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  • in reply to: Miklasz: Shocking loss could rip Seahawks apart #18068
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    Yeah, i heard M.Lynch isnt even
    speaking to anyone anymore.

    Well he stopped talking to the press. That right there alone all by itself is a bad sign.

    Carroll is finished. He’ll be lucky if he can get a job running the concessions stand at high school games.

    Avatar photozn
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    One of the great things about these vids is listening to Steve Savard. Savard to me is the voice of the Rams, and a great one.

    Typical of him:

    SAVARD: setting up ordinary stuff, this is going as you’d expect, they’re doing this thing and WAIT THERE’S THIS AND IT’S DOING THAT AND IT’S UN BEE LIEV ABLE.

    I love the way he does that. All announcers do, but, he has a knack.

    in reply to: Wagoner: Rams have options to create cap space #18062
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    Are the Rams willing to invest more time and money in Sam at this point?

    Like Ag says, this is do-able. Extension, incentives based on playing time, roster bonuses etc. The kind of deal where he gets paid if he play, but if he can’t, the team is not out big bucks.

    in reply to: who the free agents will be #18061
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    Now I don’t know how many will be re-signed…but there are some good to decent centers on this list.

    Rodney Hudson
    Stefen Wisniewski
    Brian De La Puente
    Will Montgomery
    Jonathan Goodwin
    Dan Connolly
    Samson Satele

    in reply to: who the free agents will be #18047
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    Not just the injuries, but he allowed more sacks than any guard in the league this year. <can’t seem to find that, but I’ve read it several times>

    Well he allowed 8. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/playerstats.asp?id=23992&team=25

    PFF says 7 and they also say (like you said) that that was the worst among NFL guards last season.

    Avatar photozn
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    Reminds me of an old college teacher of mine. Richard “Red” Watson. By the time these photos were taken he was Richard “Gray” Watson.

    n

    n

    At the bottom of the Pierre-Saint Martin, once the deepest cave in the world. (Photo by F.-M. Callot)

    Avatar photozn
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    I sincerely hope the man never goes far without a tiny little cigar.

    What happened to his hand.

    in reply to: Miklasz: Shocking loss could rip Seahawks apart #18002
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    I dunno. That all sounds a little over-apocalyptic to me.

    in reply to: I need to know your birthdays #18000
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    I need more.

    I am on a “gather the birthdays” quest.

    Guess what. I have a fever. And the only prescription is more birthdays.

    Avatar photozn
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    from Wagoner.

    I just kept the bit that does a little more than tell us stuff we already know.

    from Rams’ Frank Cignetti to be OC

    By Nick Wagoner | ESPN.com

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12286051/st-louis-rams-promote-quarterbacks-coach-frank-cignetti-offensive-coordinator?ex_cid=espnapi_public/print?id=12286051

    Fisher had been thought to be deciding between Cignetti and tight ends coach Rob Boras, but ultimately decided to give Cignetti the coordinator title. Boras will also get a promotion to a job that is expected to include the title of assistant head coach/offense.

    Boras doesn’t have the same extensive resume guiding offenses, which could have ultimately tipped the scales to Cignetti. Boras was a coordinator for just three years at UNLV from 2001 to ’03. He’s coached tight ends in the NFL for 11 seasons, with stops in Jacksonville and Chicago, before coming to St. Louis.

    The Rams are the last team to fill their offensive coordinator vacancy after Brian Schottenheimer departed for the same job at the University of Georgia on Jan. 7.

    in reply to: Seattle and the famous ill-fated call… #17992
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    m

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    In a close call between tight ends coach Rob Boras and quarterbacks coach Frank Cignetti, coach Jeff Fisher has decided upon Cignetti as his new OC, while Boras will be promoted to assistant head coach/offense

    Interesting. And, impossible to say what it means yet.

    So the Rams will run the same “system”, whatever that means, as last year?

    Appears that way.

    Now all we need is them to do so well on offense, both are offered head coaching jobs.

    Avatar photozn
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    j

    Interesting. From 2000-2001, Cig worked under Haslett in New Orleans.

    More:

    “Cignetti was most successful serving as the offensive coordinator at Fresno State for four years from 2002 until 2006. In 2004, Fresno State’s offense ranked fifth nationally and seventh in 2005. In 2004 Fresno State became the sixth team in NCAA history to score over 50 points in four consecutive games. The 2004 team also led theWestern Athletic Conference in average yards per carry and amassed 65 touchdowns.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Cignetti,_Jr.

    in reply to: I need to know your birthdays #17962
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    Need more birthdays.

    Cause. Cake.

    in reply to: Non Ram Related but funny. #17960
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    It was a video from facebook of a cardinal fan coming up behind this news lady and standing behind her with the back to the camera and on his Jersey where the name goes it says F’ck Seattle. Apparently Facebook will not allow me or this site will not allow me to share the video link from FB here.

    Yeah looks like it. Oh well.

    in reply to: Non Ram Related but funny. #17958
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    I can’t figure out what that is, Grits, so I’m sure if I got the right thing to come up. Is it a vid? A gif? A pic?

    in reply to: Seattle and the famous ill-fated call… #17952
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    Seahawks fan reaction thoughout game.

    Seattle fans reaction of the game as it plays out……..it is 10 min long, but covers the highs and lows of the game….. ff to the last 2 minutes……. listen to what the fans are chanting right before the final Seahawks offensive play…..

    heartbreaker….thankfully no one recorded me after SB 36………..we Ram fans somewhat understand the pain….

    in reply to: I need to know your birthdays #17949
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    October 2nd. Kelly Ripa, Sting and I send each other cards and flowers.

    zn, i don’t know when your birthday is…

    Feb 20th.

    You know what they say…beware the Ides of February.

    Avatar photozn
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    Most everyone I know, Republicans, Democrats, Independents, agree that it’s a true story about a single soldier’s torment.

    Yeah a lot of people take entertainment at face value. For example, they assume it’s a true story, when it’s not. The truth is not that he was fighting al qaida or that the invasion was linked to 9/11…that was the lie that sold the war.

    What if you put his torment up against the fact that the war had no justification. Looks different doesn;t it. Which is probably why they didn’t tell THAT story…..

    in reply to: Rams currently scheduled to pick 10th in NFL draft #17946
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    My prediction is we won’t be picking 10th. In other words, I believe we will be trading down.

    That could be quite likely.

    How do the O-linemen look in the bottom half of the 1st round.

    in reply to: Is this the year of the qb? Is Wilson a top 4 qb? #17945
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    The question comes up again.

    He was great at the end, in the clutch, against GB.

    But he wasn’t the difference against N.E.

    I think for sure he’s a top 10 qb, but top 4?

    in reply to: Miklasz: Wilson contract may shake NFC West #17943
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    15 million means they cant
    add two New excellent players

    But again, though. Look at their roster. Where are the expensive free agents. They don’t use them.

    in reply to: Plays that shaped Rams' season: No. 4 #17939
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    Well, as i’ve said before,
    the 2014 Rams were the “weirdest”
    Ram team, I’ve seen in my 40+ years
    of watching’em.

    Yes that was one strange season.

    in reply to: Miklasz: Wilson contract may shake NFC West #17937
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    I don’t really understand how you can think there’s no contract penalty
    when he’s been playing for less than a million and now he’ll be playing
    for fifteen million. I mean, thats a fourteen million dollar
    penalty they way i look at it. Thats fourteen million dollars
    they would have been able to spend on other players and now they cant.
    Maybe this is just semantics, i dunno.

    w
    v

    Because they have the cap space in 2015 and 2016 to handle it, and only a couple of major guys (Okung, Mebane) coming up in 2016 but that’s it.

    It may be more money than before for Wilson, but they planned around it.

    The point is they’re not going to lose anyone.

    Yes it’s also true they can’t add anyone in terms of FAs, but…go through their roster and name their FAs.

    The next 2 years also means trades and/or draft picks, and they’re good at both, and both are cheap.

    in reply to: I hope this is Seattles Super Bowl 36 #17936
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    See the Wilson contract thread.

    Their situation is not as dire with the Wilson contract and the cap as we would like.

    Or at least I can make a case for that.

    http://theramshuddle.com/topic/i-hope-this-is-seattles-super-bowl-36/#post-17936

    in reply to: Miklasz: Wilson contract may shake NFC West #17931
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    b

    Agent’s Take: What Russell Wilson’s blockbuster deal will look like
    By Joel Corry | Former Sports Agent

    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25005783/agents-take-what-russell-wilsons-blockbuster-deal-will-look-like

    The Seattle Seahawks are prepared to make Russell Wilson the NFL’s highest paid player during the offseason, according to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport, even if he isn’t the same caliber quarterback as Tom Brady, a healthy Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers.

    Wilson was the NFL’s biggest bargain in 2014 with a salary of $662,434. After the Super Bowl, Wilson will enter the final year of a four-year, $2,996,774 rookie contract he received in 2012 as a third-round pick.

    Joe Flacco forced the Baltimore Ravens to briefly make him the NFL’s highest paid player with a six-year, $120.6 million contract, including $51 million in guarantees, after capping off a stellar postseason in a contract year by being named Super Bowl XLVII MVP. Nobody was considering Flacco as an elite quarterback. Eli Manning was arguably a top 10 quarterback when the New York Giants made him the highest player in 2009 with a six-year, $97.5 million contract extension.

    Wilson has just as many Super Bowl victories with better statistics and more accolades than Flacco and Manning had when they got their big deals. Wilson is the game’s best dual quarterback. Although Wilson doesn’t have the same type of offensive responsibility as elite quarterbacks and has the luxury of playing with NFL’s best defense, he is the first starting quarterback to ever make it to two Super Bowls in his first three NFL seasons.

    Wilson’s most lucrative contract will likely come from letting Andrew Luck set a new NFL salary standard. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, a contract extension making Luck the NFL’s highest paid player is on the horizon. Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay and Luck have separately downplayed the notion of an extension since Schefter first broke the story. If the report is true, Luck could become the NFL’s first $25 million per year player with his new deal.

    Seattle’s contract preferences and conventions

    Seahawks contracts typically are structured where the guaranteed money consists of base salary guarantees and a signing bonus. Base salary guarantees after the first contract year are for injury only initially at signing in most instances but become fully guaranteed usually five days after the start of the waiver period in each specific year. The waiver period begins the day after the Super Bowl so the guarantee date this year is Feb. 7.

    The second contract year was fully guaranteed at signing in some deals before 2013. Marshawn Lynch’s $7 million 2013 base salary was fully guaranteed when he signed his deal in 2012. Per game roster bonuses are starting to become more prevalent in Seattle’s contracts. Michael Bennett has $1 million and $1.5 million of per game roster bonuses in the 2016 and 2017 of the four year contract he signed in the offseason.

    One dynamic that could have an impact on the structure of Wilson’s contract is his decision to fire Bus Cook as his agent, who negotiated Jay Cutler’s player friendly deal. Wilson has hired his baseball agent, Mark Rodgers, who doesn’t have any other NFL clients. The football agent community gets nervous anytime someone perceived as inexperienced is negotiating a lucrative contract, especially with a quarterback, because the likelihood of the player signing a team-friendly deal that could impact future negotiations in the marketplace seems greater.

    The concern may be unwarranted with Rodgers. He negotiated an eight-year, $121 million deal for Mike Hampton in 2000 with the Colorado Rockies, which was the richest contract in baseball history at the time. Rodgers being used to fully guaranteed contracts with baseball could work to Wilson’s advantage instead. It could be necessary for the Seahawks to make structural concessions with Wilson, like the Green Bay Packers have with Aaron Rodgers. He is the only player on the Packers with a veteran deal that has guarantees after the first contract year.

    Thomas and Sherman’s contracts should be the team’s most relevant deals to Wilson’s negotiations. Those are Seattle’s only contracts that set the marketplace at a position. Thomas’ $10 million average per year is 14.29 percent greater than the $8.75 million average of Jairus Byrd’s deal with the New Orleans Saints. Byrd preceded Thomas as the NFL’s highest paid safety.

    Sherman’s contract, which averages $14 million per year, is 16.67 percent higher than the one year, $12 million deal Darrelle Revis signed last March with the New England Patriots to become the NFL’s highest paid cornerback. Technically, Revis signed a two-year, $32 million contract but it was designed to be a one year deal. Thomas and Sherman’s deals combined are 15.66 percent greater than the previous salary benchmarks at their respective positions. When this percentage difference is applied to Rodgers’ deal, it yields approximately a $25.5 million average per year for Wilson.

    Thomas received $25.725 million in guarantees. His signing bonus was $ 9.5million so 36.93 percent of his guarantees are in that form. Thomas’ signing bonus was layered on top of the 2014 salary he was scheduled to make prior to his new deal.

    Precisely $11 million of Sherman’s $40 million in guarantees was a signing bonus. Just over 27 percent of his guarantees are signing bonus. Sherman’s 2014 base salary remained the same as it was before the extension.

    The percentage of Wilson’s guarantees as signing bonus should fall somewhere between Thomas and Sherman’s based on how these deals are structured.

    Result

    Objectively, the data suggests that a contract averaging in the $24 million per year neighborhood with $65 million in guarantees and slightly over $73 million in the first three new years is appropriate for Wilson. Seattle has preferred four-year deals or extensions in recent years. Cliff Avril, Bennett, Kam Chancellor, Lynch, Sherman, Thomas, Max Unger and K.J. Wright signed for this length of time. A five- or six-year extension may be in order for Wilson to mirror the length of most lucrative quarterback deals.

    Thomas and Sherman’s structure suggests that Wilson should receive a $20 million to $25 million signing bonus. Wilson earned the fourth year “proven performance” escalator for third- through seventh-round picks under the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement’s rookie wage scale. His 2015 salary increases to the lowest restricted free agent tender since he hit the 35 percent offensive playtime mark in two of his first three seasons. If the 2015 salary cap is $142 million, the lowest restricted free agent tender will be $1.528 million. Wilson’s 2015 base salary will likely equal whatever the final number is because that would be consistent with their deals.

    The effect on Seattle’s salary cap

    Schneider acknowledged Jan. 27 at Super Bowl media day that a new Wilson pact would present roster challenges the team hasn’t faced before with Wilson under his rookie contract. Wilson’s 2015 cap number shouldn’t be more than $6.75 million with the new deal. The bigger impact will begin taking place in 2016 when Wilson starts having large cap numbers.

    The deal won’t prevent the Seahawks from keeping Lynch in 2015 at his $8.5 million cap number. That’s because no more than $5 million of the team’s projected $18.618 million in cap space once the top 51 players are accounted for by including tenders for restricted free agents and exclusive rights players with expiring contracts should be used with Wilson. There should still be enough cap room to extend linebacker Bobby Wagner’s contract while retaining Lynch. Wagner’s deal shouldn’t take up more than $2.5 million of Seattle’s existing 2015 cap room based on how the team structures contracts.

    Defensive tackle Brandon Mebane and tight end Zach Miller, who are on injured reserve, could be cap casualties. The Seahawks would gain $5.5 million cap space by releasing Mebane. $2,890,625 of cap room would be freed up by parting ways with Miller.

    It may become more challenging to re-sign left tackle Russell Okung with Wilson’s new deal. 2015 is also his contract year. Although he hasn’t consistently played at a high level since his 2012 Pro Bowl season, he probably won’t be interested in a new contract that’s less the six-year, $48.5 million deal (with $29.3 million guaranteed and worth a maximum of $58 million) he signed in 2010 as an unproven commodity when he was the sixth overall pick in the Draft.

    in reply to: I hope this is Seattles Super Bowl 36 #17930
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    It could be though.

    If it eats at them.

    Rams still had the talent in 2002, even with Kurt hurting. But the team kind of couldn’t get over the loss, I think.

    in reply to: Blast from The Past, 1950 LA Rams #17929
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    Thanks Grits. Keep em coming.

    in reply to: Seattle and the famous ill-fated call… #17926
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    There Was a 3.1% Chance of an Interception

    http://mmqb.si.com/2015/02/04/russell-wilson-super-bowl-49-interception-statistical-analysis/

    Super Bowl XLIX ended with one of the most incredible plays in NFL history: Malcolm Butler jumping Russell Wilson’s quick slant at the 1-yard line. After the interception, Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell were immediately crucified for the decision to pass instead of run the ball with beast of a running back Marshawn Lynch. Emmitt Smith, Peter King and many others called it some variation of “the worst play call in the history of football.” But was it really? We analyzed the numbers to find out.
    The Situation

    A refresher: The Seahawks were down four with 26 seconds remaining. Seattle, the most efficient rushing team in the NFL since 2000, faced a second-and-goal. They had one timeout remaining and New England, with three defensive backs on the field, lined up in man-to-man coverage against Seattle’s three-receiver set.
    The Logic

    In the NFL, with man-to-man coverage, the advantage goes to the offense. After burning two timeouts earlier in the drive, and with only 26 seconds remaining, it was not really feasible for the Seahawks to run the ball three straight plays. If they ran the ball on second down and failed, they would need to call their final timeout. Without a timeout, if they ran and were stopped on third down, it is unlikely they would have time to lineup for a fourth-down attempt. There are massive pileups at the goal line and it takes a while to get unpiled and set up. Obviously, three plays to score the go-ahead touchdown are better than two.

    In Defense of Darrell Bevell

    They had the right look for the slant to work, the interception that clinched Super Bowl 49 was more a function of Seattle’s limited personnel.
    So, it appears the Seahawks would need to throw the ball on either second or third down to ensure three attempts. By throwing on second down and conserving their timeout, the Patriots would still have to play for either the pass or the run on third down. If they ran on second down, the Seahawks would almost surely pass on third down—which simplifies things for Bill Belichick’s defense.

    The Execution

    Every time I watch the play, I’m more and more convinced it was actually the execution that could have been better, rather than the play call. Ricardo Lockette runs a quick slant behind Jermaine Kearse, who tries (and fails) to set a pick for him. Lockette is certainly open, but Butler makes a tremendous break on the ball, somehow coming up with the interception.

    If Wilson throws that ball into Lockette’s chest, like a quarterback is supposed to do on that throw, that’s a touchdown (or, worst case, an incompletion). If Lockette goes in stronger and anticipates the contact—which it appeared he did not—he’s in position for a touchdown as well (or, worst case, an incompletion).

    It’s up to the quarterback and the receiver to make sure the defender has to go through the back of the receiver in order to make a play on the slant. While this is not the exact same situation (since they are at the 11-yard line, not the goal line), look where Tom Brady puts this ball on the slant to Brandon LaFell for a touchdown earlier in the game. Also, look at how LaFell has positioned himself between the ball and the corner.
    The Stats

    Enough qualitative analysis—what do the numbers say? If you recall earlier this year, we wrote about goal-to-go scenarios after the Eagles chose to pass the ball instead of run it at the goal line against the 49ers. Since 2000, teams on the 1-yard line have run the ball 74.0% of the time and were successful 53.9% of the time. Teams passing succeeded 48.3% of the time.

    This year, both numbers were significantly higher. Teams ran in 129 touchdowns on 226 attempts (57.1%) and threw 66 touchdowns on 115 attempts (57.4%). But keep in mind, one year of data is still a pretty small sample size. 2013’s touchdown rate was just 49.5%, so there can be dramatic shifts from year to year.

    Plenty of Blame to Go Around

    A coach’s call has been getting all of the attention, but three Seahawks players deserve their share of wrath for the Super Bowl-losing interception. Here’s what Jermaine Kearse, Ricardo Lockette and Russell Wilson did wrong.
    Many are citing the fact that this was the first interception on the goal line all year. Historically, though, interceptions occur on 3.1% of passing plays from the 1-yard line. The biggest difference between rushing and passing on the goal line is the potential for bad outcomes. Large rushing losses are not common on dive plays, only fumbles. With a pass play, there are interceptions, sacks, and fumbles. Since 2000, sacks occurred on 4.4% of pass plays from the 1. Fumbles (both lost and recovered by the offense) occurred on 3.1% of rushing plays and 1.0% of pass plays (about half of those resulted in turnovers).

    Our internal efficiency metric at numberFire.com, Net Expected Points (NEP) tells us that rushing plays at the 1 average +0.15 NEP per attempt, while pass plays lose -0.05 per drop back. That’s a one-point difference for every five plays.

    These league-wide baselines are a great starting point, but unfortunately, they do not take into account the specific teams playing, score differential, time remaining, or personnel groupings.

    In 2014, the Patriots faced seven plays at the goal line (six rush, one pass). They surrendered six touchdowns (five on rushes, one through the air). The Seahawks ran nine plays from the goal line, running the ball seven times (scoring just three times, 42.9%) and throwing twice (scoring once). These sample sizes are clearly far too small to draw any conclusions.

    Last, let’s look at the specific situation: down by four to eight points (one possession but more than a field goal) with under one minute remaining. Since 2000, there are 73 such situations with a success rate of just 42.5%—dramatically lower than the rest of the game. Passes converted 48.5% of the time and rushes a measly 37.5% on 40 attempts. This is, of course, another small sample size issue and there is a slight sample bias in that the trailing team will typically be the less-efficient team. If we look at all trailing teams, that expands the sample to 153 plays: 41.1% pass success, 43.0% run success. It’s also worth noting that the pass-to-run ratio is much closer to 50-50 in these end-of-game situations.

    In short-yardage situations, running the ball is generally the better option. But, teams cannot run the ball every time, as there is a huge element of game theory in play calling. Offenses try to capitalize and increase their odds with specific matchups (like man-to-man coverage).

    There does appear to be a decline in conversion rates in these high-stress situations, when quick but critical judgments need to be made. We would need more data, though, to truly verify this theory.

    The Seahawks probably should have run the ball—although that’s much easier to say with hindsight on our side. Conversion rates are higher and thus, the Seahawks chances of winning would be higher, we estimate by about 5.6%. But, was the decision to throw the ball the worst play call in history? Not even close.

    If the Seahawks score there, no one thinks twice about the decision. Instead, Belichick would be ridiculed for the blatant mistake of not taking his timeouts once the Seahawks were in a goal-to-go scenario. But the interception happened, so it’s Carroll taking the heat.

    in reply to: Seattle and the famous ill-fated call… #17922
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    Bill Belichick: Criticism of Seahawks play-call “totally out of line”

    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/04/bill-belichick-criticism-of-seahawks-play-call-totally-out-of-line/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

    While most of the known world has weighed in on Seattle’s late-game play-calling, and the majority of that weight has fallen against them, there is one person objecting.

    Patriots coach Bill Belichick himself said the criticism of the second-and-1 slant pass which was intercepted to seal the win for his team was “totally out of line.”

    “There has been a lot of criticism that I don’t think is anywhere close to being deserved or founded,” Belichick said on WEEI, via Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com. “That football team is very good, very well-coached, and Pete does a great job.

    “Malcolm [Butler] and Brandon [Browner], on that particular play, just made a great play. I think the criticism they’ve gotten for the game is totally out of line and by a lot of people who I don’t think are anywhere near even qualified to be commenting on it.”

    Belichick was also gracious to the Seahawks, knowing himself what it’s like to come so close and lose.

    “I wouldn’t be able to say enough about Seattle. They’re a great football team, well coached. They deserve so much credit for what they’ve done, and how well they’ve done it,” he said. “I know they are disappointed as we’ve been in that spot a couple times ourselves. So the high that we feel is probably not as high as the low that they feel. But that’s a really good football team.”

    Of course, Belichick also benefited from the decision by offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and the Seahawks, so he’s not going to complain, either.

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