Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Rams Huddle › How Doug Baldwin's contract extension could impact Tavon Austin
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July 1, 2016 at 9:40 am #47597
znModeratorHow Doug Baldwin’s contract extension could impact Tavon Austin
How Doug Baldwin's contract extension could impact Tavon Austin
The Seattle Seahawks solidified their wide receiving corps on Tuesday by extending Doug Baldwin to a four year deal. According to ESPN, the deal is worth $46 million with $24 million guaranteed. That puts Baldwin’s value at just over $11 million per year.
While Baldwin has averaged 79.75 yards per game and scored two touchdowns against the Los Angeles Rams the last two years, this deal may impact the team more than just on the football field.
It isn’t an immediate situation to address on the agenda, but at some point in the next two years, general manager Les Snead is going to have to extend Tavon Austin. That is, if he wants to keep the former No. 8 overall pick on the roster.
Given that a wide receiver like Baldwin, who isn’t necessarily seen as an elite wide out, will be the seventh highest paid receiver in the NFL, the Rams may have to break the bank for Austin.
Baldwin has just six 100-yard games in five seasons with the Seahawks. To put that in comparison, all six guys getting paid more on average than him have had at least that many over the past two seasons. On top of that, Baldwin just broke 1,000 yards for the first time in his career in 2015.
This doesn’t bode well for the Rams. Even though Austin has yet to break 500 yards receiving in a single season and just recently topped the 50 reception mark last year, this deal is eye-opening for both Austin and the Rams. With Baldwin getting paid $11 million-plus, there’s no question that could wind up being a number that Austin will look to at least match.
Dec 13, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Rams wide receiver Tavon Austin (11) warms up before the game between the St. Louis Rams and the Detroit Lions during the first half at the Edward Jones Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
That seems crazy on the surface, as Austin and Baldwin are two completely different wide receivers. Is the Rams receiver really worth more than $11 million per year? While Austin is a guy who can score from all over the field (rushing, receiving and returning), he broke the 1,000 total yard mark for just the first time last season.
Even with that being said, the Rams seem to think he is worth that much, as they will be paying him more than $12 million in 2017 after picking up his fifth-year option back in May. Fans may be disgusted with that number, as the $7-$8 million per year range would be a little easier to swallow.
RELATED:
What’s a realistic statistical expectation for Tavon Austin in 2016?
However, looking at smaller slot receivers who do similar things to Austin, Percy Harvin signed a deal worth almost $11 million a year in Seattle in 2013, and Randall Cobb signed a $10 million a year deal in 2015.
Both of those receivers had over 3,900 total yards in their careers at that point. Right now, Austin has just over 2,800 and if he puts up 1,100 total yards this season, he will be very comparable to Cobb and Harvin in that aspect.
While Doug Baldwin may not be an elite receiver, he certainly set the new market for the next wave of receivers in the NFL. The Seahawks paid up, which will mean Austin is likely going to be looking for at least that when he is eligible to sign an extension next season.
July 1, 2016 at 10:21 am #47600
znModeratorHere;s how I personally figure contracts. Teams can have up to 8-9 guys taking up 50% to at most 60% of the cap. (Ag I think does this differently.) Usually, though this is flexible, a top contract is 6+ M and up. (This will eventually lead to a point about Tavon.)
Here are Seattle’s top contracts for 2017.

There’s 9 guys there representing (about) 84.5 M. (“About” because I don’t really add up the 10s of thousands, just millions and hundreds of thousands. It’s actually probably a few hundred thousand higher.) Seattle’s key free agents in 2017 are not that significant. If the cap in 2017 is around 166 M, 84.5 M = around 50.9% of the cap.
Well okay what about Tavon.
The question is, does Tavon represent one of the 8-9 guys you want taking up 50-60% of the cap?
Here are other possibilities, starting with guys already under contract for 2017:

I assume Foles will be gone.
So that’s already 7 guys representing (as it stands now) around 60.5 M.
But by 2018 you have to add (at a minimum) Bryant, Brockers, McDonald, Johnson, Austin, Robinson, Alexander, Ogletree, and Donald (Donald and GR will be options in 2018).
So by 2018 you have to sort out who your top 8-9 guys are, and so far I have named 13: Barron, Quinn, Ogletree, Robinson, Goff, Saffold, Tavon, Bryant, Brockers, McDonald, Johnson, Alexander, and Donald.
So the big question is, do you see Tavon as one of your 8-9 top contract players for 2015? Bearing in mind that to reach 9 you have to subtract at least 4.
Then of course in the future there’s Gurley and Goff (who won’t be added, he will be getting more).
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July 1, 2016 at 10:30 am #47603
AgamemnonParticipantDoug Baldwin signed a 4 year, $46,000,000 contract with the Seattle Seahawks, years 2017-2020. salary = 11.5m/yr Cap ave = 183.5M Baldwin equals 6.3% of the cap.
Harvin got 5 years for 64.225M, 2014-2018. salary = 12.84m/yr Cap ave = 155.5M Harvin equals 8.3% of the cap.
Randall Cobb signed a 4 year, $40,000,000 contract with the Green Bay Packers, years 2015-2018. salary = 10m/yr Cap ave = 161.1M Cobb equals 6.1% of the cap.
a franchise WR gets 9.4% of the cap
Austin’s 5th year option is 12.268m in 2017. the Cap will be ~166M in 2017 Austin gets 7.4% of the cap
Givin all that 7.4% of the cap might be ok. imoJuly 1, 2016 at 10:42 am #47605
AgamemnonParticipantzn and I do stuff differently, but it usually ends up in the same time zone. 😉
I think the maximum number of players you can squeeze into the Cap is 10 players for 60% of the cap.
The dollar amounts change year by year. The percents stay the same.
2016 – $155.27 x 60% = 93.2 million
2017 – $166 x 60% = 99.6 million
2018 – $178 x 60% = 106.8 million
2019 – $190 x 60% = 114 million
2020 – $200 x 60% = 120 million
July 1, 2016 at 10:51 am #47606
AgamemnonParticipantI can name the players I would keep.
On offense: Goff at 13 % [franchise money]
I am not paying Robinson premium money, I will replace him with Williams or Battle.
Gurley at 7.6 % [franchise money]
Austin at 7.4 %, I have to keep my playmakers. [WR franchise money is 9.4%]
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On defense. Donald at 10.1 % [best player on defense money]
Quinn at 10.1 % [franchise money]
that is it. I have a QB and 4 unique talents. I am not worried about the rest. They will fit in somewhere. Next year, I only need to find $6-8 million dollars to keep everybody. imo
So, I have 5 guys at 48 % of the cap.
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Goff is still a question mark for me.
I am not paying Austin franchise WR money.
I hope Quinn is healthy.
In order: Donald, Gurley, Goff, Quinn, Austin.July 3, 2016 at 6:45 am #47705
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