Study Reveals Which NFL Team Has Most Bandwagon Fans

Study Reveals Which NFL Team Has Most Bandwagon Fans

https://www.fanduel.com/insider/2015/07/16/study-reveals-arizona-cardinals-have-most-bandwagon-fans/

An analysis we have had fun with this summer involves looking at fan response to winning rates. This encompasses looking at how different fan bases respond to variations in winning. If fans only show up when the team wins, does this mean they are bandwagon fans? Or does it mean that they demand quality? We report, you decide.

Studying which city has the most “bandwagon” or demanding fans is a challenge in the NFL. The issue is that many teams sell-out regardless of the team’s performance. How can we differentiate between the Steelers and the Packers when the stadiums are always full? As such for the NFL, we only present a top ten list of the cities with the most fair weather or discerning fans.

Here’s the final rankings of NFL Bandwagon/Discerning Fans:

1. Arizona Cardinals
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Oakland Raiders
5. Washington Redskins
6. St. Louis Rams
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. San Diego Chargers
10. Cleveland Browns

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2015 NFL Fan Equity Rankings

https://scholarblogs.emory.edu/esma/2015/07/08/2015-nfl-fan-equity-rankings/

For the past three years, we have tried to answer the question of which teams have the “best” fans. “Best” is a funny word that can mean a lot of things but what we are really trying to get at is what team has the most avid, engaged, passionate and supportive fans. The twist is that we are doing this using hard data, and that we are doing it in a very controlled and statistically careful fashion.

By hard data we mean data on actual fan behavior. In particular, we are focused on market outcomes like attendance, prices or revenues. A lot of marketing research focused on branding issues relies on things like consumer surveys. This is fine in some ways, but opinion surveys are also problematic. It’s one thing to just say you are a fan of a local team, and quite another to be willing to pay several thousand dollars to purchase a season ticket.

To truly understand fan engagement, it’s important to statistically control for temporary changes in the environment. This is a huge issue in sports because fans almost always chase a winner. The real quality of the sports brand is revealed when fans support a team through the tough times. The Packers or Steelers will sell-out the year after they go 6-10, not so much for the Jaguars. The other thing that separates sports brands from consumer brands is the cities themselves. The support a New York team gets in terms of attendance and pricing is always going to be tough to achieve for the team in Charlotte.

In terms of the nuts and bolts of what we are about to present, we use fifteen years of data on NFL team performance, ticket prices, market populations, median incomes, won-loss records and multiple other factors. We create statistical models of box office revenue, and then see which teams over- and under- perform the model’s predictions. For a much fuller description, and some limitations about what we are doing click here.

So who has the best fans? The winner this year is the Dallas Cowboys followed by the Patriots, Giants, Ravens, and Jets. The Cowboys have a storied history, a market that loves all forms of football, and a world-class stadium. “Deflate-gate” hasn’t hit the window of our analysis yet (it is after the 2014-2015 season), but the Pats strong showing in our ranking suggests that the impact will be small. The Jets position might be somewhat surprising, but this team draws well, and has great pricing power without a lot of winning on the field.

Maybe the biggest surprise is some of the teams that aren’t at the top. The Steelers and Packers have great fan followings. The Seahawks are slowly developing a great fan base. And these teams will do better when we switch to non-financial metrics such as social media following. But for the current “revenue premium” model these teams just don’t price high enough. In a way, these teams with massive season ticket waiting lists are the most supportive of their fans.

At the bottom we have the Bills, Jags, Raiders, Browns and Dolphins. There are some interesting and storied teams on this list. The Raiders have a ton of passion in the end zone but maybe not throughout the stadium. Cleveland may have never recovered from the loss of the Ravens, and the recreation of the Browns. Florida is almost always a problem on our lists. Whether it is the weather or the fact that many of the locals are transplants that didn’t grow up with the team, Florida teams just don’t get the support of teams in other regions.

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2015 NFL Social Media Equity Rankings

https://scholarblogs.emory.edu/esma/2015/07/15/2015-nfl-social-media-equity-rankings/

Last week we posted our “Fan Equity” rankings of NFL brands. The Fan Equity rankings are based on home box office performance adjusted for market size, winning rates and other factors. Every year the rankings inspire some very passionate responses. And some legitimate criticism. Clearly, summarizing something as complicated as fandom using a single metric is going to foster debate. In the case of the Fan Equity metric, the biggest issue is that revenues are constrained by stadium size (and pricing policies). Teams like the Packers and Steelers that always sell out and charge prices well below what they could take a hit on our Fan Equity measure.

Today, we present an analysis that removes capacity constraints and pricing issues. Today, we look at Social Media Equity. Essentially, what teams are over or under performing with respect to their Twitter following. Again, we control for factors like market size and short term winning rates (for more on our methodology, please click here).

But, before we get to the rankings, a couple of comments about several fan bases reactions to the Fan Equity study. Based on an informal “text” analysis of Twitter comments and email messages, three fan bases have really stood out to us.

Raiders Fans: The Passionate Lunatics.

When Raider fans get upset they go straight to threats; loud and aggressive threats. USUALLY IN ALL CAPS. Ass-kicking and promises of death were the most common responses. Also, it seems that many in the Raider Nations think that we are “putos” (which according to urban dictionary is a “Spanish word for a male prostitute”).

Here is one of our favorite emails from a Raider fan:

“You guys ever been to a Raider Game?? Your analytics are worth exactly shite!. Putting Raider Nation in the cellar. One of the largest and dedicated Fan Bases in the WORLD. Your algorithim probably had Romney winning in a landslide. Stick to wall street, you guys are absolutely a joke. Run quick and put on your Brady Jersey and Cowboy hat.”

Brown Fans: The Angry Artists.

I enjoyed the Browns fans the most. They were upset and questioned our competence but in a delightful manner. I especially like the work of @TheKardiacKid. In the future, we may have to put our thumb on the scales just to encourage more dialogue with these fans.

Bills Fans: The Nice Strivers.

The Bills fans were upset but usually very nice. The either came across as disappointed and just wanting to be ranked higher or presented polite arguments about the flaws in our study. In the future, we may have to put our thumb on the scales to help these guys score higher.

Now, we return to our social media analysis. When we look at Social Media Equity rankings, the winner for the “best” fan base is the Pittsburgh Steelers. No shocker. Great fan base that turn stadiums in Atlanta or Arizona Black and Gold on occasion. Following the Steelers are the Cowboys, Patriots, Packers and Saints. All this makes a lot of intuitive sense.

At the bottom of the list we have the Redskins, Bengals and Cardinals. Our prediction is that the Skins fans will be the maddest and the Cardinals fans the least concerned.

So what about our three fan bases discussed above (Browns, Raiders and Bills)? The social media metric is great for picking up passion across a wider population base because money and geography are removed from the equity equation. The Raiders become a top ten team. One thing about the Raiders is that the storied history of the team has likely created more of a national presence than other teams. The Browns score a respectable 13th and the Bills are 16th.