Bell, the RB market, Gurley, future RB contracts

Bucky Brooks

from http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000941322/article/earl-thomas-potential-landing-spots-darrelle-revis-true-legacy?campaign=Twitter_atn

RB MARKET: Hybrid playmakers bound to blow up pay structure
Do we pay the position or the player?

That question — raised by Le’Veon Bell’s representatives following his failed contract negotiation with the Pittsburgh Steelers — is one that NFL executives and agents will certainly debate in the coming years, with a handful of marquee running backs vying for new contracts that reflect their value as elite offensive weapons on their respective teams.

While the general devaluation of the running back position is nothing new, the emergence of hybrid playmakers at the position will soon reset the market and change how the marquee, game-changing talents are valued by general managers, scouts and coaches in the near future.

Now, I know that statement will make some traditionalists in the scouting community cringe, but the individual and collective performances of guys like Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Bell will challenge league executives’ thoughts on the position. How do you properly compensate the top playmakers at running back, particularly when they are big backs with exceptional skills as runner-receivers?

For the past decade or so, general managers and scouts have viewed running backs as replaceable commodities that can be found throughout the draft or in the free-agent market. Numbers crunchers don’t value what special players bring to the position — despite defensive coordinators continuing to build game plans around stopping the run and containing backfield playmakers, while offensive play designers keep expanding the job description of the RB1s around the league. I’ve heard reports of running backs being asked to learn the “F” (slot receiver), “X” (split end) and “Z” (flanker) positions — on top of their regular duties. In addition, they are meeting with receiver coaches and spending parts of their individual practice periods learning the nuances of the WR position.

Stop and think about that: Some teams are asking for their RB1 to master the skills of the normal position, while also learning a new position on the fly. With the running backs also tasked with learning how to block in pass protection, the elite hybrids are more than earning their paychecks as multi-faceted playmakers.

“Elite running backs have to be able to run, block and catch in today’s game,” an AFC running backs coach told me. “If you can’t contribute in the passing game, it is hard to make an impact as an every-down player. … The stars at the position not only make an impact as receivers, but they can take over the game without touching the ball as runners.”

To that point, Bell, Gurley and Johnson deserve VIP status, based on their performance and production as runners and receivers. Bell’s career average of 129.0 scrimmage yards per game is currently the highest mark among qualified players in NFL history, ahead of Hall of Fame inductees Jim Brown (125.5), Barry Sanders (118.9), Walter Payton (111.9), Marshall Faulk (108.8) and LaDainian Tomlinson (108.6). Gurley earned 2017 Offensive Player of the Year honors after leading the league with 2,093 scrimmage yards and 19 total touchdowns. Johnson missed almost the entire 2017 campaign with a wrist injury, but nearly joined the ultra-exclusive 1,000/1,000 Club (1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season, something only Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk have accomplished) when he emerged as a superstar at the position in 2016.

Now, generally speaking, when today’s average fan thinks about running backs, the mind immediately goes to the position’s short shelf life. People think about mileage and perceived injury risks, and invariably lump every running back into the same bucket of risky business. But the aforementioned hybrids are different. They’re special, as big-bodied runner-receiver types with size, hands and route-running ability. Those traits are significant, due to NFL coaches’ desire to keep versatile RB1s on the field on every down. Unlike some of the scat back types that excel primarily as receivers (see: Christian McCaffrey, Tarik Cohen, Dion Lewis), Johnson, Gurley and Bell are bangers who also happen to have polished receiving skills. That’s why scouts far and wide were so fascinated by Saquon Barkley during the run-up to the 2018 NFL Draft.

“It’s hard to find a big back that can do it all,” the AFC running back coach said to me. “If you have a special one, you better keep him because there’s no guarantee that you’ll find a couple of guys who can handle the job.”

With that in mind, we should re-examine how running backs are classified, particularly when they are used extensively as pass catchers. And yes, I’m including myself when it comes to the need for re-examination.

Earlier this offseason, I wrote in multiple pieces about how the Steelers would be wise to just let Bell walk, as opposed to overpaying him on a long-term deal. Now, in my defense, part of my rationale was that Pittsburgh has a series of important players who’ll need new money soon (including Ben Roethlisberger, Maurkice Pouncey and Marcus Gilbert), so they have to allocate limited resources in the best possible manner. Also, given that the 2018 draft was deep at RB, I thought the Steelers could at least throw some draft capital at the position as some type of insurance. (They didn’t.)

But here’s the honest truth: I’ve changed my thinking when it comes to big-bodied hybrid running backs. Yes, just in the last few months. The more I ponder guys like Bell, Gurley and Johnson, the more convinced I am that they hold unique value.

Last season, there were 14 running backs with at least 50 receptions, and some of those guys were essentially slot receivers (McCaffrey, Duke Johnson, Theo Riddick and Tarik Cohen) that were featured prominently in their teams’ game plan. That’s why Bell, Gurley and Johnson deserve top-tier money that really reflects their value as RB1s and WR2s.

Remember, the highest average annual salary for a running back, according to Spotrac, tops out at Devonta Freeman’s $8.25 million figure. The highest annual average for a wide receiver? Antonio Brown’s $17 million mark. Eleven wideouts are currently making at least $14 million annually, and 22 make more than the highest-paid running back. With WR2s like Randall Cobb ($10 million), Donte Moncrief ($9.6 million) and Marqise Lee ($8.5 million) included in that group, I can see why Bell, Gurley and Johnson are griping about being underpaid based on their production and responsibilities as hybrids.

But it’s not just the WR market that has premier running backs looking sideways — the crazy money doled out to marginal quarterbacks is just as startling. No disrespect to Sam Bradford ($20 million per year), Ryan Tannehill ($19.25 million), Case Keenum ($18 million), Blake Bortles ($18 million) and Andy Dalton ($16 million), but each makes more than Bell’s salary on a franchise tag ($14.54 million). Do we really believe any of those guys are better players or more impactful than No. 26? Moreover, I don’t even know if any of those aforementioned guys can be considered the “engine” for their respective offenses — i.e., the guy that makes everything go. When I think about it in that context, I can easily make the argument that the Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs are among the teams that lean on their RB1s to drive the bus, instead of the designated QB1.

That’s why it’s dangerous to simply pay guys by their position, instead of what they’re actually bringing to the table as playmakers. Bell, Gurley and Johnson are brand names and they deserve to have salaries that match their production on the field. Now, I know skeptics will point out the risk in giving out a big payday to a running back, but hybrids should age gracefully as they compile touches on the perimeter on passes that put them in more 1-on-1 situations, instead of the 9-on-7 matchups that exist in the running game.

With the NFL continuing to evolve into a passing league, the pay scale for hybrid playmakers with elite skills and production should more closely match the job description.