Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Rams Huddle › On 2 former Rams qbs (Bradford, Keenum)
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June 27, 2017 at 1:20 am #70447znModerator
from The 2016-17 Deep Ball Project
The 2016-17 Deep Ball Project (Part 1/3)
Welcome to the 2016-17 edition of the Deep Ball Project. For three years and counting, I’ve researched quarterbacks throwing the long ball, watching thousands of passes to determine which QBs could throw and which could not.
With each new edition, I like to add new features that spice up the articles. For this year’s project, I included throws of both 16+ air yards (anything 16 yards or more) and 20+ air yards due to demand.
With that in mind, here are some notes you’ll want to keep track of when reading this article.
Notes
-The minimum requirement for a quarterback to be on the Deep Ball Project is to have started at least 8 games. Quarterbacks that played in 8 games but started in less than 8 do not count.
-The following passes were excluded from the Deep Ball Project: 1) passes on plays that resulted in pass interference (except for ones that were declined WITHOUT another penalty existing), 2) passes that were tipped before they reach 16 air yards, 3) passes intentionally thrown away, and 4) passes where there was a miscommunication between the quarterback and the receiver.
-The key stat to note is NOT yards or touchdowns, but rather accuracy percentage. Whereas completion percentage recognized the percentage of passes completed, accuracy percentage recognizes the amount of passes that were accurate regardless if they were complete or incomplete.
-Ultimately, while accuracy percentage is THE most crucial stat on the Deep Ball Project, the eye test is what matters most. The quality of the misses and makes count when charting.
-The highest graded QBs are generally the ones with the highest accuracy percentage. Vice versa for the lowest graded.
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Sam Bradford (Minnesota Vikings)
Accuracy Percentage On 16+ Throws: 66.7% (1st)
Accuracy Percentage on 20+ Throws: 59.1% (3rd)When the Vikings traded for Sam Bradford to backup the injured Teddy Bridgewater before the 2016 season began, it was met with a polarized reception. The tide changed when the Vikings started 5-0, but came back when they finished the season 8-8, with much of the criticism coming at the front office for trading for Bradford.
All things considered, however, you just may be surprised by Bradford’s downfield passing. His reputation is that of a short passer, but that’s unearned. Playing behind the worst offensive line in the league, little time is given for Bradford to develop his reads or the receivers to progress on their routes, leading to missed opportunities and sacks.
But when Bradford was able to release the ball, he did it with extreme efficiency. If you’re aware of my past work, you’ll know Bradford was graded highly in the 2015-16 DBP. Usually, there’s nowhere to go but down, but Bradford found a way to go up, further increasing his accuracy with tight, precise downfield bombs hitting receivers in stride and away from defenders. He finished with the highest overall downfield accuracy in 2016, with 66.7% of his passes being accurate.
Bradford’s downfield passing isn’t just underrated, good, very good, really good, or great. It’s sensational. Look for yourself and see a quarterback with tremendous deep passing ability.
FINAL GRADE: A+
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Case Keenum (Los Angeles Rams)
Accuracy Percentage On 16+ Throws: 52.4% (13th)
Accuracy Percentage on 20+ Throws: 46.7% (13th)After experiencing Case Keenum’s deep throws in 2016, I entered a state of shock, like in the movie Amadeus.
This was a bad quarterback making good throws. This was a bad quarterback with the 13th most accurate overall deep ball and the 13th highest accuracy percentage on 20+ throws. Why him, though? Why not better passers like Tom Brady or Marcus Mariota? Why was Case Keenum so blessed?
Sure, there’s some trash, but I just couldn’t believe what I was seeing. Nothing was painful, and I actually enjoyed what I was seeing. Not great, but not bad either. And now that you’ve looked at this entry, you’ll be just as confused as I am.
FINAL GRADE: C+
June 27, 2017 at 11:53 am #70456joemadParticipantAccuracy Percentage On 16+ Throws: 66.7% (1st)
Accuracy Percentage on 20+ Throws: 59.1% (3rd)Final Grade A+
Traded for Nick Foles…… WOW…… I wonder where Foles ranks on this chart?
June 27, 2017 at 12:05 pm #70458wvParticipantWell, I’m just not a Bradford fan. I cant quite put my finger on it, but there’s just something about him i dont much like. Its just a ‘gut’ thing for me. I would not want him on my team.
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vJune 27, 2017 at 12:48 pm #70459nittany ramModeratorWell, I’m just not a Bradford fan. I cant quite put my finger on it, but there’s just something about him i dont much like. Its just a ‘gut’ thing for me. I would not want him on my team.
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vSo, because you have Russell Wilson on your team you think that gives you liberty to bash Bradford?
Let me tell you something, fella…you could do a lot worse than Bradford.
June 27, 2017 at 1:36 pm #70460znModeratoryou could do a lot worse than Bradford.
I can name 5 different quarterbacks (excluding Goff) who are living proof of that.
It;’s too soon to include Goff and my bet is that he ultimately won’t be one of those.
June 27, 2017 at 3:29 pm #70461nittany ramModeratoryou could do a lot worse than Bradford.
I can name 5 different quarterbacks (excluding Goff) who are living proof of that.
It;’s too soon to include Goff and my bet is that he ultimately won’t be one of those.
I assume you mean 5 different recent Rams QBs. Because if you just mean QBs then there’s at least 10 starting QBs in the NFC alone I’d take Bradford over.
June 27, 2017 at 4:17 pm #70462znModeratorI assume you mean 5 different recent Rams QBs.
Yeah, Clemens Davis Hill Foles Keenum.
As in:
you could do a lot worse than Bradford.
Tell me about it.
July 4, 2017 at 10:34 pm #70714znModeratorfrom ANALYZING 2016’S BEST QUARTERBACK AT EVERY PFF SIGNATURE STAT
PFF takes an in-depth look at the 2016 season’s top quarterbacks based upon PFF’s exclusive signature statshttps://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-analyzing-2016s-best-quarterback-at-every-pff-signature-stat/
PFF’s Signature Stats are unique metrics tailored to each position group that go far beyond the traditional box score statistics. In the case of the quarterback position, signature stats determine things like which quarterback was the best throwing the deep ball, who performed at a high level when under pressure, and a number of other situational statistics you can’t find anywhere else.
With that data at our disposal, we take a look back at the 2016 season and highlight which quarterback excelled in each area, according to PFF’s Signature Stats.
Adjusted Completion Percentage
A quarterback’s completion percentage rarely tells the whole story, and that’s why PFF has developed a method that gives a true representation of how accurate a QB’s passes are.
The PFF Adjusted Completion Percentage accounts for dropped passes, throw aways, spiked balls, batted passes and passes where the quarterback was hit while they threw the ball – factors that hurt the quarterback’s completion percentage but don’t help show how truly accurate they are.
With that in mind, who was the NFL’s most accurate passer last season? That title belongs to Minnesota’s Sam Bradford at an 80.9 percent adjusted completion rate. Bradford was the only quarterback in the league to break the 80 percent threshold, narrowly edging out the likes of Drew Brees (79.8), Tom Brady (78.5) and Matt Ryan (78.4).
July 13, 2017 at 7:11 pm #70937znModeratorfrom Post-Hype All-Stars: Nine guys set for (late) breakout
Gregg Rosenthal
The Post-Hype All-Star Team is a collection of players ready to emerge, just as expectations for them have died down.
Sam Bradford, QB, Minnesota Vikings: He’s not here for setting the all-time completion percentage record in a dink-and-dunk offense designed to cover up leaky linemen. He’s here because he quietly excelled last season in areas he was once mocked for. ProFootball Focus’ numbers showed Bradford was the most accurate passer under pressure and most accurate on throws over 20 yards downfield.
July 26, 2017 at 8:55 pm #71287znModeratorfrom THE GUT CHECK NO. 405: 10 POTENTIAL TRAINING CAMP RISERS
Matt Waldman examines 10 players he’s monitoring during training camp and expects good things.1. SAM BRADFORD
Bradford was an excellent quarterback prospect at Oklahoma who landed with Jeff Fisher’s turnstile of less imaginative offenses (whether that was Fisher’s influence or the coaches) and underwhelming offensive line. Thanks to injuries to himself and teammates and turnover of personnel, Bradford has been unable to develop a rapport with any of his offenses in three different stops. It’s only one of several reasons why his 2016 performance is quietly impressive.
Bradford arrived in Minnesota in September well after the team had spent months working with Teddy Bridgewater and Shaun Hill in Norv Turner’s offense. Mike Zimmer asked Turner to adjust his offense to what Bradford does well, but those are significant adjustments to make during the first month of the season and Turner was not adaptable.
This is a common mindset for old-school coordinators and coaches who believe they’ve earned jobs on the basis of their schemes more so than their leadership. They also let that perception get ingrained by not displaying the skills to excel beyond what they know and bounce from team to team as recycled coaching material.
Turner knows football and he’d be a fantastic offensive mind to learn about football. However, the track record shows that Turner is not adaptable with his scheme or as a leader. He reportedly did not like to adjust his scheme to players in order to maximize what the player could do. Instead, he preferred players rise to the scheme.
While I get where Turner is coming from, it doesn’t help a team improve fast enough if not everyone is bought into what Turner is selling. Zimmer and Turner could not agree on the changes that needed to be made and Turner quit before it became a huge media issue. I can respect Turner’s decision because many coaches would have behaved in a dysfunctional manner that could have hurt the team even more.
Even so, it meant Bradford and the Vikings were dealing with a new offensive coach, adjustments to the scheme, an injured offensive line that was serviceable at best when healthy, its franchise runner suffered a knee injury, and its best receiver (Diggs) suffered a groin injury at the end of the month.
Despite all of these issues, Bradford completed 71 percent of his passes and posted a 20-to-5 TD-to-INT performance in 15 games. Bradford did this with an off-brand, injured version of Odell Beckham, Jr. and Eli Manning was statistically worse with the real deal.
I was impressed with Bradford’s poise in the pocket. He made some difficult throws under pressure and did so with anticipation and touch. If Bradford’s surrounding talent stays healthy this month, I have to consider bumping him up my rankings and even incorporate him as a late-round QB2 in leagues where I embrace a greater amount of risk.
I’m not expecting Bradford to shock fantasy football with a top-10 QB performance this year, but I think a top-15 performance is far more reasonable than his ADP suggests.
Now I just need Josh Gordon to figure things out so I might enjoy some of my dynasty leagues a little more.
September 12, 2017 at 11:54 pm #74269znModeratorSeptember 13, 2017 at 6:11 pm #74281InvaderRamModeratori think bradford’s good. i think keeping him at the time was the better choice. but at this point i think i take goff instead.
i still want to see how he does this season, but as of now. yeah i like goff. that doesn’t mean i didn’t like bradford at the time. i just get this feeling that goff has more in his toolset. that’s really just a feeling though. not based on anything rational. probably just the homer in me talking.
September 17, 2017 at 2:14 pm #74447znModeratorWell turns out the thread title was unintentionally ironic.
Bradford has knee issues and isn’t starting. Keenum isn’t doing that well so far.
October 10, 2017 at 12:40 pm #75897znModeratorMonday night Keenum was 17 of 21 (81%) with one TD and a qb rating of 110.3. He has an overall qb rating of 97.6 on 3 starts with 4 TDs and 0 Ints.
What’s the difference between Keenum 2016 and Keenum 2017?
Simple. A running game.
Keenum’s 2 wins with the Vikes, they got 125 or more yards rushing. The one loss, it was under 90.
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