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What I found is that Fisher will have several consecutive losing/at best 8-8 seasons and then consecutive winning seasons.
Maybe it just takes him 4 years.
Should it? Maybe not.
If the result of this is several consecutive winning seasons?
I’ll take it.
Is that much of an argument? No. Not really. But I think we’re just different flavors when it comes to things like this, so, I am just getting in an ad for my flavor, is all.
Well, we have seen this differently most of the year. But, I have always wondered if the difference is in what we see or in the conclusions we draw.
Here, you are projecting a possible run of winning seasons in the 4th year. Would I be OK with that? Of course, I am always OK with the Rams doing well.
But, I see 2 big problems with your take.
1) Looking at the career as a whole, we can see patterns, but I see no compelling reason to assume that Year 4 would be any better than Year 3. Year 3 has shown us serious regression on defense, not progress. Past performance yields no clear indication of future achievement.
2) Suppose we do break through next year. That would not redeem THIS YEAR, which is clearly on track for failure to progress. The COST of this lousy start to the season is precisely … this season.
The only way one could argue that Year 4 success redeems Year 3 failure is if opportunities in Year 3 are not squandered and substantial weaknesses are improved on.
Consider ’98 v ’99. The offense in ’98 was not ready at all to make a big step. It had to be restocked with talent. ’99 happened because of major improvements in the OL, RB, QB, and OC.
What’s the case this year? Do we have the sort of fundamental weaknesses that we had in ’98? In my view, no. No way.
The offense IS building on last year to a remarkable degree, even with a lesser QB. We SHOULD BE better this year than last.
The problem is a defense that has regressed alarmingly. The talent is as good if not better than last year. But the unit is collapsing like a rotted out weather balloon.
Now, allowing your best team asset to regress while the other unit improves simply does not fit a narrative of improvement leading to a breakthrough a year later than one hoped. That is not what is happening.
This is a lost year because Fisher’s staff failed to prepare the team for the start of the season and allowed its best asset to collapse into ill discipline and ineptitude. The team is failing right now and has allowed itself to slide into a close to impossible situation. All with the best talent the team has had in decades.
It simply does not, in my view, fit your narrative. Maybe Fisher breaks through next year. Maybe he doesn’t.
But there is no earthly reason why we are not 4-2 right now, if not better. And whether or not we turn it around next year, we still had to live through another lost year of embarrassing failure. The 2014 season will forever remain on the record books, and in my view, it is a profligate waste of a golden opportunity.
In my view, this year’s failure is, in itself, unnecessary.
That’s on Fisher.
By virtue of the absurd ...
I dont know how long I’m willing to give him,
but I’m willing to give him more than one-forth of year three
…
I mean you just said in another thread, it feels like 98.
Well doesnt that mean Fisher has them ‘close’. I think they are.
Lets see how it goes next Sunday. …w
vBut, see, despite what happened in ’99, ’98 WAS A FAILURE! I was ready to lynch Vermeil. That team had too much talent to play that abjectly. As they PROVED that the next year.
And consider the conditions that made ’99 possible. Vermeil CHANGED THINGS. Dramatically. He changed training camp, practice routines. He brought in Martz and changed the way he personally coached. Those changes are testimony to Vermeil’s recognition that the whole approach in ’98 had failed. Out of the failure came change and success. But ONLY through recognition that the practices of ’98 bred failure.
Now you ask what if we beat SF Monday? I actually think that might happen. Maybe a 30% chance? I think we actually match up well against SF.
But your question seems to imply that, if it happens, that would disprove my judgment. That’s a misreading of what I am saying. Remember–as I keep stressing, I am describing the season TO DATE, up to the present. I am NOT predicting the future, more than to say we are now in a deep hole, we are a long way from competitive discipline, and the odds of getting back into the race are very, very long. But I am not rejecting the idea that it could happen.
What I am saying is that Fisher is currently FAILING. Present tense. To use the metaphor I mention in another post, a student who fails the tests of the 1st quarter of the semester is FAILING. S/he may or may not recover, but the current performance is FAILING and if it continues, passing the course will be very hard if not impossible.
And I would argue that, as was true of Vermeil, breaking out of the failing cycle will require that things change. What they are doing is not working. Long and Wells aren’t working. Joseph isn’t. Yadda yadda yadda. You know the drill.
And the fact that they show flashes is not enough. If a student does really well on 50% of the test but fails the rest, that’s still failing. The fact that the defense looked great for 25:00 against DAL doesn’t alter the fact that it laid down and died the rest of the way. Only losing teams looking to build competence can earn credit for simply competing on some plays.
What these guys ARE DOING RIGHT NOW is nowhere near good enough. It just isn’t. You cannot WIN GAMES playing this way, despite the positive flashes. I don’t know how anyone can dispute that fact, though I see fans and pundits try.
We’re in Year 3, man. And consider the defense. We have some young guys, but they’re not the reason for the unit’s failure. The front 7 is spinning its wheels, under performing. But the rookie isn’t the reason. It’s veterans who have been in the system (Williams didn’t really change much) and in the league. It’s guys whom Fisher has had for years and has allowed to regress. They are capable of a helluva lot better–right? And they are FAILING to play winning football.
The failure is everywhere right now. And it isn’t because we have no talent. The reverse–we are failing what we clearly CAN DO. We are losing to mediocre teams and embarrassing ourselves with ill-considered game plans and lousy execution. And we are not any longer a bad team under new management for which improvement is a victory. The test is simple–win or lose. And we are currently failing.
Look. The league makes it simple. You kick off 16 times. You win or you lose. To have a good year, you really need to prepare to play games that count in Week 1. Good teams do that. We have not done that yet … in 3 years. Fisher has had a full camp, 4 PS games, 4 regular season games, and a bye week. And he STILL fields teams unprepared to play games.
OK. I know I’m obsessing. And I’ll stop.
You know how much I care about you and the others on the board. But the excuses made for Fisher are driving me bonkers.
You know, Martz (with Vermeil) started 3 consecutive seasons 6 & 0. And he was frequently criticized for not preparing his team for the start of the season. He delivered 2 SB appearances and 1 win. And people hammered him relentlessly over performances a helluva lot better than what we are now doing. Fisher appears to have a Teflon reputation. The ordinary coach would be excoriated by fans and in the press by now. But he apparently can’t be judged yet because he needs more time.
I don’t get it.
By virtue of the absurd ...
