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The Rams’ New Wrinkle, and Why the NFC West Might Already Be Won
The offense has opponents playing on their heels, and the defense is more than holding up its end of the bargain through three season-opening wins. Things will get tougher for the Rams, but with the 49ers losing their quarterback, the Seahawks trying to find their way and the Cardinals flopping, those challenges probably won’t come from within the division
ANDY BENOIT
Right around kickoff in their Battle for Los Angeles against the Chargers, the Rams unofficially clinched the NFC West. It happened the moment when, 1,600 miles east in Kansas City, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo planted his left foot and lowered his shoulder along the sideline at the end of a scramble, his left knee buckling; the fear is a torn ACL. The Niners, regarded as the Rams’ greatest challenger entering this season, had also lost their second most important offensive player, tailback Jerick McKinnon, to a similar injury in a late summer practice. Now they’re a team with few skill position weapons, an improving but work-in-progress defense and no quarterback. See you in 2019.
Don’t say this to Sean McVay, though. Prior to the season, he and I were discussing the NFC West teams. He lauded the Niners and Cardinals, and when I absentmindedly dismissed the Seahawks as a rebuilding team trending in the wrong direction, I got admonished. “Any team that has Russell Wilson you have to consider dangerous,” he said.
O.K., fair enough. But Seattle’s offense has always been a week-to-week proposition and, now, so is the defense. It hammered a downtrodden Cowboys offense on Sunday, but for this season’s long-term, there remain major concerns about the pass rush and secondary. And even greater concerns pock a now 0-3 Cardinals team that is averaging 6.7 points per game and just coughed up a two-touchdown lead to the Bears at home.
During McVay’s first offseason as the Rams head coach, people would ask him how he was liking his new job. His answer was always: “Couldn’t be better—we’re still undefeated.” Then he’d smile. But this past offseason, his stock answer reversed. At any mention of his team—and especially its litany of headline-generating moves—he quickly said, with no smile, “We haven’t won a game.”
With the 35-23 handling of the Chargers on Sunday, they’ve now won their first three. Their offense, which has gained a year of experience in McVay’s scheme plus an elite playmaker in wideout Brandin Cooks, looks even more dangerous than the one that led the league in scoring last year. It’s certainly more innovative. McVay and his staff have discovered the power of jet-action. More than any team now, the Rams put a receiver in fast motion before and/or during the snap. One defensive coach told me this offseason that dealing with jet-action is “an absolute bitch.” At least half a dozen other defensive coaches echoed this. Jet-action messes with a defense’s gap assignments. McVay builds run and pass plays that exploit this. And to ensure the defense keeps reacting with its gap assignments, he regularly hands the ball to the jet motion man. Wideouts Cooks, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods all have multiple carries this year.
Right now, defenses don’t have an answer for it—just like they didn’t have an answer last year for L.A.’s play-action game, which remains strong. Constantly facing defenders who are put in assignment conflicts, Jared Goff, somewhat quietly, is becoming one of the NFL’s most proficient QBs. He’s completing 70.3% of his passes and averaging 9.32 yards per attempt, with a passer rating 111.0. Maybe he is a system QB. But sharply orchestrating the smartest system in football makes you a bona fide star.
On film, Goff appears to be dripping with confidence. He’s become more patient working into his progressions, waiting the extra half-beat to let second-window throws unfold. Against zone coverage, he’s throwing to spots, trusting that a receiver (and, also, not a defender) will be there. Against man, he’s throwing with pinpoint accuracy to defeat even the tightest coverage. (As John Madden used to say in one of his video game’s automated voiceovers, “There’s no defense for a perfect throw.”) Playing with this mix of aggression and patience requires a quarterback to make throws with defenders in his face—something Goff did willingly, but too often ineffectively, his first two seasons. Now, he’s become adroit here, using his 6′ 4″ frame and high release point to make contested throws look easy.
McVay is aware that his young team has not yet faced much adversity. It stayed healthy last year, performed well on the road (even on cross-country and international trips), handily won a bunch of Sunday afternoon games and played in a distracted city that’s still rediscovering its passion for pro football. The Rams shrunk a bit in the bright lights of the playoffs, losing at home to the Falcons, but by then outsiders had already declared their season a roaring success.
Things will get harder. They have to. Maybe even as soon as this week. Star corners Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib left Sunday’s win with injuries. Either or both could be unavailable Thursday night against a Vikings team that boasts two of football’s best wideouts, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Those Vikings, despite their embarrassing no-show against an untalented but impressively tenacious Bills team on Sunday, have the defense best equipped to contest with this high-flying Rams offense. The showdown, being FOX’s first Thursday Night game, will be hyped. The Vikings have played regular season contests on such stages before. The Rams have not.
Adversity could be on the immediate horizon. Still, it’s nothing compared to the type of adversity that comes from having a rebuilding offense, or a retooling defense. Or, certainly, from having an injured quarterback. In 2012, the Broncos won the AFC West by a whopping six games. In 2015, the Panthers won the NFC South by seven games. In 2007, the undefeated Patriots won their division essentially two times over, finishing nine games ahead of the second-place Bills. The Rams, with some help from the NFC West, are positioned to join this group of dominators.
Topic: VB Q & A … 9/18
Rams Q&A recap: Vinny Bonsignore on the biggest NFC West threat, Sunday’s Coliseum crowd, Jared Goff’s critics
Alex S.How do the Rams feel in division after the thumping of AZ?
Vincent Bonsignore @Alex S. Good. But no one is focused on what they’ve done. Sounds like a cliche but it’s about what’s ahead. Two tough games looming
robert S.Are the 49ers the only nfc west team that is even a threat this yr? Az looked bad as did Seattle,last night?
Vincent Bonsignore @robert S. Barring any injuries, yes. And I question just how big a threat they really are, to be honest. The Rams are a very, very good football team. It’s going to take a max effort from the other team and breakdowns on their part to get them this year. That can and probably will happen at some point. But you better be ready to take advantage
Cesar C.Any update on Ogbonnia Okoronkwo ? I’m not sure if anyone asked yet, I’m just excited to see him rush QBs
Cesar C.And yes, i copied and pasted his name
Vincent Bonsignore @Cesar C. working off to the side during practice. We’ll see where he’s at when he’s eligible to come off IR. But could be a redshirt year for him
Vincent Bonsignore @Cesar C. No explanation needed!!! Ha
Andy H.What’s the consensus across the NFL about Goff? The local guys have been killing him with their hot takes. Thanks!
Vincent Bonsignore @Andy H. Mostly good. But there are some people who stupidly and prematurely went out on a limb on him early and haven’t brought themselves to come around yet. But the people who know, know.
robert S.I have seen theories and studies that say it is better to go for 2 after every td. Any way McVay does that since it worked last week?
Vincent Bonsignore @robert S. I’m going to ask this week. Jared told me: “It’s basically just another short yardage play.” He didn’t even know where exactly the ball was lined up – the 2 or the 3. But they certainly showed they can go get those two when needed
Cesar C.I can’t see the games here in Chicago other then the nationally televised games, but is Kelly getting any touches? He ran hard in preseason. I’m curious to see what he could do with the first unit. I thought he would get an extended look when Gurley left against Arizona
Vincent Bonsignore @Cesar C. He hasn’t been on active roster yet for a game. Keep in mind blocking is hugely important at that position – especially on third downs as Todd and Malcolm show – so he could be going through a learning curve on that end. They like him a lot, though. Just need to be patient.
Rick P.Any news on a permanent training facility/home office?
Vincent Bonsignore @Rick P. Nothing new. But I’d imagine by this time next year we’ll have clarity, if not sooner
Jed K.
How is Sam Ficken’s range? I saw him hitting a 65-yarder on his Instagram. That was just during practice though. What would be a realistic range during game time?Vincent Bonsignore @Jed K. I’d say 55
Vincent Bonsignore And that is pushing it
tim S.
Do you think the Rams could/should sign Blythe to a team friendly extension? Also, would Sam Shields be given a big workload if anything happened to Peters or Talib?Vincent Bonsignore
@tim S. He’s under contract through 2019. So no need just yetBenjamin M.Has anything in practice, or in offensive focus changed since LaFleur left?
Vincent Bonsignore @Benjamin M. No, not really. With or without him there were going to be new wrinkles, add ons, this year
robert S.
Charger game is first real test. What is the plan to stop Phillip Rivers? Without Bosa rams can probably score but Rivers is a gunslinger and will take chances. And he has decent receiversVincent Bonsignore
@robert S. I agree. Chargers have a lot of talent and present a host of issues on both sides of the ball. Marcus Peters has Rivers’ #, so we’ll see if that continuesChristopher W.
Obviously this isn’t your call to make, but can you think of any reason the Rams elect to start Brown over Blythe, outside of injury?Vincent Bonsignore
@Christopher W. If they earnestly feel he’s the best option, then he gets the nod. That’s how it always has to work.robert S.
Any chance rams can go 16-0? They would probably be favored against any team nowVincent Bonsignore
@robert S. Always a chance. But man…..that’s hard to doRobert A.
The rams seem a bit then at back up wide receiver with both Cooper and Thomas on IR. Any chance Hodge gets called up?
If not, who replaced Thomas on special teams?Vincent Bonsignore
@Robert A. I expect more moves between now and tomorrow and yes, WR is a position I’m keeping an eye onRobert A.
Any news on Barron, hoping he is ready to go for the vikings game. We could definitely use him in that one.Vincent Bonsignore
@Robert A. Week to week propositionrobert S.
A note of caution. Rams started 1969 season 11-0, then lost the final 3 games to Minnesota, Detroit and Baltimore Colts. Then lost heartbreaker of a playoff game to vikes. We gotta keep it uoVincent Bonsignore @robert S. Yes you have to play through the finish line
Talfourd K.
I saw M. Christian had 30 snaps on D against Cardinals. I have not watched the tape to track him, but does that mean he is essentially playing Mark Barron’s role at ILB? I’d love to hear more about how Wade is working him in . I saw Robey had 29 snaps, so it would seem we played a lot of D with 3 CB’s and either 3 S’s or, again, Christian as an ILB.Vincent Bonsignore
@Talfourd K. Yes they bring him in as a hybrid LB/S who can run support nut also cover.robert S.
Why isn’t Roman Gabriel’s #18 retired? I love Kupp but it bothers me to see him wear it. Roman was mvp in 1969 and was a dominant qb as well as my childhood favorite. My dad took me to Coliseum in 1969 for my first game as an 11 yr old and was in awe of RomamVincent Bonsignore
@robert S. Not sure why. But at this point, it would be hard to justify taking it off Cooper.robert S.Do you ever hear from any st Louis reporters? Most said rams were hopeless. Now what do they say?
Vincent Bonsignore @robert S. I have not heard from any of them. I mean, it was hard to see all this coming after 2016. But the Rams felt very strongly in Goff and McVay. It probably happened quicker than even they expected. But they felt they’d get here with those two as the lynchpins and Los Angeles as the backdrop.
Talfourd K.
Per your point about Kelly and blocking, both Gurley and Malcom had a few dominant blocks against the Cardinals that I saw on Twitter.Vincent Bonsignore
@Talfourd K. I wanna say Todd was darn near perfect on pass blocks last year. He’s really good at it. And Malcolm is solid across the board. Very reliable backup.robert S.
Vinny would you take the rams and give up 6.5 pts? No hemming and hawing!Vincent Bonsignore
@robert S. I do think they win by more than a TDRahim A.How’s Everett coming along. Are their still some health issues going on. Also was there anything linking Rams and Josh Gordon. Did FO put any feelers out?
Vincent Bonsignore @Rahim A. Getting better and working his way back by the day. I expect him to be a bigger part of the game plan moving forward.
robert S.How long will Ficken be with the team?
Vincent Bonsignore @robert S. Until Greg is fully healthy
Kolby M.Might be completely off topic but is there any updates on Okoronkwo? Another weapon coming off the edge would be nice since Ebukam looks like he’s taken a couple steps this year
Vincent Bonsignore @Kolby M. He works to the side every day. We’ll see when he’s eligible to come off the IR. But might be looking at a redshirt year for him
leslie C.Great win by the rams, however it seems injuries to the back up wrs may be a concern. Do the rams activate someone from the practice squad or keep 4? Do they have a wr who could fill in at either slot or on then outside?
Vincent Bonsignore @leslie C. I think they are comfortable with the four they have for now
robert S.Vinny do you think rams r satisfied with backup qb? Heard a lot in preseason. I don’t have confidence in Mannion. Rg3 anyone?
Vincent Bonsignore @robert S. Yes, kind of. But confidence has a lot to do with belief that DSean McVay will coach the back-up up and put him in good position
Tom T.Vinny, are the Rams tight ends out of favor or is this part of Sean McVay’s plan to alter his play calling this season?
Vincent Bonsignore @Tom T. Not at all. Gerald has been working his way back from a shoulder injury, so he fell behind a little bit. He showed what he can do on Sunday. Plus, it’s tough getting them out of 11 personnel. They are so good out of it
V S.The team chemistry seems very strong. A lot of big names putting egos aside. How much of that is coming from respect for coaches? What could cause the chemistry to breakdown? How much do players appreciate things like the day off last week and being treated like adults?
Vincent Bonsignore @V S. It’s partly the coaches but it’s also reflective of how smart this team is. It kind of reminds me of some of the Lakers teams I covered – Fox, Fisher, Kobe, later Pau. Super, super smart.
robert S.Also expected to see Mannion and reserved maybe midway thru 4th qtr Sunday. Why risk injury when game is in hand?
Vincent Bonsignore @robert S. Those are always tough calls when to bring a guy in and what purpose it really serves
Tom T.Is Jim Hill the “Helen Thomas” of the Rams Press Corps? He seems to ask the first question in every press conference.
Vincent Bonsignore @Tom T. Always!!!!!!!
Tom T.Watching the Bears on MNF last night. It was interesting seeing all the jet sweeps and even a touchdown on a shovel pass. It looked very Rams-like. Do Nagy and McVay have any
connection?Vincent Bonsignore @Tom T. Reid, Andy.
Vincent Bonsignore Nagy is a longtime Reid guy.
Mayumi S.What do you think about Goff’s accuracy?
I think he should hit the TD PASS to Woods. His long passes are quite overthrown. Should be adjusted soon?Vincent Bonsignore @Mayumi S. Excellent accuracy. Excellent vision. He just rushed the throw on Woods, I don’t read anything into that. Don’t agree on the overthrows. He puts it there
Ryan M.You do you think the best edge rusher is other than Ebukam? I havent been as impressed by Easley as some writers are. Who do you think takes the majority of snaps at OLB opposite of Ebukam?
Vincent Bonsignore @Ryan M. As a standup rusher, yes, Easley is showing up pretty well. Franklin-Myers is pretty good out of a stance as a rotation guy. He’s got a nice natural rush skill set.
robert S.There are very few charger fans around here yet. I would expect that the crowd this week will be 90% plus ram fans. Thoughts?
Vincent Bonsignore @robert S. I think there will be more Chargers fans then you might think. Keep in mind, the prices to StubHub are very high because of the lack of seats. A Chargers fan who won’t pay that price at StubHub might be ok with paying less to see them at the much bigger coliseum
Matt Y.Hey Vinny, I have a couple questions for you. Is Wade looking to coach for a few more years? Are the Rams grooming someone on staff to learn from him and replace him eventually. Also, any word on the naming rights for the stadium? Farmer’s Field seemed like a thing for a couple years and ground was never even broken. I’m surprised a sponsor hasn’t jumped at the chance to get a couple years of publicity during construction.
Vincent Bonsignore @Matt Y. 1: Wade hasn’t indicated anything about wanting to step down any time soon. But at his age, it won’t be a surprise whenever he does announce he’s stepping down or planning to. Aubrey Pleasant is someone they really like. Joe Barry – their LB coach – is a former defensive coordinator. So there are candidates on staff. 3. They are sorting through various offers. I’m told no shortage of interested companies looking to come on board. I expect it to break reacords
Daniel R.How have ticket sales gone for this sunday? Last weekend was surprisingly very full and mostly rams fans. I’m guessing near capacity for this weekend?
Vincent Bonsignore @Daniel R. I expect mid 60,000’s throughout the season. Packers-Eagles will probably get into the 70,000s. Vikings maybe too, although Thursday night might dissuade some people
Topic: McVay … 9/8 … transcript
Los Angeles Rams HC Sean McVay
(On if he’s getting to the point that it’s time to go play)
“Yeah, you know guys are excited. We’ve got about 48 hours out now, so got to do a good job just kind of resting their minds, resting their bodies, getting ready to go and making sure that we’re ready to go at kick off. It’s going to be a long wait, but we’ve got to be patient and peak at the right time.”
(On how much practicing this weekend and at night will help on Monday)
“I think it wIll based on kind of what I’ve learned, but I think the players are best served to answer that. I know that earlier on you know you feel a little bit kind of sluggish and tired and you feel like you’ve adjusted a little bit. But most importantly, this has been for our players and if they’re feeling good, if their bodies are ready to go in and kind of peaking at that time – just based on when we’ve been practicing and how we’ve adjusted things, then that’s kind of the goal of all of this.”
(On if there’s any update on LB Mark Barron)
“Yeah, he’s the same status. We listed him as doubtful for the game. So, it’s not looking great, but we’ve still got some time being that it’s a night kickoff and different things like that, so we’ll see. But if he’s not able to go, we’ve got a lot of confidence in those guys that’ll be stepping up and looking forward to seeing them compete, if that’s the case.”
(On how WR Pharoh Cooper looks as a punt returner and a wide receiver)
“He’s done a good job. I think one of the things that stood out about (WR) Pharoh (Cooper), really since we got here as a staff and just taking (Special Teams Coordinator John Fassel) Bones’ advice and listening to (General Manager) Les (Snead) and those guys – and I remember even evaluating him coming out of South Carolina – just a good football player. One of those guys that just finds a way to get it done. He’s breaking tackles, working edges on people and he’s gotten better and better as a receiver – he really plays in that slot position for us. But, he can do a lot of different things for you. Then, as a returner, you see the production that he had last year. He’s consistently fielded the ball for us and made good decisions and now really, it’s going to be about translating that into the games where it’s most important. It’s always hard – just based on the way that we’ve practiced teams in some of these settings – practice special teams is what I’m talking about, in these settings. But, he looks like he’s progressing. I think he’s got an ownership of what we’re trying to get done and we expect him to do well again this year.”
(On if the trainers think they can get Barron to 100% or if they think it’s something that will be week to week)
“It’s really a tough thing because it’s kind of an uncharted territory in terms of just the way that achilles responds. Sometimes it feels good, sometimes it doesn’t. Last year, like you mentioned, it kind of flared up based on – I don’t know if it was the weather, there was just the pounding of the games that took a toll on him. But, we all know what a tough competitor Mark is and how much he’s persevered through some of these injuries. But if he’s not able to go, then we’ve got a lot of confidence in (LB) Ramik (Wilson) to be able to step up and do some good things. But, there’s not a tougher person than Mark Barron. So, you know if he’s not able to go, then it’s bothering him.”
(On if there will be a guy that plays a similar role as Former Rams WR Tavon Austin did last year)
“Yeah, you’ll have to see on Monday night. We’ll see. Wish nothing but the best for (Cowboys WR) Tavon (Austin). He did give us a different element – being able to do some different things, specific to his skillset. Pharoh’s a guy that definitely provides a similar skillset, things like that, but we’ll see.”
(On how well DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Aqib Talib and CB Marcus Peters are grasping the new defense)
“I think they’ve done a great job. One of the things that’s consistent about all three of those guys and really (CB) Sam Shields, you can add him into the mix and Ramik Wilson for that for that – these guys play football. They’ve played a lot of football, so they’ve been exposed to some different systems. Aqib has some history playing under (Defensive Coordinator) Wade (Phillips) in Denver. I think they’ve all got a great feel for the game. They’ve got a understanding of where they fit within the framework of the calls specific to different situations and I think that’s why you see those guys have had such great production throughout their careers. We’re looking forward to seeing them all play together. It’s been good to get (DT) Aaron (Donald) back as well. It’s going to be a great challenge. There’s a lot of things that I know (Head) Coach (Jon) Gruden will do an excellent job presenting from an offensive standpoint. They’ve got a great quarterback in Derek Carr and some elite playmakers to be able to get the ball to, tough offensive line. So, it’s going to be a great challenge and hopefully our guys will be ready to go.”
(On how much of a challenge it was to come up with new wrinkles for the offense)
“I think the biggest thing is every year, whether you look at yourself from a self-scout standpoint and you try to make sure that you evolve and you adapt. The league, especially just from a defensive coaching standpoint, they do such a great job of presenting a variety of looks or adjusting based on year-to-year. Some of the trends that inevitably come up within the framework of a season or over the last couple years, so we try to be mindful of that. You know part of that is studying yourself, but then part of that is also not being afraid to study some other people. There’s a lot of really good coaches around this league and in college as well, that we’ve studied some different tape. It’s about if it fits our players. We’re certainly – I’m not afraid to steal a play from somebody if we feel like it fits us. All these plays, I can promise you that not a single play we run we were the first ones to do it. It’s all kind of going back from just adjusting it off of what other people have previously done. That’s why you feel fortunate to have been exposed to a lot of good coaches that teach you and then you try to adjust to your players.”
(On if he’s planning on watching games tomorrow and if so, does he think he’ll see a lot of plays from the Rams offense being stolen around the league)
“Well, I don’t think it’s really our offense. I think maybe it’s a couple plays, like I’ve said, that’ve been run before. It wasn’t like we were the first ones to invent it. A lot of the stuff that we’re doing has been a collaboration of our coaching staff. (Run Game Coordinator) Aaron Kromer has great ideas. (Pass Game Coordinator) Shane Waldron, (Quarterbacks Coach) Zac Taylor, (Wide Receiver Coach Eric) Yarber, (Running Backs Coach) Skip Peete – everybody’s contributing to what we’re really trying to get done offensively. It’s been really a unique situation of work with such a great group and let’s figure out how we can adjust to our players. When you’ve got good players like we do, it makes it fun. Definitely want to watch those games – get some stuff done –because I still am a fan. Can’t wait to see some of these guys compete but it’ll feel like probably an eternity sitting around all day on Monday waiting to play. I’m talking to myself as much as anything saying don’t be too early.”
Adam Schefter@AdamSchefter
Trade official, source tells ESPN:Bears get: Khalil Mack, a 2020 second-round round pick and a conditional 2020 fifth-round pick.
Raiders get: 2019 first-round pick, 2020 first-round pick, 2020 third-round pick, 2019 sixth-round pick.
So Bears get back second-round pick, too
==
Louis Riddick@LRiddickESPN
No logical reason for #raiders to make this “football” move. No salary cap reason either. This has to be a cash issue. You do not let guys like @52Mack_ out the door. Their loss is #bears gain. 🤷🏾♂️—
Vincent Bonsignore@VinnyBonsignore
People are lazily making it seem like #Raiders decided they’re better off w/o Mack. They decided they’re better off w/o Mack at the number his demands rose to & what meeting it would have meant to ability to build a balanced roster.My sense: Mack/camp were always going to wait out Donald’s situation before getting serious. It was the benefit of Mack making $14m to Donald’s $7m this year. Better position to be patient
Aaron Donald deal changed dynamics. Raiders could have met/topped, but ultimately decided adding 2 1sts/spreading Mack money around was wiser approach
#Raiders decided they’re better off moving Mack at that # for draft capital & better financial flexibility to construct that balanced roster. No guarantees picks pan out. But also no guarantee you can build a consistent contender while devoting so much cap space to a LB
they’ve always been willing to make him highest paid defensive player of all time. But that threshold moved to another level with Donald deal. Topping that new number wasn’t prudent in #Raiders eyes compared to the draft capitol and $$ flexibility gained in trade
#Rams are in a different place roster wise. It’s just a better roster across the board with more cost-certainty moving forward.
It helps #Bears had the cap space to meet Mack’s demands and the willingness to give up two first round picks. That situation may never have presented itself to #Raiders again
—
Benjamin Allbright@AllbrightNFL
“Two first rounders is too much to pay for Mack”Ok… would you trade the last two first rounders your team picked for him?
99% of you would say yes
==
Jim Trotter@JimTrotter_NFL
Going forward, each time I hear Gruden say he wants players who have great character and talent, who don’t miss games, who are bad-asses on the field but gentlemen off it, who are great teammates and leaders, I’m going to post a picture of Khalil Mack.=
Dan Wiederer@danwiederer
When Matt Nagy gathered his team Friday for an important announcement, one player shouted from the back: “Have we all just been traded for Khalil Mack?”Prince Amukamara: “It was awesome. I was cracking up.”
==
Rich Hammond@Rich_Hammond
Trying to envision what my life would be like right now if the Rams had traded Aaron Donald for two first-round picks. It’s not a pleasant thought.==
Gary Klein@LATimesklein
Who woke up happier than Sean McVay? Aaron Donald is back for the Rams, and Khalil Mack is gone from Raiders.—
Joel Corry@corryjoel
It’s hard to reach an agreement when refusing to negotiate with Khalil Mack’s agent.Joey Bosa has the same agents as Aaron Donald. He’s eligible for a new contract after the 2018 regular season ends. If the Chargers wait until 2020 when he’s in his option year, more than $25M per year & over $100M in guarantees wouldn’t be a surprise.
—
Lindsey Thiry@LindseyThiry
One observation that stood out to me after Aaron Donald signed yesterday: Sean McVay, a giddy kid earlier in the week after he learned Donald’s deal was close, returned to football-only mode. He was a freight train in motion, geared toward Oakland.Aaron Donald took a brief pause Friday when talking to reporters about what his six-year, $135 million contract extension meant to him and his family. Donald said when he started in the NFL he never imagined he’d one day become the highest-paid defensive player in league history. “My ultimate goal was always to make it to this point and be able to retire my mom and dad,” Donald said. “So, to have an opportunity to call them and tell them that they don’t have to work another day in their life, that was the best feeling ever to me. So, thinking about it I get a little emotional. My mom and dad are just happy. Told them they can just relax, it’s on me now. So, like I said, God is good and I’m just blessed
==
Rams COO Kevin Demoff is just like us, according to GM Les Snead. Last-minute flights to and from Atlanta during Aaron Donald negotiations. Middle seat, Southwest air. pic.twitter.com/Vy4A8i4yit
— Lindsey Thiry (@LindseyThiry) September 1, 2018
—
A doctor’s take on one of the problems with healthcare in the US.
Link: https://opmed.doximity.com/death-by-patient-satisfaction-169e6c21887d
The Many Problems With ‘Moneyball’
ALLEN BARRA
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2011/09/the-many-problems-with-moneyball/245769/
Michael Lewis’s book-turned-movie made a legend out of Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane. But does his record match the hype?
The film Moneyball is—just like the 2003 bestseller by Michael Lewis it’s based on—an idealized version of what happened with Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s in the early part of the last decade. Beane is credited with adapting baseball analyst Bill James’s statistical concepts into practical application. James, a lucid and witty writer with a refreshingly iconoclastic view of baseball history, had argued for years that on-base percentage (OBP, which measure a batter’s ability to reach base by hit or walk) was much more significant than mere batting average (BA, which only measures hits). James also stressed the relative value of slugging average (SLG, which measures a batter’s total bases per at-bat) and dismissed the more traditional baseball stats such as stolen bases and bunts.
James long ago won over the smart guys, in whose ranks this writer regards himself. The cult of professional statisticians that followed in James’s wake came to be known as “sabermatricians” as nearly all of them are members of SABR, the Society for American Baseball research. But a myth has built up around Moneyball the book, a myth largely propagated by the smart guys who want to see their most cherished beliefs about baseball transformed into hard reality. The myth says Beane single-handedly changed the game by recognizing the value of sabermetrics. But the myth doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
So popular has Moneyball proved since its publication that few have bothered to notice some of its very fundamental flaws. Throughout the book, Lewis makes it clear that he doesn’t understand baseball.
His first important error is his misunderstanding of the competitiveness of the sport by the end of the 20th century. In the preface to Moneyball he writes, “For more than a decade, the people who run professional baseball have argued that the game was ceasing to be an athletic competition and becoming a financial one. The gap between rich and poor in baseball was far greater than in any other professional sport and widening rapidly.” Lewis is correct if he’s talking about the salaries paid by the richest and poorest teams, but he’s not correct if he’s talking about the competition in the ballparks.
He writes:
At the opening of the 2002 season [the year Lewis’s focus is on in Moneyball] the richest team, the New York Yankees, had a payroll of $140 million while the two poorest teams, the Oakland A’s and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, had payrolls less than a third of that, about $40 million. A decade before the highest payroll team, the New York Mets, had spent about $44 million on baseball players, and the lowest based payroll team, the Cleveland Indians, a bit more than $8 million. The growing disparity meant that only the rich teams could afford the best players. A poor team could afford only the maimed and the inept, and was almost certain to fail. Or so argued the people who ran baseball.
And I was inclined to concede the point. The people with the most money often win.
From an historical standpoint, Lewis is, well, way off base. By the end of the 20th century baseball had achieved a greater level of competitive balance than at any time in the game’s history. As I noted in my 2002 book, Clearing The Bases, “In the year 2000, for the first time ever, not a single team in baseball history finished above .600 or below .400 … as the twentieth century went on, the difference between the best teams in baseball and the worst teams narrowed, and by the year 2000 it was smaller than at any other time in baseball history.”Simply put, in 2000 the average difference between the worst and best teams was 20 percentage points; ten points plus or minus is all that was needed to close the gap between the team with the best record in baseball, the San Francisco Giants at 97-65 for a won-lost percentage of .599, and the worst, the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs, tied at 65-97 for a .401 mark. In a bit of irony that Lewis did not notice, the team with the best record in 2000 was a small-market team, the Giants, who were right across the Bay from Oakland, and the two teams with the worst record were from huge markets, Philadelphia and Chicago. (By the way, the small-market Giants won the World Series last year.)
Competition looked uneven by the year 2000 because the Yankees, an organization shrewdly built on both developing players and buying free agents, had won four World Series from 1996 through 2000. But the Yankees had pretty much dominated baseball since the 1920s. The point is that by the year 2000 many more teams had a chance to make the playoffs, and, as Billy Beane himself was fond of saying, “The postseason is a crapshoot.”But Moneyball doesn’t just get the state of present-day baseball wrong; it also misrepresents the history of the sport. Baseball didn’t become a game of “moneyball” in 2002—it has always been a game about, for, and dictated by money.
Moneyball doesn’t give you a picture of what baseball in general and the Oakland A’s in particular were like before the game entered the era of free agency and before Billy Beane is said to have changed the game. As I wrote in an article for the Wall Street Journal last week, “In the 26 seasons before Beane became general manager of the A’s in 1998, Oakland was the biggest winner in baseball, with six pennants and four World Series victories. The Yankees, by comparison, won five pennants and three World Series over that span.”
Three of those Oakland pennants—1972, 1973, and 1974—came when the irascible Charles O. Finley was the A’s owner. Finley had few resources but was an amazingly shrewd judge of talent; Marvin Miller, founder of the player’s union, called Finley “absolutely the best judge of baseball talent I’ve ever seen.” Part of Finley’s wisdom was investing whatever money he had in his farm system, particularly the Birmingham A’s of the 1960s, who produced Reggie Jackson, Rollie Fingers, Bert Campaneris, and other mainstays of his later big-league championship teams. Finley whipped the big boys with patience and smarts, beefing up his minor league affiliates at a time when the richer, arrogant Yankees allowed theirs to decay. It can be argued that Finley thrived before the era of free agency, which drove up salaries and made it more difficult for small-market owners to compete. The problem with that is that the A’s had another three-year dynasty after the advent of free agency, from 1988-1990, in which they dominated the American League, going to the World Series for three straight seasons.
The point is that in baseball there have always been factors that mitigate domination by the richest teams. There’s no denying that the Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox, with the highest payrolls in baseball, have definite advantages. But the Phillies, though they are the largest single-market team in baseball and don’t share their territory with another major league team (as do the Yankees with the Mets, the Cubs with the White Sox, and the Dodgers with the Angels) were the worst team in either league until the last few years. (When Philadelphia won the World Series in 1980, they were the last of the original 16 teams to win the championship. When they won in 2008 it was only for the second time in the franchise’s history.)
Injuries, bad luck, front-office stupidity, sentimental weaknesses that result in signing older players to multi-year contracts, and just plain dumb luck have always been among the reasons why just pouring money into a major-league team doesn’t automatically result winning a pennant. And while baseball doesn’t have a salary cap and a fair revenue-sharing program like the National Football League, contrary to Lewis, its free market has produced a fairer system in terms of giving most teams a chance to win than the other major sports.However far back you want to take the comparison, from the first Super Bowl in 1967 to the present, or just from the start of the new millennium, baseball has had more different playoff teams and more different champions than professional football.
The real problem with Moneyball, however, is not Lewis’s failure to understand baseball history. It’s his failure to see what was going on right in front of his and Beane’s eyes in 2002. In their book, The Beauty of Short Hops: How Chance and Circumstance Confound the Moneyball Approach to Baseball, Sheldon Hirsch and Alan Hirsch point out perhaps the biggest hole in Lewis’s analysis. They write that Moneyball
distorts the reason for Oakland’s success. The team thrived primarily because of superb pitching. During its turn of post-season appearances, the A’s were second to third in the league in fewest runs allowed, whereas in some of these seasons, they finished in the bottom half in runs scored. At the heart of the pitching staff were three dominant starters: Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, and Barry Zito. All three wee early-round draft picks, highly scouted, and well regarded—Mulder and Zito were selected in the top ten of their respective drafts. This was hardly a case of Beane’s spotting sleepers … because of nuanced numbers. Indeed, Michael Lewis does not suggest that sabermetrics had anything to do with Beane drafting the three studs who led Oakland to greatness. Indeed, he virtually ignores them. Lewis devoted a few paragraphs to the Big Three (making the strained claim that Beane appreciated them for quirky reasons), quickly dropping them and transitioning to an entire chapter on … Chad Bradford.
Bradford was indeed one of Billy Beane’s quirkiest pitchers and one of his most unusual finds. If you saw him pitch, you’d never forget him—his right-handed delivery was so sidearm that some called it “underarm.” Some swore that his knuckles actually grazed the ground. Few teams took Bradford seriously because of his unorthodox delivery, but he proved to be a pretty good relief pitcher with an ERA of 3.26 for 12 seasons.“One can understand,” the Hirsches write, “why Lewis, ever the gifted storyteller, devotes more than 40 pages to this relatively anonymous relief pitcher. Which is fine, except that Moneyball implies that Bradford played a crucial role in Oakland’s success. In a typical season, Zito, Mulder and Hudson gave the team more than 650 quality innings and roughly 50 wins, whereas Chad Bradford never won more than seven games and topped at 77 innings. What about saves? Bradford recorded hardly any because Oakland never trusted him to be their closer. In a book ostensibly written to explain a team’s success, Michael Lewis treats three dominant pitchers as an afterthought and obsesses about a pretty good middle-reliever.”
Alan and Sheldon Hirsch highlight an unfortunate truth about Moneyball, namely that what does not fit Lewis’s narrative—that Billy Beane’s revolutionary use of baseball statistics changed the game—tends to be left out entirely.At the beginning of the hoopla for Moneyball the movie a week or so ago, a former Phillies relief pitcher, Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams, identified something else Lewis overlooked on MLB.com: “What Oakland won they didn’t win because of sabermetrics. They won because of Mulder, Hudson, Zito and Tejada.”
Shortstop Miguel Tejada more or less slips through the pages of Moneyball with little notice; you’d scarcely know that he batted .308 that season with 34 home runs and 131 RBIs. He simply wasn’t Billy Beane’s kind of player. Though his OBP was a respectable .354, you get the feeling that he just didn’t reach base the right way—the “moneyball” way. In one passage, Beane dismisses him altogether. “Oh, great,” he says with real disgust, “Here comes Mister Swing-At-Everything.” Mister Swing-At-Everything did reach base 204 times with hits, but that’s not the Billy Beane way.
Tejada and third baseman Eric Chavez drove in 240 runs between them, but Moneyball glosses over that fact as if the A’s would have found a way to get those 240 runners home anyway. Runners like catcher-turned-first baseman Scott Hatteberg. No doubt making a strong contribution to the A’s division championship, Hatteberg batted .280 with 15 home runs. His .374 OBP was 20 points higher than Tejada’s and 26 higher than Chavez. But his OBS—on-base percentage plus slugging average, a useful stat which measures not only how often a hitter gets on base but his power as reflected in extra base hits—was 54 points lower than Tejada’s and 53 lower than Chavez’s. But Hatteburg reached base the Beane way by walking 68 times, so he gets the lion’s share of the ink in Moneyball.
As the movie implies, Hatteberg’s story is something of a Cinderella tale, and Beane deserves all the credit for recognizing his usefulness. He had posted on OBP of .367 in 2001 with the Red Sox, but neither the book or the movie tells the whole story. As Sheldon and Alan Hirsch put it,
A large part of Beane’s genius, and Lewis’s telling, concerned knowing when to obtain and release players; he buys low and sells high. But the opposite was the case with Hatteberg. Beane signed him for $900,000, but after three seasons had to pay him $2,450,000. Beane lost interest in him, and Cincinnati signed him to a one-year contract for the bargain basement price of $750,000. Moneyball claims Beane succeeded on a low budget because of mega-efficiency, but Hatteberg reflects Beane at his least efficient; at Cincinnati, Hatteberg’s productivity per-dollar was astronomically higher than at Oakland.
By the way, The Beauty of Short Hops, though it punctures gaping holes in Moneyball, has all but been ignored by the baseball sports establishment, just as the truth of the numerous Bill James-derived statistics that Beane used were previously ignored by the old baseball establishment.
Moneyball ends with the story of Jeremy Brown, one of eight players who Beane was obsessed with at the time Lewis was writing the book. Brown, an overweight catcher for the University of Alabama, couldn’t run or field his position very well but had a remarkable talent, at least at the college level, of getting on base, often by drawing walks. Beane chose Brown with the 35th pick in the amateur draft. In 2008, after accumulating just 10 at-bats in the major leagues, Brown gave it up and retired.“It turned out the scouts were right,” write the Hirsches, “to compare Jeremy Brown to Babe Ruth because both were fat and walked a lot was like comparing Manute Bol to Wilt Chamberlain because both were tall and blocked shots .. Michael Lewis, caught up in a theory and a story, found their merger in this improbable spectacle. If Jeremy Brown didn’t exist, Beane and Lewis would have invented him. In fact, that’s exactly what they did.”
None of Beane’s other 2008 draft picks panned out, either.
Perhaps the bitterest irony, one that still hasn’t gotten across with most of the sports media, is who sabermetrics actually did end up helping. The subtitle of Moneyball is “The Art of Winning an Unfair Game.” As a long, feel-good story in the September 26 Sports Illustrated details, the team that seems to have benefited most from the study of sabermetrics is the Boston Red Sox, who hired Bill James as an advisor in 2004. It was, of course, long overdue that major league front offices should recognize James’s genius, but surely Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, a James aficionado, would have made use of his talents with or without Billy Beane’s relative success in Oakland. And it certainly must be acknowledged that the Red Sox, with enormous resources at their disposal, had the money to pursue and sign high-pried free agents who the A’s and other low budgets teams could not.
With James on board, the Red Sox finally broke the so-called “Curse of the Bambino” and won two World Series in 2004 and 2007—though they won in 2004 in the most improbable of ways, coming back from a 0-3 deficit to the Yankees in the ALCS, just as they had lost the ALCS to the Yankees in the most improbable fashion the previous season when their ace, Pedro Martinez, melted down and lost a sizeable lead in the deciding game.
So while baseball is left to sort out for itself exactly what the true impact of sabermetrics is, it’s always good to remember that no set of statistics has ever been invented that predicts the future so well as it predicts the past. As I write this, the Red Sox—2011 payroll estimated at $161.7 million—are a horrendous 6-18 in September and are in a fight for their lives for the wild card spot in the AL playoffs with the same Tampa Bay Rays—payroll approximately $41.1 million—that Michael Lewis thought back in 2002 could no longer afford to be contenders.
Lewis’s misunderstanding of baseball has led a legion of sportswriters and fans to revere Billy Beane. But does the record support the hype? To answer that question, we have to confront the A’s dismal post-season performance—a factor Beane (and Lewis) prefer we dismiss.“Anyone,” Beane told an ESPN reporter years ago after an A’s loss in the 2003 postseason, “who wants to diminish our accomplishments by focusing on the playoffs is foolish and ignorant. That’s not respectful to the players on this team.” Well, yes and yes. Most veteran baseball observers would agree that it’s the regular season that shows a team’s true strengths (and weaknesses) and that postseason success in baseball is not so certain as in football or basketball, where, generally, the team that’s supposed to win does win. But even in a crapshoot—and Lewis, as well as Beane, uses the term to define the postseason—the dice should eventually roll your way. Is there anything to be said about the repeated postseason flubs of Billy Beane’s best Oakland teams?
Let’s review. From 2000-2003, the A’s lost in the first round of the playoffs, the American League Division Series, each year. Their collective record for those four series was 8-12. Even more stunning, given their success during the regular season, the A’s were an eye-popping 0-9 in potential clinchers—games that would have won the series and sent them on to the next round of playoffs.
Some of their errors and miscues are among the most famous in 21st century major league baseball. In 2000, the A’s won 91 games over the season to the Yankees’ 87 but lost in the final game of the ALDS when Terrence Long, not known for his defensive skills, misplayed a long fly ball in the first inning, allowing the Yankees to clear the bases and blow the game open. The next season, the A’s once again outplayed the far richer eastern devils, winning 102 games to the Yanks’ 95. One of the key plays in the series came in game three when Derek Jeter streaked all the way across the field to snag a weak throw down the first base line and flip it to Jorge Posada, who tagged an unbelievably lazy Jeremy Giambi, who had forgotten to slide. In game five, the A’s led 2-0 in the bottom of the second when three Oakland errors led to two unearned runs that were the difference in the 5-3 win; one of the errors was by Jason Giambi at first base. Giambi was probably one of the worst fielding first basemen in baseball; the only reason he was playing the position that day was because he couldn’t play DH because his brother, the even worse fielding Jeremy, was in that slot.
In 2002, the A’s faced the equally small market Minnesota Twins in the ALDS. Oakland was easily the better team, winning 103 games to the Twins’ 94. But in game four, the A’s fielding unraveled with two errors leading to five unearned runs in an ugly defeat. One error was committed by the normally sure-handed Miguel Tejada, but the other was by the usually unsurehanded Scott Hattesberg who was in the lineup because Beane loved his ability to get on base, not for his fielding skills. (As Lewis puts it, infield coach Ron Washington “was the one coach in baseball who could be certain that his general manager wouldn’t be wasting any money on fielding ability.”)
The next season the A’s won three more games (96-93) than the big market Boston Red Sox. But in game three, perhaps the worst in Beane’s career, they committed four errors, capped off by Tejada and Eric Byrnes taking the team out of scoring opportunities with bone-headed base running. (Base running is low on Beane’s list of priorities.)What’s interesting about these four series is that three of them were against much larger-market teams. Each year Oakland demonstrated that they had the talent to win more games than the big guys, but each time they couldn’t play the “small ball” required to clench the key games that would have given them the series. You can call it a crapshoot, but all this is reflective of talents that Beane was largely indifferent to, namely fielding and base running, the kind of small things that get overlooked when a general manager is obsessed with large concepts like on-base percentage. And yet they are skills that don’t require a great deal of money to work on.
Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci wrote in 2003 that “There are real reasons why the Athletics don’t get it down in October, and they have nothing to do with shooting craps. Beane’s teams don’t catch the ball well enough … and, as one Oakland source put it, ‘We’re the worst base running team in the league.'”
Crap shoot? Perhaps, but the first front office official in baseball to studybaseball statistics had, perhaps, a better explanation: “Luck,” said the legendary Branch Rickey, a full half-century before Beane, “is the residue of design.”
Curiously, Beane has been given a free pass by baseball writers for his team’s wretched postseason performance. Even more curious is another problem with Beane’s Oakland A’s that has gone almost complete unnoted. Front offices all over the major leagues have been sharply criticized for wearing blinders on the subject of performance enhancing drugs, yet drug use by the A’s in the Moneyball era has drawn practically no attention from anyone, especially Michael Lewis.
We now know now that their best player and the 2002 American League MVP, Miguel Tejada, was on steroids from 2001-2003—he’s admitted it. We don’t know if Jeremy Giambi was doing anything more potent than marijuana at this time, though he later said he used anabolic steroids similar to those his brother Jason admitted to using in both Oakland and New York. We know that reserve outfielder/third baseman Adam Piatt dealt drugs when he was with Oakland from 2000-2003 (there even copies of two checks Tejada wrote him for the PEDs).
It certainly isn’t as if there no red flags for Beane to notice. The leaders of the A’s 1988-1990 AL pennant winning teams, Jose Canseco, the self-proclaimed godfather of steroids, and Mark McGwire were rumored to taking some kind of steroids for years. Canseco was back on the A’s in 1997 while Beane was an assistant GM. Perhaps in 2002, when Lewis was writing Moneyball, too little was known about PEDs, but why is there nothing concerning the revelations of drug abuse on the team in subsequent editions?
In The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance, James Stewart patiently tells a reporter the real story about his legend: he didn’t really do what he was famous for doing. The reporter says with a shrug, “This is the West. When the fact becomes legend, print the legend.” Michael Lewis took fact and molded it into a legend. And now, lucky Billy Beane, with Brad Pitt playing him in the highly regarded film version of Moneyball, looks even better on the big screen than he did on the printed page.But while Hollywood can create legend, it can’t change the facts. And the fact is that first baseball analysts, then sportswriters, and now Hollywood have bought into the legend.
“…right-to-try is nothing more than another weapon in the arsenal of right wing groups opposed on principle to government regulation…”
On Wednesday afternoon, I happened to stop at the doctors’ lounge at my hospital to have lunch. There are lots of snacks there to supplement a sandwich, as well as coffee, soda, water, to go along with it. Unfortunately, there is also a TV there as well, and even more unfortunately, it was tuned to something I didn’t want to have to watch, namely the signing ceremony for the Trickett Wendler, Frank Mongiello, Jordan McLinn, and Matthew Bellina Right to Try Act of 2017. It was quite nauseating to watch. President Donald Trump preened and made ridiculous claims for this right-to-try law like this:
Each year, thousands of terminally ill patients suffer while waiting for new and experimental drugs to receive final FDA approval. It takes a long time, and the time is coming down. While we were streamlining and doing a lot of streamlining, the current FDA approval process can take, as Scott just said, many years — many, many years. And for countless patients, time, it’s not what they have. They don’t have an abundance of time.
With the Right to Try law I’m signing today, patients with life-threatening illnesses will finally have access to experimental treatments that could improve or even cure their conditions. These are experimental treatments and products that have shown great promise, and we weren’t able to use them before. Now we can use them. And oftentimes they’re going to be very successful. It’s an incredible thing.
The Right to Try also offers new hope for those who either don’t qualify for clinical trials or who have exhausted all available treatment options. There were no options, but now you have hope. You really have hope.
As I’ve discussed many times before, the basic idea behind “right-to-try” is that the FDA is killing people (or letting people die) through its bureaucratic delays in approving drugs, lives that, if you believe right-to-try advocates, could be saved by cutting the FDA out of the decision between drug companies with experimental therapeutics and terminally ill patients who want to try them. It’s nonsense, of course. In actuality, the FDA is not unduly slow approving new drugs, in particular as compared to Europe, and, more importantly, there is an expanded access program that approves >99% of requests. True, the paperwork to access drugs through expanded access programs was once onerous, but the FDA has made great strides towards reducing that burden. Oddly enough, right-to-try advocates often mischaracterize an expanded access program in France as being a success story of right-to-try when it is not. (They also like to conflate cases of compassionate use or fast-track approval with right-to-try.) In other words, Trump’s speech is a total distortion of the true situation, as has been the case with so much that “right-to-try” proponents have said over the years that they have been promoting this law and the 40 or so state-level laws before it. As I have also discussed so many times before in the context of right-to-try going back to 2014, right-to-try provides no new right and no new access to experimental therapeutics that weren’t available before through FDA expanded/compassionate use programs. What it does do is to strip away important patient protections, leaving the most vulnerable, terminally ill patients, in essence on their own. It’s a bait and switch, the bait being the promise to help terminally ill patients, the switch being a major step in the process of dismantling the FDA.
Right-to-try: Never meant to help patients
I’ve been saying all along since 2014 that the goal of right-to-try laws was never to help terminally ill patients, but rather to weaken the FDA. Examined from a broader standpoint, right-to-try is nothing more than another weapon in the arsenal of right wing groups opposed on principle to government regulation, the target in this case being the FDA. Indeed, ditching the FDA has long been a fever dream goal in more ardent libertarian circles. Don’t believe me? Here’s one summary of libertarian arguments for dismantling the FDA. Basically, the arguments run the gamut from “opening the FDA up to competition” by “private inspection agencies.” Let’s just say I find this argument…unpersuasive. Libertarians will fall all over themselves to deny that such companies would have an inherent incentive to make getting their stamp of approval easy and more inexpensive (free market!), but their counterarguments tend to come down to strong laws against this (yeah, right) and “trust the free market.” As Aaron Brown put it:You seem to think that eliminating the Food and Drug Administration is among the more radical libertarian positions. In fact, it’s one of the easiest. It’s very hard to imagine any libertarian supporting the FDA.
And:
Thus was born a hugely profitable and powerful combination of doctors, drug and medical device makers and regulators, which over the years has been a constant source of scandals. It delays innovation, drives up costs and—make no mistake—kills more people every year than mass shooters.
Although libertarians are a diverse group and value independent thinking, nearly all libertarians have to hate the theory of the FDA. A few of them might dispute the empirical evidence. I think fewer of them would dispute the historical record, because this kind of regulatory empire building and capture is very common and a major complaint of most libertarians.
Again, this libertarian trope about the FDA killing more people than it saves is utter bullshit, but it’s an article of faith among anti-regulation conservatives and libertarians.
Right-to-try strikes back against Scott Gottleib
Whenever I point out that right-to-try is a tool, a step if you will, towards the ultimate dismantling of the FDA, inevitably someone will take umbrage and insist that, no, that’s not the purpose of right-to-try at all. They also accuse me of a lack of compassion, as though compassion for the terminally ill requires that I buy their arguments. Now that right-to-try is law, however, the mask is coming off. One of the architects of the federal right-to-try law that President Trump signed on Wednesday, Sen. Ron Johnson, rebuked FDA Commissioner Scott Gottleib yesterday, setting him straight on the true purpose of right-to-try. I found this out in a STAT News article, ‘Right-to-try’ law intended to weaken the FDA, measure’s sponsor says in blunt remarks, which reported on a letter written by Sen. Johnson to Dr. Gottleib in response to remarks that Gottleib had made about right-to-try two weeks ago entitled Johnson to FDA: Agency Should Comply with Right to Try Law. First, he lays out the “offense” by Gottleib that riled him up:In a recent article about right to try, you appeared to suggest that the FDA would need to issue regulations to balance the law’s requirement against “patient protections.” The article quoted you as saying:
“In terms of making sure that it balances [access to experimental drugs] against appropriate patient protections . . . with [S. 204], we’d have to do a little bit more . . . in guidance and perhaps in regulation to achieve some of those goals.”
“We felt that there were certain aspects of [S. 204] that could be modified to build in additional patient protections, but if you weren’t able to do that legislatively, that there [was] a pathway by which you do that administratively and still remain consistent with the letter and the spirit of this law.”
You later tweeted: “I stand ready to implementin a way that achieves Congress’ intent to promote access and protect patients; and build on #FDA’s longstanding commitment to these important goals.”
Silly Dr. Gottleib. He actually thought that right-to-try was about expanding access to experimental therapies to terminally ill patients. Gottleib, as I’ve discussed, was the “least bad” choice Trump could have made for FDA Commissioner. Sure, he’s all for “streamlining” drug approval processes (translation: making them easier and less rigorous), but he still exists within a continuum of “normal” among FDA Commissioners, albeit on the conservative end. He’s not a hyper-libertarian Peter Theil crony who thinks the free market will take care of drug safety, nor does he think that online rating systems, a “Yelp for drugs” if you will, would be effective at assuring drug safety. Gottleib is, in contrast, the sort of FDA Commissioner that any Republican administration might have appointed. He actually believes in the mission of the FDA, as he showed when under his leadership the FDA started cracking down on quack stem cell clinics.
Because Gottleib believes in the mission of the FDA, he understands how bad this new law is, how it will cut the FDA out of the process, leaving terminally ill patients unprotected by institutional review boards (IRBs)—or much of anything else, for that matter. So he tried to say how FDA would work to implement the law, including trying to do what the FDA is supposed to do and protect patients accessing right-to-try medications. It’s what any responsible FDA Commissioner would do.
Sen. Johnson wasted no time in setting Dr. Gottleib straight on that score:
As I made clear to my colleagues in the Senate and the House before each body voted on S. 204, this legislation is fundamentally about empowering patients to make decisions in cooperation with their doctors and the developers of potentially life-saving therapies. This law intends to diminish the FDA’s power over people’s lives, not increase it.
I told you so. In the name of patient “empowerment” right-to-try is really about cutting the FDA out of the process of drug companies marketing their wares to desperate patients. Johnson makes that very explicitly clear in no uncertain terms:
It is designed to work within existing FDA regulations, definitions, and approval processes. It is not meant to grant FDA more power or enable the FDA to write new guidance, rules, or regulations that would limit the ability of an individual facing a life-threatening disease from accessing treatments. Under this law, the FDA’s oversight with respect to patient safety within a Phase I trial remains unchanged; the current thresholds for successful completion of such a trial phase remains unchanged.
That last bit about phase I trial requirements is a red herring. No one is claiming that right-to-try changes phase I clinical trial requirements. What right-to-try does do is something incredibly dangerous. It makes any drug that has passed phase I trials and has an active investigational new drug (IND) application and is in ongoing clinical trials eligible for right-to-try. As I’ve repeated more times than I can remember but still feel obligated to repeat any time I discuss right-to-try, it is deceptive as hell to call drugs that have passed phase I “safe,” as I’ve seen right-to-try advocates do more times than I can remember. Phase I trials generally only involve less than 30 patients and are not designed to verify drug safety. Rather, they are designed to detect the worst toxicities and make sure that the drug isn’t too toxic or hazardous to continue to test in phase II and III clinical trials. (There’s a big difference.) Phase I trials also do not demonstrate efficacy. They are not designed to do that, either. Basically, think of phase I trials as a screening test to make sure an experimental drug isn’t too dangerous and might have activity, enough to justify further clinical trials. Only around 10-15% of drugs that pass phase I go on to be approved by the FDA.
Ironically, Sen. Johnson is not entirely wrong in one thing that he asserts. It is true that right-to-try does not provide any new rights that patients didn’t already have before under expanded use programs. It also certainly doesn’t do anything to increase FDA power. After all, the bill’s primary sponsor just told Scott Gottleib that that the very purpose of the bill was to weaken his agency and that he should, basically, stay out of right-to-try cases.
If that’s not clear enough, Johnson drives home the point. First, he wants as many patients as possible to be eligible for right-to-try:
S. 204, as originally introduced, applied to patients “with a terminal illness,” as defined by state law. I rejected the FDA’s proposed definition—“immediately life-threatening disease or condition”— because it would exclude patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy, an illness that I explicitly intended to be covered by the legislation. As enacted, S. 204 defines terminal illness as “life-threatening disease or condition,” a definition that exists in current federal regulation. The FDA confirmed that this definition would include patients diagnosed with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
Of course, state right-to-try laws generally define a “terminal illness” as one that is likely to cause death within six months, although the definition varies somewhat and some states don’t even necessarily require a “terminal” illness. Be that as it may, Sen. Johnson makes it very clear: Right-to-try should victimize apply to as many patients as possible.
Next up, don’t harsh me, bro, with any outcomes that might reflect badly on the experimental drug:
S. 204 requires that the Secretary of Health and Human Services may not use a clinical outcome associated with the use of an eligible investigational drug to delay or adversely affect the drug’s review or approval, unless use of that clinical outcome is critical to determining safety. This language is not intended to enable the FDA to expand the scope of existing safety determinations about investigational drugs.
No one ever said that it did, least of all Scott Gottleib, at least as far as I can tell. As I’ve discussed multiple times, the language in the federal right-to-try law bends over backwards to make sure there are no consequences for companies agreeing to provide experimental medications to patients under the law. Indeed, the first version of Sen. Johnson’s right-to-try bill explicitly banned the FDA from using outcomes from patients using an experimental drug under right-to-try in its consideration. Seriously, I mean this. The original version of Sen. Johnson’s bill would have banned the FDA from even considering outcomes of patients who access right-to-try in its considerations over whether to approve a drug. At least the version that passed allows such consideration, although it requires jumping through some hoops. For example, the Secretary of Health and Human Services (or his designee, which can be the FDA Commissioner) must publicly justify using outcomes in this way. Basically, S. 204 as passed states that the FDA can’t use a clinical outcome or adverse event associated with the use of a right-to-try drug in its determination of licensure for sale unless the Secretary of Health and Human Services (or his designee) decides that the use of these outcomes is critical to determining the safety of the drug or the applicant wants them used. Rather than what the default should be (that all outcome data should be considered when examining a drug for FDA approval), this forces the HHS Secretary or a high level delegate to justify including right-to-try outcomes in the deliberations over whether the drug under consideration should receive FDA approval for marketing. In other words, the burden of proof is on the FDA, not the company seeking approval for its drug, as to why right-to-try outcomes should be included.
The FDA surrenders
Sadly, the FDA appears to have thrown in the towel, although I don’t know that there’s anything else it could have done:In a separate email to staff Wednesday, Janet Woodcock, who directs the agency’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, told staff to direct any inquiries about the new law to drug companies.
“We believe that sponsors are in the best position to provide information on the development status of their products,” Woodcock wrote.
In other words, if Congress is going to cut the FDA out of right-to-try decisions and regulation, screw it all. Patients, don’t call us. Congress has eliminated our authority to deal with this. Call the company that makes the drug you’re interested. Congress cut us out; we can no longer interfere. You’re on your own.
Of course, that’s the entire idea behind right-to-try. I can’t even say that I blame Woodcock. What else is the FDA to do? After all, right-to-try isn’t even really a “right.” All it is is the right to ask companies making experimental drugs if they’ll let them try the drug. The companies are under no obligation to provide the drug and can basically charge whatever they want if they do decide to provide the drug.
Let’s take a trip back in time, back to 2014, back when right-to-try laws first started passing in state legislatures. Those state laws were (and continue to be) all based on a legislative template promulgated by the libertarian Goldwater Institute. This template had several elements in common:
Anyone with a terminal illness is eligible for right-to-try.
Any drug that’s passed phase I trials, has an IND, and is still under clinical trials is eligible for right-to-try.
There is no liability for doctors or companies participating in right-to-try.
Insurance doesn’t have to pay for right-to-try drugs. (This provision can also be reasonably interpreted as saying that insurance companies also don’t have to pay for the treatment of complications that occur because of the use of right-to-try drugs.)
Patients wanting right-to-try drugs are on their own when it comes to cost.
Drug companies don’t have to provide their experimental drug.
Yes, right-to-try is a libertarian wet dream. That’s not surprising, given its source. Again, right-to-try is a product of the Goldwater Institute, which tries to paint itself as a libertarian “think tank,” but has never been a true think tank. Rather, it has always been a far right-wing advocacy organization, so much so that before he died Barry Goldwater actually wanted his name removed from the group, but backed off because the Institute was dear to his brother. Unfortunately, the press treats the Goldwater Institute as a real think tank when it really isn’t. Rather, it’s part of the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), a corporate-funded bill mill. That’s why, before there was right-to-try at the state level in 2014, there was a Goldwater Institute-written legislative template, a pre-written bill that could be (and was) modified as needed by states to fit into their existing regulatory framework. It’s why all state-level right-to-try laws contain the same elements listed above, including libertarian tropes like elimination of liability for companies and doctors participating in right-to-try, and provisions that basically leave terminally ill patients on their own if things go south. It’s why the Koch brothers’ threw their weight behind right-to-try and started lying about it, virtually guaranteeing that its Republican toadies, sycophants, and lackeys in Congress would find a way—any way—to pass something they could call “right-to-try.” That’s what happened.Right-to-try: The Burzynski of “compassionate use”
It can’t be repeated too many times. Right-to-try has never been about helping terminally ill patients, at least not primarily. It’s always been about dismantling the FDA, neutering it, reducing its power to regulate drugs. As a side effect, it will also facilitate preying upon terminally ill patients by quacks. As I like to say, it’s legalized cancer quack Stanislaw Burzynski’s entire business model.Think about it. His antineoplastons have passed phase I trials. He’s maintained a plethora of phase II trials registered with the FDA that he’s been using as a marketing tool to bring patients to the Burzynski Clinic for 20 years. He charges huge fees to patients to be on his “clinical trials.” Thanks to right-to-try, after having beaten the Texas Medical Board for the umpteenth time, he now no longer has to worry about the FDA any more. He’s free to prey on patients via right-to-try to his black heart’s content. Janet Woodcock basically said so by instructing FDA staff to tell patients making right-to-try inquiries just to call the company making the drug they want. I can’t wait to see what quack stem cell clinics do under this law. Certainly, Burzynski started using the Texas right-to-try law almost as soon as it was passed.Yes, the quackery potential behind right-to-try, I’m afraid, will be the subject of a future post, either here or at my not-so-super-secret other blog. In the meantime, I guess we’ll see what happens when the government abandons its responsibility to protect its citizens against drug companies. And don’t even get me started on the utter failure of medical professional organizations like the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) to speak out against state right-to-try bills. I was in contact with activists and legislators. They were begging professional medical organizations to give them ammunition against right-to-try bills and were met with silence, mainly because, as we opponents of right-to-try bills promoted by the Goldwater Institute found out, right to try is easy to demagogue. Its opponents are inevitably attacked as unsympathetic, uncaring, and wanting to prevent terminally ill patients from accessing their last chance at survival. In essence, opposition to right-to-try is painted as being akin to opposition to freedom and wanting to see terminally ill patients die horrible deaths. By the time ASCO actually spoke out last year, three years into the Goldwater Institute’s long game, it was way too little and way, way too late. More recently, ASCO issued a pretty close to useless FAQ for physicians to discuss right-to-try with their patients. ASCO failed. Big time.
Of course, it’s hard not to understand why ASCO, academic medical centers, and other medical organizations were reluctant to speak out. After all, the Goldwater Institute borrowed a page from the Burzynski playbook and used terminally ill patients as shields against criticism and weapons against critics. Criticizing right-to-try, no matter how dispassionately, let one be painted as attacking these patients. Burzynski knew about the compassion all of us have for terminally ill patients and how it would make critics reluctant to attack his quackery too harshly. The Goldwater Institute knows it too. This demagoguery has been very effective. After all, right-to-try is the law in 40 states and a federal version just became law this week.
We’ll see what happens next. Certainly, I will be watching. And reporting.

