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February 5, 2018 at 8:14 pm #80770
znModeratorPredicting 2018 win totals for all 32 NFL teams
Barnwell: Predicting 2018 Vegas win totals for all 32 NFL teams https://t.co/pJCBYRTrhI #Rams pic.twitter.com/wupqRCrRsH
— ESPNLosAngeles (@ESPNLosAngeles) January 19, 2018
With the NFL down to its final four, 28 of the league’s 32 teams are already thinking about next season. That also means 28 of the league’s 32 fan bases are focusing on the offseason to come and what to expect from their team in 2018.
Of course, it’s too early to have a strong sense about what each team’s roster construction will look like. We don’t know who will retire, where players will end up in free agency or who will end up drafting who when. All of that is true, but it doesn’t make guessing or projecting any less fun.
So let’s do that. I’m going to run through each team and project what I think their over/under will be in Las Vegas for the 2018 season. To do this, I’m using their performance from the 2017 season (and years past), applying whatever I learned from living in Las Vegas for a year and talking to bookmakers during my time at Grantland and making various assumptions about what each team will do during the offseason. These aren’t the numbers I would project for each organization in 2018, but instead my guess as to what the actual lines might be come April.
For the uninitiated, an over/under bet on a team’s win total is a bet on whether a team will finish with more wins than the listed total. The Patriots, for example, were posted with a 12.5-win total in 2017. An over bet would have required them to win 13 games, which they successfully accomplished. An under bet would have won if the Patriots had won 12 or fewer games.
Games that end in a tie count as losses.
If a team matches its over/under (as the Titans did by going 9-7 with a nine-win over/under), the bettor is returned whatever he/she bet without any profit or loss.
The typical bet is -110, meaning bettors need to bet $110 on either side of the over/under to win $100. That will be the default line for the bets listed below, but a few bets will have juice weighted toward one side of the line or the other. The 2017 Patriots, for example, were listed as even money over 12.5 wins and -120 on the under. That means a $120 bet on the over would have paid $120, while a $120 bet on the under would only have paid $100 if it won.
Let’s get to the teams, in order from lowest projected over/under to highest. You won’t be surprised with where we start or end.
I’m only going to post the NFC West teams. You can go to the link to read about the other teams or copy and paste the rest of the teams into the thread.
Arizona Cardinals
Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins
It’s almost impossible to project the Cardinals, given that they don’t have a head coach or an obvious choice at quarterback. If general manager Steve Keim opts to go for a veteran and trades for Alex Smith, this number will be higher, even if the Cardinals performed far worse than their 8-8 record this past season. And likewise, if Arizona settles for a stopgap such as Josh McCown and drafts a quarterback 15th overall, this number might fall below six in a division that already has three franchise quarterbacks.
San Francisco Niners
Projected 2018 over/under: 7.5 wins (Over -130, Under +110)
And this was the toughest number to peg, if only because the Niners looked like a totally different animal while going 5-0 under Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan’s team isn’t going to go undefeated in 2018 with its new quarterback, but the 49ers are going to return Jimmy GQ and a defense with as many as six first-round picks. And they should have something in the range of $100 million to work with in free agency. They could get good in a hurry. San Francisco also is in a tough division, and the NFC West has to face off against the NFC North and AFC West next year. The Niners’ road schedule includes six teams that were .500 or better this past season, along with a game at Lambeau Field against the Packers.
Seattle Seahawks
Projected 2018 over/under: 9.5 winsThe Seahawks we saw roll off five consecutive double-digit win seasons from 2012 to 2016 might not resemble the team we see in 2018. Even getting beyond Cliff Avril and Kam Chancellor possibly retiring and Jimmy Graham leaving in free agency, Seattle could choose to cut ties with the likes of Michael Bennett and Richard Sherman as it transitions to a new core of talent. Coach Pete Carroll also has replaced both coordinators, and the hires — Brian Schottenheimer and Ken Norton Jr. — aren’t exactly slam dunks. The floor for a team with Russell Wilson and Earl Thomas is pretty high, but this roster could look very different by the time we get to September.
Los Angeles Rams
Projected 2018 over/under:9.5 wins
If your friend tells you that they knew the Rams were going to breakout in 2017, keep in mind that their Vegas over/under before Week 1 was at six wins with heavy juice (-160) on the under. Very few people saw this year’s 11-5 breakout coming, and while the Rams are returning many of their big names, their secondary will be a question mark if they can’t resign Trumaine Johnson and Lamarcus Joyner. The Rams also have to figure out whether to retain Sammy Watkins, who was their fourth target in the passing game this past season, and they are missing their second-round pick in the draft. Sean McVay’s team improved by seven wins over that of 2016; since 1989, teams that have jumped by seven or more wins in a given year declined by nearly four wins the following season.
February 5, 2018 at 10:19 pm #80777
joemadParticipantLos Angeles Rams
Projected 2018 over/under:9.5 wins
If your friend tells you that they knew the Rams were going to breakout in 2017, keep in mind that their Vegas over/under before Week 1 was at six wins with heavy juice (-160) on the under. Very few people saw this year’s 11-5 breakout coming, and while the Rams are returning many of their big names, their secondary will be a question mark if they can’t resign Trumaine Johnson and Lamarcus Joyner. The Rams also have to figure out whether to retain Sammy Watkins, who was their fourth target in the passing game this past season, and they are missing their second-round pick in the draft. Sean McVay’s team improved by seven wins over that of 2016; since 1989, teams that have jumped by seven or more wins in a given year declined by nearly four wins the following season.Los Angeles Rams
Rams averaged 30+ points per game in 2017
Rams blew out a lot of teams.
Rams are for real
TAKE THE OVERFebruary 6, 2018 at 11:35 pm #80835znModeratorRams Land in Top-10 Among Early 2018 NFL Power Rankings
Kristen Lago
The official offseason may have just begun for the NFL, but it is never too early for sports analysts to begin posting their 2018 Power Rankings. Below is a roundup of the first predictions for how the Rams will stack up this season:
ESPN.com: No. 9
“The Rams will retain most of the NFL’s top-scoring offense but could have some work cut out if they can’t keep their defense together. Connor Barwin, Trumaine Johnson, Lamarcus Joyner and Nickell Robey-Coleman will all be free agents, and all four ranked in the top nine in snaps played among Rams defenders.”
Sporting News: No. 6
“Sean McVay, Aaron Donald, Todd Gurley and Jared Goff is a pretty good core group, and there should be hope in LA this young team is just scratching the surface.”
FanSided: No. 7
Season Review:
“From a 4-12 record and seven straight losses to close the season to 11-5 and the team’s first winning campaign and division title since 2003. In his first year at the helm, Sean McVay won NFL Coach of the Year honors as the team finished first in the league in scoring (478) one year after totaling an NFL-low 224 points in ’16. Second-year quarterback Jared Goff came into his own and the team featured both the offensive and defensive players of the year in running back Todd Gurley and interior force Aaron Donald. While Wade Phillips’ defense had its moments, it didn’t totally adjust to the coach’s 3-4 scheme.”
2017 Turning Point:
“After a surprising 7-2 start, McVay’s club was manhandled by the eventual NFC North champion Vikings at Minnesota. But Goff, Gurley and company returned home and put an end to the New Orleans Saints’ eight-game winning streak courtesy of an impressive 26-20 victory.”
NFL.com’s Elliot Harrison: No. 8
“For all intents and purposes, the Rams are in fantastic shape heading into the NFL Scouting Combine, having just pulled off the NFL Honors triple crown. The front office has plenty of cap space with which to fill voids in what could be a challenging follow-up act for Coach of the Year Sean McVay. Aaron Donald will have a much easier time repeating as Defensive Player of the Year if Los Angeles can retain corners Nickell Robey-Coleman and Trumaine Johnson in the secondary. Also set to hit free agency: receiver Sammy Watkins. Maybe he didn’t enjoy Todd Gurley-like productivity, but that doesn’t mean the former Clemson speedster wasn’t impactful. Defenses have to respect him vertically, and for all the reliability of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, they don’t scare defensive coordinators. Before we go, Gurley winning Offensive Player of the Year was awesome. Mainly because he was awesome. His labors in the passing game, where he averaged more yards per catch and caught more touchdowns than any other running back, deserve more praise than a simple sentence here.”
Athlon Sports: No. 8
“The Rams had the Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and the Coach of the Year in 2017 as the biggest surprise story in the league. While that turnaround was capped off with a division title, it didn’t translate to postseason success. The team is still young and growing and will be an NFC contender once again in 2018 even if the league will figure out the Rams a bit more instead of taking teams by surprise like they did last year.”
February 9, 2018 at 9:55 am #82334znModeratorEagles, Rams among teams with biggest Super Bowl windows
By Gil Brandt
The concept of a Super Bowl “window” is somewhat fluid, given the frequency with which playoff teams — even good ones! — turn over from one year to the next. All it takes to throw a seemingly unstoppable juggernaut into disarray is a catastrophic injury here or a personnel misfire there. That said, I thought I’d try to examine which of the 32 teams in the NFL have the biggest identifiable Super Bowl windows — that is, the longest period of Super Bowl contention — from right now moving forward. Each of the teams below should be squarely in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy for the foreseeable future, meaning at least the next two seasons. Teams are ranked from the biggest windows to the smallest.
1) Philadelphia Eagles
Your Super Bowl LII champions are the most solidly built team in the NFL, both on and off the field. Crucial pieces are locked up for the long term, with Fletcher Cox signed through 2022, Lane Johnson, Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery and Tim Jernigan signed through 2021, and Jason Kelce, Vinny Curry and Malcolm Jenkins signed through 2020. And, of course, the Eagles have not one but two quarterbacks capable of competing for a Super Bowl. Even if Carson Wentz’s recovery from an ACL tear delays his start to the 2018 season, we know Nick Foles will be able to keep the ship afloat.Doug Pederson is one of the most underrated head coaches in the NFL. Before the Eagles’ game in Dallas last season, he had his group really relaxed — it was almost like he was running a scrimmage. His staff, including defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, offensive coordinator Frank Reich and quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo, is a strength. The Eagles’ scouting department is as good as anybody’s. Jeffrey Lurie and Howie Roseman have really put together a winning group that will be a force to be reckoned with for some time to come.
2) Los Angeles Rams
It’s hard to do much better than having the Offensive Player of the Year (Todd Gurley), Defensive Player of the Year (Aaron Donald) and Coach of the Year (Sean McVay). Los Angeles is stacked with young talent and a strong coaching staff that also includes Wade Phillips, who is always going to be put together a good defense. Quarterback Jared Goff, meanwhile, will only improve. The Rams are in a similar place to the Eagles, only Goff isn’t quite at Wentz’s level.
3) San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo will lose as a starter in the NFL eventually — it just hasn’t happened yet. The Niners struck gold in their trade for the former Patriots backup, who led them to a five-game winning streak to close out 2017. (This notion was reinforced by the monster contract San Francisco awarded to Garoppolo on Thursday). I also love some of the players on defense. Imagine what these Niners can accomplish after general manager John Lynch has had a chance to add to the roster in his second offseason on the job, especially given the copious amount of cap space they’re projected to enjoy. Kyle Shanahan is an excellent coach, and I think he’ll have San Francisco competing for the Super Bowl in 2018. The window is just cracking open for the Niners, but soon, it’ll swing wide and stay that way for a long time.4) New Orleans Saints
I had breakfast with Drew Brees recently, and he was very high on this team. While we didn’t talk about his contact status, there’s no reason to think he won’t be back under center for the Saints in 2018. Brees might be 39, but last season, he looked like he was about 25. The Saints had an unbelievable 2017 draft, landing top-notch talent at running back (Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara), defensive back (Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Williams) and offensive tackle (Ryan Ramczyk). Michael Thomas is a scary threat at wide receiver, while the defense should only continue to improve under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and assistant Mike Nolan. New Orleans must pay attention to Atlanta in the NFC South, but ultimately, I think the Saints are better than the Falcons and should be in play to win it all for awhile.5) Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a young team with a very good defense anchored by studs like Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. The offense, meanwhile, can definitely move the ball on the ground behind Leonard Fournette. The Jaguars would rank higher if we knew how well Blake Bortles — whom the team is planning to stick with at quarterback for 2018, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport — was going to play. Bortles was dire at times in 2017, but he got better as the season went along and, I think, is ultimately criticized too much. He’s better than the conventional wisdom would have it, and having a fundamentally sound assistant like offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett in his ear will only help Bortles continue to improve.
6) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ spot here is dependent on them bringing Le’Veon Bell back. But they have a history of keeping their own guys in the fold, and I have a feeling they’ll make it work with Bell. Because when Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger are on the field together, Pittsburgh is a powerhouse. Yes, Roethlisberger (35) is older, but he showed in 2017 he can still perform — and news that the team is talking with him about extending his contract beyond the two years remaining is encouraging. Then you have Brown, who legitimately could have won the MVP award last season, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who will be a star in this league, providing a potent receiving threat. The defense could use a few upgrades, especially after losing linebacker Ryan Shazier, and there is the issue of working in a new offensive coordinator. Plus, Mike Tomlin has to find a way to cut through some of the drama that seems to build up around this group. But Pittsburgh should be in pretty good shape for awhile.7) New England Patriots
As long as Tom Brady is playing, the Patriots have a chance to win it all. I’m not sure I’ve ever been as impressed with anybody as I was by Brady in our extended sit-down last week ahead of Super Bowl LII. Don’t lose sight of the fact that, at 40 years old, Brady threw for over 500 yards and three touchdowns without surrendering a single pick or making his team punt once in the Super Bowl — that’s amazing. One of the biggest questions facing this team in the immediate future — how to replace both the offensive and defensive coordinator as Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia decamped for head-coaching jobs — was significantly mitigated by McDaniels’ late decision to spurn the Colts and stay in command of New England’s offense.
It’s hard to see Brady keeping this up for much longer as he edges deeper into his fifth decade on Earth. Common sense suggests 2018 could be the final season of contention for this dynastic run. But at this point, the folly of trying to predict when Brady will hit the wall should be quite clear.
What about the …
… Packers? True, they have Aaron Rodgers — but they’re also dealing with significant upheaval in the front office and on the coaching staff.… Vikings? The defense is a force, but I’m not confident Minnesota will be the same team on offense next year, especially with the quarterback position in flux.
… Falcons? Matt Ryan is coming off a disappointing year, and as I indicated above, I think Atlanta will have its hands full dealing with the Saints in the NFC South.
… Chiefs? Patrick Mahomes has a chance to be good as he takes the reins from Alex Smith, but the defense has some serious holes, even with Eric Berry on his way back from a ruptured Achilles tendon.
… Seahawks? Russell Wilson is great, but the aging defense is a concern. I think that right now, this is a descending team.
February 10, 2018 at 9:51 am #82696znModeratorNFL pecking order, 1 to 32: How does everyone stack up for 2018?
Elliot Harrison
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16-3 EAGLESThese are your newest Super Bowl champs. Awesome stuff. While many folks on Twitter were keeping tabs on Tom Brady’s passing stats and wondering if he would surpass Norm Van Brocklin’s 66-year-old record for passing yards in a game, a strange thing happened. Namely, Nick Foles, who made damn sure Van Brocklin could no longer be called the last Eagles quarterback to walk off the field a champion. Yep, that was in 1960 — that’s how long it’s been since Philly won an NFL title. With Carson Wentz coming back in 2018 and all of the nucleus under contract, this is an easy No. 1.
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15-4 PATRIOTSLast year’s champs fell in one of the greatest Super Bowls of all time. There’s no shame in that. People can hate on Tom Brady all they want, but at the end of the day — rather, the end of his career — those same folks are gonna miss Tom Brady. Other note: If Rob Gronkowski were to hang up the cleats (and plan enough Gronk cruises to put the “Love Boat” to shame), he’d be a Hall of Famer — right now. I don’t care that he’s only played eight seasons, or that he gets hurt, or that he would have walked away at 28. Whatever. The dude is unstoppable in one-on-one situations. Nick Foles was the Super Bowl MVP. Gronk was right behind him. What an effort on Sunday: nine catches, 116 yards and two touchdowns. That’s the best overall day a TE has ever had in the Super Bowl.
Ian Rapoport: Jaguars planning to keep Blake Bortles at QB in 2018
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12-7 JAGUARSToo high for the Jags? False. They have the draft capital and some cap room to rectify the one spot on the team that you were thinking of eight seconds ago when you read the ranking. Their defense is chock-full o’ talent, from stem to stern. As far as free agency goes, wide receiver is the group that presents the most concern. Both Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee are set to hit the open market. Of course, who’s throwing them the ball, or potentially throwing them the ball? That’s the question everyone is underlining this offseason. NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reports that Jacksonville intends to head into 2018 with Blake Bortles as the starter — and that this was the plan regardless of the wrist surgery that could lock in his 2018 contract (which is guaranteed for injury). Alex Smith would have been a nice fit, as many in the Twitterverse pointed out. Obviously that’s not happening. Soon-to-be former Redskins starter Kirk Cousins would be a huge upgrade. Money would be an issue there. So, Bortles?
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12-6 SAINTSThe Saints aren’t going anywhere. Nor is Drew Brees. Put another way, expect New Orleans to be right back in the mix for the NFC crown in 2018, with their 39-year-old quarterback firing the ball to Michael Thomas and whoever else on third down. Moreover, the Saints became the first team to sweep the Rookie of the Year awards (with Alvin Kamara and Marshon Lattimore) since the 1967 Lions (Mel Farr and Lem Barney). Moreover Part II, the Saints have enough cap space to keep who they need to keep. Brees aside, there are no contract-less stars on this team, and there are enough studs on both sides of the ball to make Sean Payton’s group a threat to be in Super Bowl LIII. That’s why the fleur-de-lis is batting cleanup here.
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11-7 FALCONSFor all the Falcons fans who feel their team has been disrespected in this space, making the top five ain’t too shabby, huh? Here’s the deal: The Steelers have limited capital, several needs and a huge question mark at RB1. As for the Vikings, who’s their quarterback? Atlanta, meanwhile, dusted the Rams — in Los Angeles — in the postseason. This will be Year 2 of Steve Sarkisian’s offense, which should work out a helmetful* of kinks. (Though not the issue of all the free agents on the defensive line.)
*I’m talking about the old red helmets with a black falcon emblazoned on the side. Bring ’em back, please.
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13-4 STEELERSThe greatness of Le’Veon Bell aside, would the Steelers be better off not paying him this offseason? Bell has earned a big-money contract — but you can make the case that the money he will command is not worthwhile, given how difficult Pittsburgh’s cap situation is and how much help is needed on defense. Bell will earn somewhere in the mid-teens per year, a huge sum for a position that has been de-emphasized across the NFL. On the other hand, no one in the league touched the football more than Bell last year: 406 times. Usually, but not always, a running back’s first five years — not his next five — are his best. Bell is entering Year 6. That’s what makes the Steelers’ decision process here so fascinating. How far will they go?
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14-4 VIKINGSLike the Steelers, the Vikings face some fascinating choices of grad-school-level difficulty. Case Keenum played as big a role as any other player lifting the Vikings to their first NFC title game since 2009. How much money does Minnesota offer a career journeyman? And we can’t assume that Keenum will be what he’d been before 2017 — i.e., maybe what we saw this year is a player who has turned the corner. Can the organization bail now? The guess here is that Sam Bradford is gone, which seems unfair, given how that Monday nighter in Chicago played out, with a banged-up Bradford making Joe Namath look like Richard Simmons in comparison. Minnesota might be able to retain Teddy Bridgewater without the former first-rounder hitting free agency, based on time spent on the PUP list and whether the one-time franchise quarterback has accrued enough time to qualify as a free agent. That’s a super complicated CBA question for the NFL and NFL Players Association to jazzercise over. Oh, goodie. Can’t wait for that outcome.
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11-6 RAMSFor all intents and purposes, the Rams are in fantastic shape heading into the NFL Scouting Combine, having just pulled off the NFL Honors triple crown. The front office has plenty of cap space with which to fill voids in what could be a challenging follow-up act for Coach of the Year Sean McVay. Aaron Donald will have a much easier time repeating as Defensive Player of the Year if Los Angeles can retain corners Nickell Robey-Coleman and Trumaine Johnson in the secondary. Also set to hit free agency: receiver Sammy Watkins. Maybe he didn’t enjoy Todd Gurley-like productivity, but that doesn’t mean the former Clemson speedster wasn’t impactful. Defenses have to respect him vertically, and for all the reliability of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, they don’t scare defensive coordinators. Before we go, Gurley winning Offensive Player of the Year was awesome. Mainly because he was awesome. His labors in the passing game, where he averaged more yards per catch and caught more touchdowns than any other running back, deserve more praise than a simple sentence here.
February 10, 2018 at 1:17 pm #82709znModeratorWhich franchise is set up to be the next NFL dynasty? 🤔
“The Rams are so young and so talented.” – @KyleBrandt
📺 @gmfb pic.twitter.com/B1ryVoE9KW
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) February 9, 2018
February 11, 2018 at 7:23 pm #82743znModeratorfrom The 2018 NFL Stability Index
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/2/8/16989146/nfl-stability-index
After a tumultuous season, some of the usual powerhouse franchises have holes to fill and questions to answer … which team is now the most stable in the league?
By Danny KellyChaos is a ladder, or so we’ve been told, and for the NFL’s ambitious, power-hungry non-playoff teams, the 2018 season could provide an extraordinary opportunity to climb up the rungs. It’s not just because of the garden-variety parity drivers we see every year, like the unpredictable draft, the salary cap, or free agency. It’s not just that seven teams are going through head-coaching changes (that’s about average), that another three are under the control of new general managers (that list may grow), or that many more are facing turnover at the coordinator positions.
It’s all those factors combined with the most exciting quarterback carousel in recent memory and the fact a handful of the league’s most stable franchises appear to have developed cracks in their normally rock-solid foundations that creates a formula for uncommon pandemonium in 2018.
This Stability Index is focused primarily on the transition from the 2017 season to 2018 and beyond. This competition does not include the number of division titles, playoff games, or Super Bowls any of these teams have won over the past five or 10 years, it weighs factors that matter most right now: continuity in the front office and the coaching staff, security at the quarterback position, a core nucleus of stars, established schemes, a strong culture, and an identity.
…
7. Los Angeles Rams
L.A. lost offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur to the Titans, but head coach Sean McVay’s still going to be calling plays for an offense that returns quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley, most of the offensive line (center John Sullivan is a free agent), and its top two wideouts, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.
Defensively, L.A. must lock up Aaron Donald for the long term (a no-brainer), and must address the secondary, with cornerbacks Trumaine Johnson and Nickell Robey-Coleman and safety LaMarcus Joyner all set to become free agents. The Rams were the most improved team in 2017—and the foundational pieces are there for their continued ascent into the NFC’s elite.
February 11, 2018 at 7:27 pm #82745znModeratorA look at the #LARams odds for 2018. pic.twitter.com/3ENUXyCQWy
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) February 8, 2018
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