post-cut down roster assessment & power rankings & predictions & stuff like that

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  • #73717
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    Rams strongest at receiver position for first time in a long time

    Alden Gonzalez

    http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-rams/post/_/id/35124/the-rams-are-strongest-at-wr-for-the-first-time-in-a-long-time

    LOS ANGELES — The Los Angeles Rams begin their season on Sunday, with a 1:05 p.m. PT home game against the Indianapolis Colts, and you might not recognize them.

    The coaching staff is mostly new, save for three holdovers from Jeff Fisher’s staff. And when the Rams finalized their 53-man roster on Saturday, 21 of the players on it were not with the team in 2016. The Rams are coming off a 4-12 season in their first year in Los Angeles. They’re trying to establish themselves in the nation’s second-largest media market, and now face competition from the neighboring Los Angeles Chargers.

    Change — drastic change — was to be expected.

    The Rams beefed up their receiving corps, addressed the left side of their offensive line and added depth at linebacker. Over the past five seasons, either 39 or 40 players took at least 100 snaps for them on offense and defense. That equates to 17 or 18 players outside of the starters having a significant impact on a season. Depth is important.

    Below is my ranking of each position on the Rams, based on overall talent and depth.

    1. Wide receiver: The position has long been something of a dry well for the Rams, but they did a nice job of addressing it this year. They signed Robert Woods and traded for Sammy Watkins, giving themselves two young, legitimate primary targets. They drafted a slot receiver in Cooper Kupp and a vertical threat in Josh Reynolds, both of whom looked good this summer. And they put themselves in a situation where they don’t have to depend on Tavon Austin. He’s fourth on the depth chart now, so, anything they get from him is a bonus. Back are Pharoh Cooper and Mike Thomas, who must first serve a four-game suspension. They look good, too.

    2. Linebacker: The switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips created a need for more linebackers and fewer defensive linemen. On the outside, the Rams have Robert Quinn and Connor Barwin, who have combined for 104 1/2 sacks. Inside are Alec Ogletree and Mark Barron, each of them supremely athletic. The Rams will head into the season with five backups here. A key one is Samson Ebukam, a gifted pass-rusher who was selected in the fourth round of this year’s draft. The rest of the group includes three returnees (Matt Longacre, Bryce Hager and Cory Littleton) and another rookie (Ejuan Price).

    3. Safety: Rodney McLeod left in 2016 and T.J. McDonald left in 2017, but the Rams are fine here. Lamarcus Joyner is making the transition from slot corner to free safety, a position he excelled at in college. And Maurice Alexander is solidified as the starting strong safety, the spot that suits him best. Joyner is one of at least three Rams safeties who can easily line up at cornerback, in addition to Blake Countess and rookie third-round pick John Johnson.

    4. Tight end: The Rams are young here at the top, with second-year player Tyler Higbee and rookie Gerald Everett combining for 11 NFL catches. Their No. 3 tight end, Temarrick Hemingway, who barely even stepped on the field last year, suffered a fractured fibula and will not play this season. But the Rams replaced him by trading for former Washington Redskins tight end Derek Carrier, a veteran heading into his sixth season. Higbee, Everett and Carrier each bring skills and athleticism to the passing game.

    5. Defensive line: This ranking includes Aaron Donald, who is currently on the reserve/did not report list. It also excludes Dominique Easley, who tore his ACL again and will be out for the year. Outside of Donald and nose tackle Michael Brockers, the Rams’ most experienced defensive lineman is Tyrunn Walker, who started 12 games over the past two years. The rest of the group — Ethan Westbrooks, Morgan Fox, Tanzel Smart and newcomer Quinton Jefferson — is unproven.

    6. Running back: This position took a hit when Lance Dunbar, brought in largely to catch passes out of the backfield, was placed on the physically unable to perform list. Todd Gurley will carry a heavy workload once again, and the Rams won’t need much else if he remains healthy. But Malcolm Brown will nonetheless get a crack at being his backup, after carrying the ball only 22 times over the past two years. And Justin Davis, an exciting undrafted free agent out of USC, is behind him. It’ll be interesting to see how much Austin factors into this position.

    7. Cornerback: E.J. Gaines was dealt to the Buffalo Bills in the Watkins trade and Troy Hill is suspended for the first two games. Starting opposite Trumaine Johnson, the Rams’ franchise corner, will be Kayvon Webster, who didn’t see many snaps while playing on loaded Broncos secondaries. The Rams are high on Webster and Nickell Robey-Coleman, who has excelled out of the slot but has been tried out on the outside. Behind them are the lesser-known Kevin Peterson (undrafted free agent in 2016) and Dominique Hatfield (undrafted free agent in 2017). But some of those safeties can help.

    8. Offensive line: The Rams did a nice job solidifying the left side of their offensive line, signing left tackle Andrew Whitworth and center John Sullivan while solidifying Rodger Saffold as the left guard. But the right side, made up of Jamon Brown and Robert Havenstein, struggled at times in the preseason. And the depth behind may be lacking. Andrew Donnal is the primary backup with an ability to play tackle and guard, but he has barely practiced because of a knee injury. The Rams also kept tackle Darrell Williams and center Austin Blythe. On Sunday, they were assigned centers J.J. Dielman and Aaron Neary, though Dielman can also play tackle and Neary can also play guard.

    9. Quarterback: The Rams stayed young here. Very young. The starter is Jared Goff, who, at 22, will be the NFL’s second-youngest starting quarterback. His backup is Sean Mannion, a 2015 third-round pick who has thrown 13 career passes. They both have a lot to prove, especially Goff, who’s coming off a horrid rookie season. The Rams cut longtime backup Dan Orlovsky, but they could bring him back after Week 1, when his 2017 salary is no longer fully guaranteed.

    #73762
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    LMU93 wrote:

    FO has been projecting the Rams as an 8-8 team for months. This reflects that

    ===

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

    The following table shows the 15 teams with the strongest odds of making the postseason based on a simulation of the season run on September 4, 2017. This simulation differs from the simulation run in Football Outsiders Almanac 2017 because it accounts for preseason injuries and trades.

    This simulation accounts for Andrew Luck’s injury, giving him increasing probability of returning each week from Week 3 to Week 7. The simulation also accounts for the Ezekiel Elliott suspension but not yet for the Aaron Donald holdout.

    The full simulation (or, depending on the Elliott suspension appeal, a new simulation) will be posted when we post preseason DVOA projections on Wednesday, September 6.

    Odds to Make 2017 Playoffs
    1 NE 87.8%
    2 PIT 79.6%
    3 SEA 65.1%
    4 GB 59.6%
    5 OAK 49.9%
    6 TEN 47.2%
    7 CAR 46.3%
    8 DAL 45.3%
    9 NYG 45.1%
    10 KC 43.5%
    11 ARI 42.4%
    12 ATL 41.4%
    13 LARM 38.3%
    14 BAL 37.5%
    15 LACH 37.0%

    #73823
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    Rams Power Rankings: Week 1

    Kristen Lago

    http://www.therams.com/news-and-events/article-1/Rams-Power-Rankings-Week-1-/5b3c239e-254c-4083-a5ad-6fc30278e229

    This is the week Rams’ fans have been waiting for — Week 1 of the regular season. The Rams will kick off the 2017 season with a home opener on Sunday against the Colts. And as the Rams get ready for the official kickoff to their game days, each week TheRams.com will be taking an aggregate look at where the team ranks in different outlets across the sports media landscape.

    Here are the power rankings for the Rams coming out of the preseason and heading into Week 1:

    NFL.com, Elliot Harrison Rank: 29

    ESPN.com Rank: 27

    SBNation.com Rank: 25

    Yahoo! Shutdown Corner Rank: 25

    USA Today Rank: 24

    Bleacher Report Rank: 28

    The Washington Post Rank: 27

    Sports Illustrated, Peter King Rank: 29

    CBS Sports, Pete Prisco Rank: 26

    THIS WEEK’s OPPONENT’S RANKS — INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

    NFL.com — 27

    ESPN.com — 18

    SBNation.com — 27

    Yahoo! Shutdown Corner — 28

    USA Today — 27

    Bleacher Report — 32

    Washington Post — 24

    Sports Illustrated — 24

    CBS Sports — 25

    #73848
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from 2017 DVOA Projections

    Aaron Schatz

    Here are our DVOA projections for 2017, updated from the season forecasts in Football Outsiders Almanac 2017.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/2017-dvoa-projections

    Los Angeles Rams
    Overall Rank: 14th
    Offense: 27th
    Defense: 2nd
    Special Teams: 2nd
    Mean Wins: 8.3
    Playoff Odds: 37.6%
    Projected 2018 Draft Position: 20th

    #73923
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Rams 2017 preview: Position-by-position analysis

    RICH HAMMOND

    link: http://www.dailynews.com/2017/09/07/rams-2017-preview-position-by-position-analysis/

    QUARTERBACK

    It’s finally time to learn the truth about Jared Goff. As a rookie in 2016, he went 0-7 as a starter and got battered while he played behind a dreadful offensive line. Goff’s protection, and pass-game targets, have improved. Most importantly, so have his teachers, as the Rams added a head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach who have recent experience with successful NFL quarterbacks. There’s every reason to expect improvement from Goff this season. If it doesn’t happen, things could get ugly.

    RUNNING BACK

    So, now what, Todd Gurley? Gurley struggled through an awful 2016 season, one in which he averaged 3.2 yards per carry and never topped more than 85 yards in a game. Things should get better. The Rams upgraded their offensive line, and an improved pass game should open up more things for Gurley. Look also for the Rams to get Gurley more involved in the pass game. The onus is on Gurley to improve. Last season, he was too impatient and didn’t always seem in sync with the offensive line.

    RECEIVER

    No group got transformed more, and more effectively, during the offseason. Out went Kenny Britt and Brian Quick, and in came Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. The Rams now, at least on paper, have everything they need. Watkins is a proven deep threat, Woods is a solid possession receiver and a good run-blocker, and Kupp will go over the middle to make tough catches. Then there’s the (highly paid) wild card, Tavon Austin, for whom the Rams need to find a role.

    TIGHT END

    Coach Sean McVay loves his tight ends, so when Temarrick Hemingway suffered a broken leg in the preseason, the Rams traded for Washington’s Derek Carrier, even though they already had Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett lined up as starters. Higbee will get a chance, but don’t be shocked if Everett, who is very athletic with tackle-evading moves, eventually takes over as the primary target.

    OFFENSIVE LINE

    Well, this should be interesting. In training camp and preseason, the left side of the line looked fine with tackle Andrew Whitworth and guard Rodger Saffold, and center John Sullivan did his job. The concern is on the right side, where the Rams have flipped Rob Havenstein twice (he’s now back at tackle) and were not able to consistently run the ball to the right side behind Havenstein and Jamon Brown. If there’s a unit most likely to undergo some in-season shuffling, this is the one.

    DEFENSIVE LINE

    Clearly, this is a different group when it includes Aaron Donald. Without him, it looks a little dicey. Michael Brockers will do an effective job holding the middle at nose tackle, but preseason reps indicated that the Rams might be less confident in their options at end, with Donald holding out. Ethan Westbrooks should start on one end, and without Donald, the other spot might go to rookie Tanzel Smart or Morgan Fox. Donald’s absence is more likely to hurt the Rams when it comes to run defense.

    LINEBACKER

    There might not be a faster, more aggressive group in the NFL. Alec Ogletree and Mark Barron, a one-time safety, hold down the middle, while Connor Barwin and Robert Quinn, a converted defensive end, play the outside. The only problems here might be with size and health. Ogletree and Barron aren’t exactly heavy, stout inside linebackers. Barron had a nagging injury throughout the preseason, and it’s always a guessing game as to whether Quinn will be able to make it through a full season.

    DEFENSIVE BACK

    There’s good depth and versatility at cornerback. Trumaine Johnson leads that group, and Kayvon Webster holds down the other starting spot, but the Rams also have confidence that nickel back Nickell Robey-Coleman can play on the outside if necessary. The defensive backs enjoy Phillips’ system, which encourages them to make plays on the ball. The question is whether the Rams will be strong enough at safety, with converted corner Lamarcus Joyner and Maurice Alexander.

    SPECIAL TEAMS

    There’s no reason to expect a dropoff from this group, which was (somewhat sadly) the highlight of the Rams’ 2016 season. Johnny Hekker remains arguably the NFL’s top punter and, at age 27, should remain strong for years to come. Kicker Greg Zuerlein seemed to be on the verge of losing his job after the 2015 season, but he rebounded last year and made 19 of 22 attempts, and he was perfect on six field-goal attempts this preseason. The Rams’ coverage units are aggressive and effective.

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