Note on those 1st round picks keeping costs down. Conventional wisdom talks a lot about the importance of having your QB on a rookie (5-year) contract, but logic says that’s going to be true for other positions as well. Conventional wisdom also talks about wanting the offense to have its “triplets,” though the GSOT pretty much turned that into quadruplets, at least.

So, ideally, you’d want to hit on your QB, a coupla receivers, and a running back all at once, and if you’re really lucky, land a great edge, corner, LT, and TE the next season. Get yourself three or four years of a stable cap, and build that window of contention. Even better, score later round picks to round things out in back to back years, and the number of vets needed to supplement it all falls dramatically. One can also, obviously, focus on D instead of O, but the basics remain.

First round picks are extremely important when it comes to team-building, cap management, and peak performance years. They also offer far greater trade-down value than 2nd or 3rd rounders, if a team wants to go that route. It’s not even close.

You kinda lost me here.

They couldn’t sign anybody because they went out of their way to take the dead money hits they did. That’s a conscious decision. They wanted to trade the 2023 cap for 2024 cap space. You yourself said the method of completely reloading every so often can be a good strategy. That’s what they did.

I’m far from being a cap expert, even remotely speaking. But it seems logical to me that the Rams never would have had those massive dead money hits if they had managed their cap better — plus their vets, acquisitions, trades, rentals, etc. And this seems to snowball in effect. The poor cap management forces the dumping of players, which forces more dead money, which forces the swap of one bad year for the next, etc. . . . . That conscious decision of trading bad years for good you mentioned was forced on them due to past mistakes, it seems to me. If they had handled player assets and contracts with more care . . . I don’t see them needing to swap one year of cap hell for the next.

Again, all the usual caveats, as outsider, not insider. But it looks to me like the Rams in the McSnead era have been unusually fickle and impulsive at times . . . and, as mentioned before, often far too concerned with “doing right” by players they’ve decided to jettison . . . which has always struck me as kind of odd. Wouldn’t it show more respect to keep them on the team in the first place?

Anyway, appreciate the discussion, ZN. Hope all is well.

I guess we just see the talent level and team management in a different light.

I’d bet, for example, that if the Rams had no cap issues, they’d happily re-sign several of the starters that signed with other teams this time (and in recent years). A’Shawn Robinson, Greg Gaines, and Nick Scott stay, for instance. They happily keep Wagner, and don’t trade Ramsey. I’m also pretty sure they’d keep Floyd if they couldn’t trade him. They’d do this because losing them means defensive decline at their respective positions, plus the loss of major intangibles and glue-guys like Wagner.

They didn’t have anyone as good behind them, and they still don’t, even after the Draft, IMO. I do have high hopes for Young at Edge, and Hampton as a solid rotational guy there, but that’s to be determined on the field. The Rams already knew what they had in their departing starters, and it was good enough to win playoff games, at least.

And that’s just their own starters. Because of cap mismanagement, they also couldn’t bring in upgrades from other teams, and they were out there. They always are. Not only were the Rams unable to retain their own guys, they couldn’t dive into the free agency market. Lots of other teams could, and they gained ground on the Rams as a result.

As for those headscratchers. Judging from the numbers of former draft picks defenestrated before their rookie contracts expired, it would seem the Rams FO thought they botched a few picks too.

https://247sports.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/Team/Los-Angeles-Rams-683/DraftPicks/?year=alltime

The loss of all of those 3rd round picks in recent years is especially troubling to me . . . .

wv wrote:

I dont know enough to have a ‘take.’ In general, I just dont see a lot of ‘playmakers’ on this team. No Von Millers, Jalen Ramseys, OBJ’s, etc. I dunno what the ‘identity’ (as they say) of this team will be. What are they? …So they are sick and tired of the quick passing games beating them? Well, thats nice to know, but at this stage I’d be happy if they can just stop the run this season. Can they? w v

They let their best run stuffers go, or traded them away. That would be Robinson, Wagner, and Ramsey, with Floyd being pretty close to the top three. Wagner is elite against the run. So was Robinson. I think it’s safe to say the Rams don’t win the Super Bowl without Robinson. They don’t get there without Ramsey.

Yes, they were in cap hell. But, again, they made that bed themselves. It wasn’t necessary or inevitable. The Rams simply didn’t have to take this nose dive after building a Super Bowl team. No one forced them to extend Stafford right after the Super Bowl, especially with those guarantees. No one forced them to do that with Kupp. Were those “feel good” moves? Yep. In the high after the Big Win, it felt great to reward the players. But it wasn’t at all smart, and it really hurt them long term.

Those moves, among others, forced the sell-off, the giveaways, the off-loading. I don’t think there has ever been anything like it that soon after a Super Bowl win. And they received zero compensation for cutting Hendo, Burgess, Lewis, Hollins, Floyd, and Wagner. Zero. They didn’t even utilize their strategy of setting things up for good comp picks.

The unforced errors frustrate me. But that’s what we get with McSnead. We get brilliance at times, mixed with proverbial head-scratchers and emotionalism.

As for identity and playmakers? It’s the Stafford-Kupp show, again. I think they drafted a coupla guys who might alter things, in Zack Evans and Davis Allen. But we’ll see. If Evans is healthy, he’s likely the better, faster back over Akers, and Allen, if he gets the offense quickly, he can be amazing as a jump ball End Zone guy. Should make Stafford a very happy camper. Other than that, perhaps Jester surprises too and becomes a fan favorite, and there’s always Tutu.

In short, the Rams are probably another draft away from creating a real identity. My take, anyway.

Regardless, I like a lot of the picks, but I think they could have maximized their haul better, even if we just go by their own criteria. The usual caveats, of course. They have their own board. They have far more info, especially about medicals, backgrounds, interviews of coaches, friends, etc. etc.

I get all of that.

We all hope they did (and do) the right thing and the Rams make a swift comeback this year.

Thought I should add this to the strategy deal. If it’s not already assumed, etc.  etc.

I wouldn’t want to do that massive class every year, obviously. Hopefully, the Rams would hit on enough really good picks to cancel the need to go the quantity route more than once or twice. If all goes well, each year within the start of that first window, you’d need fewer and fewer upgrades. That lets them narrow their focus. Really, really need an Edge? Maybe change-up and trade up for the best. Wideout? Left Tackle? Etc.

I’m betting that in the age of AI, NFL teams have software/algorithms to figure out optimum years for this sort of ongoing process. We could even give it a name, like the AD Window. Anno Domini/Aaron Donald, perhaps. I don’t think any team is really doing this yet, but they should, IMNSHO.

Ideally, however, you’d want to build your team with a large influx of talent, all at the same time, and then add on with more and more focus until you lose enough of your first wave to do it all again. Keep the guys you should/can. Be smart about that, not emotional, etc.

Lotsa Super Bowls will result.

;>)

Something to consider. Unless I’ve mixed up the picks, the Rams traded Jalen Ramsey, essentially, for Byron Young and Hunter Long.

Also, on strategy. I think it’s very smart to try to trade down within your board’s “clusters,” whenever possible. If you have takers, do it often — again, within your clusters. I wouldn’t do that if I’m thinking my team is one or two players away, at one or two positions, etc. I’d stick and draft “my guys,” with few exceptions. But few teams exist in that realm. The Rams certainly don’t. The trick is, of course, turning quantity into quality. If you can’t, it’s usually better just to stick and pick.

I’d also say that the Rams’ 14 picks shouldn’t be seen as the top end. Lotsa ifs here . . . but if you have the cap room to sign a large rookie class, there are huge advantages to grabbing a very large group all at once, most of them pretty obvious. First and foremost, perhaps, you control your own window of opportunity for at least four years, and you can supplement the youngins with key vets (and vet holdovers).

The above strategy is maximized if you have a First, especially an early one. There is a massive difference in pick value from Round One on down. For instance, the first pick is worth 3000 points. The Rams’ pick at #36 was worth 540. Once you get into the 5th round, the range has fallen to 37-18. The vast majority of the 7th round has just 1 point per pick.

In the real world, that trade chart isn’t always used, or used to the letter. But it is a rough guide.