rookie v. 3rd year OL

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  • January 16, 2015 at 9:53 am #16679
    Avatar photozn
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    from off the net

    ==

    dzrams

    I think we, and fans in general, tend to overestimate how productive a rookie is going to be in the first few years. In fact, I think we tend to overestimate the success of draft picks period. I know everyone doesn’t like PFF but they do have a grading system for players and years of data so their info is really helpful in making large scale observations.

    Out of curiosity I compiled data from 2010 – 2014 (last 5 years) on how they rated C’s, OG’s, and T’s in their first thru fourth years. Specifically, I was looking at what percentage of rookies graded out positively at those positions, what percentage of 2nd year players, 3rd year, etc…

    Here are my observations:

    — As I suspected, rookies are very rarely productive in their 1st year. OG’s were at 17% (18/105), C’s at 16.6% (6/36) and OT’s were at 14.7% (14/95). The number of players graded as positive contributors in their rookie season was at best 1 out of 6.

    — There was a sizable leap in positive ratings in the 2nd and 3rd year at every one of those positions.

    — By the 3rd year, the positive grades had nearly doubled at every position.

    — However, the 3rd year positive ratings were only at 37% for OT’s, 34% for C’s, and 31% for OG’s. This underscores the fact that most draft picks don’t pan out.

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