Contract talks relevant to the futures of Donald & Goff

This topic has 3 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 9 months ago by zn.

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June 9, 2016 at 1:00 am #45674

zn
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Luck, Colts working toward blockbuster extension

http://www.theredzone.org/BlogDescription/tabid/61/EntryId/56890/Luck–Colts-working-toward-blockbuster-extension/Default.aspx

The Indianapolis Colts and quarterback Andrew Luck are making progress toward a blockbuster contract extension, sources say, with both sides still on track for July as the time of its likely completion, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.

Slowly, over the course of several conversations since February, the two sides have moved closer on the terms of a potential deal that would no doubt make Luck the highest-paid player in league history. Currently, that player is Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, who is earning $22.13 million per year on his extension. It’s highly unlikely Luck will accept anything below that.

There would be no surprise if Luck’s deal reached $25 million per year, given his age, productivity and leverage.

Luck is slated to make $16.155 million on his fifth-year option in 2016, the final year of his rookie deal. If there is no long-term deal, back-to-back exclusive franchise tags in 2017 and 2018 would net him $25 million and $35 million. That three-year, $76 million figure might serve as the basis for talks.

Tuesday in Indianapolis, Luck told NFL Media’s Kimberly Jones that he thinks his contract extension will get done.

“When it’s the right time, it will get done,” Luck told Jones. “I honestly don’t spend much time worrying about it.”

Colts owner Jim Irsay, meanwhile, told WISH-TV in Indianapolis in February that Luck’s deal would be “shocking.” It appears he was referring to both term and overall dollar figure. Irsay, sources say, originally wanted Luck under contract for 10 years — essentially a lifetime contract that would be a rarity in the NFL. Once the organization came off that offer and settled on a more realistic five-or-six-year offer, the gap closed.

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Report: Broncos contract talks with Von Miller reach impasse

http://www.theredzone.org/BlogDescription/tabid/61/EntryId/56887/Report–Broncos-contract-talks-with-Von-Miller-reach-impasse/Default.aspx

Contract talks between the Denver Broncos and their star linebacker Von Miller have snagged considerably, Mike Klis of 9News in Denver reports.

The Broncos set a deadline of 10 p.m. Tuesday to reach an agreement on a long-term contract with Miller, who was the MVP of the team’s Super Bowl 50 win in February.

Absent an agreement, the Broncos said they would withdraw their multiyear contract proposal, leaving Miller to play the 2016 season on his $14.129 million “exclusive” franchise tag. However, a Broncos source said Wednesday that talks have not “broken off.”

Miller said during a White House press conference Monday that “real progress” had been made in contract negotiations in recent days. And the two sides did reach a partial agreement on the years and total value of Miller’s proposed contract – six years worth a total value that slightly exceeded the $114.375 million Miami’s Ndamukong Suh ($19.06 million per year) received in 2015 to become the NFL’s highest-paid defensive player.

However, there are significant differences in how the proposals are structured. The key component to NFL contracts is the guaranteed dollars, particularly within the first three years of any deal.

The Broncos’ deadline was surprising considering the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement gives teams until July 15 to work out a multiyear contract extension with franchised tag players, the Broncos moved up their deadline with Miller because they wanted him to attend the team’s minicamp this week.

June 9, 2016 at 2:05 am #45681

zn
Moderator

Why this matters.

Some day, both Donald and Goff will have new contracts.

Usually teams have around 8-9, sometimes 10, guys who take up 50% to say 55%, 56% of the cap.

So let;s use the 2019 cap, and let’s say (with no evidence) that by 2019 the cap is 180 M. 50% of that has to go to that 8-9 guys. That;s 90 M of they hypothetical 180 M.

Well at that point, the average cap hit for a starting qb in his 2nd year will probably be around 22-25 M. Donald, in turn, is not only going to become one of the highest paid DTs in the league (and right now with Suh that’s 19 M), he will be able to command an offer for one of the highest paid DEFENDERS in the league, regardless of position. In a couple of years that will probably be around 21-22 M.

So already, you’re talking about 43-47 M a year (leaving structure out of it for now) for just 2 guys.

Barron already is averaging around 10 M and Quinn is already averaging around 12 M.

So some day just for those 4, it’s 65-69 M.

(Assuming they’re all here but this isn’t a prediction it’s a rough look at what would be the case if they ARE all here.)

Usually other top contracts, the already-mentioned 8-9 guys types, get anywhere from 6-7 M to 10 M.

And think who has to come up for longterm deals before then. Johnson, Austin, Ogletree, Robinson, McDondold, and possibly Gaines. And Gurley. And who knows yet who else.

I already named 4 of the 8-9 (Goff, Donald, Barron, Quinn). That’s 7 more. So it won’t be all 7. But let’s say it’s 5. Let;s imagine that averages out to 9 M per player. That means you add 45 M or so to 43-47 M. That’s somewhere around 88-92 M. That’s your “around 50%” of a 180 M cap (if it even is 180 M by then).

IMO we have to get used to seeing a guy or 2 walk every year.

…

June 9, 2016 at 5:36 am #45687

Agamemnon
Participant

http://overthecap.com/calculator/los-angeles-rams/
This will do the math for you, if you want to look at projections.

The Rams hit that point this year. They had to let a couple guys go that they wanted to keep, Jenkins and McCleod. When that happens they will have to replace the talent losses by using the draft, FAs, udras, comp picks, and trades.

In 2019, the Rams have 3 players under contract.

They will also have the draft class from this year after they sign them.

By 2019 the roster will be who they drafted in 2016, 17, 18, and 19, plus whoever they can keep or acquire by other methods.

Agamemnon

June 9, 2016 at 8:42 am #45706

zn
Moderator

zn wrote:

IMO we have to get used to seeing a guy or 2 walk every year.

Agamemnon wrote:

The Rams hit that point this year. They had to let a couple guys go that they wanted to keep, Jenkins and McCleod

Yeah see I was thinking that. Every signing now means more money against the 2019 cap.

Though, in other discussons of this, while I stressed 2019 here, IMO 2018 is critical too, because they ought to have signed Donald by then. 2018 is his 5th option year, and they either extend him then or before then, or he becomes a market FA. If he becomes a unrestricted FA, it is entirely possible the price of the deal goes way up as teams compete for him.

Another way to look at it is who do you want in your “top 8-9” in 2019, which is what I did here. So far it’s 4 … Quinn, Barron, Goff, Donald. That’s 19 M (Barron/Quinn), 22 M? Goff, 21 M? Donald, which is 62 M (I know my numbers are slightly different in the post above, I am just guesstimating it slightly differently this time). But they have to sign guys by then and will have to choose a top 8 or 9. Meaning, every guy who comes up (Tree? Tavon? GR?) you have to ask, is he one of the 2019 8-9 players in our 50% club?

I don’t count Hekker as a 8-9 club guy…his deal is not big enough to count toward that. When I look at what teams do, I have putting the 8-9 limit at 6+M so far.

Here’s Seattle;s way of handling that, this year:

This year, that’s about 90.4 in 10 guys, which is about 58.7% of this year’s 153.9 M cap.

That’s why they had to let Okung walk and traded Unger. They needed a priority list and those 2 didn’t make it, according to how they want to do things.

When you get past the 2 big contracts (Wilson, Sherman) with the remaining 8 guys, it goes from 9.9 M to 6+ M, averaging around 7.1 M per.

Donald + Goff in 2019 ought to cost more by a few million than Wilson + Sherman (33.3 M) do now for Seattle.
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