texas — or anywhere else, for that matter. It was hard to escape the suspicion that there might be Russian involvement here as well.
There were other oddities about the site. Its organizers had a strangely one-dimensional idea of its subject. They seemed to think, for example, that Texans drank Dr Pepper at all hours: while driving their giant trucks, while flying their Confederate battle flags, while griping about Yankees and liberals and vegetarians.
But Heart of Texas, sadly, was no joke. At one point the page’s organizers even managed to stir up its followers into staging an armed, anti-Islamic protest in Houston. As gradually became clear, this was part of a broader strategy. The sponsors of the page were keen to exacerbate America’s own internal divisions. At certain moments they lent support to Black Lives Matter, while in others they would play to the latent (or obvious) racism of Donald Trump’s base.
By the summer of 2016, other themes began to emerge. Posts began to follow a perceptibly hard-right course, stressing Texas’ status as a “Christian state,” or touting the Second Amendment as a “symbol of freedom … so we would forever be free from any tyranny.” Some of the page’s contributors talked about the need to “keep Texas Texan,” whatever that meant. There was also a generous dollop of conspiracy theory. There were posts about the allegedly unnatural death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia and the supposed federal invasion orders behind the Jade Helm military exercise. Fake Founding Father quotes mingled with anti-Muslim screeds and paeans to Sam Houston. And the number of followers steadily crept into the hundreds of thousands.
Though the site’s authors understood their audience well, there was something off about their writing. The page’s “About” section proclaimed that “Texas’s the land protected by Lord (sic).” Grammatical and spelling glitches were everywhere: “In Love With Texas Shape,” “State Fair of Texas — Has You Already Visited?,” “Always Be Ready for a Texas Size,” “No Hypoclintos in the God Blessed Texas.” (Or take this caption for a photo of country music star George Strait: “Life is not breaths you take, but the moments that take your breth (sic) away.”) Yet the typos never seemed to raise any suspicions in readers’ minds.
Even the page’s calls for an early November protest across the state — part pro-secession, part anti-Clinton — were garbled. One post declared that “we are free citizens of Texas and we’ve had enough of this cheap show on the screen.” The site called on those who showed up to “make photos.”
Heart of Texas chugged on after the election, bringing in tens of thousands of new followers in 2017 who were unbothered by its mangled English, its rank nativism and its calls to break up the United States.
And then, in August, it was gone. Just like that, the most popular Texas secession page on Facebook was revealed to be a Russian front, operated by the notorious Internet Research Agency, with Facebook removing all of the posts from public view. (It’s worth noting that another Instagram account started posting Heart of Texas material as soon as the original Facebook page was taken down.)
Despite its claims of transparency, Facebook has effectively prevented the public from examining these posts and these pages. So far Heart of Texas remains the only example of a Russian account that I and other researchers managed to study in detail before Facebook pulled the rug out from underneath it.
We know that the Russians behind these sites played all of their readers, and especially those who showed up at its protests, for fools. Considering that the number of their combined followers ranged into the millions — with some estimates placing total views potentially in the billions — they’re probably right.
The creators of Heart of Texas not only targeted the sociopolitical tensions within the United States. They also exploited our gullibility, which turned out to be far greater than I could ever have imagined. And by assisting them in this massive lie, Facebook has enabled one of the greatest frauds in recent American history.
znModeratorThe N word still has so much…somethin.
Bad history.
Q: What do you call an african-american who flies a plane?
A: A pilot.
znModeratorI like JOhnson’s and Long’s comments.
Long: you ran your own offense.
Johnson: you’re so dumb you need to hire someone to fly your private plane.Long gets to the point, and Johnson exposes his value system: getting rich at what you do tops everything.
I always thought that what was going on with Bradshaw is that he got put into the redneck stereotype.
Bradshaw is too sensitive IMO. He’s also talked about how Noll treated him.
Now what I don’t want to see is a piece where Bradshaw complains about how much it hurts him that people think he’s too sensitive.
…
znModeratorIts gonna be hard to duplicate the offseason Snead had last year.
There’s lots still to do on this team:
1 Sign Aaron Donald
2 Sign Aaron Donald
3 Sign Aaron Donald
4 Solve the Critical LT no-depth issue
5 Depth at Center
6 Run stopping DT
7 LB, CBProblem with fixing the defense is, this off-season may be all about the OL. Whitworth and Sullivan won’t last forever and the 3 other starters are all FAs after this season. Worst case scenario is that they are actually replacing 5 guys on the OL for the 2019 season.
znModeratorscared of my own political darkness:https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2018/02/scared-of-my-own-thoughts/
Scared of my Own Thoughts 124
11 Feb, 2018 in Uncategorized by craigIn Doha last week I watched on TV an utterly contemptible speech by Theresa May in which she grasped for ideas to shore up the increasingly eroded Establishment control of the political zeitgeist. Yet more pressure would be put on the social media companies to curtail the circulation of unauthorised truths as “fake news”. Disrespectful questioning of the political class will be a new crime of “intimidation of candidates”. The government would look for new ways to boost the unwanted and failing purveyors of the official line by some potential aid to newspapers and their paid liars.
In short I did not merely disagree with what she was saying, I found it an extraordinary example of Orwellian doublespeak in which she even referenced John Stuart Mill and her commitment to freedom of speech as she outlined plans to restrict it further. I found myself viewing this dull, plodding agent of repression as representing a political philosophy which is completely alien to me.
I had a similar epiphany the week before watching the gathering at Davos. I have often been sceptical of the philosophy and motivation of the neo-liberal elite, but I have never before looked at them and seen them as the enemy. Yet after the super wealthy were rewarded for the financial collapse of 2008, by the largest diversion of ordinary people’s money to the rich in human history, as bailouts and QE, the steady but unspectacular economic growth of the ensuing decade has resulted in no significant real wage increases for the working person across the entire developed world, while the wealth of the 1% has more than doubled. There has been a curious but matching phenomenon whereby even the “third sector” representatives at Davos – the heads of universities and charities or the senior presenters from the BBC, for example – are themselves on over £300,000 a year and completely divorced from the lifestyle of working people, due to the abandonment of their institutions to corporate philosophy.
In short, as with Theresa May, I found myself looking at the inhabitants of Davos with utter contempt, as people whose philosophy and lifestyle I detest.
Then a couple of days ago I watched an uncritical BBC report of alleged chemical weapons attacks in Syria based entirely on film provided by the White Helmets, which plainly had zero evidential value. Given that the origins and motivations of the White Helmets are today known to anyone with an internet connection, the continued retailing of this repetitive propaganda is extraordinary. I felt contempt for the BBC journalists who were retailing it. In the last 24 hours Israel has carried out large scale bombing attacks on Syria which are undeniably illegal, and for once has acknowledged them brazenly. There has been very little media reporting of this. In a two sentence report on BBC News as I type, the second sentence was that the attack followed the downing of an Israel fighter, without mentioning that plane was itself illegally attacking Syria. The Israeli statement was given verbatim and no balancing view from Syria was given.
I am not comfortable with thoughts of contempt, disgust or hatred towards anyone. I have always held the view that people are entitled to their political views, and having different views to mine in no way makes you a bad person. I have been known to suggest that anyone who has all the same views as me must be in dubious mental health. I have tried to acknowledge common ground with people where it exists – for example I have always admired David Davis’ commitment to civil liberties. It is not the case that some of my best friends are Tories, but I do have Tory friends.
I was for most of my working life a fully paid up member of the Establishment, and reasonably comfortable with that. Even bad governments do some good. I was a Liberal and fairly well on board with the prescriptions of the party in the time of Charlie Kennedy. I am, I hope, a naturally friendly person and have always considered myself gentle and kind. It is certainly true my political views are driven more by empathy with the suffering than by rigid systems of thought.
I therefore am not comfortable being so stridently opposed to everything that is happening in the UK political mainstream. I am scared by the prospect of being the extremist nutter who mutters on about a worldview entirely at odds with the accepted narrative.
Yet I look at the world with disbelief. I see an economy that gives little opportunity for secure and fulfilling lives to millions of young people. I see the obscene lifestyle of the super rich. And I perceive that, contrary to neo-liberal propaganda, that is not the natural order of things but a direct result of the operation of institutions created by government and their use to channel the flow of wealth to a tiny minority.I marvel at the continuing Ponzi scheme of the UK property market. I see Africa plundered for its commodities and deliberately kept poor.
The panic-inducing correction in the world’s stock markets this week was triggered by news that unemployment was falling rapidly in the USA. That was “bad news” for the markets because it might result in workers getting better pay. There could not be a better illustration of the madness of the system. The world is suffering from a failure of imagination. Corporate ownership structure has developed in certain ways because of social conditions prevailing in the UK and Europe from the 16th century onwards. The development consists of the overlaid accretions of accumulated accidents of history. There is nothing natural or inevitable about current stock market models. The rational alternative – worker ownership of enterprises – is, however, not on any mainstream accepted political agenda.
Jeremy Corbyn and John MacDonnell are doing their best within the awful constraints of the Labour Party they inherited, but their economic proposals are nowhere near the radical change required. In Scotland, the SNP have put in place some commendable but very modest social democratic measures to increase taxes on the wealthy. But the SNP appears to have been seized by crippling timidity on the subject of Independence. There are worrying signs that Sturgeon’s evident lack of serious intent to push for Independence, is finally damping down grassroots activism, including on social media. Meanwhile virtually the entire political class of Europe has united behind the vicious suppression of Catalonia, with peaceful campaigners facing lengthy years as political prisoners. Those events, more than any, crystallise my understanding that a “liberal” political Establishment no longer exists.
In conclusion, either I am barking mad or the world is becoming a much darker place. As the position of the vast majority of people as helots to the super wealthy is further consolidated, the manufacturing of consent by the control of information becomes ever more crucial to the elite. I have never desired to stand outside society barking unheeded warnings. You have probably gathered that the last few months I have been inclined to succumb to the fact that my own life would be more comfortable if I stopped barking. But I shall continue – please feel free to warn me when I get over-bitter.
znModeratorI hate it when the Patz have some kind of crisis. Because it usually leads to “and then they even overcame THAT too.”
znModeratorJimmy Garoppolo’s New Deal: Kyle Shanahan on How the 49ers’ QB Earned His Contract
https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/02/09/jimmy-garoppolo-49ers-contract-kyle-shanahan
When Kyle Shanahan took over as the 49ers’ head coach, it seemed pretty obvious that he would try to get QB Kirk Cousins down the road. So how did San Francisco end up handing Jimmy Garoppolo a massive contract? Shanahan walks us through the timeline.
By ALBERT BREER February 09, 2018
If I told you a year ago that the 49ers would sign a quarterback to a five-year, $137.5 million deal during the 2018 offseason, you wouldn’t need to wire-tap Kyle Shanahan’s office in order to make an educated guess on who that player would be.
Kirk Cousins. Easy, right?
But here’s what you may not know—even after San Francisco dealt a second-round pick to the Patriots for Jimmy Garoppolo on Oct. 30, Shanahan and GM John Lynch had yet to shut the door on the idea of pursuing Cousins. Garoppolo had much to prove over the two months to follow, and the man Shanahan developed in D.C. in 2012 and ’13 lurked as an option if Tom Brady’s backup fell on his face.
“Yeah, of course, it was there,” Shanahan said over the phone early Friday afternoon. “Everyone knows how I feel about Kirk. And for anybody who knows how I feel about Kirk, I think this shows how I feel about Jimmy, the fact that we ended up doing this. I’m not a guy who’s going to get excited and just go with the momentum, at all. I usually do the opposite, question it to make sure I’m absolutely confident, and not go with the momentum or the excitement.
“Talking about Kirk, understanding where he could be in the next year, for me to feel this way about Jimmy? It says a lot about Jimmy.”
Garoppolo’s 5–0 run as the 49ers’ starting quarterback transformed the team. As he, Lynch and Shanahan stood on a stage as the team formally announced the contract on Friday in Santa Clara, it felt like a reception to the football wedding into which the Niners and new quarterback just entered. The new five-year deal sets a new mark for average per year ($27.5 million), and is second in NFL history in two-year ($61.2 million) and three-year ($86.4 million) cashflow.
And in the process, it did what previously seemed highly unlikely—slammed the door shut on the Cousins/Shanahan reunion that some considered a fait accompli from the minute San Francisco named their new coach a year ago.
How did it happened? Shanahan will take you through it.
FEBRUARY 2017
Soon after Shanahan arrived from Atlanta, just after Super Bowl LI, the 49ers held the standard personnel meetings that teams with new regimes hold, during which coaches show scouts what kind of player they’re looking for in each position. Every scout and coach who was in that room remembers the quarterback tape—and that there was a lot of Garoppolo.
“Jimmy was all over it just because of the way he throws,” Shanahan said. “Trying to show what we look for in throwers, and in how they throw the ball, Jimmy’s one of the best examples that I’ve ever seen.”
It wasn’t something that Shanahan had just noticed. Back in 2014, when he was Cleveland’s offensive coordinator and the Browns were vetting quarterbacks, Shanahan studied all the throws that Garoppolo had made at Eastern Illinois (he knew all of the quarterbacks in that draft class back and forth). More recently, he’d pored over tape of Garoppolo’s two starts in New England.
“The balance he has, that he can make any throw with just the torque of his upper body, when it’s like that, that means you don’t have to block perfectly, he doesn’t need much room to throw,” Shanahan said. “He doesn’t really have to hitch into a big throw. He can sit in there flat-footed like a Juggs machine and just shoot it out at any time. And he’s got as quick a release as you imagine.
“He can sit in the pocket and let a play develop and not have to move around a ton, because he can just torque his upper body and do it. [Tony] Romo is a very similar guy, when you paint that picture. Tom Brady is very similar, he’s just slower twitch. Aaron Rodgers is like that. Anybody who torque with their upper body and make these throws, they don’t need the same pocket everyone else does.”
MARCH 2017
When the NFL combine rolled around, the Niners had a grand total of zero quarterbacks on their roster, and so it didn’t need to be said that the most important position on the field was a big need for Lynch and Shanahan when they arrived in Indianapolis. But they were first going to look at the veteran market.
“At that time, the only guys we thought were franchise quarterbacks that were being mentioned were Kirk and Jimmy,” Shanahan said. “And I knew Kirk wasn’t going to be a possibility. And I remember asking Bill [Belichick] personally down at the combine about Jimmy, and very quickly he told me that wasn’t a possibility. So we moved on from that. He told me he wasn’t going to trade him.”
To solve their quarterback problem, Lynch signed Brian Hoyer—Shanahan coached him in Cleveland—as a stopgap at the start of free agency, and drafted C.J. Beathard in the third round of the NFL draft in April. At this point the San Francisco brass was, in essence, conceding that it’s long-term answer at quarterback may not be on the roster for the 2017 season.
“I didn’t know if we’d be able to do it our first year here,” Shanahan said. “I did feel strongly that we’d able to get it done, at least, by time we were going into our second year.”
OCTOBER 2017
I asked Shanahan if there was a holy s–t moment when the call came in from the Patriots on Oct. 30, inquiring if the Niners would be interested in trading for Garoppolo.
“There really was,” he answered. “We were 0–8. We’d just gotten our asses kicked by Philly. I came in on a Monday and that was the last thing I was thinking about. And that ended up popping up. It’s different, because it’s a big deal, we want those draft picks. We know have a ways to go, we want to build this organization the right way. And what worried me was having to decide long-term on a guy in just a few games.”
Shanahan went to Lynch, and Lynch assured Shanahan that the franchise tag would give the Niners flexibility to push the decision for a year. It took a grand total of 10 minutes for the two to decide to accept New England’s proposal, and send their second-round pick to Foxboro for Garoppolo. The plan, at the time, was to give Garoppolo time, with the tag in the Niners’ back pocket as a backup plan.
“He was playing in a system where it’s a completely different language,” Shanahan said. “There was absolutely zero carryover. It’s almost counterproductive from a verbiage standpoint, because it sounds so backwards. He’d get a word he’d heard before that meant something totally different. In the heat of battle, when you’re cramming stuff in, that confuses you when you’re in pocket.”
NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2017
You know the rest—Garoppolo went 5–0, throwing for 1,560 yards and seven touchdowns against five picks, completing 67.4% of his passes. But there were two things that really made Shanahan smitten. First, it was how Garoppolo improved by the week in his knowledge of the offense. And second, it was how he operated when his knowledge of the offense failed him.
“I was worried putting him in, because I knew it was impossible for him to fully be comfortable,” Shanahan said. “But it got to the point where we needed to, and to watch him out there where I knew he wasn’t totally knowing exactly what to do, and see him still succeed and still make some great plays? By no means was it perfect, but I know the situation he was in, everyone could see his talent.
“I knew he was making some plays that just came very natural to him. … He showed that he had a natural feel that you can’t really coach. He was born with it.”
And by the end, he was doing what the great ones do—elevating those around him.
“Our team got a lot healthier, and as he started to play better, our guys started to play better. And everyone rose to the occasion, and we finished strong,” Shanahan said. “Jimmy was a big part of that. The guys around him played totally different at that time than they did earlier in the year, which definitely helped jimmy. And it was enough, surprisingly, I didn’t think it would be, but what we had in those five games, I felt very confident about making a commitment to keep him here long-term.”
FEBRUARY 2018
So now the Niners go into the offseason with around $75 million in cap space—with Garoppolo’s new deal factored in—plus four picks in the first draft’s first three rounds, even after having sent their slotted second-round pick to New England. But maybe the biggest advantage they have is that there’s no need to worry about the quarterback spot anymore.
They have a 26-year-old answer to the question every team is looking to answer, and a 24-year-old backup, in Beathard, with extensive experience having started. And while Garoppolo cost a lot to keep, it sure beats the alternative.
“Everyone wants to talk the numbers. Man, that’s what quarterbacks cost. I don’t even think about the numbers,” Shanahan said. “I look at everything as, ‘Is this a top guy? Is this a guy that has a chance to be one of the better guys in the league?’ And once you believe that, you do whatever it takes to keep him. And that’s what it takes to keep him.”
Oh, and as the Niners figured, Cousins will be available in a few weeks. But after all this, all Shanahan can do for his old protégé now is wish him luck.
That spot everyone had old No. 8 filling a year ago? It’s taken.
znModeratorWhere is my post? I started a thread on this days ago, and somehow it is missing.
I looked for it. I wanted this to be attached to that. But we got flooded by a bot spammer and I took a lot of it out with mass deletes. 1 or 2 good posts got lost in that mayhem. One of mine too. If it was also one of yours, I apologize. That’s a hazard in that situation and I can only promise you I tried to do my best.
znModeratorHere’s one promising stat from Sammy Watkins’ disappointing season
Cameron DaSilva
Here's one promising stat from Sammy Watkins' disappointing season
As much as he helped open up things for other players on offense, Sammy Watkins was a fairly big disappointment for the Rams in 2017. With only 39 catches for 593 yards, he was hardly the No. 1 receiver many fans and analysts expected him to be in his first year in L.A.
Sean McVay and Jared Goff will talk at length about what a great teammate he is and how much his presence helps the rest of the receiving corps, but at some point, he has to produce the way many want him to.
As disappointing as 2017 was for him, there were a few promising stats to take away from his season. One interesting statistic worth noting is Watkins’ reliability in close-quarter catches, or tight-window throws.
According to NextGen Stats, Watkins was the seventh-best receiver in the NFL when it comes to tight-window catches. He afforded a 93.1 passer rating on those throws, making difficult catches with defenders all around him.
However, his placement on this list, especially his wildly impressive 93.1 passer rating when targeted in tight windows, shows that he was quite valuable as a big-play threat in the Rams’ high-scoring offense. While it’s tempting to imagine the free-agent-to-be in a setting where he’d be a more featured piece of a passing game, the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.
Watkins showed he can make contested catches, but he has to be more consistent when it comes to getting separation. On average, he only created 2.5 yards of separation, which ranks toward the bottom of the NFL.
znModeratorWhich franchise is set up to be the next NFL dynasty? 🤔
“The Rams are so young and so talented.” – @KyleBrandt
📺 @gmfb pic.twitter.com/B1ryVoE9KW
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) February 9, 2018
February 10, 2018 at 11:06 am in reply to: Why Are Conservatives More Susceptible to Believing Lies? #82706February 10, 2018 at 10:35 am in reply to: Why Are Conservatives More Susceptible to Believing Lies? #82703
znModeratorThere’s a lot there i agree with.
I’d layer it with other topics though. Like the topic of “growing up in a culture of lies.” Ie, an ever-expanding, ever-evolving ‘corporate-machinery’ has evolved (advertising, PR-firms, Damage-control firms, Psy-ops…etc etc) that simply LIE to people. Various kinds of lies. Yes, conservatives may be more vulnerable to this machinery, but the culture/technology-of-Lies is something that needs to be studied to. Both ends of this ‘system’ need to be examined. The Lying-machine and the victims-of-the-lying-machine. (and the ‘resistence’ to the lying-machine.
w
vBut that doesn’t answer…WHY conservatives tend to accept lies more.
That implies that if the mass media and gov’t institutions were more truthful, would those same conservatives even believe or listen to them?
That is, one’s perceived political interests and values dictate what one believes.
One difference is that leftists tend to value accuracy, honesty, good analysis, and debating information as part of their political interests.
That sounds superficially self-serving but I think it’s a defensible claim.
….
…
znModeratorbtw, i was listening to the car-radio, and someone was questioning the big QB deal. They quoted Garopollo’s stats in his games with the 49ers. And then they quoted Kaepernik’s stats with the 49ers over his last six or seven games with the niners — the stats were almost identical.
w
vYes, but. That radio discussion was based on a fallacy about qb contracts.
Quarterbacks are not directly paid according to their ranked and graded on the field value.
They are paid according to the market.
So it goes like this.
There’s a certain amount you have to pay a qb when he is up for his 2nd contract, and that amount goes up annually. If you don’t pay that amount, someone else will. So you then decide—do I want to hunt for another qb, or pay this one, and keep him as the starter?
It has nothing to do with who he is as good as or better than. IF you determine he is your starter and you don’t want to replace him, you pay what the market that year says you pay starting qbs up for their second contract.
So the question teams ask is not “is he as good as Brees?” The question is “do we want to start over at qb, or not?”
I mean is Carr “worth” more on the field than Wilson? Well Carr gets more than Wilson. Why? Because Wilson signed his deal a few years before Carr, and the market says the price for qbs goes up every year.
Wait till Goff comes up. By they it will be 30 something million. And the Rams won’t be going “is he really worth more than Wilson.” They will be going “do we want to start over at qb cause if we don’t pay this another team will.”
znModeratorNFL pecking order, 1 to 32: How does everyone stack up for 2018?
Elliot Harrison
RANK
1
16-3 EAGLESThese are your newest Super Bowl champs. Awesome stuff. While many folks on Twitter were keeping tabs on Tom Brady’s passing stats and wondering if he would surpass Norm Van Brocklin’s 66-year-old record for passing yards in a game, a strange thing happened. Namely, Nick Foles, who made damn sure Van Brocklin could no longer be called the last Eagles quarterback to walk off the field a champion. Yep, that was in 1960 — that’s how long it’s been since Philly won an NFL title. With Carson Wentz coming back in 2018 and all of the nucleus under contract, this is an easy No. 1.
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15-4 PATRIOTSLast year’s champs fell in one of the greatest Super Bowls of all time. There’s no shame in that. People can hate on Tom Brady all they want, but at the end of the day — rather, the end of his career — those same folks are gonna miss Tom Brady. Other note: If Rob Gronkowski were to hang up the cleats (and plan enough Gronk cruises to put the “Love Boat” to shame), he’d be a Hall of Famer — right now. I don’t care that he’s only played eight seasons, or that he gets hurt, or that he would have walked away at 28. Whatever. The dude is unstoppable in one-on-one situations. Nick Foles was the Super Bowl MVP. Gronk was right behind him. What an effort on Sunday: nine catches, 116 yards and two touchdowns. That’s the best overall day a TE has ever had in the Super Bowl.
Ian Rapoport: Jaguars planning to keep Blake Bortles at QB in 2018
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12-7 JAGUARSToo high for the Jags? False. They have the draft capital and some cap room to rectify the one spot on the team that you were thinking of eight seconds ago when you read the ranking. Their defense is chock-full o’ talent, from stem to stern. As far as free agency goes, wide receiver is the group that presents the most concern. Both Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee are set to hit the open market. Of course, who’s throwing them the ball, or potentially throwing them the ball? That’s the question everyone is underlining this offseason. NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reports that Jacksonville intends to head into 2018 with Blake Bortles as the starter — and that this was the plan regardless of the wrist surgery that could lock in his 2018 contract (which is guaranteed for injury). Alex Smith would have been a nice fit, as many in the Twitterverse pointed out. Obviously that’s not happening. Soon-to-be former Redskins starter Kirk Cousins would be a huge upgrade. Money would be an issue there. So, Bortles?
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12-6 SAINTSThe Saints aren’t going anywhere. Nor is Drew Brees. Put another way, expect New Orleans to be right back in the mix for the NFC crown in 2018, with their 39-year-old quarterback firing the ball to Michael Thomas and whoever else on third down. Moreover, the Saints became the first team to sweep the Rookie of the Year awards (with Alvin Kamara and Marshon Lattimore) since the 1967 Lions (Mel Farr and Lem Barney). Moreover Part II, the Saints have enough cap space to keep who they need to keep. Brees aside, there are no contract-less stars on this team, and there are enough studs on both sides of the ball to make Sean Payton’s group a threat to be in Super Bowl LIII. That’s why the fleur-de-lis is batting cleanup here.
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11-7 FALCONSFor all the Falcons fans who feel their team has been disrespected in this space, making the top five ain’t too shabby, huh? Here’s the deal: The Steelers have limited capital, several needs and a huge question mark at RB1. As for the Vikings, who’s their quarterback? Atlanta, meanwhile, dusted the Rams — in Los Angeles — in the postseason. This will be Year 2 of Steve Sarkisian’s offense, which should work out a helmetful* of kinks. (Though not the issue of all the free agents on the defensive line.)
*I’m talking about the old red helmets with a black falcon emblazoned on the side. Bring ’em back, please.
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13-4 STEELERSThe greatness of Le’Veon Bell aside, would the Steelers be better off not paying him this offseason? Bell has earned a big-money contract — but you can make the case that the money he will command is not worthwhile, given how difficult Pittsburgh’s cap situation is and how much help is needed on defense. Bell will earn somewhere in the mid-teens per year, a huge sum for a position that has been de-emphasized across the NFL. On the other hand, no one in the league touched the football more than Bell last year: 406 times. Usually, but not always, a running back’s first five years — not his next five — are his best. Bell is entering Year 6. That’s what makes the Steelers’ decision process here so fascinating. How far will they go?
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14-4 VIKINGSLike the Steelers, the Vikings face some fascinating choices of grad-school-level difficulty. Case Keenum played as big a role as any other player lifting the Vikings to their first NFC title game since 2009. How much money does Minnesota offer a career journeyman? And we can’t assume that Keenum will be what he’d been before 2017 — i.e., maybe what we saw this year is a player who has turned the corner. Can the organization bail now? The guess here is that Sam Bradford is gone, which seems unfair, given how that Monday nighter in Chicago played out, with a banged-up Bradford making Joe Namath look like Richard Simmons in comparison. Minnesota might be able to retain Teddy Bridgewater without the former first-rounder hitting free agency, based on time spent on the PUP list and whether the one-time franchise quarterback has accrued enough time to qualify as a free agent. That’s a super complicated CBA question for the NFL and NFL Players Association to jazzercise over. Oh, goodie. Can’t wait for that outcome.
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11-6 RAMSFor all intents and purposes, the Rams are in fantastic shape heading into the NFL Scouting Combine, having just pulled off the NFL Honors triple crown. The front office has plenty of cap space with which to fill voids in what could be a challenging follow-up act for Coach of the Year Sean McVay. Aaron Donald will have a much easier time repeating as Defensive Player of the Year if Los Angeles can retain corners Nickell Robey-Coleman and Trumaine Johnson in the secondary. Also set to hit free agency: receiver Sammy Watkins. Maybe he didn’t enjoy Todd Gurley-like productivity, but that doesn’t mean the former Clemson speedster wasn’t impactful. Defenses have to respect him vertically, and for all the reliability of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, they don’t scare defensive coordinators. Before we go, Gurley winning Offensive Player of the Year was awesome. Mainly because he was awesome. His labors in the passing game, where he averaged more yards per catch and caught more touchdowns than any other running back, deserve more praise than a simple sentence here.
znModerator49ers make Jimmy Garoppolo the highest-paid player in NFL with 5-year deal
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/2/8/16991954/jimmy-garoppolo-san-francisco-49ers-contract
February 9, 2018 at 1:46 pm in reply to: first reviewers for Marvel's "Black Panther" are pumped #82351
znModerator5) He is essentially Marvel’s answer to Batman.
Black Panther and Bruce Wayne share a lot more in common than a fondness for pointy ears on their cowls. T’Challa is pretty much Bruce Wayne, except that the Black Panther also has a few superpowers.
6) Like Batman, he can beat down opponents who are much more powerful.
Black Panther always has a plan. He’s renowned as a master tactician, and between his supersmarts and his fighting skill, it means as a hero he can punch above his weight more often that not. He’s single-handedly defeated villains like Doctor Doom, and yes, he’s even gone up against teams of his fellow heroes and handed their super-butts to them easily. Like I said, his first ever appearance was to beat up the Fantastic Four, pretty much for shits and giggles.
That stuff’s basically not true. He’s nothing remotely like Bruce Wayne and also it is very significant in this comparison that unlike Batman he is actually superpowered. Members of the royal line in his world can eat a heart-shaped herb which is poisonous to others. This gives him superhumanly acute senses, enhanced strength, speed, agility, stamina, durability, healing, and reflexes. Essentially he’s a vegan version of Captain America, whose enhanced strength comes from the chemistry of the super-soldier serum.
On top of it his suit is bullet-proof, being made of the same material Cap’s shield is.
If anything he is more like Tony Stark/Ironman, though again, with actually enhanced strength and physical abilities.
The stupid batman comparison just comes from the unimportant fact that both guys wear black costumes.
….
znModeratorThat was due to our laid back coaching style.
Jack…no.
Rams history with very bad OL injuries goes back to 2007.
There are only 3 years out of the last 11 seasons where it was comparatively okay, with the team either suffering minimal OL injuries, or with the team making it through most of the season (13 games) before the OL injuries hit.
Those seasons are 2010, 2013, and 2017.
…
I should add that in one of those 3 seasons–2013–PFF ranked the Rams OL 13th.
The “make up ways in which Fisher is to blame for EVERYTHING” movement notwithstanding.
znModeratorEagles, Rams among teams with biggest Super Bowl windows
By Gil Brandt
The concept of a Super Bowl “window” is somewhat fluid, given the frequency with which playoff teams — even good ones! — turn over from one year to the next. All it takes to throw a seemingly unstoppable juggernaut into disarray is a catastrophic injury here or a personnel misfire there. That said, I thought I’d try to examine which of the 32 teams in the NFL have the biggest identifiable Super Bowl windows — that is, the longest period of Super Bowl contention — from right now moving forward. Each of the teams below should be squarely in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy for the foreseeable future, meaning at least the next two seasons. Teams are ranked from the biggest windows to the smallest.
1) Philadelphia Eagles
Your Super Bowl LII champions are the most solidly built team in the NFL, both on and off the field. Crucial pieces are locked up for the long term, with Fletcher Cox signed through 2022, Lane Johnson, Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery and Tim Jernigan signed through 2021, and Jason Kelce, Vinny Curry and Malcolm Jenkins signed through 2020. And, of course, the Eagles have not one but two quarterbacks capable of competing for a Super Bowl. Even if Carson Wentz’s recovery from an ACL tear delays his start to the 2018 season, we know Nick Foles will be able to keep the ship afloat.Doug Pederson is one of the most underrated head coaches in the NFL. Before the Eagles’ game in Dallas last season, he had his group really relaxed — it was almost like he was running a scrimmage. His staff, including defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, offensive coordinator Frank Reich and quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo, is a strength. The Eagles’ scouting department is as good as anybody’s. Jeffrey Lurie and Howie Roseman have really put together a winning group that will be a force to be reckoned with for some time to come.
2) Los Angeles Rams
It’s hard to do much better than having the Offensive Player of the Year (Todd Gurley), Defensive Player of the Year (Aaron Donald) and Coach of the Year (Sean McVay). Los Angeles is stacked with young talent and a strong coaching staff that also includes Wade Phillips, who is always going to be put together a good defense. Quarterback Jared Goff, meanwhile, will only improve. The Rams are in a similar place to the Eagles, only Goff isn’t quite at Wentz’s level.
3) San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo will lose as a starter in the NFL eventually — it just hasn’t happened yet. The Niners struck gold in their trade for the former Patriots backup, who led them to a five-game winning streak to close out 2017. (This notion was reinforced by the monster contract San Francisco awarded to Garoppolo on Thursday). I also love some of the players on defense. Imagine what these Niners can accomplish after general manager John Lynch has had a chance to add to the roster in his second offseason on the job, especially given the copious amount of cap space they’re projected to enjoy. Kyle Shanahan is an excellent coach, and I think he’ll have San Francisco competing for the Super Bowl in 2018. The window is just cracking open for the Niners, but soon, it’ll swing wide and stay that way for a long time.4) New Orleans Saints
I had breakfast with Drew Brees recently, and he was very high on this team. While we didn’t talk about his contact status, there’s no reason to think he won’t be back under center for the Saints in 2018. Brees might be 39, but last season, he looked like he was about 25. The Saints had an unbelievable 2017 draft, landing top-notch talent at running back (Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara), defensive back (Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Williams) and offensive tackle (Ryan Ramczyk). Michael Thomas is a scary threat at wide receiver, while the defense should only continue to improve under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and assistant Mike Nolan. New Orleans must pay attention to Atlanta in the NFC South, but ultimately, I think the Saints are better than the Falcons and should be in play to win it all for awhile.5) Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a young team with a very good defense anchored by studs like Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. The offense, meanwhile, can definitely move the ball on the ground behind Leonard Fournette. The Jaguars would rank higher if we knew how well Blake Bortles — whom the team is planning to stick with at quarterback for 2018, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport — was going to play. Bortles was dire at times in 2017, but he got better as the season went along and, I think, is ultimately criticized too much. He’s better than the conventional wisdom would have it, and having a fundamentally sound assistant like offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett in his ear will only help Bortles continue to improve.
6) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ spot here is dependent on them bringing Le’Veon Bell back. But they have a history of keeping their own guys in the fold, and I have a feeling they’ll make it work with Bell. Because when Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger are on the field together, Pittsburgh is a powerhouse. Yes, Roethlisberger (35) is older, but he showed in 2017 he can still perform — and news that the team is talking with him about extending his contract beyond the two years remaining is encouraging. Then you have Brown, who legitimately could have won the MVP award last season, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who will be a star in this league, providing a potent receiving threat. The defense could use a few upgrades, especially after losing linebacker Ryan Shazier, and there is the issue of working in a new offensive coordinator. Plus, Mike Tomlin has to find a way to cut through some of the drama that seems to build up around this group. But Pittsburgh should be in pretty good shape for awhile.7) New England Patriots
As long as Tom Brady is playing, the Patriots have a chance to win it all. I’m not sure I’ve ever been as impressed with anybody as I was by Brady in our extended sit-down last week ahead of Super Bowl LII. Don’t lose sight of the fact that, at 40 years old, Brady threw for over 500 yards and three touchdowns without surrendering a single pick or making his team punt once in the Super Bowl — that’s amazing. One of the biggest questions facing this team in the immediate future — how to replace both the offensive and defensive coordinator as Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia decamped for head-coaching jobs — was significantly mitigated by McDaniels’ late decision to spurn the Colts and stay in command of New England’s offense.
It’s hard to see Brady keeping this up for much longer as he edges deeper into his fifth decade on Earth. Common sense suggests 2018 could be the final season of contention for this dynastic run. But at this point, the folly of trying to predict when Brady will hit the wall should be quite clear.
What about the …
… Packers? True, they have Aaron Rodgers — but they’re also dealing with significant upheaval in the front office and on the coaching staff.… Vikings? The defense is a force, but I’m not confident Minnesota will be the same team on offense next year, especially with the quarterback position in flux.
… Falcons? Matt Ryan is coming off a disappointing year, and as I indicated above, I think Atlanta will have its hands full dealing with the Saints in the NFC South.
… Chiefs? Patrick Mahomes has a chance to be good as he takes the reins from Alex Smith, but the defense has some serious holes, even with Eric Berry on his way back from a ruptured Achilles tendon.
… Seahawks? Russell Wilson is great, but the aging defense is a concern. I think that right now, this is a descending team.
znModeratorWell, how can Dungy blame McDaniels and then let Kraft off the hook? Kraft also knew that if he encouraged McD to back out of the Colts deal, the assistants in question would/might be screwed.
w
vOwners are just innocent creatures driven purely and solely by the natural laws of competitive capitalism.
It’s the people they hire under contract—players, coaches—who are accountable for things.
For example it’s wrong for players to demand “obscene” contracts.
But it is fine for owners to profit from obscene tv contacts.
I am surprised by how naive about all this you are, wv.
znModeratorTony Dungy: Josh McDaniels hanging assistants out to dry is indefensible
Michael David Smith
Tony Dungy: Josh McDaniels hanging assistants out to dry is indefensible
Former Colts head coach Tony Dungy is not a fan of Josh McDaniels.
McDaniels spurned the Colts having already told the team that he’d take their head-coaching job and already told assistant coaches they’d have a job on his staff, and Dungy took to Twitter today to denounce McDaniels’ actions.
“I can tell you there is NO excuse big enough to justify this,” Dungy wrote. “It’s one thing to go back on your word to an organization. But having assistant coaches leave jobs to go with you then leave them out to dry is indefensible.”
Dungy said the fact that McDaniels hadn’t signed a contract doesn’t change the fact that McDaniels gave his word.
“You make those decisions before you say I Do. Don’t get married start a family then say I changed my mind. He didn’t sign the contract but he said I Do,” Dungy wrote. “That is common decency and integrity. You don’t do that to the families of your peers.”
Dungy also said he doesn’t blame the Patriots for keeping McDaniels, but does blame McDaniels for violating a trust within the coaching community.
“Has nothing to do with a Bob Kraft. This is all on Josh McDaniels. He’s a grown man and has to take responsibility for his decisions,” Dungy wrote. “I can tell you in the football coaching community it’s not even close to being acceptable.”
Dungy is no doubt far from alone in feeling that way. And when or if McDaniels does become a head coach again, he may have a hard time convincing assistant coaches that he’s a boss they’d want to work for.
znModeratorfrom Ranking All 32 NFL Starting Quarterbacks From Worst To Best
17. Jared Goff – Los Angeles Rams
2017 stats: 296-for-477 (62.1%), 3,804 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 7 interceptions
What a difference a year and a new head coach makes. After a dismal rookie season in which everyone was ready to anoint Jared Goff as the biggest bust since JaMarcus Russell, new head coach Sean McVay revamped the offense and has the Rams’ signal caller looking like an entirely new player. In fact, he looks like the player the Rams were expecting when they took him first overall in the 2016 draft. Goff doesn’t have the strongest arm in the league, but his pin-point accuracy and underrated mobility offers Rams fans a reason to be optimistic moving forward.
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