qb development

This is about the fact that in the last few years, the entire process of qb development and drafting has (I argue) changed.

First, the development process. The Rams have had 4 good qbs since 98–and all of them were developed, though in different ways.

Bradford was a spread qb in college who looked to the sideline for playcalls, so he had to go from being that kind of qb in college to being more of a pro who was capable of benefitting from pre-snap reads.

Warner spent years in various stages of apprenticeship. By the time he started in 99, he had been through 3 NFL training camps, had been a graduate assistant in college football, had played in the arena league and NFL europe, and had spent one entire year (98) as a 3rd string scout team qb.

Green was a low draft pick who drifted to Canada and then improved enough in Washington to become a starting-caliber free agent.

Bulger was cut, picked up by the Rams, was the 3rd qb option until Martin got hurt. By the time he played in 2002, it was his 3rd year.
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However, it is true that after Roethlisberger more teams found the formula for using rookie qbs–add a rookie to an established team with a defense, start him early, but limit what he does at first. Same thing with Flacco and Wilson. That’s more or less what the Rams did with Bradford, but the difference was, SB landed on a less developed team. They didn’t have the defense, and they didn’t have the weapons.

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What about drafting? I’ve heard it said that if you want a decent rookie qb who has the chance to become a top qb, you have to use the first round.

Mostly that has been true throughout NFL history…but lately, it’s not as true as it was.

Since 2011, the hit rate on 2nd and 3rd round qbs is as high as if not higher than the first round. There is not that much difference between round 1 and rounds 2-3 anymore.

Of course it’s too soon to tell but the hit rate on qbs taken after round 3 is virtually non-existent.

Something changed in 2011, and qb does not work the way it did before.

1ST ROUND QBS, 2011-2014

2014 1 3 Blake Bortles
2014 1 22 Johnny Manziel
2014 1 32 Teddy Bridgewater
2013 1 16 EJ Manuel
2012 1 1 Andrew Luck
2012 1 2 Robert Griffin
2012 1 8 Ryan Tannehill
2012 1 22 Brandon Weeden
2011 1 1 Cam Newton
2011 1 8 Jake Locker
2011 1 10 Blaine Gabbert
2011 1 12 Christian Ponder

Sure hits (though not always stars) so far: I count 5 of 12. 41.6%. If you count Griffin it’s 50%.

2ND + 3RD ROUND QBS, 2011-2014

2014 2 36 Derek Carr .
2014 2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo
2013 2 39 Geno Smith
2013 3 73 Mike Glennon
2012 2 57 Brock Osweiler
2012 3 75 Russell Wilson
2012 3 88 Nick Foles
2011 2 35 Andy Dalton
2011 2 36 Colin Kaepernick
2011 3 74 Ryan Mallett

Sure hits (though not always stars) so far: I count 5 of 10. 50%. A lot of people like Garoppolo but for me it’s way too soon to say.