the repeat topic: OL

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  • #17331
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    How hard is this OL to fix? IMO not that hard. Though, to stress it, this is all IMO. It’s too soon to make valid predictions. You can just map out some likely trends.

    The problems.

    2014, to me, was just another chapter in the Rams long saga of OL injuries.

    All 4 centers were hurt. This is an eye-popping fact, and I have never heard of it before. Wells got ill, lost weight, took a month off to get back to strength, and then got injured in the “Chiefs game massacre”–the game where the Rams lost 3 linemen, including Long and Saffold. Barnes was listed with shoulder issues (I don;t know much about it beyond that). Jones gained strength and weight in the off-season, then had back surgery and in its aftermath couldn’t lift weights, and during the season was just not ever ready to play. Rhaney went on IR.

    Guard. Robinson was supposed to be a guard but the Long injury made him a tackle. Saffold was hampered by the shoulder injury he got in the Chiefs game massacre. As a result he was nowhere near as effective at guard as he was in 2013, where he was seen as a rising star. Joseph was not supposed to play. He had one good game (Denver) but was subpar other than that.

    Tackle: Long going out means the Rams had a rookie LOT. An especially green one at that. This caused them to change up several things and alter protections and to generally help him out. Barksdale played well from the day he started in 2013 through 2014 until the Chiefs game massacre. It’s at that point that his play gets wobbly. But that one is simple. Once the rest of the OL is a mess, he sinks with it–it is rare and difficult for the one healthy vet to play well when the rest of the line is a problem. If nothing else, they had to account for Robinson which left Barksdale more on an island.

    Solutions?

    MY bet is that both Long and Wells are gone. If Long comes back it’s not as the LOT.

    Depth? We don’t know anything yet about Jones, Rhaney, Bond, Washington, or Baker. It is possible that one or more of those guys develop. Both Rhaney and Bond got some buzz last summer so we shall see. Boudreau has a long history of manufacturing a player or 2 out of these kinds of prospects.

    FA? I bet they sign a decently-priced vet. But routinely, you see teams fix guard spots by signing a modestly priced young vet who fits the system and comes through. Think of Tom Nutten, for example. That type. Nothing prevents them, of course, from doing both things–signing both a name-brand FA and then a comparatively more obscure type like Nutten was.

    Draft? Chances are they draft one guy high (rounds 1-3) and probably another low if not a couple of them. Last year there were 3 starting centers in the league who were rookie 4th and 5th round picks. You don’t need a college celeb high draft pick center–you can take a guard who suits the position and convert him.

    As I see it, most of the problems came from playing a banged up OL with a rookie LOT.

    Robinson has to improve. I don’t see how he WOULDN’T. The only question is how much.

    Saffold has to recover. He ought to be fine. This kind of surgery ought to have him ready by camp.

    They need to settle on a right OT. They have candidates. Barksdale, possibly Bond, Baker, maybe Long too. As a rule ROT is not a challenging fix. If it’s Barksdale I expect him to return to form if he is part of a reasonably healthy OL.

    That leaves guard and center.

    That’s not a hard fix. Finding one guard and one center in the off-season when they have both free agency and the draft? Of all the OL fixes they could have faced, that’s just not as challenging as having to come up with a left OT.

    Teams regularly fix OLs in the off-season if the issue is center and guard. They will have their pick of options.

    If I had to bet, I would say we see a rookie center and a veteran guard. And neither has to be a star. They only have to be healthy and pretty good. OR….maybe this will not work the way some expect, where they draft a guy high and immediately start him. They could fill in OG and OC with good veteran prospects acquired in various ways and then manufacture depth with a high pick who sits. Or they could combine a starting high pick with a vet of some kind (and again, not necessarily a high-priced FA…center and guard are routinely fixed around the league with young vet FAs and trades who then step up).

    There are a lot of things they can do and I bet they do all of them at once. Get starters, improve depth.

    #17333
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I agree with all that.

    w
    v
    “Have the courage to be ignorant of a great many things in order
    to avoid the calamity of being ignorant of everything.”
    Sydney Smith (1771-1885)

    #17338
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    I don’t see Fisher starting a rookie at center.

    #17340
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    I don’t see Fisher starting a rookie at center.

    That’s a real consideration, yeah. We don’t know yet for sure but that’s a thought.

    And he’s less likely to start 2 rookies.

    And, does he want to have a rookie LOG next to Robinson?

    And, how long do they want to keep RS from playing ROG, his best position?

    So, lots of things to consider.

    #17341
    bnw
    Blocked

    We don’t know about QB yet so how can you tailor an O line?

    The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.

    Sprinkles are for winners.

    #17348
    rfl
    Participant

    We don’t know anything yet about Jones, Rhaney, Bond, Washington, or Baker.

    I think we know something. Perhaps not definitive, but something.

    Jones, for example, has shown nothing but injuries in 2 years. There has not been, to my knowledge, a single indication that he can play. When he did play, the reports were abysmal.

    We know he hasn’t been cut. What that adds up to, we don’t know. But I can’t see that it adds up to much.

    As for the others, I know only this. Wells has sucked and been injury-prone for 3 years. And no one has stepped up. I know that. And to me, that’s a black hole at OC. With zero indication of a viable upgrade.

    That’s not a hard fix.

    I cannot even begin to share this optimism.

    This FO has been here for 3 years, spent serious money and draft picks on the OL. And the results have been abysmal. These facts we do know.

    To imagine that this bunch, working with a completely uninspiring set of candidates, is suddenly going to be able to turn it around and get our OL to middle-level …

    In my opinion that’s fairy tale dreaming. Not by any means an easy fix.

    By virtue of the absurd ...

    #17350
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    This FO has been here for 3 years, spent serious money and draft picks on the OL. And the results have been abysmal. These facts we do know.

    I disagree. When this line has been healthy, it has performed. The results are far from abysmal.

    In the 2nd half of 2012, after they got over the injuries from the first half, they had a 5.4% sack percentage (pretty good), Jackson was getting 4.3 a carry, and they were going toe to toe with top ten defenses, including that year’s SF team.

    After they got in a running threat in 2013, they were a good run blocking/play-action line, good enough to challenge Seattle, even with Clemens at qb, and good enough to take on top 10 defenses. Barksdale was getting good reviews at ROT and Saffold was a rising star at ROG. If you take Stacy’s numbers across 16 games the Rams would have been 8th in rushing in 2013, and again, that’s even with Clemens at qb.

    In 2014 injuries in the off-season and summer kept them from playing together. When in sync they performed decently, even with Robinson at guard. It was the Chiefs game and multiple injuries that tore that down.

    The big thing with this OL has always been injuries. When relatively healthy it has performed well.

    This was as true of 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 as it is now. Demoff said it. The Rams achilles heel has always been OL injuries.

    Both Boudreau and Fisher have put together good lines in the past, and in fact they have a cumulative 40 years of experience doing it. If you account for the injuries, you can see the basis for assuming they will do it again.

    #17351
    rfl
    Participant

    PS. What are our building blocks for moving forward?

    – A quality Guard/Tackle who gets hurt a lot. A lot.
    – Theoretically speaking, a stud rookie who was played at 2 positions and looked sub-standard at LOT. And no Plan B except for the oft-injured OG/OT.
    – A mediocre ROT who looked bad, put in a decent year, then reverted to poor play this year … and is out of contract, meaning he might not sign.

    And … crickets. A bunch of no-name guys or broke down has-beens. Guys described above as unknowns. On a team which, over the last half decade, has been almost completely inept at getting unknowns to play decently. (Barksdale is the only 1 I can think of.)

    We need AT LEAST a starting quality OC, OG, and OT (maybe Barksdale, if he re-signs and if last year wasn’t a reversion to his true quality). And we need Robbie to get a LOT better and Saffold to stay healthy. And we need 3-5 backups who can actually play decent football.

    How this can be described as an easy fix I really don’t see.

    By virtue of the absurd ...

    #17354
    rfl
    Participant

    I disagree. When this line has been healthy, it has performed. The results are far from abysmal.

    Demoff said it. The Rams achilles heel has always been OL injuries.

    Well, apart from the question of whether any Ram OL in the last decade has been any good (probably not) the issue of injuries has to be faced. It isn’t just a factor that can be dismissed as an aberration.

    As I’ve said before, THIS TEAM HAS REPEATEDLY BET ON GUYS WITH INJURY HISTORIES! Those bets have gone bad again and again. Jones is a classic example. They drafted him hurt, he’s still hurt, and the BEST we can say is that we don’t know if he can play. THEY DRAFTED THAT PACKAGE! They own the injury.

    And you can’t just set injuries aside as if they don’t count” “Well, in the 6 games our OL was healthy, we were able to …” It doesn’t work that way.

    This team has not played with a good OL through a year in at least a decade.

    Why one would think it would be easy to suddenly do it this next year I can’t imagine.

    Injuries matter. And poor talent pools matter. And we’ve had both for a long time.

    I guess we have very different ideas of what an “easy fix” would be.

    By virtue of the absurd ...

    #17370
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Well, apart from the question of whether any Ram OL in the last decade has been any good (probably not) the issue of injuries has to be faced. It isn’t just a factor that can be dismissed as an aberration.

    As I’ve said before, THIS TEAM HAS REPEATEDLY BET ON GUYS WITH INJURY HISTORIES! Those bets have gone bad again and again. Jones is a classic example. They drafted him hurt, he’s still hurt, and the BEST we can say is that we don’t know if he can play. THEY DRAFTED THAT PACKAGE! They own the injury.

    And you can’t just set injuries aside as if they don’t count” “Well, in the 6 games our OL was healthy, we were able to …” It doesn’t work that way.

    This team has not played with a good OL through a year in at least a decade.

    Why one would think it would be easy to suddenly do it this next year I can’t imagine.

    Injuries matter. And poor talent pools matter. And we’ve had both for a long time.

    I guess we have very different ideas of what an “easy fix” would be.

    They did sign guys with injury histories, but that is not the same as saying they repeatedly bet on it.

    There was no reason to suppose Long would have other injuries. The question he raised when he was signed was whether he was still the same player. To say someone could have anticipated a knee? Well no one did. No one at the poster level or the national level said Long would get different injuries…the question was whether he was the same player after the arm surgeries.

    Wells had no history of injuries before the Rams and his long list of injuries with the Rams (plus the infection) are just bizarre.

    A lis franc fracture in the foot is not supposed to cause you to wonder about a Jones’s back.

    Saffold is a bet, that’s true.

    But then also there is no way on earth any team can anticipate having 4 injured centers the same year. That’s just weird.

    And yes if you want a full and complete assessment of an OL, whether it has crossed the threshold into multiple injuries to the point where it is no longer effective raises very specific questions, but they don’t include questions about the coaches and the strategy. That’s just luck. Yet if they perform well when relatively healthy THAT is the clue you need to determine if these guys can fix it. Because the default setting is good…that is always a positive sign.

    I know why I think they can fix it in a year. Because they are on the right track, as evidenced by how they play in the stretches where they were relatively healthy (and I never just say “healthy.”) And because I have looked at how other teams did it. In 2013 both the Baltimore and Giants lines were wrecks. It was so bad in Baltimore they were trading away starters during the season. Both lines got fixed in one off-season…both lines are now rightfully considered good. Why was it fixed in one off-season? Because in both cases they didn’t have to go find a left OT. In both cases they had players to build around. And in both cases they found ways to repair OC and OG without straining resources.

    We’ve seen it with the Rams. In 98, the OL was

    Pace Miller Flannery Wiegert Gandy

    And it was not considered a particularly good one.

    In 99 it was

    Pace Nutten Gruttadauria Timmerman Miller

    and it was considered much better. That;s without using 98 or 99 draft picks higher than the 5th round on OL. (They drafted 2 guards in those 2 years but they were both non-entities: Roundtree and Spikes.)

    Anyway.

    None of this is set in stone, it’s just how I see this one.

    .

    #17372
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I think its worth at least noting that
    Snisher has done a pretty good job
    building the defense and special teams.

    Its not like they are blithering idiots
    when it comes to personnel.

    Just seems to me, that its more likely
    than not that they are gonna Fix the
    OLine.

    They know everything depends on it.

    w
    v

    #17385
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    My father-in-law has pointed out that anything is easy…if you know how to do it.

    Getting two solid-to-good OL (and a qb) is easy. That’s 3 guys.

    Ya just have to get the right three.

    The trick is knowing which three guys are the right ones.

    #17387
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Getting two solid-to-good OL (and a qb) is easy. That’s 3 guys.

    Needless to say, finding a guard is not the same as a qb. Though yes finding a good guard…not just a guard…is not that hard, compared to other positions. It’s not so easy that in fact every team has 2 good guards. But it’s not like finding a good CB, qb, LOT, or #1 WR etc.

    But one reason it’s relatively less difficult is because you can find them so many different ways. Draft a guard, or draft a tackle and convert him. Sign a FA guard, or sign a young FA tackle and convert him. There;s more of them than good CBs or LOTs.

    Heck between 98 and 99 the Rams changed every single OL position except LOT. Gruttaduaria had been the center, but was injured in 98. Miller was inherited. The only 2 good linemen the Vermeil Rams ever actually drafted were Pace and Turner. They scrounged up Nutten and McCollum as bargain FAs. The signed Timmerman as a high market FA. In the process, they dumped a 1st and a 2nd round draft pick (Gandy and Wiegert).

    #17404
    rfl
    Participant

    I think its worth at least noting that
    Snisher has done a pretty good job
    building the defense and special teams.

    Its not like they are blithering idiots
    when it comes to personnel.

    Just seems to me, that its more likely
    than not that they are gonna Fix the
    OLine.

    They know everything depends on it.

    w
    v

    Well, I have certainly never said they were blithering idiots.

    Indeed, I have said quite often that I rate Snead’s performance fairly highly. That’s why I plead for a distinction between Snead and Fisher. I would repeat that plea in this discussion.

    I also plead for a recognition of the mixed middle. Snead has built up the talent for the defense and the special teams. He has drafted RBs well, too.

    But success in cases A, B, and C does not safely predict success in Case C. One can hit a home run in the 2nd and strike out in the 4th. Also, there are GMs who know how to draft position X but not position Y.

    So, I don’t see the logic of your post. Not because I think these guys are idiots. But because A) I see problems and B) these guys have a 3 year track record of failing to solve those problems.

    And that’s the part that continues to astonish me about the near-consensus on this board. This assumption that, after 3 years of not getting things done, the Ram FO is to be expected to get them right next year.

    Maybe they will. Damn, I hope they do. And you’re right. They HAVE done some things well. I freely acknowledge that those things count. I insist that the failures count as well.

    And the odds of success are low. They always are. And for a regime that has not moved the needle significantly in 3 years of trying, I simply cannot understand why anyone would just assume that they they will beat the odds this time.

    It’s just a strange dynamic right now, or, at least, it’s strange to me. I listen to the optimistic projections and the assertions that things will be easy, I remember how we have shared these expectations in recent years, and I look back on the string of failures. And I just do not get how folks whose intelligence and perspicacity I esteem can fool themselves yet again.

    I just don’t understand it.

    By virtue of the absurd ...

    #17405
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I think its worth at least noting that
    Snisher has done a pretty good job
    building the defense and special teams.

    Its not like they are blithering idiots
    when it comes to personnel.

    Just seems to me, that its more likely
    than not that they are gonna Fix the
    OLine.

    They know everything depends on it.

    w
    v

    Well, I have certainly never said they were blithering idiots.

    Indeed, I have said quite often that I rate Snead’s performance fairly highly. That’s why I plead for a distinction between Snead and Fisher. I would repeat that plea in this discussion.

    I also plead for a recognition of the mixed middle. Snead has built up the talent for the defense and the special teams. He has drafted RBs well, too.

    But success in cases A, B, and C does not safely predict success in Case C. One can hit a home run in the 2nd and strike out in the 4th. Also, there are GMs who know how to draft position X but not position Y.

    So, I don’t see the logic of your post. Not because I think these guys are idiots. But because A) I see problems and B) these guys have a 3 year track record of failing to solve those problems.

    And that’s the part that continues to astonish me about the near-consensus on this board. This assumption that, after 3 years of not getting things done, the Ram FO is to be expected to get them right next year.

    Maybe they will. Damn, I hope they do. And you’re right. They HAVE done some things well. I freely acknowledge that those things count. I insist that the failures count as well.

    And the odds of success are low. They always are. And for a regime that has not moved the needle significantly in 3 years of trying, I simply cannot understand why anyone would just assume that they they will beat the odds this time.

    It’s just a strange dynamic right now, or, at least, it’s strange to me. I listen to the optimistic projections and the assertions that things will be easy, I remember how we have shared these expectations in recent years, and I look back on the string of failures. And I just do not get how folks whose intelligence and perspicacity I esteem can fool themselves yet again.

    I just don’t understand it.

    Well, I dont know the future anymore than anyone else,
    but my own ‘gut’ tells me that every single personnel guy in the Rams-Building
    KNOWS that this team cannot get off the ground without
    the addition of some healthy, strong, studs on the Oline.
    I mean its just so obvious thats what they need.

    They will throw everything they have at that problem.
    They’ll draft players, they’ll sign free agents.

    So, yeah, i think they will fix it.

    Even though they screwed up with some of
    the earlier personnel decisions.

    w
    v

    #17407
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Even though they screwed up with some of
    the earlier personnel decisions.

    Even that’s open to debate.

    I don’t see them as having screwed up with decisions, plural.

    I don;t think the results are good for 2014, but then, I always stress that the Rams OL history includes massive doses of bad luck.

    Who injures 4 centers in one year?

    And I promise you, the issue with Long when they signed him was whether he could still play at a high level. No one said “he will have other injuries.” The fear was that the arms weren’t fixed, not that he would start working on injuring the legs.

    In terms of fixing it, they clearly are. So I agree with you there.

    And as I said, to me, the stand-out thing is that the PB/JF axis has a combined 40 years of fielding good OLs. Odds favor them doing it again.

    #17412
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Even that’s open to debate.

    I don’t see them as having screwed up with decisions, plural.

    I don;t think the results are good for 2014, but then, I always stress that the Rams OL history includes massive doses of bad luck.

    Who injures 4 centers in one year?

    And I promise you, the issue with Long when they signed him was whether he could still play at a high level. No one said “he will have other injuries.” The fear was that the arms weren’t fixed, not that he would start working on injuring the legs.

    In terms of fixing it, they clearly are. So I agree with you there.

    And as I said, to me, the stand-out thing is that the PB/JF axis has a combined 40 years of fielding good OLs. Odds favor them doing it again.

    Well, I just dont really agree on Jake Long. I view him
    as a big fat personnel Mistake. I dont think thats an unfair conclusion.
    Lots of posters thought Long was too big an “injury risk” back when
    they made the signing. I mean, i remember Laram was all over that one.

    So we disagree about that, but I dont wanna go over the same ground.

    For me, Long counts as a personnel mistake.

    w
    v

    #17413
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    For me, Long counts as a personnel mistake.

    Yeah it’s open to debate, so you rightly stress he does for you (count as a mistake).

    But see how all these subjective judgements lead to other things?

    Some decide Long is a mistake. Therefore the coaching has erred putting a line together. That evokes for some issues of doubt.

    Some don’t see him as a mistake. In fact, in spite of the obvious shortcomings as a pure athletic pass-blocking LOT, when he was in gear, he was a very good play action/run blocking LOT. There is no mistake, from the point of view, in signing a player who then gets hit by a freak knee injury. (I don’t buy the idea that if your arms had surgery that means you are a walking injury time-bomb waiting to happen. To me that’s just superstition. Nothing in arm surgery rationally equals “and there will be other injuries, not to the arms.”)

    So there was no coaching mistake, and the whole doubts thing when it comes to coaches and personnel decisions is just not there.

    None of this is hardcore “reveal level” evidence, it’s all just mutually exclusive value judgements. Interpretation. Opinions.

    So no one is in a position to say “why do you ignore the truth.” (As much as I would like to do it that way … s). It’s suppositions and inferences either way.

    So, you’re dead wrong…but I have to qualify that with “in my opinion.” Which is unfair, but that’s life.

    #17415
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    None of this is hardcore “reveal level” evidence, it’s all just mutually exclusive value judgements. Interpretation. Opinions.

    So no one is in a position to say “why do you ignore the truth.” It’s suppositions and inferences either way.

    Let a thousand flowers die.

    Thats what i say.

    w
    v
    “You have come to the shore. There are no instructions.”
    ― Denise Levertov

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