Suh is doing ok. imo
He is not the force I expected. I figure he is gone next year.

I am having Thanksgiving dinner on Saturday. I know people who had it last night. Everyone have some good food and good company.

Rams_81

Run Run Run Punt Prevent Defense has failed for years. Yet, so many fans, announcers, football people criticize coaches when they don’t cave into this failed philosophy that we see games lost every single week in the NFL.
The math, the results, the analytics, have proven this over time.

The exception is a situation obviously where you can burn the clock where the other team has to get an excessive amount of yardage for the score needed whether it be a touchdown or field goal. Here is a good rule of thumb on when it is acceptable to run 3 times and punt.

A) Other team needs 3 points or less – no timeouts for other team. Projected time left when other team gets ball:

1) 15 seconds left – other team will most likely get the ball at the 30 – basically need 30 yards for a field goal
2) 30 seconds left – other team will most likely get the ball inside the 20 – basically need 40 yards for a field goal
3) Anything beyond that going for the first down to close out the game is the proper call

cool smiley Other team needs 6 points – no timeouts for other team. Projected time left when other team gets ball:

1) 15 seconds left – Other team gets ball at 50 – basically need 50 yards for TD. Although games have been lost on this too, I would consider it.
2) 30 seconds left – Other team gets ball at 30 – basically need 70 yards for TD.
3) Anything beyond that going for the first down to close out the game is the proper call

I could not find the link for this article. It makes sense to me.
It is OK to run or pass. The important thing is getting the 1st down, because that wins the game.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-refocused-nfl-week-11-los-angeles-rams-54-kansas-city-chiefs-51

Tyreek Hill was stellar. The third-year speedster torched Sam Shields multiple times on the night and finished the game with 10 receptions for 215 yards and two touchdowns.

Mahomes had a handful of outstanding throws, but the throws he’ll remember will be his two fourth-quarter interceptions that ultimately put the game out of reach for the Chiefs.

This was not a night for defense. It was a brutal night for the Chiefs’ secondary. Kansas City stuck with a heavy dose of man coverage on the back end, and whether they were giving up completions or getting charged with penalties, they simply couldn’t keep pace with the Rams’ weapons on the outside.

Chris Jones was perhaps the lone Chiefs defender who turned in a standout effort. Jones had his way with Rams guard Rodger Saffold throughout the night, making plays in both the run game and as a pass-rusher.
Keys to the Game

Los Angeles

In a game with seemingly unlimited offense, there was also a high number of turnovers, and winning that battle was ultimately the difference.

Kansas City

Two Mahomes’ interceptions late in the fourth quarter kept Kansas City from pulling ahead in the final minutes.

16 minutes of highlights, that should be a record.

Here's a record that will fall tonight: No team in NFL history has ever scored 50 points in a loss. NFL teams to score 50+ points are 216-0 all-time, according to Elias.

— Lindsey Thiry (@LindseyThiry) November 20, 2018

I just had to repost this.

RB John Kelly

zn wrote:

… in a time when defenses are facing more short passing attempts, interior pressure is associated with a 27 percent decrease in offensive conversions.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000935117/article/aaron-donald-is-key-to-the-rams-grand-plans-so-pay-the-man

The bottom line: wins and losses

Teams with two above-average (or better) pass rushers AND two above-average (or better) corners have significantly higher win percentages, and they can succeed even with less dominant offenses. If you were to create “the average” offense, having all four of these defensive chess pieces would be worth between two and four wins, depending on schedule. There is a much bigger conversation here around how pass rushers and corners influence each other (and we’ll get to more of this in future pieces), but the data nets out such that having both produce at above-average and/or elite levels reinforces the efficiency of each part. Factoring in Donald, Suh, Talib and Peters projects to give Wade Phillips the weapons he needs to create a decided scheme advantage, even with unproven perimeter rushers.

But it doesn’t work without Donald.

I applied current rosters to the model and forecasted the entire 2018 season based on the trends from the historical findings. Then I looked at what happens with rushing, first downs allowed through the air, total yards surrendered and points allowed for the Rams with and without Donald. (I used the historical average as my “replacement player.”) Then I did the same for Fletcher Cox and Von Miller. While all three had a big impact on their teams, Donald being replaced with an “average player” changed the Rams’ season win total projection between 1.6 and 2.1 games, a range that is about 10 percent more than both of the other two top rushers.

Then I went back and did the same thing for Suh, Peters and Talib. In this case, the range grew to between 16-30 percent more for Donald.

The Rams seemingly went all in this season. On defense, the moves to bring in Talib, Peters and Suh seem to suggest they have set their expectations sky-high. However, Donald is the straw that stirs the drink in this strategy, and his production in context of the market shows why $20 million (or more) per year isn’t overpaying.

Follow Cynthia Frelund on Twitter @cfrelund.