Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
znModeratorPatriots, Rams in good shape for 2019 compensatory picks
Patriots, Rams in good shape for 2019 compensatory picks
The deadline has passed for any free agent signings that will affect the awarding of compensatory picks in next year’s NFL draft, and the Patriots and Rams are the teams that look to be in the best shape for 2019 compensatory picks.
Both the Patriots and the Rams are likely to be awarded two third-round picks next year, according to OverTheCap.com. That’s the best haul of any team.
The Patriots are always smart about getting compensatory picks, which are awarded to teams that lose more free agents, and especially more expensive free agents, than they sign. It’s no surprise to see the atop the list of compensatory picks.
But the Rams’ presence at the top may surprise a lot of people, because the Rams made offseason headlines by attracting a lot of players. How can the Rams get so many compensatory picks after an offseason dominated by headlines about the Rams bringing in big-name players?
Because those big-name players weren’t the unrestricted free agents who count toward the compensatory pick formula. Players who arrive in trades, like Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, don’t count toward the compensatory pick formula. Nor do players who were cut by their previous teams, like Ndamukong Suh. But players who leave your team as unrestricted free agents and sign big-money contracts with other teams do count toward the formula. The Rams lost two such players, Sammy Watkins and Trumaine Johnson, and that’s why they’re expected to get two third-round picks.
Other teams expected to get third-round compensatory picks next year include Washington (for losing Kirk Cousins), Minnesota (Case Keenum) and Carolina (Andrew Norwell).
The NFL doesn’t publish the full compensatory pick formula, and part of the formula relates to players’ performance during their first seasons with their new teams, so it’s possible that some of this could change before the compensatory picks are awarded for next year’s draft. But right now, the Patriots and Rams are looking good.
znModeratorPete Prisco’s NFL Power Rankings:
1 Eagles The entire summer should be about getting Carson Wentz healthy. If that happens, they could be repeat champions. — 13-3-0
2 Patriots Forget all that dissension talk. As long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are around, they are the team to beat in the AFC. — 13-3-0
3 Jaguars They have few weaknesses, but that means it’s all on Blake Bortles. If he plays like he did in the postseason, they could be the AFC Super Bowl team. 10-6-0
4 Vikings They signed Kirk Cousins at quarterback, which should make them a better team. But there’s a lot of pressure on Cousins to be the guy who gets them to the Super Bowl. 13-3-0
5 Saints They were close last year, and I think they will be even better in 2018. The defense will take another step forward with young players growing up even more. — 11-5-0
6 Steelers With Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell playing together, they are always a Super Bowl threat. But did they get that much better this offseason? 13-3-0
7 Packers They added some much-needed defensive help in the draft, especially on the corner, which will help Aaron Rodgers and the offense. 7-9-0
8 Rams They are all-in on this season with the moves they made this spring. I think a big issue remains: Can they rush from the edge? — 11-5-0
9 Falcons The Falcons gave Matt Ryan a new mega-deal, so the pressure is up on this team and him to get back to the Super Bowl. The talent is there. — 10-6-0
10 Panthers They had a good draft to upgrade in key spots, so look for them to again push for a division title. Cam Newton was given some much-needed help in the passing game in first-round receiver D.J. Moore.znModeratorfrom NFL Power Rankings: Giants climb after 2018 draft; Bills drop
Elliot Harrison
…
RANK 2
RAMS
Previous Ranking: No. 6
Change: + 4
“Too high? No way. The Rams did nothing but make their football team better this offseason. They fortified the defense, a group that steadily improved last season, with the additions of veterans Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters and — since we last completed this exercise — Ndamukong Suh. Suh might not have dominated in Miami, but he was far from a bust. Putting him next to Aaron Donald was like parking a 1978 Trans Am with gold trim next to the blue-and-white ’69 GTO you’ve had sitting in your driveway earning Defensive Player of the Year honors. Trade acquisition Brandin Cooks doesn’t exactly “replace” Sammy Watkins at receiver. Different players. Doesn’t matter. This offense is gonna rake.”
znModeratorI don’t know if I consider Tavon a miss. Can I have a third category called “push”? He did not become an every-down WR like I hoped, but he started 50 of 75 games, was targeted as a receiver almost 200 times in 2015-16 combined, was valuable as a third RB and gadget player and he returned kicks. Tavon played a lot, just not in the capacity one would expect or desire of the #8 overall pick. I end up looking at stats. If Tavon had five years like the first two years of Tyreek Hill’s career, I would call him a big hit.
That’s why I separate hit percentage and grades.
The way I do it, hit percentages are just basic raw numbers, and they more or less just tell you if the regime is meeting basic bottomline standards. Doing that narrows the discussion in terms of which teams are generally good or poor, but those numbers alone don’t finalize anything.
Grades are more complex. So it’s “Tavon too high for what he was + GR a high pick bust + very few teams in NFL history have come up with a Gurley level player and a Donald level play and a pro bowl qb in 3 consecutive drafts =…. ?”
znModeratorWho was the guy on these boards were calling them a bust? Hmmm. I wonder?
Everyone.
They’re busts.
But that’s after time to assess.
No call the same year as the draft will be valid. You have to wait.
So whoever called Goff a bust in 2016 was proven wrong. Whoever called RG3 a hit in 2012 was wrong.
znModeratorSome say Tavon was a miss. My vote is that I don ‘t count Austin as a bad pick. He was productive in his role as an offensive weapon, and until 2017 on special teams too. In terms of just hits and misses, to me that’s a hit. If you’re going to go beyond hits and misses and grade picks, then you mark Austin down for not living up to high first round value. But that;s a different issue.
So I stand by my vote on that—I don’t think TA is a miss or bust because he was a productive role player and has the yards and TDs to prove it. In terms of just raw hit percentage that counts IMO (as I said the grade is a different thing).
BUT.
I am outvoted on that, so for the sake of just kicking it around, what would the Rams hit percentage in those years be if he were counted as a miss?
It would be exactly 40%, and that (according to my math on all this) is still the threshold for “good.”
…
znModeratorSo…I’m thinking…Dickerson?….Faulk?…Hirsch?….
Yeah some “Rams fan” YOU are.
Greg Hill, June Henley, Robert Delpino, Zac Stacy, Tre Mason, Justin Watson, Cadillac Williams, Jerious Norwood, Samkon Gado, Chris Ogbonnaya …the possibilities were endless. But all YOU could think of were the flashy “star” players.
You know, being a running back in the NFL does not just get down to yards, yards per carry, production, carries, longevity, playing time, or talent.
I mean…really.
znModeratorznModeratorWhatever happened to that last reporter they had? Dani Whattshername?
Dani Klupenger. No one knows what happened to her.
May 8, 2018 at 12:27 am in reply to: Top 100: Whitworth, Peters, Suh, Talib, Goff, Gurley, Donald #85969znModeratorMay 7, 2018 at 8:53 pm in reply to: Top 100: Whitworth, Peters, Suh, Talib, Goff, Gurley, Donald #85967znModeratorNew @RamsNFL CB @marcuspeters comes in at #79!#NFLTop100 pic.twitter.com/mtoeFu8OKF
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) May 8, 2018
znModeratorYeah that was good. And purty accurate.
znModeratorVery interesting story PA. Good for you.
If you don’t mind crossing the line and getting personal a bit, what was the clue in the obituary?
May 6, 2018 at 9:47 am in reply to: Rams draft in general — tweets n bits n posts n articles etc. #85941znModeratorPARAM sez
I called in to Moving the Chains this week, while they were grading/discussing each teams draft to ask them if they take into consideration the players gained by traded picks (Cooks, Peters, Talib, in particular)? Kirwan said he absolutely did. Said he had Cooks written down in the first round on the Rams list of picks. When I pressed him on what he thought of the Rams draft he complemented it by talking about Noteboom. I asked about Allen, Jim Miller chimed in talking him up. Kirwan then mentioned Kiser and said he might be the best pick of the lot. In the end, like everybody else, they don’t know any more when it comes to who will stick and who won’t. One comment that really stood out was Kirwan saying the Rams are now a tough team to “make”. I think we miss that a bit and when taken into consideration, makes the execution of this Rams draft even more impressive. Many, if not most of these guys may end up on the PS.
znModeratorLos Angeles Rams 2018 NFL Draft Analytics Review
That was interesting, thanks for that.
.
znModeratorOgbonnia Okoronkwo in his own words:
On becoming a member of the Rams:
“I was honestly, I was at a loss of words. It felt like a dream. I sort of dozed off a little bit just sitting on the couch, and I woke up to a bunch of people shaking me with a phone in my face. When I got that call, I was a little disoriented, but when I got the call tears just started dropping [especially] when I heard coach Wade Phillips say we’re drafting you.”
On where the Rams told him he fits in on the roster:
“Yeah, they see me as an edge guy who can play linebacker and also like an instant contributor on special teams. I’ll be doing like what Robert Quinn was doing. I see an amazing opportunity with the addition of Ndamukong Suh in the offseason. With him and Aaron Donald both inside like that, that’s an edge rusher’s dream to play in L.A. right now.”
On how he knew it would be the Rams calling:
“I just had a feeling. Every time I would talk to Snead, he just kept telling me that I’m his guy and I just believed him. So, every time the Rams pick came in I made sure I was at the TV watching closely.”
znModeratorMicah Kiser in his own words:
On his reaction to becoming a Los Angeles Ram:
“I’m pumped. This is a blessing. I knew along, I knew the Rams organization liked me as a player and were interested. I’m just so happy to be a Ram, so glad that they chose me.”
On what he brings to Los Angeles:
“I’m a very smart linebacker, a leader on the field, and a great player. Very productive, I think I’ve been one of the more productive linebackers in college football over the last three years. I’m just going to come in and do whatever they want me to do — special teams, linebacker. I’m just all about the team and I’m just a football player.”
On if he believes he can come in and make an immediate impact:
“You know the roster, but everyone at this level is a pro, so you have to come in and work. Anyone can play. Anyone that gets picked in this draft or is a veteran, is a great football player. So, I’m just ready to come in and put my best foot forward and be as productive as I can. I feel like I’ve done a lot at the college level and it’s only going to get better.”
znModeratoralyoshamucci sez
One thing off the bat… I judge big 12 LB rushers very differently than regular guys.
They have endurance. They can restart their motor quickly. Against a 2 minute offense they actually have the advantage.
He’s good off the ball. He’s got really good reflexes for batting passes and reacting to screens … He’s pretty good going backwards.
He can set the edge but could use work there.
He’s not as bendy as I would like …
I honestly don’t have many negatives … He’s near the top of my 40-64 range.
I’ve seen OO take over an entire series … tackle for loss, batted pass on a screen and a sack … he’s ridiculously quick off the ball.
znModeratorLance Zierlein:
Demby is a well-built, wide-framed college tackle who projects inside to guard. He’s naturally strong with some pop at the point of attack, but his ability to sustain is inconsistent due to his lack of bend and inconsistent hand usage. Demby may be more solid than good as a run blocker, but his experience at tackle and his traits in pass protection could help him stand out for a pass-heavy offense looking to shore up a leaky interior. Demby has the traits and talent to become an eventual starter.
znModeratorI like Goff, obviously, and I think he is a for real franchise qb. But he still has some developing to do. I doubt anyone would argue with that. One measure—how was Goff in crunch games? Top games against top opposition?
Last year, for games that meet that description, I would count Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. All contenders and all with top 10 defenses.
A much more mixed record there. There are a couple of games with qb ratings in the 70s out of those 4.
They went 1-3 in those games, which obviously isn’t entirely on Goff but he could do better too.
Will he in time be more consistently good in top games? It will mean a lot if he is.
…
znModeratoralyoshamucci sez
Demby is super smooth, good heavy hands and a solid base. Demby could play ORT to “finish a game” as Mayock says … but he’s better suited to man the inside.
Demby never seemed hurried or off balance, that was my biggest plus.
I thought he’d go way earlier, 3rd or 4th round honestly. As soon as he fell i knew we’d nab him (or Adams).
He’s one of those guys that may be a tad overwhelmed his first year, but should be serviceable anyway, and when he gets used to the competition play in play out he could be a high quality starter.
znModeratorAnother traditionally good drafting team. Pittsburgh. Same years, 2012-2015.
Just under average.
znModeratorGood discussion.
Might be interesting to differentiate between starters (I’d include the nickel guy with starters) and bakups/roll players.
Then again maybe not, could become too complicated.
Yeah it’s a good discussion.
I just happen to add an array of players to “hits” which includes not just starters but significant role players. So for example I counted both Nate Ebner with the Patz (top special teamer) and Hager with the Rams (some good back-up work plus top special teamer). I think having significant contributing special teamers reflects good drafting.
But then the point is to compare different teams’s hit percentages, so if you do it the same for all teams, the comparison is valid.
To me discussing Tavon’s draft position is a “grading” thing and I separate grades from hit percentage. Hit percentage is just numbers.
Quick caught 105 passes with the Rams. Is he a hit? I say no. They were clearly keeping him in the lineup to try and get him going, he never really delivered for his position (which is unlike Tavon an actual WR), he didn’t have the TDs, or the catch percentage (50%), and he did nothing last year with a new team.
znModeratorI’ve just never thought that he was that great of a weapon as a gadget player that he can be counted as a hit regardless of where he was drafted.
I believe he is a career backup part time gadget player.
If he was a 4th rounder or lower, that would be okay, but I still wouldn’t count him as a hit. But it would be okay for that amount of draft capital.
Even if I saw him that way, to me that’s a hit. I don’t list only starters as hits. For example if they had drafted Robey-Coleman, as a nickel back he’s a significant contributor hence a hit.
Tavon = 561 touches, 24 TDs. Significant contributor. A hit. Not a starter but a hit.
Same with Cooper. He’s the PR which only meant only 100 touches in 2 years but still a hit.
And this is across the board with other teams too. When I compare the Rams hit percentage with other teams, I count the hits the exact same way. That’s why I counted Nate Ebner as a hit for the Patz even though he has never started a down on defense. He’s a key special teamer and I count that as a hit.
znModeratorI don’t think Tavon is even remotely a bust. Some would say a disppointment based on the slot where he was picked, but he was performing half the role he was supposed to be performing in 2017, when McVay would not use him in the passing game. That’s not on Tavon.
Well, if it’s not on Tavon, then who is it on? McVay?
I think if Tavon had shown any ability in the passing game, McVay would have used him. Tavon’s own deficiencies kept him out of the passing game. Maybe if he hadn’t had wrist surgery and hurt his hamstring in the preseason when he was trying to learn the offense things might have been different, but Tavon never materialized as anything more than a gadget player and a good punt returner before succumbing to the worst case of the yips I’ve ever seen.
Yes that’s on McVay. And that’s not even a complaint. I was saying last spring before the season that there was a good chance McV would not be interested in using Tavon the way Tavon can be used, and that he had no obligation to do so since McV didn’t draft Tavon. That there was a chance he was not going to bend his system to incorporate Tavon. Again, that was last spring.
He HAS shown what ability he does have in the passing game and has been used that way. From 2014 to 2016 he has 237 targets and 141 catches. Means he can be used in the passing game.
The mistake everyone makes with Tavon IMO is to judge him as a pure receiver. I was saying he WASN’T that before they even drafted him.
He’s a weapon you can use to run the ball and catch the ball, and if Schott and Cigs could figure out how to do that, obviously McV could too. I just don’t think he had any interest in doing it.
In Dallas he replaces Dunbar whose touches divide pretty evenly between catches and runs. That’s what I expect to see. It looks like it will be 2014-2015 again, where he had 83 catches and 88 runs.
Watch career highlights with Tavon. [ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJvZUVnI9dg ].He catches passes. The idea that he can’t is just not born out. But, you have to program in what he CAN do because what he’s NOT going to be is a pure receiver who can be used as one.
The advantage of having him as a hybrid weapon who you both run the ball with and throw to is that you cannot tell from where he lines up which it will be, and since defenses never stopped heavily accounting for him, that’s a good thing. Adds some deception to the game.
znModeratorFor starters, I’d call tavon a bust. I really would.
I don’t think Tavon is even remotely a bust. Some would say a disppointment based on the slot where he was picked, but he was performing half the role he was supposed to be performing in 2017, when McVay would not use him in the passing game. That’s not on Tavon.
To me it’s a matter of perspective. Trung Canidate is a bust. Robert Thomas is a bust. Jimmy Kennedy is a bust. Klopenstein is a bust. Tye Hill is a bust. Claude Wroten is a bust. Brian Leonard is a bust. Chris Givens is a bust. Tavon gets used and accounted for. That’s not a bust.
——————
Well, like i said, we disagree. He was drafted in the top ten. They moved up to get him. And he ended up making as many bad plays as good ones. Drops, muffs, fumbles, missed assignments, bad kick-return decisions. He totally lost his confidence at the end.
If he’d been a sixth round pick, I ‘might’ not call him a bust. But i might. I dunno. But a top ten pick that ends up running a few sweeps and basically plays decoy because the coach doesnt trust him to do anything else? For me, bust is a fair word.
w
vI don’t count draft slot in determining if a guy is a bust. A 5th rounder can still be a bust.
The way I do this, there’s 2 steps. 1st, basic hit percentage, which is just raw data. Doing that keeps people from being completely arbitrary. So if someone goes “Snead sukks, look at all the busts” you can point out that a 40% hit rate is good. Period. No team hits on everyone and every team has first and 2nd round busts in their history.
There’s another step though.
Grading is a separate step. It’s qualitative. Then you bring up things like where Tavon was picked, Robinson, Donald, Gurley, and hash out how that looks.
To me a bust is a guy who cannot play in the league.
You don;t have defenses geared up to account for a guy with extra attention every time he’s on the field if he’s a bust.
I mean if I did 2016 I would certainly count Cooper as a hit/significant contributor because of PRs. If anything Tavon did more than he has.
And as I said, hit percentages is just basic math. If you want to register a complaint about Tavon’s draft spot, that goes into what I consider to be the next step, which is grading.
…
-
This reply was modified 8 years, 3 months ago by
zn.
znModeratorhe Pats are an interesting example. They, apparently are often below average on the draft, but they must be good evaluators during free agency, cause they always put together a good team ‘somehow’.
I don;t agree with that either btw.
Subtract Brady and Bellichick and you don’t have a good team.
That doesn’t mean they put together good teams, measured against others. It means they have both Brady and Bellichick.
—————
Well what is it that Belichick does? He “puts together a good team”.Also — Gronk.
w
vI don’t see it like that. No I don’t see that he does, not every year. He frequently puts together average but tightly coached teams and takes advantage of their ace qb to always be in a position to win.
Last superbowl the better team won, even with Foles. The Eagles are a good team top to bottom in a way the Patz were not.
znModeratorThey really do look poised to make a run at it. But then so do the Vikes and Eagles and maybe the Saints and Panthers. Maybe some others.
I can’t remember the last time the NFC was this crowded at the top.
znModeratorA Post-Draft Position-By-Position Breakdown of the Rams
J.B. Long
With free agency and the NFL Draft behind us the 2018 Los Angeles Rams roster is coming more into focus. Here is one way to frame it and the corresponding expectations (recently rising to No. 2 in the most recent NFL.com Power Rankings):
QB: You would expect Jared Goff to continue to make strides entering Year 3, benefiting from system continuity for the first time since leaving Cal, in particular. He’ll also have far more practice time to sync up with Brandin Cooks than he did with Sammy Watkins a year ago.
RB: While it may be unrealistic to project Todd Gurley to be as statistically productive as his MVP-worthy 2017, he’s in his prime and in an offense tailored to his strengths. Malcolm Brown has proven to be a serviceable backup, and sixth-round pick John Kelly fortifies the group.
WR: Even if you don’t view Cooks as an upgrade over Watkins, he’s more than an adequate replacement and will have a better grasp of the offense than the late arrival from Buffalo did last summer. Robert Woods is coming off a career year and might be the most underrated target in the NFL. Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds are well-positioned to grow in their sophomore campaigns.
TE: Given their talent, youth, coaching, and perhaps a healthy Temarrick Hemingway, the Rams assuredly will get better results from their tight end room.
OL: The entire group returns intact for a second year in the system, under the mentorship of Aaron Kromer, and is bolstered by the Rams top two draft selections. It also doesn’t hurt that Rodger Saffold, Jamon Brown, and Rob Havensteinshould be motivated by imminent free agency.
DL: Take the defensive MVP, Aaron Donald; add one of his few position peers, Ndamukong Suh; get Michael Brockers and Dom Easley healthy; layer in depth acquired through the two most recent Drafts. This is the strongest defensive line in the NFL, hands down.
S: Depth may have taken a bit of a hit at safety, but Lamarcus Joyner is elite and John Johnson is poised to build off a sensational rookie effort.
CB: What was the Rams’ biggest concern following the 2017 season became one of the biggest strengths in the NFL heading into 2018. Lock Angeles.
OLB: Is it possible that Samson Ebukam, Matt Longacre, and Obo Okoronkwo prove to be more productive than Robert Quinn and Connor Barwin? The Rams believe it’s possible, based on their maneuvering. And few defensive coordinators get better results from edge defenders than Wade Phillips.
ILB: Similarly, there’s a viable case to be made that the Rams can improve inside, having traded Alec Ogletree, retained Mark Barron, acquired Ramik Wilson, and drafted Micah Kiser. The theme of this offseason has been completing the process of matching defensive personnel to Phillips’ system. It may not prove to be as simple as they’ve made it look on paper, but… I wouldn’t expect regression at linebacker, put it that way.
SPTMs: Though it may be difficult to match their three special teams touchdowns from 2017, a Pro Bowl unit has established an elite track record with Bones Fassel. Greg Zuerlein’s back injury would be the only question mark here.
znModeratorfrom NFL Power Rankings: Giants climb after 2018 draft; Bills drop
Elliot Harrison
…
RANK 2
RAMS
Previous Ranking: No. 6
Change: + 4
“Too high? No way. The Rams did nothing but make their football team better this offseason. They fortified the defense, a group that steadily improved last season, with the additions of veterans Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters and — since we last completed this exercise — Ndamukong Suh. Suh might not have dominated in Miami, but he was far from a bust. Putting him next to Aaron Donald was like parking a 1978 Trans Am with gold trim next to the blue-and-white ’69 GTO you’ve had sitting in your driveway earning Defensive Player of the Year honors. Trade acquisition Brandin Cooks doesn’t exactly “replace” Sammy Watkins at receiver. Different players. Doesn’t matter. This offense is gonna rake.”
-
This reply was modified 8 years, 3 months ago by
-
AuthorPosts
