Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Rams Huddle › Later-round gems can be found at receiver, even in 'down' years
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April 23, 2016 at 8:52 am #42452AgamemnonParticipant
Later-round gems can be found at receiver, even in ‘down’ years
Bob McGinn April 21, 2016
Green Bay — As bleak as the outlook might be at wide receiver and tight end in the NFL draft this year, some players will seep from the cracks and go on to have unexpected success.
The top teams will find the gems. The poor teams will cry woe is me and not seize the moment.
Several times over the years, Ted Thompson has pooh-poohed storm warnings about a position group that supposedly was bereft of talent. There always are players, the general manager of the Green Bay Packers is fond of saying, and we’re paid to dig them out.
Take 2008, when for the first time in 18 years not one wide receiver was selected in the first round. Six were taken among the first 15 choices of the second round, but only Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson has gone on to stardom.
Nelson, with 400 career receptions, has fewer than DeSean Jackson (442), a late second-round pick that year, and Pierre Garcon, who turned a sixth-round selection into 485 grabs.
Two years before that, one wide receiver was chosen in the first round. “You might get as good a guy in the fourth round as you would in the first,” Bill Polian, then-president of the Indianapolis Colts, said in April 2006.
Santonio Holmes, the lone first-rounder, was MVP of the 43rd Super Bowl. In terms of numbers, however, Holmes’ 389 receptions are dwarfed by the 882 of Brandon Marshall, the fourth-rounder Polian might have been alluding to, or Greg Jennings (571, second round) and Marques Colston (711, seventh round).
How about 1990, another year when there wasn’t a wide receiver in the first round? Terance Mathis came out of New Mexico in the sixth round that year and finished his career with 689 catches.
In ’92, another year when personnel people bemoaned the lack of wide receivers, Jimmy Smith made 862 catches for Jacksonville as a second-round selection and Robert Brooks chimed in with 309 during an injury-shortened career as the Packers’ third-round choice.
The last five drafts have been a bonanza at the position with at least one single-digit pick each year. A.J. Green and Julio Jones in 2011, Odell Beckham and Mike Evans in ’12 and Amari Cooper a year ago are among names that will dominate on the perimeter for years.
The last thin wide-receiver draft was supposed to be 2010. No wideout was taken until the 22nd pick.
But look at the producers that draft contained. Besides Demaryius Thomas (456 catches) and Dez Bryant (412) in the first round, Antonio Brown (526) was there in the sixth round for the Steelers three rounds after they took Emmanuel Sanders (338).
This year, there might not be a wide receiver in the first round. Several personnel men said there isn’t a legitimate No. 1 receiver.
“It’s just a bad group,” an NFC personnel director said. “There’s not one sure thing.”
The Journal Sentinel asked 19 scouts this month to rank their favorite wide receivers from 1 to 5. A first-place vote was worth five points, a second was worth four and so on.
Laquon Treadwell, with eight firsts and 70 points, claimed a tight three-way race over Josh Doctson (64, six) and Corey Coleman (60, three). Will Fuller was a close fourth (43, two).
After that, there’s a gap to Michael Thomas (17), Tyler Boyd (16) and Sterling Shepard (13). Two players, Braxton Miller and Keyarris Garrett, each had one point.
The remark made by one scout about the current crop — “just a bunch of guys” — brings to mind adjectives used by personnel men before the ’10 draft that had a franchise receiver such as Antonio Brown sitting in the sixth round. They described that class of wideouts as “yuck,” “awful,” “bad” and “poor.”
As one scout put it, who will be this year’s Amari Cooper?
“It’s a manufactured position now,” he said. “The ball is thrown so much these days, sometimes you get a picture that’s not really there.
“There will be some guys that didn’t play in the right offenses and didn’t get the ball and didn’t look like the (top) guys. That’s why you have Antonio Brown and Colston and Jordy Nelson.”
Hunter Henry of Arkansas drew 18 of 19 first-place votes in the Journal Sentinel’s poll of leading tight ends. Each scout was asked to list the top four players at the position.
One point short of unanimous, Henry totaled 75 points to 40 (one first) for Austin Hooper and 38 for Nick Vannett. Jerell Adams (20) was a solid fourth.
Other vote-getters were Tyler Higbee, eight; Temarrick Hemingway, three; Ryan Malleck and Beau Sandland, two; and Stephen Anderson and Henry Krieger-Coble, one.
The 2013 draft produced four terrific players in Tyler Eifert, Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed and Zach Ertz. The last two drafts have been ordinary, and this might be worse.
“It’s just such a really, really hard position now,” an NFC personnel director said. “People thought they’d get something out of (Eric) Ebron and (Austin) Seferian-Jenkins two years ago that were disappointments.
“Colleges are not really producing any (Mark) Chmuras or (Jason) Wittens anymore.”
Still, there usually are good players to be had.
What was regarded as a weak tight-end group in 2007 yielded Greg Olsen (542 receptions) in the first round, Zach Miller (328) in the second and Brent Celek (371) in the fifth.
The same wailing was heard about the tight ends in 2011 but out popped Kyle Rudolph (182) in the second round and two starters, Julius Thomas (155) and Jordan Cameron (165), in the fourth.
Odds are that someone will come out of the pack and become the next Antonio Gates or Heath Miller. It’s just the way it always is.
April 23, 2016 at 9:14 am #42455AgamemnonParticipantApril 23, 2016 at 9:23 am #42456wvParticipant“It’s just a bad group,” an NFC personnel director said. “There’s not one sure thing.”
—————————-Well i think that is the key statement right there.
The pundits/experts tend to say its a ‘bad group’
when what they really should say is ‘there’s no sure thing’.
The two statements are different.There will be QBs and WR’s found in the later rounds
that do well but there wont be many. The trick is picking them.Maybe the rams can sign Cordarelle ? 🙂
w
vApril 23, 2016 at 9:49 am #42458AgamemnonParticipant“It’s just a bad group,” an NFC personnel director said. “There’s not one sure thing.”
—————————-Well i think that is the key statement right there.
The pundits/experts tend to say its a ‘bad group’
when what they really should say is ‘there’s no sure thing’.
The two statements are different.There will be QBs and WR’s found in the later rounds
that do well but there wont be many. The trick is picking them.Maybe the rams can sign Cordarelle ?
w
vThe Vikings would have to cut him. He is till under his 4 year rookie contract.
April 23, 2016 at 10:16 am #42460AgamemnonParticipantApril 23, 2016 at 10:51 am #42462znModeratorWhat are the percentages on getting a receiver in rounds 4-7? (I know they don’t have a 7th but they’re fair game with their 2 6th rounders.)
Remembering of course that this draft is deeper than most, they say, just not as star-studded at the top.
I did a decade, ending in 2013. So 2004-13.
Out of 184 drafted, I counted 2 tiers: very good to good to fairly decent hits, and then serviceable, active “okay” guys (like Brandon Gibson).
TIER ONE: Marshall, Colston, Brown, Cotchery, Garcon, Edelman, Buffalo’s Steven Johnson (who was good for a couple of years there), Hartline, Avant, Breaston, Mike Williams (Tampa)…so that’s 12.
TIER TWO: I count around 17 guys.
Percentages…
Tier 1: 6.5%
Tier 2: 9.2%
Total: 15.7%Going back to 1967 Rams have hit on 3 receivers in rounds 4 and below: Harold Jackson, Hakim, and Drew Hill.
April 23, 2016 at 11:22 am #42465AgamemnonParticipantI think in this draft, picking at 110 and 113, the Rams have a better than usual chance of getting a player. ? let’s double it. After that(? ~200-udfas), I think we have to go to the pile method, bring as many bodies as you can and hope you find something. That is also a tipping point where it becomes possible to trade up and get some value that way. Say, there is someone your really like at 90-100, etc.
In the 6th round we might want to draft, WR MITCH MATHEWS BRIGHAM YOUNG and the German Unicorn.
Maybe we can’t find a tier 1 guy, but we only have one WR under contract for 2017, Marquez.
- This reply was modified 8 years, 7 months ago by Agamemnon.
April 23, 2016 at 10:52 pm #42495InvaderRamModeratorthe german unicorn. his short shuttle and 3 cone times are ridiculous. 4.10 and 6.64. decent arm length at 32 5/8″. combine that with a 39″ vertical and his catch radius should be huge. still only 22 years old.
i wonder if he could last until the fourth round. if he does, i’d say swing for the fences.
April 23, 2016 at 11:28 pm #42497InvaderRamModeratornot a wide receiver. but my friend who’s a big ucla fan likes thomas duarte. not much of a blocker but can really catch the ball.
solid athletic numbers. long 33″ arms and 10″ hands.
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