a former agent's take on free agency

Agent’s Take: Vernon’s Giant deal, Osweilier context and other FA notes

By Joel Corry | Former Sports Agent

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25514787/vernons-giant-deal-osweilier-context-and-other-free-agency-observations

The first couple of days of free agency were a buyer’s market as usual, where some players received contracts that seemed unfathomable. The salary cap came in higher than expected at $155.27 million and several teams had in excess of $40 million of cap room, which contributed to the spending spree.

Here are 10 contract-related thoughts and observations since the unofficial opening of free agency on March 7.

1. The Olivier Vernon Effect

Agent David Canter was able to leverage the considerable interest in his client, defensive end Olivier Vernon, into a five-year, $85 million contract containing $52.5 million in guarantees from the Giants. Vernon is the NFL’s second-highest-paid non-QB despite never earning any individual season accolades for his play.

Vernon’s deal should help All-Pro linebacker Von Miller, who was given an exclusive franchise tag by the Denver Broncos, in his quest to become the NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback. The distinction is currently held by defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who received a six-year, $114.375 million contract containing $59.955 million fully guaranteed from the Dolphins last year as an unrestricted free agent. Even if Miller can’t top Suh, the Broncos are going to have to pay the Super Bowl 50 MVP at least several million more than Vernon on a long-term deal.

Vernon’s contract also sets a salary floor for Khalil Mack, who was named first team All-Pro at both defensive end and linebacker in 2015. The Raiders will be allowed under the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement to sign the 2014 fifth-overall pick to a contract extension once the 2016 regular season ends.

2. Context for Brock Osweiler’s contract

On the surface, Brock Osweiler’s four-year, $72 million deal with the Texans containing $37 million fully guaranteed seems excessive for a quarterback with seven career starts. Upon closer examination, that may not be the case. Osweiler’s deal isn’t quite as risky as the six-year, $78 million contract (worth a maximum of $86 million) containing $50 million in guarantees that 2010 first-overall pick Sam Bradford got from the Rams as a completely unproven commodity before the 2011 CBA created a rookie wage scale.

A calculated risk was taken by the Packers with first-year starter Aaron Rodgers in 2008. The Packers surprisingly made him the NFL’s fourth-highest-paid quarterback (by average yearly salary) with essentially one-and-a-half years left on his rookie deal and only seven career starts. Rodgers’ five-year extension averaged $12.704 million per year with $42.77 million in the first three new contract years and $20 million fully guaranteed. Nobody could have predicted that Rodgers would arguably become the game’s best quarterback when he signed the extension.

Osweiler’s deal is also in line with the average contract package for 2015’s veteran starting quarterbacks (excludes rookie contracts). These contracts averaged approximately $17.3 million per year and contained slightly more than $42.175 million in guarantees (where $27 million was fully guaranteed at signing) with four years as the average length.

3. A recommitment to excellence

Armed with almost $60 million in cap room at the start of free agency, the Raiders seemed intent to build upon last season’s 7-9 record and take the step from playoff pretender to playoff contender.

Oakland’s aggressiveness in free agency paid off. Offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele signed a five-year, $58.5 million deal (worth up to $60 million through incentives) with $25.4 million fully guaranteed. Outside linebacker Bruce Irvin was given a four-year, $37 million contract (worth a maximum of $39 million through incentives) containing $19 million in guarantees. The Raiders also weakened the division-rival Chiefs by giving cornerback Sean Smith a four-year, $38 million contract (worth up to $40 million with incentives), which has $20 million in guarantees.

This year’s free agent haul combined with last year’s free agent acquisitions and the foundational pieces found in recent NFL drafts (quarterback Derek Carr, wide receiver Amari Cooper, guard Gabe Jackson and Mack) could make the Raiders the team to beat in the AFC West no later than 2017.

4. Jerry Reese’s hot seat

The Giants went on a spending spree once the free-agent signing period began to overhaul a defense that ranked last in the NFL both in total defense and against the pass during the 2015 season.

The biggest prize was Vernon. Janoris Jenkins was made one of the NFL’s highest-paid cornerbacks with a five-year, $62.5 million contract, which contains $28.8 million fully guaranteed. Damon Harrison became one of the best-paid run-stuffing interior defensive linemen. He signed a five-year, $46.25 million deal with $24 million in guarantees. Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul was also retained for another year at $10 million with an additional $500,000 in incentives.

After committing almost $200 million to the three big ticket defensive items with over $105 million in guarantees, general manager Jerry Reese can’t afford for the Giants to have a fourth straight losing season. He will likely be the former general manager if that happens.

5. Premature franchise tag signing

Osweiler signing with the Texans has left the Broncos scrambling to find a starting quarterback. Things may have been different if Kirk Cousins hadn’t already signed the $19.953 million franchise tender the Redskins gave him. Signing it precludes Cousins from soliciting offer sheets from other teams. If Cousins hadn’t signed his tender so quickly, it’s conceivable the Broncos may have made a run at creating an offer sheet that would have discouraged the Redskins from matching.

Broncos general manager and executive vice-president of football operations John Elway and head coach Gary Kubiak both have deep ties to former Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan, who is the staunchest supporter of Cousins. Elway won his only two Super Bowls playing for Shanahan. Kubiak was on Shanahan’s coaching staff in Denver for 11 years before taking the coaching reigns in Houston.

The Redskins would have gotten Denver’s 2016 and 2017 first-round picks with an unmatched offer sheet. Denver has the last pick in 2016 first round and likely would have been picking in the same vicinity in 2017 with Cousins as quarterback.

6. Time to ask for a trade

Nine-time All-Pro Joe Thomas pledged his allegiance to the Browns after Hue Jackson was named head coach. His best chance for playing in the playoffs before retirement is to ask for a trade, given the mass exodus of talent from Cleveland during free agency. The Browns have a 37-91 record since making Thomas the third-overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft.

Wide receiver Travis Benjamin, free safety Tashaun Gipson, center Alex Mack and tackle Mitchell Schwartz left for greener pastures. Mack, who signed a five-year, $45 million contract, turned down more money from Cleveland to join the Falcons. Thomas should find how Cleveland’s new analytics-driven regime handled Schwartz’s situation distasteful. The Browns pulled their offer to Schwartz, which was reportedly in excess of the $6.6 million per year he got from Kansas City, when he decided to explore free agency.

The trade door was already opened by the Browns flirting with dealing Thomas to the Broncos at last season’s trading deadline. Although Thomas is 31 years old, his contract is extremely reasonable for an elite offensive tackle. He has three years remaining for $29.5 million, which includes a $1 million 2016 roster bonus payable on March 13, the fifth day of the league year.

Thomas would be upgrade at left tackle for the Seahawks, who have the 26th-overall pick in the upcoming draft and haven’t kept their first-round pick since 2012. Seattle could restructure his contract after a trade to make it more cap friendly for this season if necessary. Thomas should consider forcing his way out of Cleveland through a holdout if he asks to be traded and the Browns refuse to move him.

7. J.J. Watt is a bargain

The Texans were smart to extend three-time NFL Defensive Player of Year J.J. Watt’s contract in 2014 when there were two years remaining on his rookie deal, which included a fifth-year option for $6.969 million in 2015. Watt’s six-year, $100 million extension made him the NFL’s highest paid non-quarterback and contained $51,876,385 million in guarantees, which set a record for defensive players at the time. Both benchmarks have since been eclipsed.

Watt is the fourth-highest-paid non-quarterback and ranks fifth in overall contract guarantees among defensive players. He is going to continue dropping down the list in these contract metrics, since his deal expires after the 2021 season. If Watt had played his fourth NFL season in 2014 under his rookie deal, the Texans would have been forced to pay him more than Suh last year or face the prospect of using an exclusive defensive end franchise tag on him this offseason.

8. Fifth-year option windfall

Three 2012 first-round picks should be thankful that their teams didn’t pick up their respective fifth-year options: linebacker/safety Mark Barron (Rams, $8.263 million), linebacker Bruce Irvin (Seahawks, $7.751 million) and running back Doug Martin (Buccaneers, $5.621 million). Each signed lucrative multi-year deals for more than their options.

Barron remained with the Rams on a five-year, $45 million deal that has $20 million in guarantees. Martin also stayed put on a five-year, $35.75 million deal (worth up to $42,937,500 with salary escalators and incentives) with $15 million fully guaranteed. Irvin is making almost $5 million more this year with the Raiders than he would have playing under the option year in Seattle.

9. Depressed right tackle market

Prior to being released by the Colts at the start of training camp last July, Gosder Cherilius was the NFL’s highest-paid pure right tackle at $7 million per year. There was optimism that Lane Johnson’s recent five-year, $56.25 million extension (worth up to $60 million through salary escalators) with the Eagles containing $35.5 million in guarantees would change the salary equation for right tackles, although Johnson is expected to eventually switch to the other side of the offensive line.

It didn’t happen. Schwartz’s five-year, $33 million deal containing $15 million in guarantees with Kansas City is free agency’s best right tackle contract. Former Cleveland teammate Mack raised the bar for centers. Osemele dramatically changed the marketplace for guards, assuming he doesn’t move to left tackle. Mediocre guards, such as J.R. Sweezy, received deals comparable to Schwartz’s, with Sweezy getting a five-year, $32.5 million contract with $14.5 million in guaranteed from Tampa Bay.

10. Self-Representation

Unless Russell Okung can get the rare blockbuster free agent deal that happens after the first 72 hours of the signing period, he’s unlikely to start a trend among other players.

Okung was at a disadvantage by representing himself, because he was unable to participate in the two-day negotiating period that began on March 7, two days before free agency started, when many agreements in principle were made. During this two-day window, NFL teams were allowed to negotiate only with the agents of prospective unrestricted free agents.

Okung’s recent surgery on his left shoulder because of dislocation that occurred in Seattle’s season-ending loss to the Panthers in the playoffs complicates matters. He has described the procedure, which he says has a four-month recovery time, as a precautionary measure. Okung has drawn interest from the Lions, Giants and 49ers.