The Death of the GOP

I have been waiting for Trump for a long long time.

The Destroyer.

The only thing that could give him the Presidency
is a pre-election Indictment of Clinton.

w
v

bnw wrote:

Pathetic tripe from a butt sore “senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations”. NAFTA, GATT, TPP loving economic traitor is so upset. I love it. I revel in his pain. Conservatives finally had outsider candidates from which to choose and they chose Trump because he spoke to the concerns of the vast majority of conservatives and isn’t beholden to the establishment. Total repudiation of the Bush brand. Same for Romney. When Trump wins Ryan needs to step down as Speaker or be voted out.

—————-

Well I can’t tell the future, but my gut tells me,
the next Prez is Hillary. (barring an Indictment)

I say that because, i think Trump (and maybe Sanders) have ‘ceilings’
that make it difficult for them to win over that critical ‘middle ground’ type voter. Ya know. A lot of them middle-ground types seem a bit
tepid to me. They dont like scary candidates. Given a choice between
a scary candidate and a calm non-scary candidate, i think they will go for the incrementalist — Hillary.

Trump is gonna try real hard to reel in his ornery-ness
but i think its too late for him to get the skeerd voters.

There’s a reason Obama never got all hot and fiery in eight
years. He knew the voters he had to reach and he knew
what ‘not’ to do. Trump’s mistake is thinking everyone
is as pissed off as his core supporters.

I could be wrong of course, but thats how i see it.

w
v

I don’t know what “Death of the GOP” means. The GOP has morphed. But none of those people within the party are having a “Saul on his way to Damascus” moment of conversion to some different set of ideals. What we have is Fruit Basket Upset, not Death. All those forces are going to jockey around over the next couple of election cycles, but they are going to recongeal in some form unless one of the factions splits off to form a third party – and my wager there would be on the Tea Party people because they’re arrogant enough to think they can get their way simply by refusing to compromise on anything, and insisting on it. But I bet that split doesn’t happen. I bet, instead, Paul Ryan, or someone like him, comes out of the 2020 primary, and this year gets written off as an aberration. And while part of me hopes I am wrong about that, I’m afraid the alternative is worse.

One reason I think the GOP isn’t dying is that the Trump Phenomenon is not happening down ticket. All of the congressional seats and governorships are being waged by the usual establishment types of people. For the GOP to really be imperiled, it would have to facing mini-Donalds running for mayor all the way up to the US Senate, but that isn’t happening. It is only the head position that is in disarray. It is business as usual everywhere else. So the Death of the GOP stuff is your standard, lazy media coverage of a horse race, and just another manifestation of humans’ silly egocentrism that imagines that whatever they are experiencing is what everybody else is experiencing. But what is happening in the presidential race is not happening elsewhere.

Yet.

It could be that in 2018, we will see a bunch of Trumps running. In fact, it would surprise me if we don’t. I think a lot of potential candidates are going to copycat Trump’s style next time around, and then we can begin to see what is happening. But my guess is the GOP revolution is just starting rather than peaking at a Crisis Moment from which pieces are going to fall immediately.

That this disarray is well-deserved is what makes it so sweet. When Gingrich first stepped into congress in 1978, he brought with him a bold plan to break the perpetual minority status of Republicans in the house, and it worked. The plan was to hammer away at the theme of a corrupt, over-sized government establishment. Reagan famously got on board with that plan, and the refrain that government was the problem became a truism in American culture, leading to Gingrich’s sweeping revolution in ’94. And they became the Party of Blame. Blame all problems on somebody else. Blame Democrats, blame government, blame minorities, blame victims. Blame Muslims. Blame, blame, blame.

The problem is that the Republicans are now the establishment having dominated the political landscape in varying degrees for the past 35 years, even with a couple of nominal Democrats in the White House. And conditions for working people have worsened. So when you constantly complain that government is the problem, and you are the government, eventually you get the Tea Party and Donald Trump.

Their strategy is now coming back to eat them, but it is far from clear how much damage this attitude which THEY cultivated is going to damage them. Unfortunately, I think it is wishful thinking to foresee the death of the GOP. The conditions suggest to me that the far more likely outcome is increased demand for authoritarianism to cut through the “inefficient, corrupt government.” People are prepared for a house-cleaning. And if you get Donalds running up and down the ticket, it will certainly lead to the death of the GOP, but what replaces it may be far, far worse. The endemic racism, and fear, and economic uncertainty that muddle our culture combined with the rise of the authoritarian nationalism Trump champions suggests to me that the phoenix rising from the Republican party looks an awful lot like this one:

So when you wish for the Death of the GOP, give some thought to what you think is likely to emerge in its place.

bnw wrote:

I think Trump will highlight Hillary’s negatives directly to the people since the liberal media won’t. The public views her as untrustworthy and Trump will ask the tough questions. Questions like why won’t she release the transcript of a speech to Goldman Sachs that she was paid $600,000 to give? What could she have possibly said that was worth that much money? Trump wants to take Wall Street to task. Hillary won’t. Trump wants to audit the Federal Reserve. Hillary won’t. Trump wants trade deals that work for the american worker. Hillary wants the secrecy of the TPP which based upon prior similar deals of NAFTA and GATT have given the american worker the shaft. Trump doesn’t want to antagonize Russia into conflict, rather he wants to offer Putin assistance in his fight against ISIS. Hillary wants war with Russia. Have barely scratched the surface yet but Trump’s positions will appeal to many working or wanting to work democrats as well as independents.

The only so called scary thing about Trump is all the familiar voices of the establishment of both parties that have fed heartily at the public trough through the nations undeniable decline are raised in unison against Trump. The people will realize that is because the establishment doesn’t own him and that is good.

The email scandal is a slam dunk as anyone that has worked with or in the federal government handling such documentation knows. Hillary escaping prosecution will be a boon to Trump since people are tired of watching public officials breaking the law with no consequences.

I think Trump is a LOT stronger than others think as well.

1) Hillary rarely goes UP in polls. That’s her history and it’s WELL known.

2) For all the GOP reticence, ultimately, they’ll prefer Trump to Hillary in the White House because as they’re already seeing, when he needs help (and he needs a lot of it), he’s going to come to SOMEONE for help. So, either help him and BE that help or don’t and be left out. I think they’ll help.

3) The GOP has been itching for this election…to blast Hillary with both barrels since she was First Lady. There’s just NO WAY they sit this out. They couldn’t go as negative or as nasty as they wanted to go with Rick Lazio because every time they’ve run against her, the candidate was a “respectable” Republican, whatever that means. Well, no problem with that this time!!! This time, they can send outside groups and use every weapon in the arsenal; nuclear, biological, chemical and engage in all forms of asymmetrical political warfare. This is the Lee Atwater/Karl Rove wing’s true wet dream come true. NOTHING is off the table because what can they say that Trump probably hasn’t already said? What can they do that would truly alienate Trump’s core voters?

4) Trump will use his position to hammer away at the same positions Bernie has, but from a far nastier stance. He’s already said “politicians are bought and paid for. I know…because I bought ’em!” Rest assured, if she’s the Democratic Candidate, he’ll ask for the transcripts and the Crooked Hillary tweets will be a thing.

5) Between Bernie taking the high road and Trump taking the low road, Hillary is going to be fighting a two front war until late July. That’s going to hurt. She can’t win on principle or nasty. And just repeating her inevitability isn’t inspiring to anyone other than her tribe. It certainly didn’t inspire Indiana independents, who went for Bernie by over 40pts.

Just like Kerry was the better candidate who got Swiftboated… This is the election they’ve been waiting for and Trump is the only kind of candidate that allows them to be as unfettered as they’ve always wanted to be.

Moreover, I expect this election to be so toxic, they’ll describe it as Chernobyl with record low turnout.

Who’s that favor? Trump.

And come October, I expect we’ll see the GOP ground game really start to ramp up with tons of anti-Hillary stuff happen.

Anyone remember McConnell’s smug look after the 2008 election and everyone wonder’d “hey, he just got his ass kicked, why’s he looking so smug? Well, he had a pretty racist plan to obstruct everything, blame it on the black president and simply sweep not only the house and senate, but state houses across the south and midwest and not only own the entire congress, but have the infrastructure to gerrymander more than half the country for a generation. For ONE election? Yeah, it was worth it to them. Some states will be Republican for a decade or more after it’s clearly a Democratic state due to gerrymandered districts.

Now… really look. REALLY look. All that Trump upset.

It died down AWFUL QUICK, didn’t it?

I expect any resistance now is token while they work to get the plans in place.

I really don’t expect Hillary will win because she’s not going to appeal to millennials or Bernie voters. She truly in a remarkable bit of candor expects them, including independents, to come to her. That’s the way it’s been and it’s her turn and she’s entitled to it…is her way of thinking.

I think between actual progressives going with Jill Stein or staying home, with millennials likely staying home in droves because the negativity will be just off the scale toxic, suppressed voter turnout and inroads with white working class and even, surprisingly, Hispanic voters and Black voters (That Trump is around 10% is very bad for Hillary, number wise), it points to Trump actually being able to win.

He puts a number of states in play and while very blue states and very red states may vote bluer and redder, the rust belt may hurt Hillary where Trump got more votes than she did. And she lost West Virginia which should be a blue state. It won’t be this year for her.

I think politics is pornography for polite society. I don’t like it, mostly because of how disingenuously politics is talked about…like when describing “politicking”, we’re not describing going to war and young Americans dying or cutting a program and Americans going hungry, etc.

That said, I still understand it and the politics of this isn’t all that hard to see and understand once we get outside of the beltway, tribal, party dynamic.

It’s really simple. Trump is “the Disruptor”, to borrow the Bushism. Moreover, he creates a terrible synergy with the Republican dirty tricks machine, the likes of which we may never see again in our Nation’s history (maybe explicitly because of what we’re about to see).

The answer is the other disruptor. That would be Bernie.

However, that’s not going to happen because of the tribalism and personal political ambitions rampant within the current party system.

So, when we see Trump on the steps of Congress… remember, it’s because it was Hillary’s turn. And it’s everyone’s fault for not sticking with the script that Hillary was “anointed”. At least, that will be the Dem narrative. It won’t be “we shoulda gone with Bernie”.

I believe the repudiation of the Bush agenda is complete. The vestiges of that wing of the party will not support Trump. The Tea Party that Dick Armey co-opted from Ron Paul supporters years ago is now seeing its discontent with the status quo come to fruition. Trump isn’t really Tea Party but he has tapped into enough of that vein to get their support. That really seems to be Trump’s greatest strength. He isn’t a perfect fit within the party but that helps him outside the party with independents and democrats. Don’t be surprised when Trump garners more union support than the so called experts believe. Same for the black vote. All people that want to work will have a clear choice in Trump.

You mention Atwater/Rove but I see Trump innately qualified and wired and primed to go after the target rich resume of Hillary. I think Rove is close to being relegated to insignificance along with so many others in the establishment that actively opposed the outsider sentiment manifest in the Trump movement.

You describe Hillary well. What is interesting about Hillary is her lack of success in government at anything other than enriching herself. She’s been great at making money giving speeches and as a new generation will learn, Cattle Futures.

This is not going to be a low turnout election. I believe former Hillary supporters may well in large numbers not vote when her past is brought to the fore. Trump will draw record voters to the rapidly changing GOP and office holders better fall in line.

Well Zooey you can bank on Hillary not looking out for you. She’s too busy enriching herself via “public service”. That won’t be lost on the electorate. Trump as a successful businessman does make money. It is called success in the private sector. It is what he has to do.

The Bush wing is dead. It can go elsewhere. Good riddance.

You view Trump as “imperialistic”? How strange considering Obama has overthrown the duly elected pro-Russian Ukrainian president extending US influence to the Russian border while sending Kid Biden to suck at the oil teat and help Monsanto pollute that nations granary with GMO. That GMO is already a seriously contentious issue in Europe, in particular Russia. The GMO pollen will be carried on the wind into Russia. Then you have the mess in Libya and the creation of ISIS, the failed aggression against Syria which was guaranteed to butt heads with Putin as it is one of only 3 foreign bases of Russia. Just 3. Yet the US has 800 foreign military bases in 70 countries. Trump wants to restructure NATO and let Russia fight ISIS. Hillary is the war monger. Then there’s the Iran Deal. North Korea too.

Well, lets say Trump wins. Is there a silver lining?

Maybe, the Democraps wake up and see that the DNC crowd
has ruined the party and turned it into Republican-lite,
and maybe they realize they need to turn left — toward Bernie-type candidates.

Yes? No?

My gut tells me Hillary wins, though. I simply do not think
the undecideds and tepid-middle-grounders will feel
safe with Trump. They know Hillary. They dont know Trump.
He’s too scary for them. Hillary just means more of the
same which is fine with them.

I gotta go vote today. Today is WV’s primary.
My Bernie sign will be lit up all day today 🙂

w
v

• This reply was modified 8 years, 4 months ago by wv.

I agree with WV that middle America is going to feel more comfortable with Hillary.

I agree with ZN that there’s no way the DNC would conclude that they lost because they’ve become Republican Lite. They would conclude that a bunch of children threw a tantrum in public and embarrassed the whole party, and consider measures to diminish further embarrassment.

Ozoneranger wrote:

I’ll chime in here.

If you told me six months ago that Trump would be the GOP nominee, I would have laughed in your face. Which is something I never, ever do to anyone. It’s just bad form. The thought of him as the face of the nation makes me want to puke.

Still, I’m astonished he’s come some far, given how clueless he is on most things (defense, foreign policy, trade). I’m equally surprised how Bernie has lasted so long considering his cluelessness on banking and the economy. That was made abundantly clear in his Daily News interview. I almost felt sorry for the old sod as he repeatedly whiffed at the softballs he was thrown. Hillary? The Power-Hungry Pandering One? To be honest, she would be the safest bet to keep the ship at an even keel for four years until someone better comes along in 20.

That said, I think anyone who thinks our election process is rigged, as Bernie claims, is dead wrong. He’s a walking contradiction of his own claims. It’s all about anger and frustration on both the left (with Millennials and old lefties like WV and Zooey, haha!) and the right (older white middle-class voters and my Dad). In the long haul, I think this is a good thing for our democracy. People reconnecting with the political process…misguided as the are.

This election cycle has been truly bizarre, and in a macabre way, entertaining. I think there’s an old Chinese saying: May you live in interesting times.

We certainly do.

I take voting seriously. So I’ll probably sit out the presidential and concentrate on local and state.

Well, by ‘rigged’ I think Bernie means:
1 It takes a ton of money to be elected (no poor people need apply)
2 and the corps and mega-media and big-bizness interests and banks have
more say in who gets elected than the average human.

w
v

Or outright vote fraud.

Yeah. To the degree that election fraud actually happens…it isn’t voters stuffing the ballot box. It’s managers screwing voters out of the right to vote.

But, you know, say “Voter fraud” enough times accompanied by mental images of darkies, and your work is done.

• This reply was modified 8 years, 4 months ago by Zooey.

You’re conflating voter fraud with a rigged election system.

No one on this forum will argue that having two private parties that privately select the candidates and privately create the rules by which they are elevated is ultimately in the best interest of our nation nor is it laughably democratic even as it is mostly open to “the people”.

Voter fraud is when one person casts an illegal ballot.

And in the last 30 years… Voter fraud just is NOT a thing.

Might it have been a thing in the 60s? I dunno. Maybe.

However, with gerrymandered districts, I’m not surprised that Obama would get 100% of the vote in certain districts. Not surprised at all.

That’s fixable NOT by shouting VOTER FRAUD and insisting that phantom people are cheating and disenfranchising millions of voters.

This is fixable by ending gerrymandering and creating heterogeneous districts that don’t look like viral DNA when looked at on a map.

Voter fraud is not real. Not in any way that matters.

You wanna know what is real? Ghost peppers. Those are real.

Jon Stewart on the talk-radio situation

zn wrote:

bnw wrote:

Mackeyser wrote:

Voter fraud is not real. Not in any way that matters.

Except to win.

We know the purpose of it if it DID exist.

But Mack is saying it does not exist. Not in any statistically meaningful way.

If you believe it does, you have just swallowed some propaganda whole. I will say this. You will not be able to present any evidence for it that stands up to scrutiny.

.

It definitely exists.

There Are Nearly 300 Cases of Voter Fraud in America