grading free agency

from The best and worst deals so far: NFL free-agency and trade grades

Chad Holmes

link: http://espn1005.com/the-best-and-worst-deals-so-far-nfl-free-agency-and-trade-grades-2/

Eric Weddle, S, Los Angeles Rams

The deal: Two years, $12.5 million with $5.25 million guaranteed
Grade: B

With the Rams unlikely to re-sign free agent Lamarcus Joyner, their list of potential replacements at free safety was vast, especially after Tashaun Gipson hit the market earlier Friday. As a conference champion in a desirable city with cap space, the Rams are going to have the lead on signing just about any ring-chasing veteran who hits the market. It’s no surprise they ended up with Weddle, and he won’t be the last solid over-30 player to join their roster this offseason.

Off the field, Weddle makes plenty of sense for the Rams. General manager Les Snead established a habit of using his own draft picks to trade for talented players while recouping some of the missing selections by letting his own veterans leave in free agency for compensatory picks. The Rams could be in line for as many as four compensatory picks if Joyner, Ndamukong Suh, Rodger Saffold, and Dante Fowler Jr. sign elsewhere.

Since Weddle was released by the Ravens, the 34-year-old won’t count against the compensatory formula, so he can’t cancel out any of the picks the Rams might gain for their four free agents if they move on. As the elder statesman of the safety class, he was the guy most likely to take a short-term deal, and this contact probably represents a one-year pact with an unguaranteed second season. That’s ideal for the Rams, too.

On the field, it’s fair to say the Ravens thought Weddle wasn’t the player he was a couple of years ago, given that they turned down the option to pay him $6.5 million for 2019. It has to be concerning that Weddle failed to stuff the stat sheet the way he had in years past. The six-time Pro Bowler failed to force a takeaway for only the second time in his 11 seasons as a starter and defensed a mere three passes after racking up 21 defenses over the previous two years. The Ravens ranked second in DVOA on short throws but only 16th on deeper attempts, where you would figure Weddle might have had more of an impact.

At the same time, though, Weddle was a starting safety on the league’s third-best defense by DVOA, and it wasn’t as if he was an obvious weakness. Weddle still has excellent instincts, and on a unit with starting cornerbacks renowned for jumping routes or coming off their man to try to force an interception, he is a solid last line of defense. Don Martindale had a superb debut season as Ravens defensive coordinator in 2018, but Rams DC Wade Phillips seems to make just about every player he gets better. The last time Weddle failed to record a takeaway was during his final season with the Chargers, and he promptly picked off 10 passes for the Ravens over the next two years.

The only thing you might say is that the Rams would occasionally slide Joyner down into the slot and play him as a cornerback against wideouts, something they can’t really ask Weddle to do at this point of his career. There’s always a chance that he returns from the offseason and isn’t the same guy — remember that John Lynch made the Pro Bowl for the Broncos at 36 in 2007 and wasn’t able to make the Patriots’ roster or catch on anywhere else the following August — but it’s more likely that the Rams get solid, smart safety play in their backfield next season.

***

Dante Fowler Jr., DE/OLB, Los Angeles Rams

Grade: C-

When the Rams created cap space by moving on from John Sullivan and Mark Barron, it seemed it might be in part to retain one of their defensive linemen. They badly needed edge-rushing help after their offseason spending spree, and after trading for Fowler in midseason, the Rams decided to keep him and not Ndamukong Suh. Fowler’s one-year, $12 million deal will give the former third overall pick a chance to prove himself in advance of free agency.

I’m not sure this contract really does the Rams a ton of favors, though. One-year deals with significant money for younger players who haven’t yet broken out aren’t my favorite. If he fails, you’ve spent money on a player who didn’t live up to your expectations. (Donte Moncrief‘s 2018 deal with the Jags is a good example of this conundrum.) If the player finally has his standout season, though, you’re stuck either using the franchise tag or letting him walk. Given that future seasons of NFL contracts aren’t necessarily guaranteed, it’s always good to try to get at least a second season on a deal for a young player.

In this case, the Rams probably didn’t have that option if they wanted to bring back Fowler, who would have attracted long-term interest on the open market. I’m just not sure he was quite as impactful as it seemed a year ago. Fowler had all of two sacks and five quarterback hits in 220 pass-rushing opportunities with the Rams last season, which isn’t impressive for a player whose team was often ahead and who got to rush alongside Suh and Aaron Donald.

Fowler then added 1.5 sacks and three quarterback hits in Los Angeles’ three-game run to Super Bowl LIII, with the latter figure including his hit on Drew Brees that forced a critical interception in overtime of the NFC Championship Game. That’s an absolutely enormous play, of course, but Fowler had 3.5 sacks and eight hits in 11 games with the Rams. From the moment he joined the team, L.A. produced a 5.4 percent sack rate and a 28.1 percent pressure rate with him on the field and a 5.7 percent sack rate with a 30.2 pressure percentage with him off of it.