The X Factors at the Top of the Draft
Peter King
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/03/30/nfl-2016-draft-rams-trade-paxton-lynch-jalen-ramsey
Growing interest in Paxton Lynch and Jalen Ramsey—and a potential major move by the Rams for a quarterback—could shake up how the first picks play out
The draft kicks off four weeks from Thursday, and the frenzy’s been a little slow to build. But let’s do something about that, shall we?
Four notes about the draft (not meaning to usurp Robert Klemko’s superb weekly draft column at The MMQB, which is newsy every time), and what I see a month out, will follow.
First: This draft doesn’t have quite the buzz of some recent drafts because there aren’t the megastars at the top that there were in 2012 (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III) or 2015 (Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota). Carson Wentz and Jared Goff are each very good quarterback prospects, but they’re not the clear 1-2 picks the others were as those drafts drew near. Which leads me to my first note.
Will some team pay Tennessee 75 cents on the dollar for the first overall pick? Most of the front-office people I talk to are dubious that Tennessee GM Jon Robinson, who is trying to create a market for the top pick in the draft, will be able to get an offer rich enough to tempt him to deal it. After Mississippi tackle Laremy Tunsil’s predictably strong pro day performance in Oxford on Monday, Robinson can feel good about eschewing all offers and sitting there and making the obvious pick—a left tackle to help protect his franchise quarterback for the next decade. To me, there are three big X factors in a trade that could shake up the top of the first round: Paxton Lynch, the Los Angeles Rams and Jalen Ramsey. Explanations follow.
Les Snead is the GM most likely to deal, judging by the Rams’ recent history. Snead has been the most active prime-pick trader recently. In his four drafts since taking the Rams’ job, Snead has traded eight times in the top 50 picks of drafts, more than any of his peers since 2012. He’s traded down with the second, sixth, 22nd, 41st, 44th and 45th picks, and traded up with the 16th pick (in 2013, to get Tavon Austin at number eight), and acquired the 43rd pick in this year’s draft, from Philadelphia as part of the Sam Bradford-Nick Foles deal. Imagine averaging two big trades per draft season. That’s what Snead has done. So he won’t be shy if he thinks he wants to jump up to get a quarterback. For all the trades he’s made, Snead has never made a bold move to get a quarterback (unless you consider snagging Foles to be bold; in fact, it’s probably bolder that he traded Bradford than that he acquired Foles). So don’t be surprised if Snead goes for a quarterback, either trading up for Wentz or Goff late in April, or sitting where he is at pick 15 and taking the third QB on most boards, Lynch of Memphis.
Paxton Lynch, if he works out well for teams, could tempt a club like the Rams to deal up, or risk staying put, to try to get him. The Rams like Lynch. They won’t know whether they love Lynch until they work him out a couple of weeks down the road. But keep this in mind: The Rams like big quarterbacks with the ability to move, and that’s Lynch. And to trade up for one of the two primo guys, Goff or Wentz, would cost at least the Rams’ first two picks this year and a first-rounder next year. For a man who loves picks the way Snead does, I’d be surprised if he surrendered next year’s one. Then again, he’s never been afraid of making a stunning trade. I would place a lot of stock on the Rams’ private workout of Lynch in mid-April. Lynch’s value could be smack dab where the Rams pick, unless his stock rises with his April 6 pro day at Memphis. It’ll be interesting to see which coaches, if any, on new staffs—like Hue Jackson in Cleveland and Chip Kelly in San Francisco—interrupt the first day of work with their new teams to attend the Lynch workout.
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Agamemnon
