the 10 teams who traded up for quarterbacks the last 10 years

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  • #41179
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    A review of the 10 teams who traded up for quarterbacks the last 10 years

    JIMMY KEMPSKI

    http://www.phillyvoice.com/review-10-teams-who-traded-quarterbacks-last-10-years/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=mediahorizonsTW&utm_content=032716_QuarterbackReview

    Over the last week, a few rumors have emerged that the Eagles could be interested in trading up for a quarterback, more specifically, North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz.

    The perception about trading up for quarterbacks has become that the cost has to be extraordinarily high. That’s because in 2012, the Redskins traded the sixth-overall pick, the 39th-overall pick, their 2013 first-round pick, and their 2014 first-round pick for Robert Griffin III.

    The Redskins altered expectations of what draft compensation should be when trading up for a quarterback, because they’re the Redskins and they’re stupid. However, it doesn’t have to be that bad.

    Over the last 10 drafts, 10 teams have traded up to draft a quarterback in the first round. Here is what they had to give up:

    Year Trade-up team got Trade-back team got
    2014 Browns – Johnny Manziel at pick 22 Eagles – 26th- and 83rd-overall picks
    2014 Vikings – Teddy Bridgewater at pick 32 Seahawks – 40th- and 108th-overall picks
    2012 Redskins – Robert Griffin III at pick 2 Rams – 6th- and 39th-overall picks, 2013 first-round pick, and 2014 first-round pick
    2011 Jaguars – Blaine Gabbert at pick 10 Redskins – 16th- and 49th-overall picks
    2010 Broncos – Tim Tebow at pick 25 Ravens – 43rd-, 70th-, and 114th-overall picks
    2009 Jets – Mark Sanchez at pick 5 Browns – 17th- and 52nd-overall picks, Kenyon Coleman, Brett Ratliff and Abram Elam
    2009 Buccaneers – Josh Freeman at pick 17 Browns – 19th- and 191st-overall picks
    2008 Ravens – Joe Flacco at pick 18 Texans – 26th-, 89th-, and 173th-overall picks
    2007 Browns – Brady Quinn at pick 22 Cowboys – 36th-overall pick, 2008 first-round pick
    2006 Broncos – Jay Cutler at pick 11 Rams – 15th- and 68th-overall picks

    As you can see, the cost to trade up for a quarterback doesn’t have to be exorbitantly high. Certainly, none of the above trades compare at all to what the Redskins gave up to select Griffin. Of course, the Redskins had to trade up to the second-overall pick to get him, which obviously raises the cost.

    A decent comparison from the Eagles’ perspective, sitting at eighth overall might be the Jets’ move to trade up from 17 to 5 to select Mark Sanchez. In that deal, all they had to give up was a second-round pick and three non-impact players.

    If the Titans, for example, who are sitting at the first overall pick don’t see a huge difference between the top positional player in this draft and who they might get at eighth overall, it might make sense for them to move back at a cost that would wouldn’t require Redskins-level stupidity. Of course, that may also require a lack of extreme interest in Wentz or Jared Goff from other teams drafting in the top 10.

    #41183
    Avatar photoAgamemnon
    Participant

    As you can see, the cost to trade up for a quarterback doesn’t have to be exorbitantly high.

    I just read that the QB hit rate in round 2 and round 3 is 26%. The answer is to trade up in the first round, so I can get to the 30% range?

    Agamemnon

    #41184
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    The answer is to trade up in the first round, so I can get to the 30% range?

    It depends on your measure I guess (which years? How far back? Etc.) but I found a much higher hit rate for the 1st round.

    I did 2004-2014, which (with a year added) corresponds to the years for my 2nd and 3rd round qb search.

    From 2004 to 2014, out of 31 1st round qbs, I got 15 hits: Rivers, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Eli, Ryan, Cutler, Newton, Flacco, Smith, Stafford, Luck, Tannenhill, Bradford, Bridgewater, and Bortles.

    Granted we really don’t know about a couple of those yet. But either way, my list brings it to 48.4%.

    #41185
    Avatar photoAgamemnon
    Participant

    The answer is to trade up in the first round, so I can get to the 30% range?

    It depends on your measure I guess (which years? How far back? Etc.) but I found a much higher hit rate for the 1st round.

    I did 2004-2014, which (with a year added) corresponds to the years for my 2nd and 3rd round qb search.

    From 2004 to 2014, out of 31 1st round qbs, I got 15 hits: Rivers, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Eli, Ryan, Cutler, Newton, Flacco, Smith, Stafford, Luck, Tannenhill, Bradford, Bridgewater, and Bortles.

    Granted we really don’t know about a couple of those yet. But either way, my list brings it to 48.4%.

    Ok, I can take one roll at 50% or 2 rolls at 25%, one first round pick or a pick in round 2 and a pick in round 3.

    How about one roll at 50% without trading up?

    Agamemnon

    #41186
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    The answer is to trade up in the first round, so I can get to the 30% range?

    It depends on your measure I guess (which years? How far back? Etc.) but I found a much higher hit rate for the 1st round.

    I did 2004-2014, which (with a year added) corresponds to the years for my 2nd and 3rd round qb search.

    From 2004 to 2014, out of 31 1st round qbs, I got 15 hits: Rivers, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Eli, Ryan, Cutler, Newton, Flacco, Smith, Stafford, Luck, Tannenhill, Bradford, Bridgewater, and Bortles.

    Granted we really don’t know about a couple of those yet. But either way, my list brings it to 48.4%.

    Ok, I can take one roll at 50% or 2 rolls at 25%, one first round pick or a pick in round 2 and a pick in round 3.

    How about one roll at 50% without trading up?

    I didn’t look at the pick. Let’s do the same period but divide it between picks 1-12, and then picks 13-32. Just for starters.

    Okay of those 31 qbs across that period:

    20 were from picks 1-12, and of those, 12 were hits. 60%.

    11 were from picks 13-32, and of those, 3 were hits (Flacco, Rodgers, Bridgewater). 27%. Basically the same as rounds 2-3.

    #41189
    PA Ram
    Participant

    Lots of rumors about the Eagles trading up for Goff or even Wentz.

    They seem to be collecting QBs. Maybe it’s a smokescreen.

    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away. " Philip K. Dick

    #41191
    Avatar photoAgamemnon
    Participant

    That gets us to 60% vs 50% by devaluing 2 thirds of the first round to the equivalent of second and third round picks. I would think it is a sort of glitch in data that things seem to plateau like that. Maybe we need a bigger sample. You would think picks 13-32 are worth more than picks 33 to 96. Meanwhile, the price to trade up increases exponentially.

    Agamemnon

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