predictions: Rams at Arizona

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  • #11244
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    ARZ looks like a tough well-coached team whose sum is greater than its parts. Their only loss was to Denver on the road. They have beaten SF, San Diego, PHIL, and Dallas.

    They are 23rd on offense, including 16th in passing yards and 28th in rushing yards. They have top pass protection (sack percentage = 4.4%). They have Palmer and some weapons.

    On defense, they are 19th total, 32nd against the pass and 3rd against the run. They are 30th in sacks with 8.

    #11245
    Avatar photoAgamemnon
    Participant

    If we blitz too much, we will lose. Otherwise, I think we have a chance.

    Agamemnon

    #11246
    Winnbrad
    Participant

    I have no idea. The Rams, seemingly, are 10 different teams rolled into one.

    If these Rams were a movie, they’d be “Sybil”.

    So I don’t know what the hell is gonna happen anymore.

    #11251
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I have no idea. The Rams, seemingly, are 10 different teams rolled into one.
    If these Rams were a movie, they’d be “Sybil”.
    So I don’t know what the hell is gonna happen anymore.

    I would think Carson Palmer is going to try to
    dink and dunk all the way down the field.
    He’s not gonna hold the ball and let Quinn
    and Donald kill him.

    So, somehow, someway, Greg Williams has to
    find a way to stop the short passing game
    to Fitzgerald and company.

    Rams are seven point underdogs again.
    http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_odds.shtml

    Saints favored by 4.5 over the 49ers.

    w
    v

    #11261
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I watched some of the Cardinals vs Dallas
    on replay — They look Sooooo different
    from the Rams. They look smooth, efficient,
    intelligent, poised, well-coached.

    Carson Palmer throws fast-accurate-darts in the
    ten to fifteen yard range. Just Zings
    them into tight windows.
    He spreads the ball around.

    I cant see the Rams beating this team.
    I can see the Rams giving up some
    big plays to this team.

    w
    v

    • This reply was modified 10 years ago by Avatar photowv.
    #11263
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    I think this gets down to confidence again.

    Davis made a couple of huge mistakes in the SF game, but the Rams didn’t fold this time like they did with huge mistakes by other players against other teams. That’s IMO because the team believes it’s always “in it” with a West opponent.

    #11266
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I think this gets down to confidence again.

    Davis made a couple of huge mistakes in the SF game, but the Rams didn’t fold this time like they did with huge mistakes by other players against other teams. That’s IMO because the team believes it’s always “in it” with a West opponent.

    When i watch the Cardinal defense,
    the players just look like they are always
    in a good position to make the tackle.
    When i compare it to the Rams, it seems like
    the Ram players are always lunging and
    over-running or almost-over-running things.
    There’s just a sense that the cards Defenders
    are not running around as much. I dunno.

    w
    v

    #11276
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    i think the rams pass rush is gonna have to be on. i think the run defense is gonna have to be the best it’s been.

    i think davis cannot have the same game he had last week. and i think the rams are gonna either have to win the turnover battle by at least 2 or have some sort of huge special teams play. a blocked punt, return touchdown. something.

    #11311
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from off the net

    ==

    aeneas1

    vegas has deemed the cards 7 point home favorites vs the rams this weekend. last weekend vegas deemed the niners 10.5 home favorites vs the rams. and a few weeks ago seattle was tabbed 7 point favorites @ the rams. in fact this weekend will mark the 8th straight time the rams have been named gameday dogs, ever since opening day when the rams were 3.5 home favorites vs the vikes.

    anyway the cards haven’t exactly manhandled opponents this season despite their 7-1 record, games have been close after 3 quarters. in fact the cards have trailed after 3 quarters in half the games they’ve played, and have led by a td or more just once after 3 quarters, against the hapless raiders.

    however the 4th quarter has been a different story for the cards, that’s when they’ve shined. minus their only loss to the broncos the cards have outscored every opponent they’ve faced in the 4th quarter, to the tune of 70-17, while blanking half of them. all told, arizona’s 4th quarter point differential of +36 is the league’s second best, behind the 5-3 chiefs who are at +37. this might not bode too well for the rams who rank 26th in 4th quarter score margin with a -19 point differential.

    #11319
    Crazylegs
    Participant

    If the defense plays reasonably well and the key to me is that if Davis is protected and not hurried or running for his life, the Rams can definitely win this game. As we’ve seen Davis gets rattled and makes really bad mistakes. Protect Davis and give him time and it’s a different Rams offense.

    #11322
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Protect Davis and give him time and it’s a different Rams offense.

    I actually think it’s the other way around. Davis doesn’t yet know how to counter the blitz. A qb is supposed to see that stuff pre-snap and adjust accordingly. Audible if there’s time, throw to a hot read and so on. If that weren’t true, then, blitzes would always work and no offense would ever burn the blitz and all qbs would be under duress every play. But actually offenses can make defenses stop blitzing by making the blitz costly. (There have certainly been several games this year where opposing offenses ate up the Rams defense when it blitzed.) All that depends on the qb however, and Davis does not have that yet, it seems. He also fails to see players downfield when he abandons the pocket, or mis-times his throws sometimes when he abandons the pocket. So I don’t think the issue is the line as much as the qb. In fact I think Davis himself is well aware of this. He talked about it after the Vikes game, that the sacks were on him not the OL, because he wasn’t getting into a rhythm and timing throws from the pocket. You see games where he is aware of that, and you see games where he forgets that.

    #11323
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Crazylegs wrote:
    Protect Davis and give him time and it’s a different Rams offense.

    I actually think it’s the other way around. Davis doesn’t yet know how to counter the blitz. A qb is supposed to see that stuff pre-snap and adjust accordingly. Audible if there’s time, throw to a hot read and so on. If that weren’t true, then, blitzes would always work and no offense would ever burn the blitz and all qbs would be under duress every play. But actually offenses can make defenses stop blitzing by making the blitz costly. (There have certainly been several games this year where opposing offenses ate up the Rams defense when it blitzed.) All that depends on the qb however, and Davis does not have that yet, it seems. He also fails to see players downfield when he abandons the pocket, or mis-times his throws sometimes when he abandons the pocket. So I don’t think the issue is the line as much as the qb. In fact I think Davis himself is well aware of this. He talked about it after the Vikes game, that the sacks were on him not the OL, because he wasn’t getting into a rhythm and timing throws from the pocket. You see games where he is aware of that, and you see games where he forgets that.

    Well i think its both the PassBlockers
    ‘and’ AustinD. There have been times
    Jake and Wells and others have just
    stunk.

    I kinda like the new line with GR
    at LT. He’ll make mistakes
    but he’ll get better every game
    and be a force out there, i would think.

    w
    v

    #11325
    rfl
    Participant

    I actually think it’s the other way around. Davis doesn’t yet know how to counter the blitz. A qb is supposed to see that stuff pre-snap and adjust accordingly. Audible if there’s time, throw to a hot read and so on. If that weren’t true, then, blitzes would always work and no offense would ever burn the blitz and all qbs would be under duress every play. But actually offenses can make defenses stop blitzing by making the blitz costly. (There have certainly been several games this year where opposing offenses ate up the Rams defense when it blitzed.) All that depends on the qb however, and Davis does not have that yet, it seems. He also fails to see players downfield when he abandons the pocket, or mis-times his throws sometimes when he abandons the pocket. So I don’t think the issue is the line as much as the qb. In fact I think Davis himself is well aware of this. He talked about it after the Vikes game, that the sacks were on him not the OL, because he wasn’t getting into a rhythm and timing throws from the pocket. You see games where he is aware of that, and you see games where he forgets that.

    Agreed.

    The whole business of giving up sacks is always complex and a team matter. Obviously, one can find plays in which an OL just whiffs. But most of the time, getting the ball off in time depends on WRs and QBs making the same reads and also the OL as a unit reading and reacting to stunts and blitzes. And in that formula, the QB is probably the lynch-pin.

    This by the way is where I think your long standing resistance to the idea that a QB can lift a team runs aground. Obviously, a QB can only do so much. But a really sharp QB can make an OL look really good, while a confused one can make it look like crap. QBs matter.

    I remember reading Instant Replay about 35 years ago. Jerry Kramer, the great GB LG, recalled games against Alex Karras and the Lions. In game 1, Karras had a great game, getting several sacks on Starr. In game 2, Starr was out and Zeke Bratkowski, the Shaun Hill of the Packers, played. He used subtle snap count variations to frustrate the DET DL. This gave Kramer the edge to stymie Karras and reverse the dynamic. Kramer gave a lot of credit to Zeke. The QB really matters.

    Anyway, Davis right now is causing more of the problems than the OL is. As I see it. I entirely agree with those who feel the opposition has figured out his game and that he is likely to continue to struggle. Our offense showed a lot of growth the first 6 games or so. But if Davis doesn’t pick it up, it’s going to be a dire spectacle the rest of the way.

    And I would love to see Hill get a chance.

    By virtue of the absurd ...

    #11338
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    This by the way is where I think your long standing resistance to the idea that a QB can lift a team runs aground. Obviously, a QB can only do so much. But a really sharp QB can make an OL look really good, while a confused one can make it look like crap. QBs matter.

    Yeah fair enough.

    j

    #11361
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Blitz cornerstone for effective, successful Cardinals’ defense

    November, 1, 2014

    http://espn.go.com/blog/arizona-cardinals/post/_/id/10194/blitz-cornerstone-for-effective-successful-cardinals-defense

    TEMPE, Ariz. — When Tony Jefferson heard how often the Arizona Cardinals have blitzed since the start of 2013, the safety started to laugh.

    He couldn’t believe how high the number was. Arizona has blitzed offenses on 47.5 percent of its dropbacks since Todd Bowles took over the defense last season.

    Bowles doesn’t think he’s calling for blitzes at that high of a rate, but when compared to other defenses, the stats don’t lie: Arizona is blitzing at the fourth-highest rate this season, sending five or more pass-rushers on 41.8 percent of dropbacks, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

    And if there’s one thing the Dallas Cowboys don’t want to see Sunday, it’s the blitz.

    They were blitzed 24 times in a loss to the Washington Redskins, and quarterback Tony Romo was blitzed on 61.5 percent of his dropbacks which led to five sacks according to ESPN Stats & Information.

    As Arizona watched Washington continue to exploit the Cowboys on Monday night, the Cardinals winced, however. Without realizing it, the Redskins gave the Cowboys a run-through for what 60 minutes against the Cardinals would be like.

    “We were one week late,” linebacker Larry Foote said. “I expect them to be better than what they were Monday night.”

    But it’s not like teams don’t know what’s coming against the Cardinals. Five of their seven opponents this season have faced their most blitzes against the Cardinals, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

    Expect that to continue Sunday against Dallas.

    “Just seeing that, I just know that we got to be on point with all our blitzes,” rookie defensive end Kareem Martin said. “I feel like we can do the same thing if we’re effective with ours.”

    Even when teams know what’s coming, the Cardinals are still effective, leading the NFL with five interceptions on blitzes. They’re one of three teams in the league with a negative touchdown-to-interception differential when blitzing.

    The blitz has become part of Arizona’s defensive fabric. It’s come to define this team, which has battled injuries all season yet has still been able to blitz consistently.

    “Just everybody doing their job,” rookie defensive end Kareem Martin said. “That’s the only way the blitz is going to work. Every guy, however many, five-man, six-man blitz, however many guys are in it, as long as every guy is doing their job, that’s the only way it’s going to work.

    “As soon as one guy hops out of his gaps and cuts another guy off, it actually becomes the offense’s advantage because they kinda muddy everything up and gives the quarterback a little more time. But when we get to that quarterback and our blitzes are on point, he’s getting rid of that thing fast or we have a lot of pressure on him. That’s the biggest thing.”

    With how often the Cards blitz, masking them has become an important part of their success. Opposing quarterbacks struggle slightly against the blitz, completing 60.3 percent of the passes against the Cardinals’ blitz compared to 63.8 percent without facing a blitz. Even though Arizona has the second-fewest sacks in the NFL with seven, four of them have come when they’ve blitzed.

    “It kinda confuses,” Jefferson said. “We have so many different blitzes, so I think a lot of guys think we’re doing one thing when were actually doing another.”

    But, linebacker Kevin Minter said, every game features different blitzes, which has forced teams to spend more time preparing for the Cardinals’ blitz than they would against most other teams.

    “Their focus is on us blitzing,” Jefferson said. “That’s kinda their game plan. They know we’re going to blitz and it makes it hard on them because they’re trying to think about where we’re going to come from.

    “A lot of times we come up the middle and the outside so it’s hard for them to realize where we’re coming from.”

    And sometimes the Cardinals don’t hide it. They’re just coming.

    On the Eagles’ final drive last weekend, when they needed to score a touchdown to win, Bowles called for blitzes on six of Nick Foles’ seven dropbacks. He ended up completing just 1 of 6 passes facing a blitz. Against Philadelphia and San Diego, Arizona blitzed on the final play of the game.

    Arizona is allowing the second-lowest QBR in the fourth quarter (21.8) and all five of its interceptions while blitzing have come in the fourth quarter. That’s a large part of why the Cardinals’ plus-9 turnover margin is the second-highest in the NFL.

    “It keeps you honest,” Minter said. “You never really know what we’re in. You don’t know who’s coming.”

    #11367
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    greasedog

    Like any D, Arizona wants to stop the run. But, they seem to crowd the box more often than most. They don’t JUST do it to stop the run but they come on passing downs too.

    vinny1717

    They blitz, blitz and blitz more. Especially in crunch time, late in the game instead of going into prevent, 3 man rush scenarios, they send the house time and time again. QB’s might not be getting sacked but they have very little time to throw the ball

    #11380
    GreatRamNTheSky
    Participant

    Run the ball effectively with the occasional strategic pass play here and there. Ball control and no turnovers or stupid penalties is the key.

    I give Davis more credit than most of you Bradford Desciples. I think the kid will have huge game on Sunday.
    Question will be if the Rams get a good lead can the defense hold it.

    Grits

    #11382
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    I give Davis more credit than most of you Bradford Desciples.

    Well, truth is, not everyone who is skeptical of Davis right now was convinced Bradford was the guy. And, not everyone who liked Bradford is skeptical of Davis. So I don’t think it’s that simple.

    You’re a big Davis advocate–cool. Bang that drum. I like it when there are many different views.

    From what I see, Davis falls off some games, and then is more steady in others. With any luck, he closes the gap on that and becomes more consistent. Why would I want that, since I personally am still not sure about Davis? Because if that happens, the Rams win more. Which to me is the one and only bottom line.

    #11395
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    yeah. i don’t think it’s an either or thing. just want to see the rams find a qb. i was on the bradford wagon but now i do not think he’s the answer anymore while i’m still undecided on davis.

    #11398
    GreatRamNTheSky
    Participant

    Austin Davis will have a near 400 yard passing day on Sunday and throw for 4 scores. Rams will win easily.

    Grits

    #11400
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    that would be awesome. i hope he seizes the starting job over the second half of the season. and i hope those td passes are going to tavon and stedman!

    #11430
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Well it’s not just Davis though.

    How about that new OL? Robinson Saffold Wells Joseph Barksdale.

    How good will it turn out to be this year?

    How about that suddenly somewhat more consistent and a bit less mistake-prone defense? Is it “emerging”?

    #11432
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Well, the Cards remind me of the old Patriots.
    Teams lose and cant figure out how it happened.

    I’d guess the Rams will keep it close
    and lose in the fourth quarter as Palmer
    drives the length of the field against
    the Rams D.

    w
    v

    #11435
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Well, the Cards remind me of the old Patriots.
    Teams lose and cant figure out how it happened.

    I’d guess the Rams will keep it close
    and lose in the fourth quarter as Palmer
    drives the length of the field against
    the Rams D.

    w
    v

    Boy are YOU fickle. Just a couple of weeks ago, you were a Seattle fan…now it’s Arizona? g

    I say that as usual, as with all their prior games, the Rams win again. Now that may not be as fashionable to say, but, it’s more consistent.

    ..

    #11436
    Avatar photoEternal Ramnation
    Participant

    I predict TA scores on a punt return and some great plays from the Rams special teams. On the passing game the Rams should go with the bigger guys Cook Britt Kendricks. The Cards secondary is very good and the only reason they are able to blitz so much.The Cards OL sucks I predict the wide awake giant (DL) leaves a cleat print on Palmers butt.

    #11438
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    I predict TA scores on a punt return and some great plays from the Rams special teams. On the passing game the Rams should go with the bigger guys Cook Britt Kendricks. The Cards secondary is very good and the only reason they are able to blitz so much.The Cards OL sucks I predict the wide awake giant (DL) leaves a cleat print on Palmers butt.

    Well, i dunno. I dont foresee Palmer holding the ball
    very long. I think the Cards will just
    dink and dunk and wait for the Rams
    to self-destruct.

    Sure would be inter-esting though,
    if the Rams were in last place,
    but beat the Seahawks, 49ers and Cards
    all in a four game stretch.

    w
    v

    • This reply was modified 10 years ago by Avatar photowv.
    #11451
    Avatar photonittany ram
    Moderator

    Looking at the Rams, there is nothing about them that suggests they should win this game, and looking at the Cardinals, there is nothing to suggest they should lose. The Rams played well last week, but they often follow up good games with complete disasters. See KC this season. Just when you think they’ve turned the corner, they demonstrate that they don’t even know where the corner is. They never seem to build on past successes. They don’t seem to learn anything. It’s hit or miss (usually miss) every week.

    The Cardinals, on the other hand, seem to be very consistent. They play well each and every week. Even in their one loss they didn’t play badly. They were eventually just overwhelmed in the rarefied air of Denver. This week they’ll be home playing their methodical, consistent and mistake free brand of football against a team that is consistent only in its lack of consistency.

    All that said, I think the Rams will lose but it’s gonna be a close game. They’ll give the Cards all they can handle. I think the light just might be coming on for the defense. The offense is hampered a bit without Quick and Long and I think defenses may have figured out Davis but overall the team will play well. I just have a feeling they are finally starting to learn how to win in this league. They are probably just a little too undermanned to pull one out this week.

    #11453
    PA Ram
    Participant

    Winnbrad wrote:
    I have no idea. The Rams, seemingly, are 10 different teams rolled into one.
    If these Rams were a movie, they’d be “Sybil”.
    So I don’t know what the hell is gonna happen anymore.

    I would think Carson Palmer is going to try to
    dink and dunk all the way down the field.
    He’s not gonna hold the ball and let Quinn
    and Donald kill him.

    So, somehow, someway, Greg Williams has to
    find a way to stop the short passing game
    to Fitzgerald and company.

    Rams are seven point underdogs again.

    http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_odds.shtml

    Saints favored by 4.5 over the 49ers.

    w
    v

    That’s what I see.

    Quick passes from Palmer.

    Mix in the occasional run and move the chains.

    Davis will struggle under the Arizona blitz unless he gets a strong running game from Mason and he can pick up some things and do a better job of moving away from pressure and checking down.

    If the Rams do win it will be another nailbiter and they will have to play mistake free football.

    Cards: 23

    Rams: 17

    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away. " Philip K. Dick

    #11469
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    I will predict that the Rams lose in a blowout.

    Hey, it worked last week.

    #11484
    Winnbrad
    Participant

    I will predict that the Rams lose in a blowout.

    Hey, it worked last week.

    Yeah. I’m with Zooey. Rams lose 60 – 2.

    Whatever works.

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