Luck's new contract

6-year deal $139 million

I assume that includes 2016, both in the money reported and the years.

If so that makes it an on-avg. 23.3 M dollar deal.

Comparing him to others in his contract class (young starting qbs and their 2nd contracts), that’s just a bit above Wilson’s 21.9 a year.

This suggests that by the time Goff comes up, the top avg. annual amount for deals like that will be in the 24-25 M range.

…

Agent’s Take: How Andrew Luck’s mega-deal sets the table for these 7 QBs
Or how Matthew Stafford could become the NFL’s highest-paid player in 2017

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-how-andrew-lucks-mega-deal-sets-the-table-for-these-7-qbs/

Here’s a look at the quarterbacks who could reap the benefit from Luck’s new contract in the next couple of years.

Drew Brees QB / New Orleans Saints

Conventional wisdom suggested that the Saints would sign Brees to an extension before free agency started on March 9 to lower his league-high $30 million 2016 cap number since he is entering the final year of his five-year, $100 million contract. That deal signed in 2012 made him the NFL’s first $20 million man and re-set the league’s pay scale. A new deal would have given the Saints more flexibility to improve the team and its porous defense.

An agreement would have already been reached if Brees was willing to give the Saints some sort of hometown discount. Luck’s deal gives Tom Condon, Brees’ agent, more ammunition for a healthy increase over his existing deal. It will probably take making Brees the NFL’s second-highest paid player, pushing him closer to Luck’s $24.594 million average yearly salary than Flacco’s $22,133,333 per year on a front-loaded deal with player friendly guarantees in order for him to sign an extension.

The Saints taking a wait-and-see approach at this late stage of the offseason, where the 37-year-old stays at his $30 million cap number may make more sense. But using a franchise tag on him in 2017 would be cost prohibitive as Brees’ franchise tag number will be $43.09 million, which is based on 144 percent of his 2016 cap number.

Kirk Cousins QB / Washington Redskins

Kirk Cousins is playing the 2016 season on a $19.953 million non-exclusive franchise tag unless a long-term deal is reached prior to the July 15 deadline for franchise players to sign multi-year contracts, which seems unlikely.

The 2012 fourth-round pick has more to gain than lose by playing under the franchise tag. Given there are more NFL teams than competent starting quarterbacks, Cousins could still be line for a contract similar to Sam Bradford’s even with a slight regression or mediocre 2016 season.

Bradford remained with the Philadelphia Eagles on a two-year deal averaging $17.5 million per year, which has $22 million fully guaranteed. The Redskinscould be forced to franchise Cousins again next year for $23,943,600 if he demonstrates he is an ascending player in 2016. This would put Cousins in position to command a long-term deal averaging a minimum of $24 million per year where he’s in the same ballpark as Luck in other key contract metrics.

Matthew Stafford QB / Detroit Lions

As crazy as it may sound, there is a plausible scenario where Stafford, who is under contract through the 2017 season, becomes the NFL’s highest-paid player next offseason. Stafford hasn’t consistently performed at the same level he did during his 2011 breakout season in which he threw for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdown passes.

There were rumblings that Stafford’s days in Detroit could be numbered with the Lions beginning last season 0-5, which put head coach Jim Caldwell’s job in jeopardy. Stafford had the best eight-game stretch of his career over the second half of the season after Jim Bob Cooter was promoted from quarterbacks coach to replace Joe Lombardi as offensive coordinator. The 28-year-old threw for 2,179 yards with 19 touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 70 percent of his passes on a 110.1 passer rating.

Matthew Stafford as the NFL’s highest-paid player? Yeah, it could happen. USATSI
Stafford lost his security blanket, six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Calvin Johnson, to a premature retirement. If Stafford thrives without Johnson, his agent, Condon, will drive an extremely hard bargain in any negotiations for an extension.

Aaron Rodgers QB / Green Bay Packers

The Packers gave Rodgers a five-year, $110 million extension that made him the NFL’s highest-paid player in 2013 when he had two years remaining on his contract. Adhering to this same timetable would put Rodgers in line for a new deal after the 2017 season when he is 34 years old.

The two-time league MVP is still widely regarded as the NFL’s best quarterback despite a subpar 2015 season by his standards. Rodgers had his lowest completion percentage (60.7) and quarterback rating (92.7) since becoming a starter in 2008 while his favorite target, Jordy Nelson, was sidelined for the year with a torn ACL in his right knee. As long as 2015 is an anomaly for Rodgers, the Packers shouldn’t have an issue putting him back at the top of the NFL’s salary hierarchy on his next contract, presumably in 2018.

2014 Quarterback Draft Class

The 2014 draft class becomes eligible to sign extensions at the conclusion of the 2016 regular season on New Year’s Day. Oakland Raiders’ second-round pick Derek Carr could get the first new deal because 2017 is his contract year. First-round picks Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater won’t be in contract years until 2018 since they are subject to fifth year options.

Carr and Bortles showed more improvement from their rookie years than Bridgewater during their sophomore campaigns. Bridgewater is in more of a need of a breakout season than Carr and Bortles because of the Minnesota Vikings’ run-oriented offense despite having more team success.

Carr developed instant rapport with his new wideouts, 2015 fourth overall pick Amari Cooper and free agent pick up Michael Crabtree last season. The connection is only going to get better with another year together. The Raiders getting to playoffs for the first time in 14 years with Carr continuing to progress will allow him to become one of the league’s highest-paid players. It will be interesting to see what type of effect, if any, 2014 fifth overall pick Khalil Mack’s future contract, which should make him the NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback, will have on Carr’s deal.

Derek Carr will likely be the first QB from the 2014 class to cash in. USATSI
Bortles set Jaguars single-season franchise records for touchdown passes (35), passing yards (4,428), pass attempts (606) and completions (355) in 2015. He was tied for second in the NFL in touchdown passes. Cutting down on a league-leading 18 interceptions is a part of the next step in Bortles’ development.

The Jaguars are willing to pay productive players near the top of their respective markets. When Julius Thomas signed as an unrestricted free agent in 2015, he became the NFL’s second highest-paid tight end with a five-year, $46 million contract containing $24 million in guarantees. Allen Hurns’ recent four-year, $40.05 million extension (worth up to $44.05 million through salary escalators) makes him the NFL’s highest-paid No. 2 wide receiver. This bodes well for Bortles potentially setting the market with his next contract.

Russell Wilson vs. Andrew Luck: Breaking down the numbers

http://espn.go.com/blog/seattle-seahawks/post/_/id/20644/russell-wilson-versus-andrew-luck-breaking-down-numbers

After Andrew Luck signed his contract extension with the Indianapolis Colts last week, I took a look at how he and Russell Wilson compare four years into their respective careers.

Statistically, Wilson has the edge in just about every category. The post addressed the fact that Wilson has had a superior run game, a better defense and a more stable organization behind him.

But there are other arguments that readers brought up, so as we wait for training camp, I thought I’d address them in a second post.

1. Wilson has operated in more favorable game situations.

This is true. For example, 52.9 percent of Luck’s career passing attempts have been made when the Colts were trailing. For Wilson, that number is only 38.9 percent. But even in those situations, Wilson’s numbers are superior.

When Trailing
The statistics of Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and Colts quarterback Andrew Luck when trailing in games.
COMP% YPA TD/INT RATIO RATING
Wilson 64.19 7.8 2.1 to 1 96.8
Luck 55.78 7 1.38 to 1 79.2
If you look at when the Colts and Seahawks have been tied or trailing, it’s the same story.

Tied or Trailing
The statistics of Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and Colts quarterback Andrew Luck when tied or trailing in games.
COMP% YPA TD/INT RATIO RATING
Wilson 64.18 7.68 2.46 to 1 96.49
Luck 57.23 6.94 1.41 to 1 80.44
So it’s certainly fair to point out that Luck has had to play from behind more than Wilson, but there’s no evidence that suggests Wilson would struggle in the same situations.

2. Wilson can’t operate from the pocket as well as Luck.

The numbers here favor Wilson, but some have argued that the statistics are misleading because Wilson leaves the pocket too much.

Inside the Pocket
The statistics of Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and Colts quarterback Andrew Luck when passing in the pocket.
COMP% YPA TD/INT RATIO RATING
Wilson 67.8 8.16 3.07 105.9
Luck 59.1 7.18 1.79 86.1
Seahawks coaches have been pretty honest in pointing out when this has been an issue. As recently as the first half of last season, they noted that some of the offensive line problems were on Wilson for not trusting his eyes and holding on to the football.

But it seemed like Wilson turned the corner in the second half of last season. From Weeks 10 to 17, he was sacked on 4.9 percent of his dropbacks. Only seven quarterbacks in the NFL had a lower number during that span. In those eight games, Wilson threw 25 touchdowns against two interceptions and had a passer rating of 124.3. The Seahawks’ offense averaged 31.25 points per game.

Quarterbacks are scrutinized more heavily than any other position, but at some point we’re nitpicking. Every quarterback misses open receivers. But neither the film nor the numbers suggest that Wilson leaving the pocket too often was a serious issue in the second half of last year.

3. Wilson would struggle if asked to do as much as Luck.

I think this is one area where some underestimate Wilson’s ceiling and what makes him effective. He has the third-lowest interception percentage in NFL history, behind only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. He’s never missed a game. And while he has benefited from playing with a great running back, Wilson has been a factor in making the running game effective.

In 2010 and 2011, the Seahawks had Marshawn Lynch. They ranked 28th and 14th in rushing efficiency, according to Football Outsiders. In four years with Wilson, they’ve ranked first twice, third and seventh. Obviously, there are other factors, but Wilson has to be accounted for by opposing defenses in the Seahawks’ run game.

In the last four games of 2015, the Seahawks relied on Christine Michael, DuJuan Harris and Bryce Brown at running back. During that stretch, Wilson threw 13 touchdowns and one interception and had a passer rating of 120.6. The offense averaged 29.5 points per game. And that was without Wilson having a single Pro Bowl teammate on offense.

It’s completely fair to suggest that Wilson has been put in a more favorable situation than Luck with the running game and defense. But there is no evidence to this point that suggests he struggles when asked to carry a bigger load.