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Fisher says Alec Ogletree is excited about moving to MLB. "He's in the building every day, and he's wearing Gregg [Williams] out."
— Roe RcAtee (@3k_) February 24, 2016
AgamemnonFisher spoke to Ogletree about moving inside after releasing Laurinaitis. Says Tree has been in the building everyday w/ DC Williams since
— Dani Klupenger (@daniklup) February 24, 2016
AgamemnonBig names are on the move in our pre-NFL Scouting Combine mock draft
Charles Davis previews the NFL Combine
By Peter Schrager @PSchrags
Feb 22, 2016 at 11:00a ETThe NFL Scouting Combine is the best, most-active week of the NFL offseason. General managers, coaches, scouts, agents, media and business affairs types (and hanger-ons) converge on Indianapolis for seven days and evaluate, talk, drink, hang out and debate. There also happens to be a bunch of draft prospects there, looking to get their dreams realized. There’s three legs to the NFL Draft Triple Crown. Senior Bowl, Combine and Pro Day. The Senior Bowl opened the window to some of these young men, and there are countless others on display this week. Going into Indianapolis, here’s my latest 2016 Mock Draft.
You know the deal. This will change. Have an issue with the picks or who I have your team selecting? Hit me at PeterSchrager@gmail.com or on Twitter @Pschrags.
FIRST ROUND
1. Tennessee (3-13): Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss, Jr.
Tennessee’s first-year GM Jon Robinson could end up shopping and trading this pick to a team that wants or needs a quarterback and fears they won’t get one with their current draft position. If Tennessee keeps the pick, I’d see them going with Tunsil, the talented left tackle most often compared to Tyron Smith of the Cowboys. Tunsil was suspended by the NCAA for seven games — a bit of a red flag — but should do fine in the interview process. 2014 first-round pick Taylor Lewan could shift to right tackle and Tunsil could man the left side.
2. Cleveland (3-13): Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State, Sr.
I’ll have a better idea on what the Browns are looking to do with their quarterback situation after this week, but at the moment, believe Wentz is the guy. Free agents like Brock Osweiler and potentially Sam Bradford could be better options for Cleveland than a rookie starter, but Wentz might just fit the mold. The Senior Bowl breakout star is 6-foot-5, 240 pounds, has a big arm, and is no stranger to the frigid conditions of the AFC North. Oh, and he’s surprisingly agile and quick on his feet. Hue Jackson knows his QBs. So does Pep Hamilton. If they fall in love with one of the veteran free agents or Cal’s Jared Goff, I’d trust them. But they may have a hard time denying Wentz.
3. San Diego (4-12): DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon, Sr.
Don’t be shocked. I know this is higher than where everyone else has him, but I’ve spoken to some scouts who say Buckner is the top player in this draft. He is a 6-foot-7, 290-pound pure athlete who tore up the Pac-12 this season. He had 12 tackles for a loss in just a nine-game season. Arik Armstead was a top-20 pick last year. I think Buckner goes top 10. Joey Bosa’s the bigger name, but in draft circles, many believe Buckner’s got the bigger potential.
4. Dallas (4-12): Jared Goff, QB, Cal, Jr.
Cowboys fans got a glimpse of what life without Tony Romo could be like this season, and it wasn’t pretty. There’s a chance a Johnny Manziel, a Robert Griffin III, or a Colt McCoy signs as a backup in March, but don’t be surprised if the Cowboys snag a long-term answer at quarterback, too. Goff is a big kid, a nice prospect, and has all the traits that could make the next great franchise quarterback in Big D. Let him learn under Romo, groom the next guy, and suffer no Quincy Carter/Chad Hutchinson-like drop-off.
5. Jacksonville (5-11): Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida St., Jr.
Ramsey is a guy who can do it all in a defensive backfield, matching up with small, shifty slot receivers or handling the towers like Calvin Johnson or Mike Evans. He’s a track-and-field star, can tackle, and has been one of the leaders on a very successful Florida State team for multiple seasons. Is he a safety or a corner? I’m not sure. But he’s damn good and a great fit for whatever Gus Bradley wants to do on D moving forward.
6. Baltimore (5-11): Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida, Jr.
The Ravens don’t typically have top-6 picks. They’ll be happy to see either Ramsey or Hargreaves III on the board. Hargreaves is a star who held two of the top wideouts in the country — Travin Dural and Laquon Treadwell — under 100 receiving yards this year. He lacks ideal size (5-foot-11), but has the instincts to be a star.
7. San Francisco (5-11): Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio St., Jr.
Bosa is in for a week of dissection in Indianapolis. Who is this guy? Both on and off the field? Is the Ohio State pass rusher the next JJ Watt? Probably not. But he’s got an incredible first step, comes from a football family, and would make an immediate impact for a 49ers defense that’s desperate for a pass rushing talent. He’s still potentially the top pick in the Draft, but I’ve also heard others who insist he’s a question mark.
8. Miami (6-10): Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA, Jr.
Jack is the draft’s biggest wild card. If his rehab from a torn meniscus continues to progress — as I’m told it will — he’ll be a top-10 selection. The Dolphins have Ndamukong Suh on the inside, Cam Wake as a pass rusher, and will likely try to bring back promising Olivier Vernon this March. In a division owned by Tom Brady, you can never have enough top defensive talent up front.
9. Tampa Bay (6-10): Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame, Jr.
Stanley’s the real deal. Behind Tunsil, he’s the left tackle I have my eye on. The Buccaneers like the two linemen they drafted in the second round a year ago — Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet — but can still use another franchise cornerstone to protect their number one asset, Jameis Winston. The Bucs would love to add an elite pass rusher, but Stanley’s the guy to take at 9 if the draft plays out this way.
10. N.Y. Giants (6-10): Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State
There will be nearly a dozen players out of Ohio State drafted in the first 100 picks. Lee is second on my list behind Bosa and could be the best of all of them at the next level. He’s a bit small on first sight and doesn’t look like a traditional NFL linebacker (235 pounds), but Lee flies all over the field and can rush the quarterback. Once upon a time, the Giants had impact guys all over their defense. Those days feel like forever ago. One scout told me he’s a “better Lavonte David.” You’ll take that, Giants fans.
11. Chicago (6-10): Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky
Spence is one of the biggest wild cards in the draft. I know some teams already list him as a top 10 guy, while others believe the jury is still out. The Bears need not only pass rushers, but defensive help all over its front seven. Spence was the eye-opening talent of Senior Bowl Week. More important than the skills the former Ohio State player displayed on the field was his demeanor in interviews with teams. Spence has a big week ahead — he has a history with drugs that’s been well chronicled — in which he’ll be answering questions for days. If he can get through those questions — he’s a top-15 pick.
12. New Orleans (7-9): Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville, Sr.
If Spence was the star of Senior Bowl week on the defensive side of the ball, Rankins was a close second. Though he didn’t play in the actual game, Rankins manhandled opponents all week in practice and showed that he has the potential to be the Aaron Donald of this draft class. At 6-2, 305 pounds, Rankins can move. A great fit for what New Orleans is looking to do up front.
13. Philadelphia (7-9): Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson, Jr.
If this were a better cornerback draft, I’d have the Eagles going with one, here. But it’s not, and I don’t see one worthy of being in the top 15 after the first two are taken. The Eagles are good up front, but you can never have enough pass rush. Lawson brings it off the edge and was virtually unstoppable this year. He was all over the field in the college football playoff games.
14. Oakland (7-9): Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame, Jr.
The Raiders have one franchise cornerstone on defense in Khalil Mack. Smith would be a steal at 14, and the ultimate “long-term play.” They may need to exhibit a bit of patience on this one, but the payoff could be worth it in the end. Smith suffered a bad injury in the Fiesta Bowl and his recovery time is still a bit of an unknown at the moment. He could be out for the first several weeks of the 2016 season. If and when healthy, Smith can rush the quarterback, stop the run, drop into coverage and lead a team. He’s a star — healthy in April or not.
15. Los Angeles (7-9): Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State, Sr.
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I’d hold off on the Peyton Manning to the Rams stuff for now. Instead, I’d look at the draft. I know everyone else has Paxton Lynch as their third QB in this year’s class, but I’d advise you to circle this Mock Draft now, put it away somewhere and remember this prediction. I’ve had Connor Cook going in the top 20 since August. He didn’t do anything over the past six months that should impact that.16. Detroit (7-9): Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State, Jr.
Ogbah is an interesting one. He had 11 sacks as a sophomore because of his freakish athleticism. He, then, doubled down and had 13 sacks in 2015, even though he was a focus of opposing offenses’ blocking schemes. New GM Bob Quinn is a scout’s scout. I think Ogbah — relatively clean from top to bottom — is a solid pick here.
17. Atlanta (8-8): Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama, Sr.
The Jaguars coaching staff used Ragland as an outside linebacker at the Senior Bowl, but I don’t think that’s the right fit. The Falcons are desperate for some help up the middle on that Dan Quinn defense. If Bobby Wagner was that guy for Quinn in Seattle, there’s a chance Ragland can be that dude for him in Atlanta. Ferocious player who Nick Saban loved, he’d be a great fit.
18. Indianapolis (8-8): Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio St., Sr.
Dak Prescott stays loose as the NFL draft approaches
Decker moves well despite being 6-foot-7. He’s a first-round pick, can complement Anthony Castonzo on that Indy offensive line and is a rock-solid player. More offensive-line help is needed for Indianapolis. Lots more.
19. Buffalo (8-8): Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State, Jr.
Whether he’s a tackle or guard at the next level will be figured out in due time. The Bills could have some moving parts on that offensive line this off-season, and they’d be wise to draft the best one available. Conklin can play right away. Nasty.
20. N.Y. Jets (10-6): Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio St., Jr.
Elliott has been described as the best blocking running back in the entire draft. He can also run quite a bit. I had a scout tell me he’s a top-five pick, but even with Todd Gurley’s success, I’m not sure I can put a running back much higher than here. Especially with the needs other teams have. The Jets would be a great fit.
21. Washington (9-7): Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State, Jr.
After the top 20, we may see some of the other cornerbacks fly off the board. The Redskins are desperate for some young talent in their defensive backfield. Apple’s tough, fast and has great ball skills. A New Jersey native, the 6-foot-1 cornerback improved in his junior season. Good fit, here.
22. Houston (9-7): A’Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama, Jr.
Everyone’s going to assume the Texans go with a quarterback (most likely Christian Hackenberg) here, but I can see them beefing up their interior defensive line. Robinson’s an interesting prospect, to be certain. He’s 6-foot-3, 320 pounds and is actually much lighter on his feet than you’d expect. Talented inside and plays angry.
23. Minnesota (11-5): Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss, Jr.
Treadwell’s the most fascinating prospect in this entire draft class. I am downright intrigued to see where he ends up in April. He’s a crisp route runner who does it all on tape. He produces. But he will be underwhelming in the 40-yard dash and the vertical and broad jump this week in Indianapolis. This will be your classic case of production vs. measurables. And for that reason, he may slip all the way to No. 23.
24. Cincinnati (12-4): Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor, Jr.
Both Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones are free agents, and even if one or both are back, I could see Cincinnati grabbing another impact wide receiver with this pick. Coleman had 74 receptions for 1,363 yards and 20 touchdowns last season, and will test better than Treadwell. His season was cut short with an injury, but he should be fine come Week 1.
25. Pittsburgh (10-6): Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech, Jr.
2016 NFL Draft Prospect KeiVarae Russell attempts a 54″ box jump
Fuller comes from a long line of Fullers who have succeeded in the NFL. He’s 6-0, 190 pounds and was a stud at Virginia Tech before an injury cut his 2015 season short. Good pedigree. Strong player. A need for Pittsburgh.
26. Seattle (10-6): Cody Whitehair, OG, Kansas State, Sr.
The Seahawks offensive line got manhandled by the Panthers in the divisional round and Russell Okung’s future is in the air. Look for Seattle to beef up the line, and Whitehair, who could play tackle or center, may be the guy. He played well — not great — at the Senior Bowl. Should be a late-first, early second-round guy.
27. Green Bay (10-6): Jarran Reed, DT Alabama, Sr.
Reed is your big run-stuffing defensive tackle who can play either inside or outside on certain formations. Not a big pass rush guy, but a big plugger on the line. Green Bay’s defense finished the season strong and the unit beefed up in the draft last year. Here’s another potential long-term starter.
28. Kansas City (11-5): Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia, Jr.
Floyd is 6-4, 230 pounds and can move. He led Georgia in sacks three years in a row and showed a variety of polished moves to get to the quarterback last season. He’s more of a finished product than others coming off the edge in this class and can contribute right away. Look for Kansas City to get some more outside pass rush help.
29. Arizona (13-3): Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis, Jr.
I’ve got Lynch falling to 29. Carson Palmer is the quarterback for the immediate future, but why not take a gamble on a long-term successor? Lynch is 6-foot-7 and has all the physical tools, but didn’t particularly play well in his bowl game. Is he the next Carson Palmer? Or the next Dan McGwire? Teams want to find out.
30. Carolina (15-1): Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson, Redshirt Sophomore
Alexander is 5-foot-10, has the swagger and confidence of a top NFL cornerback, and has handled some of college football’s top receivers, including Notre Dame first-round talent Will Fuller. The downside? He didn’t have an interception his entire career at Clemson. Alexander could go as high as top 15 or fall out of the first round. Combine week will be big.
31. Denver (12-4): Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama, Sr.
I like Kelly the most of this year’s batch of centers, though I know some scouts who are bigger on Nick Martin out of Notre Dame. A lot of this pick will depend on what the Broncos do (or don’t do) in free agency.
http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/mock-draft-nfl-scouting-combine-022216
There are some videos at the link that you might find interesting. They are a bit too much trouble to link directly here.
Randy K said the Rams would have taken Cook at 10 last year, if he would have come out. That means they would have taken him even over Gurley. So, it might figure that they would take him this year at 15.
AgamemnonReception Perception: Top-four NFL Draft wide receiver primer
By: Matt Harmon
January 18th, 2016
http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-top-four-college-receiver-primer.htmlAs you often hear ambitious men and women say, this is just the beginning. Under the benefits of working for the shield I’ve spent all season charting and collecting Reception Perception data on the 2016 NFL Draft’s crop of wide receivers. The work is far from over, but my plan is to be ready for a release of most of this data some time after the conclusion of the Super Bowl. I’m excited to gear up for another offseason of creating Reception Perception content, and furthering the reach of the methodology.
However, because interest in the draft is starting to peak, and you know I have to get these takes off, I put together this small look at four of the draft’s receivers. Laqoun Treadwell, Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson and Sterling Shepard are incredible players, and some of the best this year has to offer. They’ll all compete to fit into my personal top-five rankings, and will do so for many others. These are the only four I’ve completed a full college Reception Perception sample on, which I elected to make six instead of the normal NFL requirement of eight due to the shorter status of their season. I’m still not 100 percent sure how Reception Perception results will differ when evaluating a large field of college prospects as opposed to NFL players, but we’ll likely have a good answer for that at the end of this endeavor.Expect far more in-depth Reception Perception content on these four and many other wideout draft prospects in the coming months. Keep in mind, even as we sit here today, my thoughts are far from complete on any player. For now, lets just take a look at these four’s Success Rate Versus Coverage (SRVC) scores.
Before we go any further, if you found this page and you are unfamiliar with Reception Perception, thank you for checking the series out. If you need a primer or even a refresher for what the methodology is or attempts to uncover, please refer to this page holding all of last year’s Reception Perception content. You’ll see just how much you have to look forward to beyond the cursory glance here.
Laqoun Treadwell is the No. 1 wide receiver in this year’s draft class, and to me, there is no real debate to have on the subject. We know that Treadwell is a maven in the contested catch game, often earning him the Alshon Jeffery comparison. Despite Jeffery’s status as one of the best receivers in the league today, that comparison doesn’t do Treadwell justice. One reality that Reception Perception helps illuminate is his ability to create separation, an area that seems to go undersold.Treadwell’s attempts against man coverage (130) was by far the most among this group. His 74.6 percent SRVC against man is well in line with several NFL star players like Dez Bryant and Allen Robinson. Again, there is certainly a need for weighting and adjusting when comparing college to NFL results, but that’s still encouraging. Another way these prospect results perhaps can’t go 1-1 is the difference in conference defensive strength. Treadwell keeping pace with, or besting, his three peers here that play in the notoriously leaky Big-12 conference is great to see. Treadwell has no major holes in his game.
Josh Doctson seems to be somewhat of a polarizing prospect. Some will get hung up over his age, but it does not worry me. There was a similar discussion around Kevin White last season, who still went in the top-10. Unlike White, Doctson already looks like a polished NFL receiver.
Watch the highlight reels and you’ll see he’s a tremendous player in the contested catch game. Not many collegiate receivers track the ball and contort in perfect fashion to play the pass in the air like Doctson. However, don’t get fooled into thinking that is all he is. Doctson creates separation off press coverage. His 83.3 percent SRVC against press shows the refinement of his release moves. He’s also an intelligent players with an understanding of where to sit down in zones, and his SRVC facing it is currently the best charted in this class. I was on RotoViz Radio a few months back, and in a post-show conversation, one of the illustrious hosts Matt Freedman made a comparison between Doctson and DeAndre Hopkins. I’m trying to avoid player comps this year, but that one stuck with me. Much like Hopkins, Doctson doesn’t have one overwhelming physical trait, but just does everything well. Don’t rule out that Doctson settles on that trajectory.
Sterling Shepard, oh let me count the ways he impresses. Back in November when charting these players, I had no idea who he was before rolling the tape and pulling out the Reception Perception sheets. He made me take notice immediately, and earned the title of “my favorite” wide receiver in this class. Shepard is bar-none the best route runner coming out of college this year, already showing great ability to execute even the most in-depth and nuanced aspects of route assignments like an NFL veteran.
Revisionist history holds Odell Beckham in, deserved, elite company because of his eye-popping plays and athletic movements. However, what made him such an easy sell right off the bat to NFL scouting departments was his refinement as a collegiate. Carolina Panthers GM Dave Gettleman spoke on him after the draft and called him easily the best route runner among his peer’s in the 2014 class. I’ll never be so flippant to put a prospect in the special air that Beckham holds, but Shepard has that same easy to bite on refinement.
Shepard’s SRVC against man is a whopping 7.8 percentage points better than the next highest in this group. An 82.8 percent score normalizing at that high of a rate over a full sample is a feat to take notice of. He tops it only by a 91.1 percent SRVC score against press, also 7.8 percentage points higher than the next closest mark. There are holes to pick in Shepard’s game, and we’ll touch on those in the future, but his elite strengths in the route-running department make him tough to keep away from the second spot after Treadwell.
Corey Coleman figures as another prospect that there will be a ton of debate over in the coming months. The Baylor offense adds some wrinkles that evaluators will get hung up on. In terms of Reception Perception, he’s an odd evaluation, because you cannot possibly chart all of Baylor’s pass plays as routes run by a receiver. Again, it’s something we’ll touch on in a full profile of Coleman at a later date, but Baylor’s coaches instruct their receivers to just trot down the field when the pass target isn’t headed to their side of the field. That is why his attempts against coverage are so much lower than his three peers here, despite going under the microscope for the same six-game sample.
At one point, Coleman’s scores looked better than they finished at here. Coleman did not sustain the same level of elite play throughout the season, and his SRVC against man diminished the most as a result. He has ridiculous high-end athletic potential to develop as a professional route-runner, but Coleman is from that point yet. However, there’s plenty to get excited about with him. One area I expect Coleman to get underrated in is his intelligence as a receiver. In that Baylor offense the receiver has a ton of responsibility to read and diagnose coverages, especially zones. Coleman’s ability to do so is reflected in a strong 80 percent SRVC there. I tend to think the positives outweigh the negatives with Coleman, but we are far from finished with this process.
That’s all for now, just some short-form to to wet our lips here at the onset of draft season. Please continue to follow the series for a further look at these four prospects, more incoming rookies and then eventually NFL players. Reception Perception is back in full-swing. Buckle up.
AgamemnonWatch out for Josh Doctson out of TCU, who will make a huge and immediate impact on whichever team ends up picking him in the 2016 NFL Draft.
The Chargers have put off grooming Malcolm Floyd’s replacement/getting a competent threat opposite of Keenan Allen 2 years in a row now. Based on his last season, Stevie Johnson appears to be best in the 3rd option role. Laquon Treadwell is the best receiver in the class and is a very good player. I’m not sure he’s “invest in him 3rd in the draft” good. What I am sure is that there isn’t this huge gap between Treadwell and the other receivers in the draft that most media has led us to believe. So this week i’ll write about the 3 receivers that are on his heels.
Josh Doctson is a big receiver at 6’3, but is a slender 195 pounds. He’s an interesting watch. Before the pass, he plays like a receiver you’d label as “small”, both in a positive and negative way. The same can be said after the catch. So let’s start there with Docton’s game.
Small ballThe good news with Doctson is that he wins at the line of scrimmage with his feet like a typical slot receiver would. On every level they teach you the same releases as far as footwork is concerned. 3 step releases: 1) Where you’re going 2) Where you’re not going 3) Where you’re going. In Doctson’s case, it’s as if he lulls you to sleep and then on his second step he explodes out of his cut to create separation.
Understanding how to alter your speed and tempo as a route runner is far more important than being able to run a 4.3 40 yard dash. The eyeball test tells you that Doctson is impressive at the line of scrimmage especially considering his size. Doctson wins at the beginning and top of his routes with quick, efficient footwork and head fakes. Combining this with tempo allows him to create separation. I’d encourage you to follow Matt Harmon on twitter. He does in-depth work on receivers, and does an incredible job of putting numbers into perspective. The table below is from his NFL Draft receiver primer.
What we’ll concentrate on here is the final column that compares Doctson’s success rate against press coverage. 83% is an outstanding number and helps paint the consistent picture of Doctson at the line of scrimmage on just how successful he is.
Ironically where both receivers have trouble at the line of scrimmage is not being physical enough or using their hands to disengage from contact against the defender. I’ve seen Doctson get hung up just enough to where it could translate as a concern. This is the best example and it comes on a touchdown because of course.
Doctson can’t go that many steps with a defender engaged on him and expect to win at the next level. In the vine as soon as the DB gets his hands on him he needs to use his left hand and swipe, slap or do something to get himself clean. An experienced corner at the next level will more than likely cut him off from getting to this ball because he’ll still be engaged.
Maximizing yards after the catch
Inconsistent. That’s the best way to describe Doctson. For whatever reason he’s labeled as a possession receiver by some but he is much faster than given credit for and I believe he’ll run sub 4.5 to prove that. There are plays where he’ll stiff arm a defender, run through a tackle and break away for a long gain.
Doctson has pulled that stunt off more than a handful of times the past 2 years. The frustrating part is where Doctson will give himself up after the catch. Whether it’s running out of bounds or having a 1-on-1 opportunity with a smaller DB and getting tackled. Won’t shake him, won’t try to run through him, nothing comes of it. I’m not looking for him to make 3 guys miss every time he has a chance to do so. I am looking for him to maximize every opportunity he gets and not leave yards on the field.
Adjusting and playing above the rim
As far-fetched as that seems, Doctson has tremendous ability to track the ball in the air, high point the pass, control himself mid-air, and come down with some spectacular catches. Is Doctson plays like a 5’9 receiver before and after the catch then he plays like a 7’1 receiver when the ball is in the air.
That’s a handful of acrobatic catches that look simple.Those catches away from his body are not easy by any stretch of the imagination and he makes them look routine. That’s a split second reaction you need to be able to react to a pass off target, locate it, then hang on through contact. Which is another area Doctson excels in.
Context in drops and contested catchesHe had 5 drops in the 5 games I charted. Without any context that sounds like a lot. He dropped 2 passes against Texas Tech. He was also targeted 25 times that game. In those games he was targeted 73 times and a lot of those games he had extra attention. I’m in the camp where drops can be overstated and in Doctson’s situation I’m not too worried about it at all.
Another trait we tend to over/under state is contested catches. It really depends on the type of receiver you are. In Doctson’s case, considering he’s going to be running the full route tree, it’s very important. Doctson being targeted so many times gave us a good sample size on his all around game, including contested catches. In the 5 game sample size he caught 19/24 contested catches opportunities. I had to recheck that because there’s no way a receiver is going to haul in just under 80% of their passes when a defender is draped over them or a safety is coming to knock their head off. Docston did exactly that.
His ability to make plays through contact and hold on after big hits is tops in the class.
Worth the waitDoctson will be a 24 year old rookie which likely means he is what he is at this point. Many of the weaknesses you read are “upright route runner”, “won’t break many tackles”, “didn’t run the full route tree”, and “lean frame and lacks strength.” The 1st 1 doesn’t really mean much considering he wins with his feet. As previously stated, where Doctson gets in trouble is not using his hands. He could have great pad level and it wouldn’t matter. No argument on the fact that Doctson doesn’t break tackles and lacks strength. I’ve seen the route tree thing a few times and that couldn’t be further from the truth. In each of the 5 games Doctson ran at least 5 or more routes. That’s far from an issue and he ti say he’s not a proficient route runner would be assuming this was the case because he played in a spread offense. Doctson “won” 53 of his 67 routes when you take away the screens. That’s good for 79% of his routes. You couldn’t convince me he’s a bad route runner.
The reason Doctson is worth the wait is because he’s 90% of Treadwell. He’s doesn’t have the same “juice” Treadwell does after the catch but they both leave a lot to be desired in this category to be honest. As a pure receiver, there’s not much, if anything, Treadwell does better than Doctson. He’s considerably stronger, but doesn’t separate as well, not as agile, nor is he better with the ball in the air. They’re even in a lot of areas and most of this comes down to Doctson’s age, which is fair.
If I’m drafting this year I’d wait on a receiver like Doctson who will be there at the end of the 1st or in the early 2nd. Doctson isn’t what you would call a blue chip prospect but he is a player without many flaws in his game. I have a hard time believing he won’t be successful at the next level due to his ability to excel in contested catching situations, adjust to poorly thrown passes, and play above the rim. Doctson can be 1 of the 10 best players in the draft when it’s all said and done. What Docston is really good at is what you need to be really good at in the NFL. He’s a nuanced enough route runner that he’ll continue to get open and if he figures out how to use his hands, look out.
AgamemnonLaquon Treadwell and the Chipotle Paradox
Written by Jeff Risdon on February 22, 2016
Ole Miss wideout Laquon Treadwell is widely regarded as the top prospect at his position for the 2016 NFL Draft. Most every national pundit and draftnik rates Treadwell as WR1 in a class where WR2-10 are eminently debatable.
As an evaluator, I pride myself on forging my own opinion. I trust my own eyes and what I’ve learned in covering every draft since 2004. I’ve sat with scouts watching games and picked their brains as to what they were looking at, not just the “what” but the “why”. Former players have helped me greatly in scouting specific positions, too.
Yet I’m not immune to the groupthink, nor do I try to be. If many evaluators I trust and respect are all seeing the same things in a player, I feel like I should probably see it too. It might take a different viewing lens to find it, perhaps watching different games or studying the broader context of the performances.
So when I see everyone else trumpeting Treadwell, I’m inclined to find the spark in others’ eyes.
Except I don’t see it.
Sure, I note the obvious. He’s a very impressive physical specimen for the position at 6’2” and 212 rippled pounds. He blocks better than most tight ends. Hell, he blocks better than most right tackles. Strong hands and the ability to extend his long arms to make the difficult catch? Check…
Laquon Treadwell's dope grab from yesterday! DoubleTap for more posts today!! (Vine by TOUCHDOWN) https://t.co/3fRmKcdO5A
— Emilio (@emihadad) February 20, 2016
A top, five-star recruit from Crete, IL (extreme southern Chicago hinterlands), the hype has been there for a long time. Ever since he took his wads of cash to Oxford, Treadwell has been hailed as a future, surefire NFL No. 1 wideout.
But I just don’t see it.
To me, Treadwell is like Chipotle. You know, the absurdly popular burrito restaurant where the lines stretch out the door while the adjacent Potbelly’s and Pei Wei’s have instant service? Where folks in my immediate family eat at least five meals a week, and hipsters boldly proliferate like bats to the cave at sunrise? Yeah, that Chipotle.
Except I don’t really like Chipotle.
Don’t get me wrong, Chipotle doesn’t suck. I’ll eat there without complaint. It beats the hell out of Taco Bell or those funky substances Jack In The Box calls tacos. I can’t even recall the last time I got food poisoning from efreebirds-walnut-creek-motorcycleating Chipotle, and I’ve been at least twice since Halloween.
However, if I’m going out for a burrito, I’m not defaulting to Chipotle like the vast majority of Americans under 50. I strongly preferred Freebirds when I lived in Houston and I may or may not have scheduled an inordinately long layover at Hobby Airport so I could sneak out and score some last year. I may or may not be salivating and getting the withdrawal shakes writing this.
Bullritos had better salsa choices and tastier chips, not to mention free Wifi, so they were next on the pecking order. Juan Big Burrito in League City drew me in more than a few times too.
Now I live in West Michigan, where Qdoba is the prime competitor. I’m not really a big fan of theirs either, mainly because I despise liquid cheese products and their queso is apparently the big draw. We have a local Baja which is great, independent from the chain of the same name. Their parking lot is more of a deathtrap than the local Wal-Mart (tangential sidebar–why is every Wal-Mart parking lot designed by a sadistic, blind and clueless handicapped monkey?) so I don’t get there very often. I like the Fat Burrito here in Holland but my God is that place aptly named!
These are all burrito places I prefer to Chipotle. When I tell most people that, they look at me like I just admitted to keeping a girl in a pit. I get those same virtual looks when I reveal my lack of love for Treadwell as a prospect.
I like Corey Coleman’s upside better, even if he doesn’t actually run routes, never blocks and makes Eric Ebron seem like Steve Largent when catching the ball. The concept of what Coleman could be greatly exceeds Treadwell’s ceiling, even if the odds of occurrence are about as high as Adam Sandler ever producing a movie not aimed at 14-year-old boys or the men who long to be one again. He’s the atomic fire sauce that either explodes into greatness in your mouth or leaves you with second-degree burns.
I prefer Sterling Shepard’s precision, competitiveness with the ball in the air and ability to create after the catch. His agility and short-area burst are a jaguar to Treadwell’s capybara, even though the latter is darn near impossible to stop with a full head of steam.
The Michael Thomas from Ohio State, the one who showed enough in college to merit a Combine invite and not everyone’s favorite sleeper/snub from Southern Miss, is about the same size as Treadwell but is better at making contested catches and most certainly runs faster, both off the line and in open spaces. He’s better at making catches below his waist and finding the end zone, too…
Treadwell last 2 years:
196 targets, 12 drops, 131 catches, 16 TDMichael Thomas last 2 years:
157 targets, 5 drops, 110 catches, 18 TD— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) February 12, 2016
Braxton Miller showed off moves during Senior Bowl week that would snap Treadwell’s leg once again if he tried them. For a 215-pound player to move with agility like that, you have to be intrigued…even if he isn’t a natural catcher and has only played the position for a year. As with Coleman, the upside dwarfs my perceived ceiling with Treadwell.
To me, Treadwell is Chipotle. He’s a largely reliable, satisfactory meal that many people are a little too overzealous in touting. But I just don’t get the sense that he’s something special. Everything I like about Treadwell, I can find another guy who offers the same entrée but with the chance that the overall menu is more diverse and com1118_bisp_Treadwell Austinplete.
I believe too many people are pre-programmed to love Treadwell. From the recruiting hype to the glorious de-cleating blocks to the outstanding one-handed catches and the way he treats pressing corners like Hulk Hogan does a tank top, it’s easy to fall in love with all that is good with Laquon Treadwell.
But as so many sycophants stand in line shoegazing at Chipotle, I think there are better choices out there that too many are too unwilling to try. This is where the herd mentality, the dreaded groupthink, becomes a real problem. Everyone has eaten at Chipotle so many times that it’s just the default, as Treadwell has become the default top wideout in this class.
It doesn’t have to be that way. Be bold. Try a local taqueria or a different national burrito joint. If you’re stuck sharing an Uber to Chipotle with a sweater-wearing colleague sporting $600 glasses, at least try and order something different. If you’re a carnitas guy, go for the chicken and this time add the veggies. If you normally get Sofritas, well, I can’t help you…
Think about why you really like Laquon Treadwell. Is it just because you feel obligated? Because so many in the upper realms of draft media–the guys who probably still haven’t seen Roger Lewis or Quinshad Davis play a single snap yet–have touted him as the best since last August?
If you arrive at the conclusion that Treadwell is indeed your perfect burrito, that’s great. Chipotle grew into ubiquity for good reason. Just don’t expect to see me standing behind you in that line.
Agamemnon
Is that before or after the
Big jettison ?….i still havent gotten used to seeing
“Los Angeles” Rams.w
vThat is current. Of course, that will increase when they resign some of their FAs. But still, they will end up being a young team once again.
Agamemnonhttp://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-hq/0ap3000000637233/Future-of-top-free-agent-quarterbacks
Top FA QBs.
AgamemnonReport: Virtually no chance WR Mohamed Sanu re-signs with Bengals
By Kyle Phelps
@KylePhelps92 on Feb 19, 2016, 10:47a 100
Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY SportsMohamed Sanu was interviewed on Sirius XM NFL Radio’s Late Hits to share his thoughts on his future with the Bengals, free agency, and potentially playing elsewhere.
Bengals wide receiver Mohamed Sanu joined SiriusXM yesterday to talk about free agency and the lack of communication between his agent and the team so far this offseason.
While that’s discouraging to hear, what’s more discouraging is a report from Alex Marvez of Fox Sports saying there’s “virtually no chance” Sanu re-signs with the Bengals.
Multiple sources told FOXSports.com that there is virtually no chance Sanu will re-sign with the Bengals. Sanu will instead pursue opportunities elsewhere when the free-agent signing period begins March 9…
Cleveland, Atlanta and the New York Giants are among the teams expected to express interest in signing Sanu, who has spent all four of his NFL seasons with the Bengals after being a 2012 third-round pick out of Rutgers. Sanu posted modest receiving totals last season with 33 catches for 394 yards as his role in the offense diminished with the return of wide receiver Marvin Jones and tight end Tyler Eifert from injuries that sidelined them in 2014.
On Sirius XM radio’s NFL hits, he told Alex MarVez and Phil Savage that he hasn’t had any meaningful talks with the Bengals yet about re-signing. “Mike’s talked to me,” Sanu said of his agent Mike McCartney. “He hasn’t really said anything about communication with the Bengals. We’re just being patient and just waiting to see what happens. You never know, as the next couple of weeks heat up, we’ll see what happens.”
It’s not exactly the most encouraging thing for Bengals fans who love what Sanu brings to the table, but it is also true that many free agents like Sanu don’t delve into serious contract talks until the free agency period has started.
Sanu has a bit more leverage with the Bengals than most No. 3 receivers have with their teams. As Marvez and Savage note in the interview, he is a “60, 70, maybe even 80 catch guy on another team”, despite his lack of opportunities with the Bengals due to their depth at receiver and strong run game.
A lack of touches could keep Sanu from re-signing with the Bengals if he wants a bigger opportunity elsewhere. As he notes in the interview, “When you’ve got so much talent on one team, it’s hard to get the ball to… so many talented guys. So, yeah, [going elsewhere] definitely crossed my mind.”
With so many weapons on the offense, it is true that guys like Sanu get their number of touches reduced in favor of other talented and productive players like A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones, Jeremy Hill, and Giovani Bernard. As much as the Bengals and their fans would love to have someone as talented as Sanu playing the No. 3 receiver role, there’s no getting around the fact that he’s capable of more.
There’s plenty of other teams out there that have salary cap room and could use a serious upgrade at one of the top receiver positions. For example, the Browns, Raiders, Jaguars, Giants, and 49ers are all teams with top ten salary cap space and more disposable money than the Bengals that would be able to offer. They all can also offer a significantly increased role than what the Bengals can offer. Yesterday, it was reported the Giants are interested in Sanu.
“We just gotta see how everything unfolds,” Sanu said about his future with the Bengals.
Sanu is probably going to be looking at a deal netting between $2.5 million and $6 million per year in free agency. This estimate could even be on the conservative side, given what Andrew Hawkins received with the Browns. Will the Bengals be willing to pay him that kind of money to continue being the third option at wide receiver? It seems unlikely, but crazier things have happened.
I thought Sanu might be in that equation.
AgamemnonJaylon Smith, OLB
School: Notre Dame | Conference: FBS Independents
College Experience: Junior | Hometown: Fort Wayne, IN
Height/Weight: 6-3 / 240 lbs.
Projected Ranking
Overall Position Proj. Rnd.
20 3 1Player Overview
Smith’s draft stock took a hit on New Year’s Day when he tore his anterior cruciate ligament and lateral collateral ligament in the Fighting Irish’s Fiesta Bowl loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes, but still he opted to declare early for the 2016 NFL Draft. He is recovering after surgery and expected to miss the 2016 season, but still has an immense skill-set that will have teams considering him in the first round.A player who Irish coach Brian Kelly said is the best he has ever coached, Smith was a consensus All-American in 2015. He tied his career high with 9.0 tackles for loss to go along with a career-high 115 tackles, a sack, five passes defensed and two fumble recoveries in 13 games before suffering his knee injury. That came on the heels of 111 tackles, 9.0 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and a pair of passes defensed as a sophomore.
Smith is a freakish athlete who makes plays on the football field that few others at the college level are capable of making. He has the range, instincts and competitive drive that makes him a highly sought after NFL prospect.
Notre Dame’s top tackler from 2014, Smith made most of the defensive calls as a true sophomore and separated himself as one of the top NFL prospects in the country.
Strengths Weaknesses
STRENGTHS: He is a greased up athlete with natural twitch and flexibility, showing balance, burst and excellent speed in pursuit. Scouts are enthralled with Smith’s explosiveness and it isn’t difficult to understand why.He reads plays quickly and keeps his eyes glued on the ball to collect himself in space and burst toward the ballcarrier with excellent closing speed. Shows tremendous secondary quickness to unhook himself from blocks and make up ground in a flash.
He might be the nation’s most forceful tackler, generating incredible power to knock ballcarriers back. Smith is every bit as fast and fluid as he is powerful, however, slipping by (or leaping over) would-be blockers in the running game and dropping effectively in coverage.
It is the ability to play back in coverage and rush the passer that makes Smith such an exciting prospect, as proponents of the 4-3 and 3-4, alike, will see him as a true three down defender.
WEAKNESSES: Smith lacks elite take-on strength for the position and can be late to stack-and-shed. Will take some false steps and needs to add a dash of discipline to his playing recipe. Needs to tweak his strike zone and tackling mechanics, preferring to hug-and-slam instead of spearing and driving.
Needs to do a better job finding the ball in coverage once his back is turned to the quarterback. Suffered a devastating left knee injury in his final collegiate contest that required surgery (Jan. 2016) to repair a torn ACL and LCL.
IN OUR VIEW: In today’s ultra-specialized NFL, defenses routinely substitute powerful linebackers on running downs and faster, more agile defenders on obvious passing plays. Teams won’t have to swap Smith out, however. He started all 39 games the last three seasons, but in a cruel twist of fate, Smith suffered a serious knee injury in the Fiesta Bowl, putting his draft stock in limbo based on his rehab.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/2082844/jaylon-smith
If I really wanted the best MLB I could get, I would draft this guy, Jaylon Smith. Like Gurley though, he wouldn’t be ready to start year one. You might even have to red shirt him a year.
AgamemnonIf anything, there is even less pressure to win now. Think honeymoon period. Think Fisher gets a honeymoon extension. imo
AgamemnonI think cutting those players was a ‘value move’.
I think they can make a reasonable effort to keep their FAs, even with the expected increase in contracts and still have about 10-16 million to try to sign some FAs for 2017 early. Players like Brockers, MacDonald, and Austin.
I hope they don’t pay a lot of money for other people’s FAs. imo
Agamemnonhttp://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000636218/article/estimated-2016-franchise-tag-figures
Estimated 2016 franchise tag figuresBy Kevin Patra
Tuesday marks the first day of a two-week window during which NFL teams can use the Franchise or Transition tag on players set to become free agents.
While we won’t have an exact figure until after the salary cap is officially set, we do have a guesstimation.
NFL Media’s Albert Breer reported in December that teams were given a projected 2016 cap of between $147 to $153 million. As Breer notes, the cap range given to teams for budgeting purposes tends to be on the low end. Therefore, if we use $153 million as our starting point (an increase of just under $9 million from last season) we can estimate the franchise tag cost for each position (transition tag in parenthesis).
Quarterback: $19.6 million ($17.5 million)
Defensive end: $15.4 million ($12.5 million)
Wide Receiver: $14.4 million ($12.0 million)
Linebacker: $14.0 million ($11.7 million)
Cornerback: $13.7 million ($11.7 million)
Offensive line: $13.5 million ($11.7 million)
Defensive tackle: $13.4 million ($10.7 million)
Running back: $11.5 million ($9.5 million)
Safety: $10.6 million ($9.0 million)
Tight End: $9.0 million ($7.6 million)
Kicker/Punter: $4.5 million ($4.0 million)If the salary cap rises even more than $153 million, these one-year figures would also increase accordingly.
Agamemnonsurprised by laurinaitis. man. feel like i’m watching the godfather or something.
Ian Rapaport hints they may be using some of that money for a QB.
interesting.
Only if they make a run for Bradford. 😉
AgamemnonFisher said in one of his interviews in LA, that the Rams might again be the youngest team in the NFL.
Agamemnonhttp://www.stltoday.com/sports/football/professional/updated-rams-release-laurinaitis-long-cook/article_71283598-349d-50c0-99d8-9b5828820849.html
(Updated) Rams release Laurinaitis, Long, Cook
2 hours ago • By Ben FredericksonTwo of the longest-tenured St. Louis Rams were released by the now-Los Angeles Rams in a move that went beyond mere salary cap measures on Friday.
Linebacker James Laurinaitis and defensive end Chris Long have been let go, along with tight end Jared Cook, the team announced.
The moves save the Rams $22.975 million in salary cap space, broken down as follows: Long ($11.75 million), Cook ($5.7 million), Laurinaitis ($5.525 million).
Even before Friday’s moves the Rams already were swimming in salary cap space, with only $118 million committed towards the 2016 cap in what is expected to be a cap of $155 million. So that’s $37 million of salary cap space alone, far more than the Rams had in any of their 21 offseasons in St. Louis.
Throw in about $6 million in leftover 2015 cap room that can be carried over to 2016 at the start of the league year next month. plus the $22.975 million saved by releasing Long, Laurinaitis, and Cook _ and that gives the Rams roughly $66 million in cap space.
So yes,, it looks like the team plans to make a big free-agent splash as it enters its first year back in southern California.
“This is the time of year when all NFL teams are faced with difficult decisions regarding their veteran players,” coach Jeff Fisher said in a statement released by the team. “Chris and James are the epitome of what it means to be a pro in this league and it’s been an honor to coach them both. They’ve been the pillars of our defense for many years and not enough can be said of their love for the game and for their teammates.
“Beyond the field, they took pride in mentoring the younger players and doing their part to make a real difference in the St. Louis community. We will always be grateful for James and Chris’ unselfish commitment to the Rams and wish them the best moving forward.”
Long posted the following message to his Instagram page:
“Just heard that I’m about to be unemployed. I just want to personally and humbly thank the city of St. Louis again for all your support over 8 years. I love y’all so much for sticking with me through the ups and downs.
“I also want to thank our LA fans, and although I may never join you in SoCal, just know that I’ll always appreciate you.
“Bottom line is, this is a production business. No excuses, the last two years have been (bleep). It’s been painful to experience because I care deeply about my performance and my responsibility to my teammates. Before the last two years I’m very proud of what I was able to accomplish in St. Louis. I’m not surprised, but it doesn’t make it any easier to leave your family.
“I look forward to the next chapter. Hungry and a lot to prove all over again. First I’m gonna have a beer. ”
Long, drafted second overall by the Rams in 2008, started 95 of 114 games during his career. He recorded more than 300 tackles and 54.5 sacks. He led the team in sacks in 2011 and 2012.
Laurinaitis, a Ram since the second round of the 2009 draft, led the team in tackles through his first four seasons. Last season, he became the franchise’s all-time leading tackler.
Cook joined the Rams as a free agent during the 2013 offseason, but never became the playmaker Rams fans hoped. He did set franchise records for most receiving yards by a tight end in a single season (672 in 2013) and in a single game (141 vs. Arizona on Sept. 8, 2013). He totaled 142 receptions for 1,786 yards and eight touchdowns as a Ram.
“Jared made an immediate impact when he joined the team in 2013,” Fisher said. “It’s been a pleasure watching him grow from the time I drafted him in Tennessee to seeing him set franchise records in St. Louis. Like Chris and James, he’s been a mainstay in the community and his contributions are commendable. We hope for the best for Jared and his family as he embarks on the next steps of his career.”
AgamemnonI think the Rams would still be able to sign most everybody that they wanted. But, they are going to have to look closer at cutting players like Saffold and Laurinaitis.
Saffold survived, Long and Laurinaitis didn’t. Cook was a given.
AgamemnonNFL
Find this article at:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000637036/article/combine-top-five-candidates-to-break-chris-johnsons-40-record
Combine: Top five candidates to break Chris Johnson’s 40 recordBy Daniel Jeremiah
NFL Media analyst
Published: Feb. 18, 2016 at 12:24 p.m.
Updated: Feb. 18, 2016 at 12:50 p.m.As the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine quickly approaches (the first players arrive in Indianapolis on Tuesday, Feb. 23), it’s time to take a look at a few players who could challenge Chris Johnson’s 40-yard-dash record (4.24 seconds) in Indianapolis.
We know from past combines that Johnson pays attention to the proceedings. Who are some of the guys who could make CJ2K sweat? Here are my top candidates …
NFL Scouting CombineDates: Feb. 23-29
TV: NFL Network and NFL Combine LiveNOTE: Click on each player’s name for a full combine scouting report.
1) Kolby Listenbee, WR, TCUListenbee is my choice to run the fastest 40-yard dash in Indy. He has a legitimate track background at TCU, having posted a 10.04-second 100-meter time in 2015. I don’t know if he’ll be able to set the record, but I do think he is likely to run 4.30 or better. I predict Listenbee, who averaged a whopping 19.9 yards per catch for the Horned Frogs last season, will gain some traction in scouting circles after the combine. And ultimately, I believe he will be drafted in the third or fourth round.
2) LeShaun Sims, CB, Southern UtahNFL scouts clocked Sims in the mid 4.3’s last spring. Now that he’s had a couple months to train for the 40, he should be able to lower that time in Indianapolis. Sims, who offers solid a size-speed combo at the CB position, projects as a fourth/fifth-round pick in April.
3) Will Fuller, WR, Notre DameFuller’s speed is easy to notice on tape. USC cornerback Adoree’ Jackson is an outstanding track athlete for the Trojans, and Fuller ran away from him with ease in their meeting last October. The start will be crucial, but I think he’s capable of posting a time in the mid-4.3s. Fuller, a big-play machine who scored 29 touchdowns during his last two years in South Bend, cracked my initial list of the top 50 prospects for 2016 NFL Draft. (Related note: I’ll be providing an updated ranking next week.)
4) Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio StateOhio State has more 2016 NFL prospects than any other team in the country — and every time I watch Buckeyes film, Miller looks like the fastest player on the field. OSU coaches have told scouts that they’ve timed Miller in the mid-4.3s. He definitely looked that fast at the Senior Bowl practices. I believe he’s likely to land in the second round of the upcoming draft, as an enticing athlete who’s still learning the receiver position. (Remember, Miller was twice named Big Ten MVP as the Buckeyes’ starting quarterback.)
5) Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida StateRamsey is an elite talent on the football field, but he was also a track star at FSU. He won the ACC long-jump title in both indoor and outdoor track. He also placed seventh in the conference in the 100 meter, posting a time of 10.61. He might not run the top 40 time in Indy, but his overall workout will be outstanding. Bottom line: He’s one of the most gifted players in this entire draft class. In my latest mock draft, I have him going to the San Diego Chargers with the third overall pick.
Three more burners to watch: Artie Burns, CB, Miami; Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State; Kevon Seymour, CB, USC.
Follow Daniel Jeremiah on Twitter @MoveTheSticks.
Listenbee, is one of my dark horse WRs. This seems to be the sort of WR Pitt. takes in the mid rounds and he becomes a star.
AgamemnonI think Keenum arm is weak and he is inaccurate. Of course, both those statements are relative. I think he is good enough for the Rams to make the playoffs. I think he will never be our QB of the future. So, like Fisher, he is my QB until I find a better one and I am looking really really hard. 😉
AgamemnonHow $1 billion in cap space could alter NFL free agency
11:54 AM ETKevin SeifertNFL Nation
If you’re even moderately interested in NFL contracts, you know the salary cap has risen $10 million in each of the past two years. You’ve probably heard it will go up at least that much in 2016, giving it a 25 percent hike since 2013.
What you might not realize, however, is the cumulative effect of that growth and how it could change NFL free agency — if all corners of the industry catch on.
Here’s the bottom line: Give or take, there will be $1 billion in salary-cap space available when the market opens on March 9. That’s a massive and unprecedented number, enough to pay the rosters of six full teams and an amount that will gift market-blowing contracts to the second- and third-tier players typically available.
As the chart shows, ESPN Stats & Information projects six teams having more than $50 million in cap space, and the median team will have $25 million based on a cap estimate of $154 million per team. (The precise cap limit might not be finalized for another two weeks.)
“This thing is just going to explode,” said Joe Banner, the former Eagles and Browns executive who is now an ESPN analyst. “People are just not realizing what is sort of already happening and will keep happening.”
Banner has been sounding the alarm on his Twitter feed for months, noting the steady rise of television rights fees and new revenue from over-the-top streaming and the league’s return to Los Angeles, and suggesting that the annual cap surge is here to stay. He has been highly critical of agents and players who have re-signed with teams during this exclusive negotiating period, in essence rejecting the long-held paradigm that players almost always get their best offers from their current teams.
“With this much money available,” Banner said, “you’re going to be saying in free agency, ‘This player got more than I thought he could ever get’ if you have a good idea of who he is comparable to in the market. Guys are just going to be getting big increases over that.”
(In a deep analysis this week, the website Over The Cap projected the increase at 20 percent on average. In other words, a player whose market comparison suggests he should get $10 million per season will be able to push it via bidding up to $12 million.)
The power of a flush open market was apparent but largely unnoticed last year. In signing cornerback Buster Skrine, the Jets blew past the top market value of $4 million per season for a nickel cornerback and paid him $6.25 million annually, an increase of 56 percent. Based on three-year averages, the Dolphins paid defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh a contract worth more than 40 percent what the Buccaneers paid Gerald McCoy just five months earlier. The Raiders made Rodney Hudson the NFL’s second-highest paid center at $8.9 million per year, not because he is an elite player but because he was the best center available.
So, who stands to cash in next month?
“Everybody who hits the market,” Banner said. “It’s that simple. Someone has to get all this money. To me, it’s almost malpractice not to see what could happen on the market. The money is going to be there. It has to be.”
Some would say the Jets overpaid for Buster Skrine last offseason, given that he was their nickel cornerback. Ed Mulholland/USA TODAY SportsI realize that the only people who care whether an NFL player makes $10 million or $12 million per year are fellow players, agents, media members and the subset of fans who follow contract negotiations as an offseason competition of sorts. To me, the true value of any cap discussion is the extent to which it impacts player movement. We all care about who plays for whom. And these numbers suggest that expectations for NFL free agency could change in the future if more players sit tight and wait for the market to open.
Some would get the franchise tag, of course. Others might feel compelled to jump on an offer made a year before they are eligible for unrestricted free agency. But for the rest, patience might work — even for those who could never contemplate playing for another team.
“If a team comes to you early and offers you money now, that means they want you badly,” Banner said. “Players shouldn’t forget that at this time of year.”
Two teams have persuaded key players to do just that in recent weeks. The Eagles have signed four veterans to extensions, including defensive end Vinny Curry as he was approaching free agency. The Broncos, meanwhile, persuaded defensive lineman Derek Wolfe to sign last month rather than test the market.
If Banner’s theory holds, those deals will be dwarfed in free agency by players of equal or lesser skill. So it’s not impossible to envision a future when a Curry or a Wolfe waits for the market to open. The landscape would be populated by more impact players, pushing the flawed castoffs further down the chain and giving teams who hope to improve quickly — or even just satisfy the NFL’s spending floor — a better chance.
In other words, these annual salary-cap increases wouldn’t just make a few players disproportionately richer. They could alter the NFL’s basic team-building model as well, if the industry catches on. Imagine big-time free agency as a way to truly improve a cap-rich team, rather than being simply a vehicle for overpaying another team’s discards. Stay tuned.
If contracts are expected to be 20% higher than in past years, it might explain why the Rams haven’t signed any potential free agents. Also, if it is true, we should see more teams tagging players. imo
I think the Rams would still be able to sign most everybody that they wanted. But, they are going to have to look closer at cutting players like Saffold and Laurinaitis.
Agamemnon
