From Peter King
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/10/will-smith-murder-new-orleans-saints-nfl
Chasing ghosts in the NFL draft
With the first round of the draft two-and-a-half weeks away, and most teams still in their draft-grading bunkers, there’s not a lot of horse trading going on right now. So this is no time for the truth. This is the time, as Gil Brandt said Saturday, “for chasing ghosts.”
Brandt would know. This is the 56th draft for Brandt, either as a picker (for Dallas) or a league official who’s the unofficial godfather of the draft process—going to workouts, being the point of contact between draftees and the league, and talking to teams, agents and players. There’s not anyone who knows more about the picks and those making them than Brandt.
An example of ghost-chasing, from Brandt: “So Philadelphia’s working out all the quarterbacks, and visiting with all the quarterbacks. Is it true they want a quarterback? Could they pick a quarterback in the first round? Or is it a smokescreen and they’ve got it in their minds to pick someone else? Could they pick the running back [Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott] there?”
Over the weekend, I spoke with 10 team officials with power over their team’s draft board and draft process. Three of them are in the middle of their process; they finished one side of the ball Friday, and will finalize their boards on the other side of the ball beginning today. So it’s a myth that the hay’s in the barn for every team right now. One GM I talked to Saturday was going to spend Sunday in his bunker, studying tape of the top 10 quarterbacks. This is why we’re in ghost-chasing time. We all think we know what Philadelphia’s going to do with the eighth pick in the first round, and maybe even Eagles GM Howie Roseman has a good idea of what he’s going to do with the pick, but with 17 days before he has to exercise that pick, why wouldn’t he still be looking at players, discussing internally what to do, and waiting on the medical re-check of some draftees Thursday and Friday in Indianapolis?
So I thought what I’d do this morning is give you what I picked up over the weekend from the 10 Men In The Draft Bunkers.
Three questions first:
Who do you think will be the first player picked in the draft?
Eight of the 10 evaluators said Mississippi tackle Laremy Tunsil. One split his vote between Tunsil and Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey. The other said Tennessee will trade, and a team will move up to pick North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz.
Who will be the first quarterback picked?
Seven votes for Wentz. Three votes for Cal quarterback Jared Goff.
What team is most likely to trade into the top five of the first round?
Rams: four votes. Eagles: three votes. Bucs: one vote. Niners: one vote. One vote went to no team. “Price is too high,” this person said. “I don’t see anyone trading into the top five.”
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Speculation and rumors, 17 days from D-Day
• Myles Jack is in play in the top 10, but his medical recheck is big. A knee injury shelved Jack for most of his 2015 season at UCLA, but two teams in the top 10 (and maybe more) are anxiously awaiting the result from his Indianapolis re-check. He’s the kind of sideline-to-sideline playmaker that would interest Jacksonville at No. 5 if he checks out well.
• Regarding the Titans at 1. New GM Jon Robinson hosts Jalen Ramsey today in Nashville for a visit, and there’s definite interest there, with defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau thought to like the versatility of Ramsey for Tennessee’s barren secondary. One personnel man said over the weekend the Titans have a definite solid offer for the pick and, if it’s sweetened, could be persuaded to go down a few spots. Which team? Philly’s the common team, because Roseman trades, and going from eight to one is onerous but possible in terms of price tag. “But no team’s going to do three ones, the way Washington did for RG3,” said one evaluator. “No player in this draft is worth that.”
• Regarding the Browns at 2. Last week, I heard Wentz strongly at this pick. This weekend, one of my panelists said: “It’s definitely Goff. Believe it.” Next week, could it be Brian Sipe? But I will say this about the pick: Goff’s the name I hear coming out of that building right now. We’ll see.
• The strength of the draft. Middle-class draft. Read these quotes from four of my evaluators:
“Twenty-five to 55 is the same player, to me.”
“Eleven to 40 is the same guy.”
“To us, 18 to 48 you can get the same player.”
“Load me up with twos and threes in this draft. That’s where I’d want a lot of picks.”
And get this, from Gil Brandt: “It’s the kind of draft where the 50th player on some team’s board will be the 17th player on another team, and the 17th player on the first team could be the 50th on that other team.”
• Robert Nkemdiche’s the true wild card in this draft. One guy put it best about the Ole Miss defensive tackle with top-five talent and top-five off-field issues: “There’s not that much special talent in this draft. He’s special, potentially. Coaches with security will take a chance on a guy like this with such good tools.” I heard like things from a couple of others—namely, that Nkemdiche is a very likely first-round pick, though it may be late. Maybe a Pete Carroll (Seattle picks 26th) or Bruce Arians (Arizona picks 29th) will feel confident enough, with the kind of strong locker room each has, to put Nkemdiche in the mix. He’s articulate, he’s an artist, he plays the saxophone. He’s a tough riddle.
• The Eagles and a quarterback? Don’t dismiss it. Look at my first Factoid of the Week lower in the column, about the guaranteed money on the contracts of Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel, and you’ll see why it’s not ridiculous for Philadelphia to be thinking quarterback high in this draft.
• On the quarterbacks. Even this far out, the lines are drawn here: Goff and Wentz in the top five, Paxton Lynch in the teens, Connor Cook around 30 and then it’s anyone’s guess. One evaluator: “I would love to take a shot at developing Christian Hackenberg.” Another: “Hackenberg’s fractured.”
• Other draft niblets, in three-dot fashion: Talked to two men who like Notre Dame tackle Ronnie Stanley over Tunsil … “Best defensive tackle draft I’ve seen, easy,” said one veteran evaluator … I love the individuality of teams’ grades. I asked a few guys which first-round pick will shock the world on April 28. And one evaluator said he wasn’t positive this man would go in the first round, but said he definitely has first-round talent: Alabama back Kenyan Drake, who backed up Heisman winner Derrick Henry. Great straight–line speed … “The defensive tackle crop’s so good it’ll push some deserving players into the second round. The depth is so good that you’ll get some guys you can use right away in the third and fourth.” … I love this, too, reading various front offices from afar. One guy: “San Francisco will not trade up from seven. Trent Baalke loves his picks too much and has too many needs to give them away.” Another guy: “They want to trade Anthony Davis and Antoine Bethea.” … Interesting analysis out of one evaluator, who sees 90 early defensive starters in this draft, and 40 offensive starters. “Ninety’s a huge number,” he said … Much love for Notre Dame linebacker Jalen Smith, who has nerve damage in his knee from an injury in the Fiesta Bowl. No idea where he’ll be picked … Much love for Ezekiel Elliott too. But a running back, at four (Dallas)? Or anywhere that high? My evaluators think that’s too high, but beauty’s in the eye of the Joneses. We’ll see.
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Agamemnon
