on the Browns: History shows teams with new coordinator, quarterback struggle

from History shows teams with new coordinator, quarterback will struggle

Pat McManamon, ESPN Staff Writer

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ESPN Stats & Information did a study of the past three NFL seasons, evaluating how teams fared with both a new offensive coordinator and a new quarterback.

For clarity’s sake, it used the criteria that a team had a new coordinator and a different opening day starter from the previous season.

Thirteen teams went through that kind of change the past three years (including the Browns in 2014 and 2012). Those 13 teams won 87 games combined, an average of 6.7 per season.

Their average rank in points per game: 22nd in the league. Ten of the 13 were in the bottom half of the league in scoring, nine were lower than 20th, and one ranked 30th.

Only two of the 13 teams (15 percent) went to the playoffs — the Indianapolis Colts in 2012 after they drafted Andrew Luck and the Kansas City Chiefs when Alex Smith led the team to an 11-5 record in 2013.

Luck was a once-in-a-generation draft pick, and Smith had one of his best seasons in 2013.

The numbers show that not only is the challenge significant when there’s significant change in personnel and systems, but also a team needs an extreme occurrence to have success.

The Browns are banking on their defense being one of the best in the league, but to overcome the challenge of the change on offense, that defense has to be like the ’85 Bears or 2000 Ravens.

Consider, too, that the Browns aren’t just changing their quarterback and their system. They’re also changing their quarterbacks coach and both starting receivers.

Dwayne Bowe was in Kansas City in 2014, and Brian Hartline was in Miami. Both are talented players, but every quarterback who works with new receivers talks about the adjustment period that needs to take place within the group.

Can it work? It can.

But the hard, cold numbers show that the Browns have a serious uphill climb to make it work, and the trends are against them.