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http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/4/21/11473382/jared-goff-nfl-draft-2016-cal-air-raid
Air raid QBs have bombed in the NFL. Can Jared Goff be the 1st to truly succeed?
By Jason Kirk
@JasonKirkSBN on Apr 21, 2016, 8:45a 53
One of college football’s most entertaining offenses has represented itself poorly in the NFL. Is the “Bear Raid” QB the man to
“The air raid” most frequently describes the efficient, up-tempo, pass-heavy spread offense made famous by Mike Leach and further developed in various ways by Leach proteges-turned-head coaches like Cal’s Sonny Dykes, Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin, Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury and West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen, who’s evolved all the way into using a run-first spread.
Air raid teams pretty much always put up tons of points and passing yards, but have few banners to show for them, whether due to exposed defenses, poor running games, weaknesses in the trenches, or happenstance. However, parts of the offense have bled into all sorts of offenses, and vice versa, so even saying “the air raid” in 2016 opens up a host of arguments. Let’s stick to the Leach tree, more or less.
This is relevant to the 2016 NFL Draft because the apparent favorite to go No. 1 to the Rams, Jared Goff, played all three of his years at Cal for Dykes and OC Tony Franklin, both former Leach assistants.
(Here’s the big ole deep-dive, multi-part explainer on how it works, and here are quick notes on how Dykes’ teams do it.)
Three years ago, when WVU’s Geno Smith was a first-round prospect, I looked at the history of air raid QBs in the NFL.It was bad. We can now add the young careers of Smith and Johnny Manziel to the list, which makes things no brighter.
What’s gone wrong?
I dunno.
Maybe air raid QBs have been overrated due to their big stats? It’s typically an underdog offense, for teams that can’t just overpower or out-speed opponents, which means its quarterbacks are rarely considered top prospects in high school or until late in their college careers.
Some would argue its progression-based system makes things a little too easy for college QBs and prevents them from developing pro skills.
Cal definitely fits the stereotypical profile of an air raid team.The Golden Bears ranked in the top eight in pass attempts in all three of Goff’s starting seasons, and the only teams to rank ahead of Cal in all three years were Leach’s Washington State and Texas Tech (where the air raid has become a cultural identity). Goff put up a gaudy 4,719 passing yards in 2015 while slightly disappointing many Cal fans.
They’ve ranked no higher than No. 97 in rushing attempts, despite the Bear Raid being meant to have more of a run/pass balance than Leach’s offenses.
In 2015, Cal’s offense ranked No. 13 in S&P+, while its defense ranked No. 84. Cal went 14-23 in the Goff/Dykes era, improving annually but showing few signs of significantly exceeding 2015’s 8-5 record any time soon.
But how does Goff measure up against his air raid predecessors?It’s hard to account for opponent quality with raw stats, but his 2015 passer rating of 161.2 would’ve ranked No. 5 on this list of 66 seasons by air raid QBs, behind the best years of Keenum, Beck, Smith, and Kolb. You could easily argue he faced better competition in the Pac-12 than others did, but there are other Pac-12 and SEC quarterbacks on that list who aren’t far behind.
NFL folks often say completion percentage and games started are the most telling college QB stats. Goff ranked No. 22, No. 36 and No. 62 in completion percentage in his three years. Smith’s best season ranked No. 2, Manziel’s No. 3, and various other air raid QBs cracked a season’s top 10. Goff has started many games, though.
But the NFL isn’t supposed to draft based on college stats, and scouts are apparently much higher on Goff than they were on any of those previous guys. Here’s Dan Kadar, who’s certainly smarter at this than I am:
Goff was an elite high school recruit [2013’s No. 15 pro-style QB] who has followed up on his promise.
Anyone who has watched Cal and its porous offensive lines has witnessed a tough player in the pocket who knows how to handle pressure. There is no better signal caller in this year’s draft at reading and manipulating a defense and working progressions. Some of the stick throws Goff made, especially in his junior season, were pure NFL throws that connected in tight windows and zipped through coverage.
If you can overlook a slender frame and those nine-inch hands, you have a complete quarterback. The arm strength and athleticism may not be off the charts, but they’re more than good enough.
Joe Montana comparisons are pretty ridiculous — and mostly lazy due to geographical and size similarities — but projecting him as a Matt Ryan-type quarterback is appropriate.
History shows it’s really hard to translate crazy productivity in this offense into NFL success.
If Goff is the exception, well, that’s pretty cool. Maybe there will be more.
That’s a pretty impressive (or perhaps unimpressive graph)…
He should stay out of the sun.
Perhaps he lost his joli petit chapeau…
I think the very idea sounds bad, and smells bad.
This here just looks bad.
I don’t know why, but the words “What, me worry?”keep playing in my head when I see this guy’s picture.
However, I was born and raised in central Pennsylvania and what New Englanders don’t know about is pan haus, schnitz un kepp or fasnacht.
They don’t even know you’re supposed to eat pork and sauerkraut with mashed potatoes on New Year’s day?!
One standard that I try to maintain is to at least be able to pronounce what it is that I’m eating… 😉
Pan haus, schnitz un kepp or fasnacht, ok, I’ll admit that I needed to consult the Oracle of Google.
So it would appear that Pan Haus is basically boiling a hogs head, straining off the inedible parts, and then mixing with corn meal and then frying it. I did find this version online, from an individual named Zack, coincidentally from West Virginia. Had to chuckle as I thought to myself “I bet I know a guy from WV that doesn’t boil hogs heads…”
Jan 16, 2015
Pon Haus
by: Zack FlemingWhen we butchered our hogs in Eastern WV, we would always put the scraps, some of hide trimmings, and many organs in the cast iron pots under an open fire and cook until done. Nothing was wasted. This was then strained out and ground into pudding. The broth was then thickened with lots of corn meal and some flour, seasoned with salt and pepper and we added several “scoops” of the pudding meat, and cooked to reduce to an almost mush, then poured into loaf pans and cooled. Sliced and served fried as a breakfast meat usually with King syrup. The pudding was served on top of corn meal pancakes. Many local farmers still make pon haus to this day and at least 2 butcher shops in the Hagerstown, MD area sell to local stores.
Schnitz un kepp – Boiled ham with apples, in a dumpling? Ok, not bad. Forget the pronunciation qualification, I’d take a bite or 2.
Fasnacht – A German Donut? Automatically gets a free pass through the critics turnstile. Donuts are just generally good.
And as far as pork, sauerkraut and mashed potatoes? One of my favorite meals. Didn’t know there was a special day of consumption, but will keep it in mind.
New Years Day, you say. OK, perhaps a special meal celebrating next years NFC West title.
Peyton’s stats didnt look impressive.
Looks like Defense and a game-managing-QB
can still win.w
vThought of the day.
Manning: 17/32 (53.125%), 145 (4.53 YPA), 2 TDs, 0 Ints, 3 sacks
Well, the thought of the day got me to thinking. So, here’s what I think.
A good D and a game-managing QB can win, but I’m also thinking that there has to be a little more output from the O than what the Rams were putting up.
Somewhere I seem to recall reading that the Rams needed 20 points per game to win. That was their magic number.
And, that’s what Denver put up yesterday. They just let it get a little toooooo close.
True but this wasn’t a good example to cite as support for that idea. Denver got lucky. They didn’t win the game as much as they didn’t lose it.
Yeah, they did get lucky. They had absolutely had no business giving up 2, not one, but 2, 4th down conversions on that last drive. 4th and 10 & 4th and 6, I believe. Geeze, major pucker time there.
