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Billy_TParticipanthttps://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/trade-value-chart-2023?rd=1
This is the standard value chart. Apparently, there are others. Updates that try to incorporate aggregate production for each round/range too.
Just a guess. But I think the various mock simulators use different criteria for trades — not the standard — with some more permissive than others.
Anyway, interesting draft-takes here. Appreciate the responses.
Billy_TParticipantSomething to consider. Unless I’ve mixed up the picks, the Rams traded Jalen Ramsey, essentially, for Byron Young and Hunter Long.
Also, on strategy. I think it’s very smart to try to trade down within your board’s “clusters,” whenever possible. If you have takers, do it often — again, within your clusters. I wouldn’t do that if I’m thinking my team is one or two players away, at one or two positions, etc. I’d stick and draft “my guys,” with few exceptions. But few teams exist in that realm. The Rams certainly don’t. The trick is, of course, turning quantity into quality. If you can’t, it’s usually better just to stick and pick.
I’d also say that the Rams’ 14 picks shouldn’t be seen as the top end. Lotsa ifs here . . . but if you have the cap room to sign a large rookie class, there are huge advantages to grabbing a very large group all at once, most of them pretty obvious. First and foremost, perhaps, you control your own window of opportunity for at least four years, and you can supplement the youngins with key vets (and vet holdovers).
The above strategy is maximized if you have a First, especially an early one. There is a massive difference in pick value from Round One on down. For instance, the first pick is worth 3000 points. The Rams’ pick at #36 was worth 540. Once you get into the 5th round, the range has fallen to 37-18. The vast majority of the 7th round has just 1 point per pick.
In the real world, that trade chart isn’t always used, or used to the letter. But it is a rough guide.
Billy_TParticipantThanks for posting UDFA news. I think the Rams likely found their specialists, a backup corner or two, some backfield help, and a gadget guy who may get a few snaps a game. Wish the latter could have been Keaton Mitchell, though, signed by the Ravens after the Draft. He would have been a great addition to the McVay offense.
Just a side note on the use of those RAS scores. IMO, the total score isn’t all that useful, because of the impact of height and weight, especially, and some players not being tested on some of the metrics. To me, it makes more sense to use the individual tests listed instead.
That’s helpful info. Focus on the vert, broad, forty time, 10-yard split, 3-cone, shuttle, etc. Hand size is relevant for obvious reasons, depending on position. Wideouts, running backs, centers, QBs seem obvious candidates. Arm length matters for some positions, but not really others, etc. Wideouts, TEs, corners, safeties, edges, tackles, linebackers, etc. Who really cares about arm length when it comes to QBs, running backs, and so on? Seems to matter to coaches/staff in deciding whether a player should be a tackle or move to guard, but most are gonna be smart enough to go case by case there.
Anyway, the reason I bring this up is that I’ve noticed some of those RAS scores seem to be lower for some players who really did great in areas that matter most to their own positions. But they get dinged for the height/weight stuff, etc. I’ve also noticed that small differences there seem to matter a lot. Too much, in my view.
Just my two cents . . .
Billy_TParticipantBrugler has Allen as a 3rd-4th rounder. Should be an excellent Red Zone TE for the Rams. Highly skilled at contested catches, with a 38.5 vert.
Less high on McClendon (6th rounder), but others liked him more. Consensus was 5th rounder. Should improve their depth at guard and right tackle, at least.
Billy_TParticipantFrom Brugler’s scouting review. Had him as a 3rd-4th rounder:
COMBINE 6022 236 33 5/8 9 1/2 80 5/8 4.58 2.61 1.55 35 1/2 10’0” – – – (no shuttle, 3-cone, bench – right toe)
PRO DAY 6023 239 33 9 1/2 81 – – – – – – – – (no testing – right toe)STRENGTHS: Explosive first step, and his race to the corner can get tackles off balance … instinctive snap anticipation and rarely loses sight of the football … displays
the lower-body flexibility to bend and make sharp cuts in his pass rush … nimble, efficient looper … allows his length to work for him with a forceful long-arm move …
uses forward lean to access speed-to-power opportunities and free himself from blocks … outstanding pursuit from the backside … experienced peeling off and
defending zones … improved weight transfer as a tackler in 2022 boosted his finishing batting average … voted a senior captain … above-average backfield production
and his 11.0 sacks in 2021 was the most for an Appalachian State player since the school moved up to the FBSBilly_TParticipantJourdan said the Rams had interest in wideout Justin Shorter, an ironic name, given his 6’4″ height. He went sooner than many expected. I also liked Kyu Blu Kelly and Daniel Scott at corner and safety. Gone.
Dontayvion Wicks was another favorite at wideout. Gone. Antonio Johnson was considered a first or second round safety not that long ago. Also gone.
Billy_TParticipantthey need a backup qb. i just question whether he would have been available later.
He would have. And most scouts would argue he wasn’t the best available QB. They had much bigger needs to fill at that spot, and several talented players sitting there who won’t be there when the Rams draft again at #161.
no i agree with you. that’s why i disagree with the pick. i think the rams could have waited. i thought this was pretty funny.
<script async=”” src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>
Hopefully that’s sarcasm, from a Bengal fan?
;>)
Billy_TParticipantSome more of my favorites now off the board:
Darius Rush, Cam Mitchell, Abanikanda, Abdullah. The first two are likely upgrades at corner; Abanikanda likely upgrade the running back position; Abdullah likely upgrades the linebacker/edge position.
Oh, well.
Billy_TParticipantZN,
They don’t know other teams’s boards and they have no idea if he would be there at the bottom of the 5th.
I’d argue that focusing on just one player makes the drafter a “purist.” Being open to a wide range of players, positions, needs, and “scheme-versatility,” guards against that.
Zeroing in on just one guy can’t help but blind the drafter to the dozens of quite possibly better players, who may offer the potential for immediate upgrades.
Do you think the Rams see Stetson as a potential upgrade to Stafford? I’m betting no. Whenever possible, with each pick, that should be first and foremost on the minds of the FO. Does this player offer a good chance at an upgrade?
Of course, if a team is stacked with a ton of talent, they can move on much sooner to “depth.” But the Rams aren’t one of those teams right now. They have multiple holes at starter. They shouldn’t worry about depth until they upgrade their starters.
Triage. The Draft is kinda like a triage unit. Take care of the most immediate needs first, in descending order through each pick, each round.
Billy_TParticipantThe thing is when you take him. His potential “fit” is beside the point. Take him in the 4th and you lose out on players at positions of immediate need. As in, potential starters. Wait for known backups. Those guys will still be there after the potential starters are long gone.
i agree.
And just a side-note on critiquing these picks. Looking at comments on another board made me think about this again . . .
I fully realize that the Rams . . .
A: Have their own players’ board
B: Have inside knowledge we’ll never know
C: Understand their own schemes and fits and needs better than we fans.I get all of that. However, they’re human, and they make mistakes, and their track record in recent years isn’t exactly all that great, having cut a ton of their own draft picks, etc. etc. How many picks have even made it through their rookie contracts in recent years? Not many. And they tend not to re-sign most of the rest.
(Plus, schemes change. Coaches leave. Nothing is forever in the NFL)
In short, I think criticism is warranted at times, and no team’s FO is above it. IMO, the Rams’ FO all too often plays poor chess on Draft Day, and we see the results. In relative terms, not that many guys left from the Super Bowl team, which still kinda stuns me when I think about it . . .
Billy_TParticipantBennett has backup potential for a timing-based passing attack that includes concepts often seen in the Shanahan offense.
There’s your answer.
The thing is when you take him. His potential “fit” is beside the point. Take him in the 4th and you lose out on players at positions of immediate need. As in, potential starters.
Wait for known backups. Those guys will still be there after the potential starters are long gone.
Billy_TParticipantthey need a backup qb. i just question whether he would have been available later.
He would have. And most scouts would argue he wasn’t the best available QB.
They had much bigger needs to fill at that spot, and several talented players sitting there who won’t be there when the Rams draft again at #161.
Billy_TParticipantBrugler gives him a 6th round grade, and he’ll turn 26 this year.
So, I guess the Rams are just fine being awful in the secondary. One starting-caliber corner, in Durant; a starting-caliber safety in Fuller; and then, basically, a bunch of JAGs.
Still no #2 for Kupp, and Akers is still a question mark. Which Akers will show up? etc. etc.
I don’t think the Rams’ Draft room knows what it’s doing, and with their recent track record of cutting a lot of their picks, that’s borne out in the real world.
Billy_TParticipantStupid pick. Truly stupid. With all the holes they have on this team, and all the starters they still need to add?
They go for a backup QB, under six feet?
Billy_TParticipantGot to take Darius Rush. Second choice, Israel Abanikanda.
Billy_TParticipantI think his age lowers his eval a bit among scouts, even though as mentioned above, he likely hasn’t taken the punishment of his age peers. Far fewer snaps, etc. His height hurts him a bit, too.
If he were 23 and 6’4″, he’s probably top 10 among the edges, easily. Guessing 6 or 7 on Brugler’s list, instead of 17, with a 1st-2nd round grade, instead of 3rd-4th.
But, again, NFL team boards are waaay different from the boards we see from public draft gurus. Jourdan has been hinting about that difference lately, from her insider-access position, among other aspects of the Draft. Apparently, that access brings a lot of perks, but she can’t tell us about them — yet.
I like the pick, and Avila’s. Just wish Young really were younger, and could suddenly morph into 6’4″, 6’5″.
;>)
Billy_TParticipantThe interview vid in the last post…Turner is a very impressive guy.
Looks like they got a highly intelligent, creative, hard-working player, with very healthy interests outside of football. But I’m just not so sure they got the best football player possible at that moment in the Draft. Not sure he was the BPA, or fills the most pressing need for the team.
But he does seem like he has major intangibles all over the place. Should develop into a key locker-room guy, etc, and will lead by example. You can build a good team with guys like that.
Billy_TParticipantAnother way to go (pre-trade) might have been: Keep Goff, get him more weapons, protect him better, coach him up, and rebuild his confidence. Far less costly and better long term, IMO.
I think that’s all true but McV was not the patient coach who was going to coach Goff up. McV seems to be better with vets.
Agreed. McVay lacks patience. Brilliant coach, but impulsive and mercurial, at times. One might even say “fickle” in his football affections. But, I’m still very glad he’s the coach. Just hope he finds a way to smooth the rough edges.
He might be an excellent candidate for a Zen master to coach him up. Zazen can do wonders.
Billy_TParticipanti don’t like this pick. one year of so so production. meh. now hopefully he proves me completely wrong.
Also agreed. I always hope I’m wrong when I have a negative view of a pick. Want this kid to be great and make the doubters, like meself, eat proverbial crow, etc.
But, right now, I’m thinking the Rams had better options, even at DT, if they wanted to go that route. Colby Wooden or Moro Ojomo, for instance. I’m thinking the Rams fell in love with Turner’s story. They really, really need corners, though, and safeties, and another edge, and more O-line. Chandler Zavala might have been really good there. Avila was an excellent pick — at guard or center. Zavala is likely just a guard. Top flight. Like Braeden Daniels, Nick Salvideri, and Anthony Bradford too.
CB: Darius Rush, Bennett, and Cory Rice.
Billy_TParticipantJust a guess. But Young may be relatively young in football years, cuz he was away from the game for a bit. Doesn’t have the wear and tear of most players his age (25).
YEAR (GP/GS) TKLS TFL SACK FF PD INT NOTES
2017: Gulf Coast Sports Academy (Ala.) Only played in two games before leaving the program
2018: Out of football
2019: Georgia Military College
2020: Georgia Military College Season was canceled (COVID), but he practiced with the team
2021: (11/8) 46 11.5 5.5 0 2 1 Tennessee; Led team in TFL, sacks; Enrolled in January 2021; Missed first two games (ruled ineligible)
2022: (13/13) 37 12.0 7.0 0 0 0 Tennessee; First Team All-SEC; Led team in sacks
Total: (24/21) 83 23.5 12.5 0 2 1CONTENTSBilly_TParticipantLooks like the monster TE, Darnell Washington, finally came off the board, to Pittsburgh. If memory serves, more than a few Rams fans wanted him in horns. He does have massive potential, given his size and athleticism.
Billy_TParticipantThis draft has proven one thing. Well, it’s re-proven what we already knew: NFL teams don’t have the same boards as the draft “experts” and mock sims. All kinds of players went well before their supposed slot, and some, like Drew Sanders and Trenton Simpson, well after it.
A ton of surprises, both for how early and how late, etc.
Billy_TParticipanti wanted adebawore. but what do i know? none of the other teams are selecting him.
Agreed. I think Adebawore should have been the pick. Or Ringo. Or Kelee Ringo. Or Jakorius Bennett, from Maryland. Or Dawand Jones, tackle. Lotsa better choices, IMO.
Billy_TParticipantThis mock gives the Rams Keion White, Nick Saldiveri, and Jonathan Mingo, with no trade downs. It also has Seattle taking
Adetomiwa Adebawore one pick later, after White. I’d much rather have Adebawore, but White will be a serious upgrade at edge.Adebawore is potentially an even more athletic Aaron Donald — who could also play edge — with roughly the same height/weight profile. But his testing, for what that’s worth, was otherwordly.
HT WT ARM HAND WING 40-YD 20-YD 10-YD VJ BJ SS 3C BP
6015 282 33 7/8 10 1/2 81 5/8 4.49 2.62 1.55 37 1/2 10’5” – – 27
It’s a bonus that he’s just 22. White will turn 25 as a rookie, if the Rams make the playoffs.
Would be very happy with both 3rd round picks. Potential starter at offensive tackle, and a great running mate for Kupp, with #1 upside.
But I’d rather they trade down at #36.
Billy_TParticipantAll in all, if we’re talking about feeling really good about a team’s long term future via the QB? On the NFC side, I’m guessing just two teams feel honestly confident:
Philly and Chicago. And Philly had a crazy good 1st round yesterday, adding Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith to an already solid defense. Ray Charles in the City of Brotherly Love, with all of those kids from Athens. Chicago likely gave Fields a major upgrade at right tackle in Darnell Wright.
AFC does better on that score right now. First five teams listed, and the seventh, would be my guess.
Billy_TParticipantPlacing Stafford #11 is ridiculous. He has Trey Lance/Brock Purdy rated higher than Matthew Stafford, the ONLY name on that list to win a Super Bowl. Jordan Love is rated higher than Stafford. Jordan Love. The man with 606 yards passing in his CAREER. Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff are the only other QBs in the conference who ever played clutch in a game that mattered. Ever.
I think it’s too low for Stafford as well. Good point on Lance, Purdy, and Love. Lance and Purdy don’t really belong together, either, cuz the latter actually played enough to get an idea of his game. Lance hasn’t. I put Lance down toward the bottom, with a big old question mark. Stafford is better right now, from what we know. I’d say a lot better.
Also, Geno Smith has just that one good season. Yes, he was excellent last year, but it’s his first time, basically, showing up like that. I’d put Stafford ahead of him too. If we factor in age, recent injuries, etc. etc. I’d put Stafford at #6 going into this season (with a potential range up to #2). Would also move Murray up to #7. Geno goes to #8. Love, Lance, and Ridder round out the bottom.
The AFC side looks a bit more realistic, though I think the author has Wilson too low. He’ll snap back, I’m guessing. Maybe 8th or 9th.
Billy_TParticipantBig clusters of talent this year make it logical for trade downs, if the Rams can find partners. They may not be able to. But if they do, it’s key that they maximize the value. They shouldn’t be easy marks in those trades. Just keep the pick if they’re gonna be overly generous to other teams.
Tie breakers for me: Size/speed/athleticism, age, and leadership, etc. If the cluster has a bunch of guys rated in a similar way, I’m giving extra points to players with better size and athletic traits, then younger players, and intangibles. That’s not set in concrete, of course. The Rams should be flexible. As in, if the intangibles just fly off the charts . . . move them up. But, I think athleticism is a priority, and younger players typically give you a better window of time for peak performance, plus have room to grow, etc. etc.
Conversely, I’m going to ding ratings if a player is 25, has documented “character” issues, and a lack of athletic traits, etc.
I know. It’s kinda crazy to obsess about the Draft. There are worse vices, right?
;>)
Billy_TParticipantJalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Hyatt is often described by analysts as a “home run hitter,” but do you draft that player in the second round with so many needs elsewhere? If you’re the Rams, you might consider it if you’re still unsure about Tutu Atwell, plus No. 2 receiver Van Jefferson is in a contract year.
Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
The Rams have struggled to find a place for Atwell, another undersized prospect (though Downs has almost 20 more pounds on his 5-foot-8 frame), but the intriguing aspect of Downs’ game is his utter control of all his gears, which helps him get very, very open even in the crowded middle of the field. The Rams don’t need to find a replacement for Cooper Kupp’s slot production just yet, but eventually they will.
Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee
Tillman is a big, friendly quarterback target with great hands but he may be more suited for downfield (or as Brugler puts it) “linear” concepts.
Trey Palmer, WR, Nebraska
Palmer is a deep threat with blazing speed but a longer, larger frame. His skill set is the type I keep an eye on with Jefferson entering a contract year.
Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern
I love Adebawore’s versatility and potential in the NFL. He seems like an ideal rushing partner for Donald, plus he could really develop into a unique pass-rushing threat himself. I think scouts will look more at the projection of what he can become (Adebawore totaled a 9.83 raw athletic score, which puts him No. 46 among all defensive linemen since 1983 in terms of athletic traits) than what his numbers were at Northwestern. Analysts say he’s a high-character guy, too. Adebawore is “my guy” in this draft class and a player I don’t think the Rams can miss out on if he’s anywhere near a pick point.
Keeanu Benton, DL, Wisconsin
Benton plays with a ton of power and maneuvers space, which is what the Rams need on the interior alongside Donald.
Siaki Ika, DL, Baylor
The Rams do not have a space-eating nose tackle, and Ika could plug into their defensive line pretty early in his career.
Zacch Pickens, DL, South Carolina
Pickens blends strength and quickness at the position and could develop into a steady pass rusher.
Cody Mauch, G/T, North Dakota State
Brugler notes that Mauch has above-average hands and competitiveness, two hard-to-come-by traits for a prospect who could start early in his NFL career.
Steve Avila, G/C, TCU
Avila is less of the mold of undersized centers that the Rams have gravitated toward in recent years but can also be a stout guard if need be.
Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin
Tippmann’s range as a blocker seems like an ideal fit for the offensive system (especially the run game) traditionally run by Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. But does his skill set translate into the Rams’ offensive plan in 2023? If he’s a true target, that tells us a lot about the schematic direction of that offense.
John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota
Ya da da da da da da … (let me know in the comments if you get this one). Schmitz’s tenacity and wrestling background remind me of Rams center Brian Allen, whose injury history has created a need to explore more depth at the position.
Billy_TParticipantMichael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Mayer skews at the moment as a pass-catching tight end who could use a little more development but has a lot of potential in that phase that will be hard for a team to pass on early in the second round.
Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State
Kraft’s size, versatility and ability to create yards after the catch all fit a major Rams position need, even if he’s still in need of development.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
LaPorta has picked up just about every job a skill player can do on the field (including wildcat snaps) and is quick to create space in the short and intermediate layers of the field.
Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
Washington is still raw as a prospect but has all the versatile traits a team could want out of a do-it-all tight end.
Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan
Schoonmaker isn’t the flashiest of the tight end class (he does many things fine instead of a few things at an elite level) but has enough size and speed to project as a steady contributor.
BJ Ojulari, edge, LSU
Ojulari’s length and speed are a good match for a defense that needs at least one pass rusher to help take attention off of Aaron Donald.
Keion White, edge, Georgia Tech
Brugler calls White “scheme-proof” and solid against the run as well as a player with high upside as a pass rusher.
Derick Hall, edge, Auburn
Analysts say Hall is a high-character player, which would be a great fit for a defense that will be super young and untested in 2023. He may be more of a “power” rusher, which is fine if the Rams are married to the combination of Daniel Hardy and Michael Hoecht as speed rushers on the other side.
Isaiah Foskey, edge, Notre Dame
Foskey was a popular match for the Rams from another of our draft analysts, Diante Lee, because he could plug in immediately even while still developing (and he wouldn’t be a reach, so the Rams could still trade back and grab him).
YaYa Diaby, edge, Louisville
Diaby has a great speed/power combination but, per Brugler, definitely needs to develop more setup strategies for breaking down blockers.
Zach Harrison, edge, Ohio State
Harrison is Brugler’s No. 74-ranked prospect because he plays with some stiffness but has a ton of power and linear speed.
Billy_TParticipantI like Jourdan’s Best Available list, too. Has brief analysis on key players.
https://theathletic.com/4462849/2023/04/28/nfl-draft-best-available-rams/
Subscription necessary. Will copy and paste a couple:
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Many were surprised Porter fell out of the first round. The Athletic’s lead draft analyst Dane Brugler noted in his report on Porter that at times, he can be undisciplined and it’s not totally clear whether the Rams are even looking for a press corner. He’s hugely gifted and among the best available players left, so he is listed here.
Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
Again, not sure Ringo would fall into the second round. He matches a great combination of athletic traits at a position of huge need.
Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
The Rams have previously dipped successfully into their South Carolina pipeline (Ernest Jones). Smith is athletic, smart, coverage-versatile and projects well into ideally a more aggressive match zone.
Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State
I’ll be interested to see which round Brents is selected in, as the buzz on him has been all over the place. While Brents’ length and short-area speed projects well into a predominantly man-coverage cornerback, I’d be intrigued by what that skill set could mean in tightening up what is supposed to be an aggressive route-matching predominantly zone defense.
Cameron Mitchell, CB, Northwestern
Mitchell’s competitiveness and scheme versatility seem like a good fit for what will be a young Rams defense.
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