5 interesting stats from Kyren’s breakout sophomore season

5 interesting stats from RB Kyren Williams’ breakout sophomore season

Wyatt Miller

https://www.therams.com/news/5-interesting-stats-from-rb-kyren-williams-breakout-sophomore-season

Kyren Williams put himself on the map when he rushed for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns in just 12 games last season. The former fifth-round pick out of Notre Dame didn’t start once in 2022, but broke out in a big way last year, ranking third in the league in rushing.

His overall production was impressive, but Williams’ efficiency and tough running are what brought him into elite status. Williams plays much bigger than his 5-foot-9, 202-lb frame would suggest, and his versatility allows him to succeed in both seeking and evading contact. Williams made people miss with the best of them en route to a Pro Bowl selection last year, and he’ll look to continue that success in 2024.

Here are five interesting stats from Williams’ breakout sophomore season:

Williams led all players with 150+ carries in total and per rush expected points added (EPA)

What is EPA? Apart from being the gold standard for sports analytics, it’s a useful tool for calculating the impact a player has on their team’s offensive production.

Data scientists use models to calculate the estimated point value for each team prior to every play with relation to down, distance, field position and time. This expected measure is estimated based on past game results, and EPA is calculated by taking the difference in expected points before and after each play. Last season, the average EPA on a run play was around -0.04, according to NFLverse data.

Williams’ 0.10 EPA per rush was the best of any player – quarterback or running back – with 150+ carries. The only qualified running back who surpassed him in the stat was De’Von Achane, who carried the ball 103 times. Williams tallied 228 rushing attempts. In total, he added around 23 expected points to the Rams offense, solely on rushes.

Williams had the second-highest success rate in the NFL, and he was more successful against a stacked box (8+ players)

Even when teams expected the run, Williams did damage. In fact, his success rate with a stacked box was even higher than his success rate without it.

Success is defined as follows:

*First Down: Gain at least 40% of the required yards
*Second Down: Gain at least 60% of the required yards
*Third or Fourth Down: Convert the first down

Williams was “successful” on 59.6% of his carries in 2023, which was second only to Aaron Jones. With a stacked box, his success rate jumped to 64.9%, third only to Miami’s two backs (Achane and Raheem Mostert). On average, rush attempts were about 0.4% less successful with a stacked box, according to NFLverse data, but Williams’ success rate was around 7% higher in that context.

Why? It’s because of his vision and versatility. Williams is unpredictable. He can go head-to-head with linebackers in the “A” gap or bounce it outside and get the edge.

Williams is the first top-three rusher in NFL history to miss five or more games

According to NFL Research, Williams is the only player in NFL history to rank top three in rushing while missing at least five games, and he did it as a first-year starter. Since the NFL switched to a 17-game schedule in 2020, every other top-three rusher has played at least 14 games.

The only two players who topped Williams in yards last season (Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey) ranked first and second in attempts, respectively. 10 other running backs also received more carries than Williams, and he outrushed them all, accumulating 100+ more yards than eight of those players.

Williams broke as many tackles as Derrick Henry (23) in five less games

Henry is five inches taller and 45 lbs. heavier than Williams, but they had the same number of broken tackles last season. Henry also carried the ball 52 more times, so Williams’ attempts per broken tackle rate (9.9) was better than Henry’s (12.2).

The hulking veteran has led the league in broken tackles three times since Pro Football Reference started tracking that data in 2018. Of the five running backs who broke more tackles than Williams, all of them were heavier than him. Only one other back under 205 lbs. finished in the top 10 for that stat – Jahmyr Gibbs.

Williams’ 95.3 rushing yards per game is the most in a single Rams season since Steven Jackson in 2006

The last time a Rams player averaged more than 95.3 rushing yards per game, the team had a different logo, alternate shades of their iconic colors and called St. Louis, MO home.

Williams led the league in rushing yards per game last season, surpassing some spectacular Rams halfbacks in the process. Even the great Todd Gurley never cracked 95 rush yards per game. Only three qualified Rams running backs have ever beat Williams’ 2023 mark: Jackson (2006), Eric Dickerson (3x) and Marshall Faulk (2x). That’s elite company.