getting Gurley going

Todd Gurley’s ineffectiveness not merely a product of stacked boxes

Alden Gonzalez

http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-rams/post/_/id/31128/todd-gurleys-ineffectiveness-not-merely-a-product-of-stacked-boxes

THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — Todd Gurley, the Los Angeles Rams’ star running back, took a macro view when asked about not producing through the season’s first quarter.

“I mean, you know, it’s life,” Gurley said after Friday’s practice. “Sometimes you kind of wonder what’s going on, but you have to look at the bigger picture.”

Todd Gurley’s lack of production is rather startling, particularly with the Rams’ record sitting at 3-1. Richard Mackson/USA TODAY Sports
The bigger picture is that the Rams are 3-1 and in first place in the NFC West despite getting close to nothing from their best offensive player. There are two very distinct ways to look at that …

Positively: They’re 3-1 without much from Gurley, so when he inevitably gets going they’re going to be even better!

Negatively: Their issues in the running game ultimately will catch up to them and send them spiraling.
For now, the Rams can only deal with what is in front of them. And here it is: Only Adrian Peterson, who suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee during Week 2, ranks lower than Gurley in both rushing yards per carry and average yards before first contact. One season removed from finishing third in rushing yards as a rookie, Gurley has carried the ball 82 times for a mere 216 yards.

Nearly 66 percent of Gurley’s rushing yards have come after first contact — but defenses are not stacking the box as outlandishly as you might think.

Gurley has faced between eight and 11 defenders in the box on eight of his rushes. Twenty players have faced that more frequently, especially the New England Patriots’ LeGarrette Blount (25 rushes against eight- to 11-man boxes), the Dallas Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot (23) and the Atlanta Falcons’ Devonta Freeman (19). A bigger issue may be Gurley’s decision-making or, more prominently, the competency of those blocking for him.

None of the Rams’ players have graded out very well in run blocking through the first four games, at least according to the metrics used by Pro Football Focus.

Rob Havenstein ranks 48th and Greg Robinson ranks 69th among the 73 qualified offensive tackles; Cody Wichmann ranks 47th and Rodger Saffold ranks 52nd among 65 guards; Tim Barnes is 29th among 33 centers; and with regards to the 62 qualified tight ends, Tyler Higbee ranks 39th and Lance Kendricks is 59th. Only Corey Harkey — 14th among tight ends — has performed adequately, according to Pro Football Focus.

Saffold said the Rams’ run blocking “looks odd” on film.

“Just finishing blocks is the big thing,” Saffold said. “Finish. We have to pick the right holes to run through and put us in the best position to get to the safety. That’s what we need to do — we need to get Todd to the safety, and he’s going to have those big runs.”

Gurley was tackled by a safety on four of his 19 carries in Sunday’s 17-13 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Seven of the remaining 15 were handled by a defensive lineman. Gurley finished that game with 33 yards on the ground, though he made up for some of that by gaining 49 yards on five receptions.

“We’ve just got to do a better job,” Gurley said. “Everybody from the linemen to me, tight ends — everybody. Overall, just finishing blocks, making the right reads, hitting the hole — everybody in one.”

Saffold agreed with Gurley, calling it “a group effort” and saying that “there hasn’t been any blaming going on, which shows the maturity of this team.”

The Rams have been outgained by an average of 110 yards per game, which is the worst yard differential in the NFL. It is a startling statistic that fuels those worried about the sustainability of the Rams’ early-season success. In his first four career starts, Gurley averaged 6.4 yards per carry and rushed for 100 or more yards four times. Over his next 12 starts, he has averaged 3.4 yards and has broken 100 yards just once.

During those first four starts, which spanned from Oct. 4 to Nov. 1, Gurley compiled an NFL-leading 350 yards before first contact. In the 12 games that have followed, the total is merely 336.

That’s right — 14 fewer yards before first contact in eight more games.

“It’ll come,” Saffold said. “But just with his aggressiveness, and the way that he plays, they’re going to put more people in the box. They’re going to have safeties try to spy him even when he does get through a hole, so it just takes time.

“Eventually it’s going to get to the point where he’s one-on-one with the safety and that’s going to put him in good yardage. And once he breaks free, he’s able to have the ability to get to that top speed and get to the end zone. So I’m not worried about Todd at all. I know he’s going to be fine.