Climate change: Learning to think like a geologist

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  • #58431
    bnw
    Blocked

    It doesn’t matter whether people believe in climate change or not. The planet doesn’t care.

    The problem is that the response will end up being those who bemoan the fact we didn’t do anything about it–or enough about it to make a difference. Or, there will be those who say–there was never anything we could have done about it anyway.

    No matter what happens, no one will be convinced of anything.

    Except the planet’s warming. That will be hard to ignore.

    No. Earth is cooling.

    Uh huh. Well–like I said. Anyway–tell me that you aren’t the sort of climate denying skeptic who believes that some invisible man in the sky will save us anyway? Because–I’ve never been able to wrap my mind around that sort of critical thinking, “skeptic”. See–some climate deniers believe firmly and without doubt in something there is absolutely no physical evidence for–unless you believe in junk science, of course.

    Geology isn’t junk science. Without geology a modern life is impossible. The physical evidence doesn’t exist for man made global warming. Read the article. The invisible man in the sky wants to tax you for something that isn’t a problem.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #58465
    InvaderRam
    Moderator

    i think it’s always better to remain a skeptic rather than just dogmatically cling onto an idea.

    Those are not the only 2 alternatives.

    People who see climate change as man-made see themselves as going with the science, and also lament the damage that the (well-funded) deniers campaign has had in the USA (though nowhere else).

    We don’t see it as being “dogmatic.” I do see things like the reps in Congress putting pressure on both the CIA and the Pentagon to “flip” on this, when in fact both the CIA and Pentagon are well aware of the risks c.change poses to the country and the world.

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-pentagon-climate-change-how-climate-deniers-put-national-security-at-risk-20150212

    I also see, and heavily count, things like this:

    One survey of earth scientists found that while 97 per cent of actively publishing climate scientists agree humans are changing global temperatures, only 47 per cent of economic geologists (those who study geology with a view to its commerical exploitation) concur (pdf). In fact, among all earth scientists, economic geologists are the most sceptical.

    yeah. i apologize if that came off too strong.

    i was really just trying to point out that there are other reasons beyond just climate change to look for alternative energy sources.

    and i also pointed out that man made climate change deniers should also not shut out the possibility that climate change is indeed real.

    #58466
    InvaderRam
    Moderator

    I agree alternative energies can offer great promise but the sad fact is they are not economically feasible for the needs of most people. With new discoveries involving battery technology and materials science perhaps that can change. I would prefer to use hydrocarbons for those things that have the best or sole application such as transportation, pharmaceuticals, materials etc.

    I don’t see fracking as a danger to the local environment but I do see it as a real threat to future potential fresh water resources if not undertaken correctly.

    well that’s what i was getting at by saying the local environment. it’s a real potential threat to fresh water resources. i should have been more specific.

    technology is changing all the time. the solar technology we’re using now will be soon obsolete.

    materials science is always discovering new ummm materials that will advance solar and battery technology. it’s going to happen.

    #58472
    zn
    Moderator

    i was really just trying to point out that there are other reasons beyond just climate change to look for alternative energy sources.

    and i also pointed out that man made climate change deniers should also not shut out the possibility that climate change is indeed real.

    Yeah makes sense.

    #58473
    — X —
    Participant

    Global cooling is the far greater threat to mankind.

    And zombies. Don’t forget the zombie apocalypse.

    You have to be odd, to be number one.
    -- Dr Seuss

    #58477
    bnw
    Blocked

    Global cooling is the far greater threat to mankind.

    And zombies. Don’t forget the zombie apocalypse.

    Yes zombies too.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #58508
    PA Ram
    Participant

    Geology isn’t junk science. Without geology a modern life is impossible. The physical evidence doesn’t exist for man made global warming. Read the article. The invisible man in the sky wants to tax you for something that isn’t a problem.

    The earth is warming.

    I’ll stick with the climate scientists. If I want to know where to drill for oil I’ll ask the geologists.

    Again, the planet doesn’t care. The invisible man stuff went over your head. Not important.

    But I have nothing else to add. I won’t change your mind–and you won’t change mine. We can agree on that.

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 6 months ago by PA Ram.

    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away. " Philip K. Dick

    #58542
    wv
    Participant

    But I have nothing else to add. I won’t change your mind–and you won’t change mine. We can agree on that.

    ———————–

    On that, we can all agree.

    w
    v
    ”Smile, breathe and go slowly.” ~Thich Nhat Hanh

    #58549
    bnw
    Blocked

    Geology isn’t junk science. Without geology a modern life is impossible. The physical evidence doesn’t exist for man made global warming. Read the article. The invisible man in the sky wants to tax you for something that isn’t a problem.

    The earth is warming.

    I’ll stick with the climate scientists. If I want to know where to drill for oil I’ll ask the geologists.

    Again, the planet doesn’t care. The invisible man stuff went over your head. Not important.

    But I have nothing else to add. I won’t change your mind–and you won’t change mine. We can agree on that.

    For the last 18 years the earth has been cooling. That is a fact.

    Please explain “the invisible man stuff” since I deal with facts not faith.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #58552
    Mackeyser
    Moderator

    Um… the last 18 years, the earth has been cooling?

    What? Something like the last 11 years consecutively have been the hottest on record.

    You make no sense.

    Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.

    #58553
    bnw
    Blocked

    Um… the last 18 years, the earth has been cooling?

    What? Something like the last 11 years consecutively have been the hottest on record.

    You make no sense.

    Wrong. Even the IPCC agrees although they won’t admit it. They term it a “pause”. An 18 year “pause” that the IPCC never predicted.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/10294082/Global-warming-No-actually-were-cooling-claim-scientists.htm

    “A leaked report to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seen by the Mail on Sunday, has led some scientists to claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century.

    If correct, it would contradict computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming. The news comes several years after predictions that the arctic would be ice-free by 2013.
    Despite the original forecasts, major climate research centres now accept that there has been a “pause” in global warming since 1997.”

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #58554
    — X —
    Participant

    Please explain “the invisible man stuff” since I deal with facts not faith.

    I’m guessing that’s in reference to climate deniers also being religious fanatics, in that it doesn’t really matter because Jesus will return soon and it will all be moot.

    At least that’s what I’ve heard.

    You have to be odd, to be number one.
    -- Dr Seuss

    #58565
    bnw
    Blocked

    Please explain “the invisible man stuff” since I deal with facts not faith.

    I’m guessing that’s in reference to climate deniers also being religious fanatics, in that it doesn’t really matter because Jesus will return soon and it will all be moot.

    At least that’s what I’ve heard.

    Thanks, though no need for religious fanaticism when the facts are on your side.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #58571
    — X —
    Participant

    Thanks, though no need for religious fanaticism

    Period.

    You have to be odd, to be number one.
    -- Dr Seuss

    #58576
    Mackeyser
    Moderator

    Um… the last 18 years, the earth has been cooling?

    What? Something like the last 11 years consecutively have been the hottest on record.

    You make no sense.

    Wrong. Even the IPCC agrees although they won’t admit it. They term it a “pause”. An 18 year “pause” that the IPCC never predicted.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/10294082/Global-warming-No-actually-were-cooling-claim-scientists.htm

    “A leaked report to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seen by the Mail on Sunday, has led some scientists to claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century.

    If correct, it would contradict computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming. The news comes several years after predictions that the arctic would be ice-free by 2013.
    Despite the original forecasts, major climate research centres now accept that there has been a “pause” in global warming since 1997.”

    Headed for a period of cooling?

    yeah…that’s not cooling. We actually have to BE COOLED to experience cooling.

    What’s actually happened is a number of years of consecutive hottest years on record.

    Perhaps we should stop breaking records before you crow about the IPCC report that we “might” dip.

    Oh, and that’s already been covered. Already been talked about.

    The amount of solar energy is at a 300 year low. We are at a current solar energy nadir. Once that solar energy ramps up with us sitting above 400 ppm Carbon in the atmosphere, the temperature is going to skyrocket.

    Will a down year or two change that? No. Just like opening the oven door and the oven cooling doesn’t change the fact that once you close the door, it’s gonna get real hot, real quick.

    But that’s okay. If facts present themselves and I’m wrong, I’ll say so. You, otoh, will never admit to any facts that prove you wrong because the denial can’t allow it. No amount of evidence will change your mind.

    Which makes this all dogmatic for you… an article of faith. All too easy to cherry pick bits of science acontextually and create a patchwork quilt of data points and then create a narrative after the fact.

    That’s not the scientific method. But hey, William Hayes believes in mermaids.

    See, Climate Catastrophe explains the current mass extinction occurring right now. If the planet is actually cooling (a ridiculous notion) why is the planet experiencing a mass extinction explicitly due to loss of habitat as a result not just of human encroachment?

    Seriously, posting a report that the IPCC says there might be cooling in the future and using that to state that the earth IS cooling and has been for the past 18 years?

    Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.

    #58579
    bnw
    Blocked

    Um… the last 18 years, the earth has been cooling?

    What? Something like the last 11 years consecutively have been the hottest on record.

    You make no sense.

    Wrong. Even the IPCC agrees although they won’t admit it. They term it a “pause”. An 18 year “pause” that the IPCC never predicted.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/10294082/Global-warming-No-actually-were-cooling-claim-scientists.htm

    “A leaked report to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seen by the Mail on Sunday, has led some scientists to claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century.

    If correct, it would contradict computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming. The news comes several years after predictions that the arctic would be ice-free by 2013.
    Despite the original forecasts, major climate research centres now accept that there has been a “pause” in global warming since 1997.”

    Headed for a period of cooling?

    yeah…that’s not cooling. We actually have to BE COOLED to experience cooling.

    What’s actually happened is a number of years of consecutive hottest years on record.

    Perhaps we should stop breaking records before you crow about the IPCC report that we “might” dip.

    Oh, and that’s already been covered. Already been talked about.

    The amount of solar energy is at a 300 year low. We are at a current solar energy nadir. Once that solar energy ramps up with us sitting above 400 ppm Carbon in the atmosphere, the temperature is going to skyrocket.

    Will a down year or two change that? No. Just like opening the oven door and the oven cooling doesn’t change the fact that once you close the door, it’s gonna get real hot, real quick.

    But that’s okay. If facts present themselves and I’m wrong, I’ll say so. You, otoh, will never admit to any facts that prove you wrong because the denial can’t allow it. No amount of evidence will change your mind.

    Which makes this all dogmatic for you… an article of faith. All too easy to cherry pick bits of science acontextually and create a patchwork quilt of data points and then create a narrative after the fact.

    That’s not the scientific method. But hey, William Hayes believes in mermaids.

    See, Climate Catastrophe explains the current mass extinction occurring right now. If the planet is actually cooling (a ridiculous notion) why is the planet experiencing a mass extinction explicitly due to loss of habitat as a result not just of human encroachment?

    Seriously, posting a report that the IPCC says there might be cooling in the future and using that to state that the earth IS cooling and has been for the past 18 years?

    Wrong again. The earth has been cooling the last 18 years. The IPCC can’t admit the cooling since it contradicts all their modeling efforts. That is why I used “pause” as in quotes to point out the obvious. Too bad you missed it. All you had to do was read a little further to see-

    “Despite the original forecasts, major climate research centres now accept that there has been a “pause” in global warming since 1997.

    You’re also wrong about skyrocketing temps when atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceed 400 ppm. History shows that the relationship is not correlative. (See Fig. 6.) No extinction event. But that is what the past has shown repeatedly.

    You also don’t need to preach the scientific method to me since I’m a scientist. And this passage is exactly what we’ve been told not to do, as in getting personal-

    “But that’s okay. If facts present themselves and I’m wrong, I’ll say so. You, otoh, will never admit to any facts that prove you wrong because the denial can’t allow it. No amount of evidence will change your mind.

    Which makes this all dogmatic for you… an article of faith. All too easy to cherry pick bits of science acontextually and create a patchwork quilt of data points and then create a narrative after the fact. ”

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #58769
    Mackeyser
    Moderator

    What you’re saying is patently false.

    There has NOT been a pause. AT ALL.

    And here’s how we know.

    A decade ago, Climate deniers said it was all a hoax, Antarctic ice was actually INCREASING volumetrically and as such, we wouldn’t see any sea level rise.

    Except..we did…beyond the worst case scenarios. We’ve ALREADY seen 9 inches. That’s measured fact.

    So, when the Western sheet of Antarctica calves and sea level rise accelerates dramatically, you can say…what exactly.

    The “pause” foresaw that? The lack of warming is all a part of a massive polar ice disintegration?

    Oh, and I didn’t get personal. Saying Liberalism is a mental disorder…that’s getting personal. I’m not a liberal, but accusing those who have a different outlook of having a mental disorder is beyond the pale.

    I’m aware of the IPCC issue and that NOAA has issued a study disavowing the “pause” to which conservative think tanks which employ climate scientists are all up in arms.

    Bottom line is that the 10 hottest year on record have all happened since 1998.

    Source is NOAA/NCEI

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 6 months ago by Mackeyser.

    Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.

    #58774
    bnw
    Blocked

    What you’re saying is patently false.

    There has NOT been a pause. AT ALL.

    And here’s how we know.

    A decade ago, Climate deniers said it was all a hoax, Antarctic ice was actually INCREASING volumetrically and as such, we wouldn’t see any sea level rise.

    Except..we did…beyond the worst case scenarios. We’ve ALREADY seen 9 inches. That’s measured fact.

    So, when the Western sheet of Antarctica calves and sea level rise accelerates dramatically, you can say…what exactly.

    The “pause” foresaw that? The lack of warming is all a part of a massive polar ice disintegration?

    Oh, and I didn’t get personal. Saying Liberalism is a mental disorder…that’s getting personal. I’m not a liberal, but accusing those who have a different outlook of having a mental disorder is beyond the pale.

    I’m aware of the IPCC issue and that NOAA has issued a study disavowing the “pause” to which conservative think tanks which employ climate scientists are all up in arms.

    Bottom line is that the 10 hottest year on record have all happened since 1998.

    Source is NOAA/NCEI

    Again you’re wrong. 10 hottest years all since 1998? BULLSHIT. And you did get personal as I can show admonishments from zn saying so in the past. But if he chooses to give you a special pass so be it.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #58776
    Mackeyser
    Moderator

    Not admonishments to me. I only just came back like a week ago.

    Way in the past? I dunno. I know Thor and I got personal, but I squashed that and we actually became friends before he passed. All that reconciliation stuff happened offline, tho.

    You want to ignore all the NOAA data. /shrug.

    The point of modeling is to explain natural phenomena and give us guidance as to what will likely happen in the future. NOTHING in the denier’s models explains what has happened beyond “well, that’s anomalous, but we’re going to say systemically, we’re within the norms”…except…we aren’t.

    Again, if the deniers were right, we wouldn’t have 9 inches of sea level rise. That’s HUGE and that amount of polar ice runoff can’t be explained by a “pause”. There are NO models which adequately explain what has already happened.

    So, you can cling to an IPCC report that doesn’t adequately explain anything that’s already happened and says there might be cooling in the future…or you can look at real data.

    What’s funny is that when the Joint Chiefs, CIA AND organizations like the Petrochemical and Insurance industries all look at this SAME data, THEY all come to the conclusion that Climate Change is real and they make recommendations and take actions accordingly.

    But, hey, I’m sure there are 65 million world wide refugees solely as a function of political instability and none of it has to do with resource scarcity, like access to clean water.

    I mean, what to those idiots at the Joint Chiefs and the CIA know? And it’s not like the Oil and Gas industries could possibly know about this. Or the insurance industry.

    Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.

    #58778
    bnw
    Blocked

    Not admonishments to me. I only just came back like a week ago.

    Way in the past? I dunno. I know Thor and I got personal, but I squashed that and we actually became friends before he passed. All that reconciliation stuff happened offline, tho.

    You want to ignore all the NOAA data. /shrug.

    The point of modeling is to explain natural phenomena and give us guidance as to what will likely happen in the future. NOTHING in the denier’s models explains what has happened beyond “well, that’s anomalous, but we’re going to say systemically, we’re within the norms”…except…we aren’t.

    Again, if the deniers were right, we wouldn’t have 9 inches of sea level rise. That’s HUGE and that amount of polar ice runoff can’t be explained by a “pause”. There are NO models which adequately explain what has already happened.

    So, you can cling to an IPCC report that doesn’t adequately explain anything that’s already happened and says there might be cooling in the future…or you can look at real data.

    What’s funny is that when the Joint Chiefs, CIA AND organizations like the Petrochemical and Insurance industries all look at this SAME data, THEY all come to the conclusion that Climate Change is real and they make recommendations and take actions accordingly.

    But, hey, I’m sure there are 65 million world wide refugees solely as a function of political instability and none of it has to do with resource scarcity, like access to clean water.

    I mean, what to those idiots at the Joint Chiefs and the CIA know? And it’s not like the Oil and Gas industries could possibly know about this. Or the insurance industry.

    No the admonishments given to myself and Billy by zn for doing exactly what you did.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #58779
    Zooey
    Participant

    #58782
    bnw
    Blocked

    Not admonishments to me. I only just came back like a week ago.

    Way in the past? I dunno. I know Thor and I got personal, but I squashed that and we actually became friends before he passed. All that reconciliation stuff happened offline, tho.

    You want to ignore all the NOAA data. /shrug.

    The point of modeling is to explain natural phenomena and give us guidance as to what will likely happen in the future. NOTHING in the denier’s models explains what has happened beyond “well, that’s anomalous, but we’re going to say systemically, we’re within the norms”…except…we aren’t.

    Again, if the deniers were right, we wouldn’t have 9 inches of sea level rise. That’s HUGE and that amount of polar ice runoff can’t be explained by a “pause”. There are NO models which adequately explain what has already happened.

    So, you can cling to an IPCC report that doesn’t adequately explain anything that’s already happened and says there might be cooling in the future…or you can look at real data.

    What’s funny is that when the Joint Chiefs, CIA AND organizations like the Petrochemical and Insurance industries all look at this SAME data, THEY all come to the conclusion that Climate Change is real and they make recommendations and take actions accordingly.

    But, hey, I’m sure there are 65 million world wide refugees solely as a function of political instability and none of it has to do with resource scarcity, like access to clean water.

    I mean, what to those idiots at the Joint Chiefs and the CIA know? And it’s not like the Oil and Gas industries could possibly know about this. Or the insurance industry.

    1930s were much hotter than any year since 1998. The 1950s were very hot as well. Anyone who has ever paid any attention to record highs knows that. Most of the sea level rise on the east coast is explained by land subsidence as on the west coast there is virtually no sea level rise.

    Again the executive branch dictates what if any credence is given to man made global warming. The natural climatic variability of the earth has periods of warming and cooling with the trend being undeniable cooling.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #58786
    zn
    Moderator

    And you did get personal as I can show admonishments from zn saying so in the past. But if he chooses to give you a special pass so be it.

    Nobody should be doing this kind of stuff. K?

    I know Mack knows it applies to him too. He’s a mod.

    If climate change is such a hot topic, then everyone should just chill.

    Get it?

    And no responses to this post, please. Just give all guns to the bartender, and play cards.

    #58799
    bnw
    Blocked

    “But that’s okay. If facts present themselves and I’m wrong, I’ll say so. You, otoh, will never admit to any facts that prove you wrong because the denial can’t allow it. No amount of evidence will change your mind.

    Which makes this all dogmatic for you… an article of faith”

    A mod wrote that. What gun? You never allow me to carry a pen knife.

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 6 months ago by bnw.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #58803
    — X —
    Participant

    History Of NASA/NOAA Temperature Corruption

    The animation below shows how NASA has altered their own data to make the post-1930’s cooling disappear.

    The graph below overlays the 1999 and 2016 versions, normalized to the most recent common years in the 1990’s. It shows how the past has been cooled to create a fake warming trend.

    NASA US temperatures are based on NOAA USHCN (United States Historical Climatology Network) data. The graph below shows the average of their measured temperatures in blue, and the average of their “adjusted” temperatures in red. The entire US warming trend over the past century is due to data tampering by NOAA and NASA.

    The graph below shows the hockey stick of adjustments being made to US temperatures since 1980. This is calculated as the red line in the image above minus the blue line above.

    The bulk of the data tampering is being done by simply making temperatures up. If NOAA is missing data for a particular station in a particular month, they use a computer model to calculate what they think the temperature should have been. In 1980 about 10% of the data was fake, but now almost half of it is fake.

    And here is the smoking gun of fraud. The adjustments being made correlate almost perfectly to the rise in atmospheric CO2. The data is being tampered with to match greenhouse gas warming theory.

    Evidence is overwhelming that the US used to be much hotter. Prior to 1960, the frequency of hot days in the US was much larger. The graphs below were generated from the same NOAA data sets used in the graphs above.


    The areal coverage of hot weather in the US was also much larger prior to 1960.

    You have to be odd, to be number one.
    -- Dr Seuss

    #58809
    bnw
    Blocked

    Good find X. Those graphs show what I was trying to tell Mack. That the 1930s and even the 1950s were hotter than the years after 1998. Just look at the record high temp data from practically everywhere on this continent and you will see a preponderance of record highs from the 1930s and 1950s.

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 6 months ago by bnw.

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #58811
    wv
    Participant

    Well what do we know about the “Deplorable climate science blog”?

    I mean who are they? What are their qualifications? Who funds them?

    w
    v

    #58822
    bnw
    Blocked

    Well what do we know about the “Deplorable climate science blog”?

    I mean who are they? What are their qualifications? Who funds them?

    w
    v

    They don’t lie about historic temperature data. Look at the graphs. Note the 1930s and 1950s. What do you see? From 1940? Warming or cooling? Since 1998, warming or cooling?

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #58827
    — X —
    Participant

    Well what do we know about the “Deplorable climate science blog”?

    I mean who are they? What are their qualifications? Who funds them?

    w
    v

    It’s independent. They’re funded by donations.
    The entire article is here: http://realclimatescience.com/history-of-nasanoaa-temperature-corruption/
    And it’s sourced throughout.

    You have to be odd, to be number one.
    -- Dr Seuss

    #58851
    Mackeyser
    Moderator

    /sigh…

    I’ve gone from having nothing to do other than manage my migraines to having too much shit to do all freakin day, so I got nuthin.

    I’ll have to look into the normalization of the data. That’s not uncommon. It happens for real reasons…as you know, bnw (damned auto correct keeps trying to make you btw), so I dunno if there’s been data manipulation of if there were legitimate reasons for normalization… And there are, as you know.

    So, I’ll have to look at it and get back to this… maybe next week.

    There’s this kid…Goff? I think? I hear he’s playing in a football game. I might check him out. I hear he’s pretty good.

    Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.

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