press & others (including McV) set up the Seattle game

The Seahawks are allowing 362 passing yards per game, which is ~52 MORE than any other team in the NFL.

Jared Goff, now is the time to get back on track https://t.co/mFSr46xQQd

— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) November 9, 2020

Rams see a blueprint for beating the Seahawks, but can they execute it?

Jourdan Rodrigue

https://theathletic.com/2187955/2020/11/11/rams-seahawks-blitz-jared-goff/?source=emp_shared_article

THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — After the Rams lost to the Dolphins in Week 8, fans grimaced as shades of the Super Bowl loss to the Patriots flashed through their memories.

Another loss at the hands of a Brian Flores-coached defense. Could Miami’s Cover 0 blitz, which completely discombobulated Jared Goff and the Rams’ offense, be a blueprint for others during a tough second half of the 2020 season?

But it’s not just Rams fans who are a little clenched. The Seahawks, who visit SoFi Stadium on Sunday, seem to have a bit of a blueprint on them, too. Teams are passing more than ever against Seattle — the 366 attempts against leads the NFL and is on pace to eclipse the attempts against it in 2019 (598) — and with good reason. The Seahawks’ defense is last in the league in passing yards allowed per game, by a wide margin, with 362.1.

On his call with Los Angeles media on Wednesday, Seattle coach Pete Carroll seemed to come to grips with those numbers, which also are up league-wide.

“We’ve seen so many passes in the fourth quarter of games,” he said. “We’ve seen just way more throwing than we’re used to seeing. We’ve been ahead a lot, so we’ve had a lot of opponents in catch-up mode, but just seen a lot of (the) throwing game — and people have been satisfied doing it — so a lot of points being scored …

“I don’t know (league-wide) numbers as far as throws, but we (as a team) are certainly seeing a ton more.”

After a loss in Week 9, Carroll expressed surprise that the Bills abandoned their running game and instead threw the ball 38 times for 415 yards (which matched Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen’s season high in yards but marked just his fourth-most passing attempts in a game this season). Allen’s success against the Seahawks’ zone coverage forced them into heavier pressure situations, and the Bills just kept passing, at that point against more favorable man coverage.

So, the Rams should pass a ton, right? One would think, but we know it’s never that simple.

While the Rams rank second in the NFL in rushing DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, it has been hard to peg when Sean McVay will run the ball (and with which running back) or pass. Against Buffalo in Week 3, his decision to keep running the ball, even in the face of a big deficit, remains his best move of the season, and it led to a 29-point Rams comeback that ultimately fell short on the game’s final play.

But against Miami, McVay seemed to completely abandon the run in favor of a 61-pass performance from Goff, who turned the ball over four times and missed some usually automatic throws. The Miami scenario fell into traditional football logic, which dictates passing a lot when facing a deficit, while the Buffalo game did not.

Even with these inconsistencies, the Rams are still outpacing their rushing attempts from 2019, with an average of 31 carries per game as opposed to 25 per game last season. It’s not likely McVay will completely forsake the run, either, because it predicates much of what they accomplish in the air.

“For us, I think we’re at our best when we are balanced,” McVay said this week, “when we’ve got the ability to have (our) runs go with some of the stuff (we’re) doing in the pass game.”

McVay also cautioned that the Seahawks’ loss to the Bills was “just one game,” and that the Rams’ staff must evaluate the total body of work.

Spoiler alert: That still dictates a heavier passing attack. Teams have passed for 350 yards or more against the Seahawks in six of their eight games.

Washington native Cooper Kupp should be a go-to target for Goff this week. The Seahawks have given up a whopping 977 yards to slot receivers this season, according to Pro Football Focus. (For context, the Rams’ secondary has given up 1,577 yards total.) Kupp was limited in practice on Wednesday due to wrist and oblique injuries suffered in Week 8 (he was able to come back into that game), but McVay expects him to play on Sunday.

Kupp, in addition to Woods and the Rams’ available running backs, should be quick-out options to break what likely be will increased blitz pressure from Seattle’s defense, as they try to imitate Miami’s attack. The Seahawks blitz on approximately 32 percent of dropbacks, according to Pro Football Reference, and have notably increased that pressure over the last two weeks. Against the Bills, the Seahawks, even with a weak secondary, were in Cover 0 for nearly 12 percent of their defensive snaps and in Cover 1 for nearly 34 percent, according to Pro Football Focus, thus leaving their defensive backs in those disadvantageous man situations.

If the Rams can actually beat the blitz, those opportunities would be tantalizing, especially for Woods and Kupp.

“(Our receivers) have done a good job against man coverage in the last few years, since we’ve been together,” Goff said. “And I feel good with all of them.”

Meanwhile, in practice this week it has been pretty obvious that the Rams are expecting an increase in pressure, if not from the Seahawks, then certainly in other games down the stretch.

Quarterbacks work through pressure drills in every practice, but on Wednesday, the Rams’ sequences were interesting. Coaches and assistants put on pencil-pads and batted Goff and the backup quarterbacks with them while also bringing in an extra guy in to wave the pad in throwing lanes and in the QBs’ faces. The quarterbacks then dumped the ball off quickly over the top to a receiver or running back.

The Rams did not beat Miami’s blitz, but they have the players to do so. And this week they can increase screens, short passes and the like while featuring catch-and-run receivers and running backs who can record big yardage after the catch. If an offense can beat a blitz once or twice with such a play, it backs a defense up and widens it out, therefore giving the offense a little more room to develop longer plays and also to run the ball.

But the Rams have to execute, and that has been an issue, especially in terms of ball security. All four of Goff’s turnovers against Miami were in the first half, against blitz pressure, and the Rams did not go to a short-passing game until it was too late.

“Other than points, there is no greater indicator of winning and losing games (than turnovers),” McVay said. “We’re minus-two for the season, and that’s not nearly good enough. … Offensively, we have to take much better care of the football.

“That’s something that, if we want to be the football team that I expect us and anticipate us to to be in this second half of the season, we have to be better in that phase of the game. … Really, when you look at it, that is why we lost against the Dolphins. You can look at a lot of different things, but turnovers and inability to handle that (zero) pressure. … We’ve moved on from it, but we certainly didn’t ignore it.”

Around The NFL@AroundTheNFL
@greggrosenthal’s Week 10 game picks: Rams top Seahawks; Vikings over Bears

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-10-game-picks-colts-nip-titans-rams-top-seahawks?campaign=Twitter_atn

Los Angeles Rams 30, Seattle Seahawks 27

Pete Carroll is 2-4 vs. Sean McVay, struggling against L.A. even during the Rams’ worst days of December 2019. Add whiz kid Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley to the mix against a Seahawks offensive line trending the wrong way, and the Rams have more ways to win.

Will the Rams follow the Bills down the pass-happy path to picking Seattle apart? Or will they ground and pound with the best rushing attack the NFL has to offer, perhaps limiting Russell Wilson's opportunities in the process?https://t.co/LLQr5wzkIv

— J.B. Long (@JB_Long) November 14, 2020