Jared Goff 2016 trade offers case study in moving up in draft for QB
Rich Hammond
link: http://www.marinij.com/sports/20180423/jared-goff-2016-trade-offers-case-study-in-moving-up-in-draft-for-qb
If there are any NFL teams out there tempted to move up in Thursday’s draft to grab one of the top quarterbacks, they might want to consider what that will cost.
The Rams have some expertise in this area. On April 14, 2016, they sent a pile of draft picks to the Tennessee Titans for the right to select first in that month’s draft, then used that pick on former Marin Catholic High quarterback Jared Goff.
The Rams and Titans seem destined to be linked together forever. They met in the Super Bowl 18 years ago. They both fired Jeff Fisher. And two years ago, they partnered in a massive trade.
Both teams missed the playoffs in 2016 but qualified last season, and the Rams beat the Titans in a late-season game in Nashville. Goff made the Pro Bowl last season and the Titans used the Rams’ picks to build an impressive pool of young talent on offense and defense.
The trade is now complete, with no more outstanding draft picks on the table. So who won? Here’s an in-depth look at the trade and how it impacted the rosters of both teams:
THE TRADE
The Rams sent a 2016 first-round pick (No. 15 overall), two 2016 second-round picks (Nos. 43 and 45), a 2016 third-round pick (No. 76), a 2017 first-round pick (which ended up being No. 5) and a 2017 compensatory third-round pick (which ended up being No. 100) to the Tennessee Titans for a 2016 first-round pick (No. 1 overall), a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 113) and a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 177)
TRADES WITHIN THE TRADE
– The Rams later flipped the Titans’ 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 113) to the Chicago Bears for a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 117) and a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 206)
– The Titans later flipped the Rams’ 2016 first-round pick (No. 15) and the Rams’ 2016 third-round pick (No. 76) to the Cleveland Browns for a 2016 first-round pick (No. 8) and a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 176)
– The Titans later flipped the Browns’ 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 176) and a 2017 sixth-round pick to the Denver Broncos for a 2016 fifth-round pick (No. 157) and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 253)
WHO THE RAMS GOT
– Jared Goff, quarterback, Cal (2016 first round, No. 1 overall): Goff took over as the starter midway through the 2016 season and struggled with a poor offensive line and poor receivers, but took a major step forward in 2017 when he passed for 3,804 yards and 28 touchdowns and made the Pro Bowl, initially as an alternate.
– Pharoh Cooper, receiver, South Carolina (2016 fourth round, No. 117): Another slow start, Cooper contributed a bit on special teams as a rookie but thrived last season as a punt returner after Tavon Austin had fumbling issues. Cooper also had a 103-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and made the Pro Bowl as a return specialist.
– Temarrick Hemingway, tight end, South Carolina St. (2016 sixth round, No. 177): Hemingway appeared in eight games as a rookie, mostly on special teams, and didn’t have a catch. He broke his leg in the 2017 preseason and didn’t return, and now is third on the tight-end depth chart.
– Mike Thomas, receiver, Southern Miss (2016 sixth round, No. 206): After a solid showing in the Rams’ offseason program, Thomas was hit with a four-game suspension for a violation of the league’s substance policy. Thomas has played in 23 games in two seasons and has mostly been limited to special-teams duties.
WHO THE TITANS GOT
– Corey Davis, receiver, Western Michigan (2017 first round, No. 5 overall): Davis dealt with a nagging hamstring injury during his rookie season and had only 34 catches in 11 games (nine starts) but then broke through two two touchdown catches in the Titans’ playoff loss to New England.
– Jack Conklin, offensive lineman, Michigan St. (2016 first round, No. 8): To date, Conklin might be considered the jewel of the trade for the Titans. He was an All-Pro selection as a rookie right tackle and has started all 32 games, but he tore his ACL during the playoffs.
– Austin Johnson, defensive lineman, Penn St. (2016 second round, No. 43): This could be a player on the rise. Johnson, a nose tackle, started three games at the end of the 2017 regular season and, overall, has totaled 38 tackles and 1.5 sacks in 26 games.
– Derrick Henry, running back, Alabama (2016 second round, No. 45): Here’s the one to watch in 2018. Henry, the 2015 Heisman Trophy Winner, now is set to take over as the Titans’ primary back, after their release of DeMarco Murray. Henry has played in 31 games in two seasons (with four starts) and has totaled 1,234 yards and 10 touchdowns.
– Jonnu Smith, tight end, Florida International (2017 third round, No. 100): Smith immediately became a starter but didn’t have a high impact as a rookie, at least not in a statistical sense, as he totaled 157 receiving yards and two touchdowns in 16 games (13 starts).
– LeShaun Sims, cornerback, Southern Utah (2016 fifth round, No. 157): A part-time starter in his first two seasons, Sims has dealt with some injuries and has one interception in 26 games.
– Kalan Reed, cornerback, Southern Miss (2016 seventh round, No. 253): The Titans cut Reed at the end of their 2016 training camp, then signed him to the practice squad. Reed since has bounced back and forth, and played in seven regular-season games.
TRADE ANALYSIS
Who won? There’s no clear answer, and it might come down to a debate of quality vs. quantity. The Rams got Goff, but the Titans got four starters (Henry, Davis, Smith and Conklin).
The Rams won’t regret what they did. It’s difficult to find a young, franchise quarterback, and after an uneven rookie season, Goff now appears to have the skills to keep the Rams in playoff contention for years to come. Plus, his relatively low rookie contract gave the Rams flexibility to add other players.
It’s fair, at this point, to give the Titans a grade of “incomplete.” If Davis and Conklin return to health and productivity in 2018 and if Henry thrives as a lead running back, this trade will look quite good for Tennessee. But that’s quite a bit of “if.”
Given the fact that the Rams already got two Pro Bowlers out of the deal, and won their division sooner than the Titans, the Rams probably deserve the edge. A year ago, most everyone would have said the Titans “won” the trade. A year from now? The debate likely will continue for some time.
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