SI: Gurley proving he’ll join NFL’s elite RBs sooner rather than later

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  • #33482
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    Todd Gurley proving he’ll join NFL’s elite RBs sooner rather than later

    http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/11/03/todd-gurley-rookie-season-stats-rams?xid=nl_siextra

    We’ve all seen those Todd Gurley highlights come across our televisions during a gamebreak or on RedZone because, let’s face it, the Rams haven’t exactly been Game of the Week material in the recent past (although that could change in the second half of the season as St. Louis sits at 4–3).

    Gurley certainly looks impressive galloping through defenses on big gains, like the 71-yard touchdown he had on Sunday against the 49ers. Big, strong and fast would describe Gurley, who at this point looks like a cross between Adrian Peterson and former Jaguars great Fred Taylor. Considering Gurley is less than a year removed from tearing his ACL in his final season at Georgia, it’s even more impressive.

    Gurley’s statistics back up the snippets we’ve seen. Despite missing the first two games (and having just six carries for nine yards in his debut against Pittsburgh on Sept. 27), Gurley is fifth in the NFL in rushing yards (575), first in yards per game (115) and first yards per attempt (6.1). Gurley is also tied for second with seven rushes of 20 yards or more, and first with four rushes of 40 yards or more.

    Naturally, with those highlights and stats, the accolades have poured in for the Rams’ rookie RB. Columnists and talking heads have espoused that he is an undeniable talent who may change how his position is viewed by front offices, starring as this year’s No. 10 pick after 2013 and ’14 saw consecutive first rounds without a running back drafted for the first time since 1963.

    That will be proved in time, but at this point, Gurley is a bit perplexing. He has gaudy numbers, but just about every analytic you check has him as a good but not great back.

    What’s the truth? All of it, actually, if you take it in context.

    Per Football Outsiders (through Week 7, before the 49ers game), Gurley had a success rate of 45%, which ranked just 27th out of 38 qualifying backs. Success rate measures a back’s consistency based on the percentage of carries in which the player gains 40% of the needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down. That indicates that Gurley’s not getting a lot of mid-range gains, but has a lot of stuffed runs and a few really long gains.

    The Rams’ offensive line is No. 1 in an FO stat called Open Field Yards, which measures how many running back yards come at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. This stat points to Gurley’s home run ability and how he is very tough for a one-on-one tackler to bring down in the open field, which the film backs up.

    At Pro Football Focus, Gurley is the 11th-rated running back. If you toss out the first three weeks of the season, Gurley moves up to fifth but is well behind the top four of Doug Martin, Le’Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman and Chris Ivory. Gurley’s average of 3.2 yards after contact average since Week 3 is tied for eighth. In the same time period, Gurley is tied for fourth in missed tackles (18) behind Bell (23), Freeman and Martin (both with 19).

    There’s no question that Gurley is probably the biggest home run threat at running back in the NFL, and his 58.1 breakaway percentage on PFF (percentage of a back’s yardage that comes from rushes over 15 yards) shows that. Martin and Denver’s Ronnie Hillman are tied for second at 49.8%.

    Finally, Gurley is sixth in PFF’s elusive rating, which illustrates a runner’s success after being helped by his blockers. Bell, who was the undisputed top back in the game by any measure before his knee injury on Sunday, is first with an amazing 90.6.

    What does the film say about Gurley? Basically, that he gets what is blocked for him, and he has the finishing burst to make a big play if given a hole….

    … you have to give the Rams’ offensive line a lot of credit as well on those big plays. The unit has had their problems: Gurley’s 25.5% of stuff runs (gaining one yard or less outside of the opponent’s five-yard line) is mostly their issue, though it must be pointed out that among the best backs, only Bell, DeMarco Murray and Chris Johnson have a lower stuff percentage. But Gurley’s pretty much getting what’s blocked for him. So on those big runs, LT Greg Robinson, LG Garrett Reynolds, C Tim Barnes, RG Jamon Brown (starter Roger Saffold had season-ending shoulder surgery two weeks ago) and RT Rob Havenstein should take a bow as well. That bodes well for the future of the Rams. Reynolds (28) and Barnes (27) are the oldest starters among that group. They’ll get better with time.

    The same goes for Gurley. It’s amazing that he’s already at this point so soon after ACL surgery. He deserves all the bouquets thrown his way just for that. The simple fact that Gurley is to the point where he’s getting what is or isn’t blocked for him a great majority of the time shows that he has a leg up on most rookie runners, who usually have a longer adjustment period.

    Gurley also seems to be getting better with every game. That 48-yard run against the Browns was by far his most impressive run of the season to date. Not only did he find a miniscule cutback lane and break two tackles at the point of attack, but he then quickly got back up to speed and went horizontal to the sideline before most defenders knew what was going on. That’s a situation where Gurley greatly exceeded what was blocked. Once he starts doing that with more regularity, he will be one of the league’s elite. Six games into his career, Gurley is showing that time is going to be sooner rather than later.

    #33484
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    Todd Gurley’s 71-yard touchdown put Niners away early

    Nick Wagoner

    http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/23165/todd-gurleys-71-yard-touchdown-put-niners-away-early

    EARTH CITY, Mo. — A look back at the turning point play in the St. Louis Rams’ 27-6 win against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday:

    The situation: After yet another slow first-quarter start offensively, the Rams found themselves trailing the Niners 3-2 when they got the ball back with 10:35 to go in the second quarter. Despite attempting to jump-start the offense in the first quarter by going no-huddle on the opening drive, that unit again failed to produce much of anything. In the first quarter, the Rams had 53 yards of offense and just two first downs. On the one drive that had some promise, receiver Tavon Austin fumbled it away after a 24-yard gain.

    Running back Todd Gurley had six carries for 15 yards going into the Rams’ sixth possession as they took over at their 29 following a 30-yard punt.

    This TD by Todd Gurley on Sunday helped 4-3 St. Louis move above .500 in November for the first time in nine years.
    The play: The Rams have been unafraid to mix up their approach offensively this year, especially in the run game. They’ve used plenty of outside zone and misdirection and have also worked in some power concepts. On first down from the 29, they offered a look at a power run out of a look that normally wouldn’t portend one.

    With Gurley set up to quarterback Nick Foles’ left, two receivers split wide, one to the left and a tight end attached at the right side of the line, the Niners had four defenders at the line of scrimmage with all three corners also at the line, two linebackers at normal depth and two safeties 10-plus yards beyond the line.

    In a bit of a different look, offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti had this play set up with the intent to not only spread out the defense but get some of the Niners’ bigger run defenders off the field, which worked as they switched to a nickel package. At the snap, the Rams’ offensive line immediately created big holes by using favorable angles to their advantage. Left guard Garrett Reynolds pulled from his spot through the hole on the right side created by center Tim Barnes blocking down on the nose tackle and Jamon Brown doing the same to the end. That allowed right tackle Rob Havenstein to surge to the second level with Reynolds close behind. Havenstein easily wiped out the approaching linebacker and Reynolds took out the other one. The receivers and tight ends did their job in getting hat on hat with their defenders as well.

    Gurley, who is unafraid to press the hole with his speed, wasted no time turning on the accelerator, running through the angle that looked to be there for safety Eric Reid and outracing him untouched to the end zone for a 71-yard touchdown run. Really, there wasn’t much fancy about the play, but it was effective in part because it combined a very simplistic idea with a bit of a misleading formation.

    The fallout: Gurley’s 71-yard touchdown run is the longest of his young career and spurred him to his fourth 100-yard rushing effort in as many starts. It also helped him to an NFL record as the most prolific rusher in his first four NFL games since the AFL/NFL merger.

    More importantly, the touchdown gave the Rams an 8-3 lead that might not have seemed insurmountable at the time but considering San Francisco’s offensive struggles and the Rams’ defensive dominance, it was. The Rams tacked on plenty more to win by three touchdowns, but Gurley’s score turned out to be all that they would need as they improved to 4-3 on the year and sit with a record above .500 in November for the first time since 2006.

    #33485
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    Vikings on Gurley: He’s Adrian Peterson all over again

    The Vikings know they’re seeing a star player in Todd Gurley this weekend, mostly because he reminds them of one of their teammates.

    http://www.nfl.com/videos/san-francisco-49ers/0ap3000000571794/Next-Gen-Stats-Todd-Gurley

    “This guy, Todd Gurley, he’s special,” Minnesota cornerback Captain Munnerlyn said Monday, via TwinCities.com. “He’s Adrian Peterson all over again. … People don’t realize how big he is. … He can hit you with the home-run speed. He’s a young Adrian Peterson, but I like our Adrian Peterson better.”

    Gurley and Peterson are almost exactly the same size, but the production is likely what Munnerlyn is referring to. Outside of a ho-hum, six-carry debut, Gurley has been the most productive back in football averaging 141.5 yards per game off 22 carries. He’s scored three touchdowns and in that span, the Rams are 3-

    He’s exactly the player the Rams hoped he’d be when they selected him at No. 10 this past year, with the only concern being the typical wear and tear associated with an NFL running back. Gurley is also coming off an ACL tear he suffered in college.

    Peterson finished his rookie season with more than 1,300 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns and 5.63 yards per carry. Through his first five games, he was well over six yards per touch, which is the current pace Gurley is setting for himself now.

    We’ll see if both up their game on Sunday in what promises to be an old-fashioned affair. Can the new Adrian Peterson upstage the original?

    #33654
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    Devalue This

    by Peter King

    TUE MAY. 26, 2015

    Conventional wisdom is that you can find your feature running back late in the draft, or even sign one off the street. So how could the Rams take a running back five months removed from ACL surgery with the 10th overall pick? Because Todd Gurley is a rare breed: a running back you can build an offense around

    http://mmqb.si.com/2015/05/26/todd-gurley-2015-nfl-draft-st-louis-rams

    In part because NFL news is never-ending, and in part because you just can never read enough about allegedly deflated footballs, one off-season story has gotten a small fraction of the attention it would have gotten during a quieter May.

    In a time of radical devaluation of running backs, a tailback five months removed from surgery to repair a torn ACL was selected 10th overall in the 2015 NFL draft.

    And so you think one of two things about Todd Gurley: Either he’s really good, or the Rams really reached to pick him in the top third of round one.
    “It’s never been a big thing to me, where I get drafted, who drafts me,” Gurley said in the wake of the Rams’ choice—and the revelation (per The MMQB) that St. Louis had the rehabbing runner as the No. 1 overall player on its 2015 draft board. “I always felt it’d be a blessing just to get drafted, and to be able to continue playing football somewhere in the NFL. Tenth overall, whatever… I’m happy to just get drafted, period.

    First, a few factoids about the value of running backs:

    1. Of the 13 leading rushers in the NFL in 2014, one (Marshawn Lynch) was a first-round draft pick.

    2. In the 2014 draft, the first running back came off the board at the 54th overall pick. That was Bishop Sankey, taken by Tennessee.

    3. In the four drafts between 2011 and 2014, only one running back was picked in the top 25 of any draft. That was Trent Richardson, selected No.

    3 by Cleveland in 2012.

    4. Number of teams that have employed Trent Richardson since 2012: three.

    5. Number of 100-yard rushing games by Trent Richardson in his last 40 games: zero.

    6. And finally: If you take the top 10 rushers in the NFL in 2014 and figure the average overall draft pick spent on those 10 players, that number would be 95, around the last pick of the third round. (That includes one undrafted free agent, Arian Foster. There were 256 players drafted the year he was not chosen, 2009, and so for the sake of figuring this average, I gave Foster the number 257.)

    Strangely, in light of all that, when I called around in the days after the draft about any number of topics, I didn’t hear one GM or personnel man say, The Rams are crazy. In fact, I found out that Tampa Bay had Gurley No. 5 on its board. I found out that one annually intelligent drafting team had Gurley at No. 11—and would have tried to move up into the late teens to get him had he still been on the board around pick 15 or 16.

    One reason is that NFL teams trust Gurley’s surgeon, Dr. James Andrews, to be able to put his knee back together again and get it in the same condition, or tighter, than when it was injured last November. Andrews told teams the week before the draft that he’d put his professional reputation on the line that Gurley, when fully healed sometime late this year, will be as good as he ever was, and no more susceptible to chronic knee problems than any other running backs.

    The other reason: NFL teams saw Gurley as the best back to come into the draft since Adrian Peterson was picked seventh overall in 2007. The comparison is interesting. Peterson is 6-1 and 218; Gurley is 6-1 and 222. Peterson’s official 40 time is 4.40; Gurley’s estimated 40 time is 4.40. Peterson has reportedly run a 40-yard dash in 4.24 seconds, and Gurley, who ran the 110-meter hurdles at the World Junior Championship in 2011, has been recorded below 4.3 in the 40 too. Peterson has made his living being strong enough to make the tough yards between the tackles and fast enough to hit the home runs outside the tackles. Ditto Gurley.
    St. Louis has been dying for a franchise running back. Since Steven Jackson left for Atlanta two years ago—and even before, actually; the Rams thought Jackson was declining in 2012—coach Jeff Fisher has wanted a back like Gurley. Fisher is a throwback coach. Most of the league craves an offense with a 60-40 pass-run split. Fisher would love it to be 50-50, or even 55-45 run. He likes to play offense with a back capable of wearing down defenses with long drives early in games and eating the clock in the fourth quarter.

    “Here’s what it came down to for us,’’ said GM Les Snead. “Todd, for us, was one of those once-every-few-years talents, one of the best players we’ve seen come out in a while. We just felt he was somebody we couldn’t pass up. This wasn’t about Week 1 against Seattle, whether he’d be ready to go then; we will let nature takes its course on that. This was a long-term decision.

    “One of the things we looked at was the team around him. I’m not sure about this, but it’s possible there might not be an offensive lineman who blocked for him at Georgia who will start at the next level, or play at the next level. When we looked at him on tape, we saw him playing against a lot of seven- and eight-man fronts, which is what he’s going to be seeing when he lines up for us. We saw him playing against not a lot of air, which is what he’s going to be seeing when he plays for us. So that translates pretty well.”

    I asked Snead about the Adrian Peterson comparisons.

    “I can see people thinking of him at that level,’’ he said. “When you watch him, you see him run like that sometimes.”
    And Gurley?

    “That comparison is not up to me,” he said unemotionally. It’s clear this is not the first time he’s been asked about being the best since Peterson—in the eyes of some. “It’s a great comparison, but it’s not something I have any idea about. I’ve got a long way to go for that.”
    Mike Mayock said he likes the Marshawn Lynch comparison more. “St. Louis wants to win games the same way Seattle and San Francisco in the same division do—running the ball and playing great defense and playing great special teams,” the NFL Network analyst said. “I like the fit in St. Louis.”

    * * *

    For Gurley (no helmet), the wait for a return to the field continued at minicamp. (Jeff Roberson/AP) For Gurley (no helmet), the wait for a return to the field continued through minicamp. (Jeff Roberson/AP)
    Fisher really hasn’t had a workhorse back with some outside burst since Eddie George in Tennessee. And even George would admit he didn’t have the burst Gurley does. But the story here is not just Gurley helping Fisher play football the way the coach has always wanted to. It’s also that the Rams don’t want Nick Foles to have it in his head that he has to throw it 35 times every week for the team to have a chance to win. If Fisher had his way, the quarterback would be a complementary player. He doesn’t want to play a Drew Brees or Peyton Manning game—in part because he doesn’t have Brees or Manning, but mostly because he’s more comfortable playing football the more traditional way.

    If the rest of the NFL wants to move the chains with 40 mostly short passes every game, Fisher understands. That’s the way teams are being built. He’d preferred to win with a strong ground game, and a mashing line. Now that he has his preferred front five and running back, we should see by late this season (when Gurley is back to form) if he’s right.
    “It’s been a long time coming,’’ Fisher said after the draft, speaking of his desire to get a back he can make his go-to offensive key. “Clearly, he was set back because of the injury, but the athletic ability, the strength, the explosion, the acceleration, the instincts that he has as a runner, and he’s also got great hands out of the backfield. He’s that complete back. This was an opportunity we could not pass up. The board was right.”
    He’s referring to the board that had Gurley as the draft’s No. 1 overall player. It’s a risk, particularly when recent history says running backs can be found low in the draft (and after the draft too). Fisher might be putting his future with the Rams on the line with Gurley, and one thing is sure: He’s happy to do it.

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