Goff: the December thread

Can Rams quarterback Jared Goff execute under pressure?

Jourdan Rodrigue & Sheil Kapadia

https://theathletic.com/2240981/2020/12/08/rams-jared-goff-under-pressure/?source=emp_shared_article

There are a lot of myths around the NFL. If you’re a fan of the show “MythBusters,” you might enjoy how we’ve decided to examine football myths this week. We’re using the show’s template to poke holes in some of the NFL’s biggest myths. Read the full series here.

Watching the Jared Goff experience each week has drawn the same question from the Rams’ fan base and NFL pundits: Can the quarterback execute under pressure?

Just when we think we have Goff pegged one way — like after his four-turnover performance in Week 8 against Miami’s aggressive Cover 0 blitz — he dazzles in his next two games against Seattle and Tampa Bay and throws for nearly 700 yards and three touchdowns, beating a heavy blitz quite handily along the way.

In fact, we might be posing the question too broadly. Instead of asking whether Goff can execute under pressure, we might be better off asking what kind of pressure causes Goff to fold — and what he’s good against. So we dove into all things “Goff,” from his game tape up until Week 13, to his career advanced metrics against various forms of pressure, to those who work with him most closely.

— Jourdan Rodrigue

The witnesses

• Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell on how Goff responds to four-man pressure versus five-plus: “I think you look at it a little bit more detailed, in that it’s a four-man rush — but what kind of coverage is it? Is it zone coverage? Is it man coverage? Are they trying to double team one of our primary receivers? There’s a lot that goes into it, from the kind of four-man rush it is and the coverage structure behind it, versus when they’re bringing pressures and there’s only five (or) six defensive backs or coverage players left (downfield).

“I think when teams are bringing four, that’s when the discipline of the quarterback doing his job, snap in and snap out, (needs to show up). Footwork, progressions, pocket movement, ball security within the pocket — all of those things get tested when they’re seven or more sometimes in coverage (meaning a defense is rushing four) and you may have to hold the ball, or a No. 1 (progression) may not be open. Progressing through the down, competing through the down all while maintaining that ball security, is really what playing quarterback in the NFL is all about.”

• Rams head coach Sean McVay, before last week’s loss to San Francisco, on how Goff executed well against blitz pressure after the catastrophic Miami game: “There was never a question of whether he was capable of handling it that way or not. … He and Kevin have done a great job getting prepared, having ownership of the plan, and then ultimately, when those situations and scenarios present themselves, let’s go make a play, let’s execute, let’s have great communication among your teammates. …

“And that’s exactly what he’s done, really, in each of the last two weeks in those specific moments. I think it has been imperative for us to be efficient offensively, and I’m very pleased with that. Now we have to see it continue.”

• Adam Dedeaux, co-founder of 3DQB, where Goff trains in the offseason, on what Goff worked on this spring: “One thing Jared had to do a lot of (in 2019) was throw off his back foot. Some of that was related to his footwork, which we wanted to clean up. Some of it was related to that understanding that he didn’t have the same space and time (to throw) that maybe he had been accustomed to, and that this year was going to be no different. We worked on the mechanics of how to be able to throw off of the back foot but not lose any of the velocity or take any more off of the arm. And then also, when you’re forced to move and you find yourself on your front foot, how do you throw off your front foot?”

— Rodrigue

The film

When operating McVay’s scheme, throwing in rhythm and quickly identifying the target, Goff can play a beautiful brand of quarterbacking. He throws his targets open with anticipation and pinpoint accuracy when he has time in the pocket and a clear window. But Goff’s lack of mobility creates a true mystery, and, along with some perplexing tendencies, yields the high-variance outings we see every week.

Watching Goff’s film reveals a myth and a truth. The myth is that Goff crumbles against blitzes altogether, which is untrue. His film is rife with examples of Goff standing tall in the face of five, six or even seven rushers and delivering on time to his target. Even if the pressure is coming from the edges, Goff has shown he can climb the pocket and stay calm. However, it is imperative that the Rams’ interior offensive linemen and pass-protecting running back frequently communicate and work as one. If they do not, and the pressure breaks through the middle, that’s where the truth of the film comes into play. Goff struggles against most interior pressure that breaks through, and not just when defenses call a blitz against him.

If Goff isn’t staying on script, he lacks the true improvisational ability that takes other quarterbacks to the next level. Goff has an outright aversion to taking sacks even when it’s the best option at times. When under that type of pressure, he’ll often sacrifice his footwork just to get the ball out of his hands. One way he does so is by swinging his hip open and his front foot to the side, causing his passes to sail and giving the defense a huge interception opportunity.

He’ll also shift his weight back and throw off his back foot, which is bad form. There are some examples of Goff spinning out of pressures or escaping and finding a target downfield (see: vs. Chicago in Week 7, vs. Tampa Bay in Week 11). However, that is not the norm and he doesn’t have the elusiveness to do so consistently.

The Rams’ savvy emphasis is a quick-passing style to play to his strengths, and rollouts to the right to alleviate pressure on the quarterback. Otherwise, defenses would blitz the Rams more regularly and Goff wouldn’t have those spike games nearly as often.

— Joe Buscaglia

The numbers

To try to answer this question, we’ll use expected points added (EPA) from Sports Info Solutions. You can learn more about EPA here, or just view it as a metric that measures performance on every play.

Entering Week 13, Goff averaged minus-0.63 EPA per play when pressured. That ranked 29th out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks. He had produced a positive result just 30.3 percent of the time when pressured. That ranked 25th.

But we know every quarterback performs worse when pressured. The question with Goff is whether pressure negatively affects him more than it does most quarterbacks. And the numbers suggest the answer is yes.

Goff had a difference of 0.93 EPA per play when pressured versus not pressured. That was the second-highest difference of any starting quarterback, behind only the Raiders’ Derek Carr. Said more simply: He goes from being the ninth-best quarterback in the league without pressure to 29th with pressure.

Looking at Goff’s performance over the last four years, it has been a consistent issue. He’s never performed better than league average when pressured.

What about Goff’s performance against the blitz? The numbers suggest he’s actually been really good when opponents send five or more rushers. Goff’s 56.3 percent success rate against the blitz was tied for third best entering Sunday’s game against the Cardinals, according to Sportradar. That’s actually slightly better than his 53.4 percent success rate when teams rushed four or fewer. It’s worth noting it appears to be an area in which he has really improved. Goff’s success rate against the blitz from 2017-19 was 46.7 percent. Last season, it was 41.6 percent, which ranked 23rd.

— Sheil Kapadia

The verdict

Rodrigue: The “myth” about Goff has proven to be half-true. As it stands, Goff is executing well specifically against designed blitz pressure, and in part, that seems to be because his earlier reads are available when the Rams’ offense has the mathematical advantage downfield, with more defenders coming in to rush. But against standard pressure, Goff’s journey has been more of a roller-coaster experience than a leisurely drive up Pacific Coast Highway in a station wagon. The Rams are in danger of being too susceptible to standard pressure for that reason — if opponents only have to send four, receivers can be well-covered downfield and Goff can be forced to go through his progressions more often.

Buscaglia: There are no absolutes with Goff against pressure. On film, he has shown an occasional ability to make positive plays in the face of pressure. The problem is they are so sporadic that they doesn’t dissuade teams from sending different blitz packages to try to rattle him, and that’s what makes it a big issue for the Rams. Opponents can negatively impact Goff by getting him to change his footwork and, at times, forcing him to make a reckless decision because he lacks the elusiveness to evade tackles and is so averse to taking sacks. It all depends on the type of pressure running at Goff as well. His usual struggles are against interior pressure of any kind, not only against the blitz. Simple math makes defenses want to blitz against Goff to heighten their odds of getting home, although a savvy defensive tackle or a successful stunt between the end and tackle will do the trick all the same. If a defender is bearing down on Goff in the pocket, he usually isn’t getting out of it. So, while Goff can do well against pressure at times, more often than not, teams are making him pay with at best, an incompletion, or at worst, a back-breaking interception that changes the game.

Kapadia: There’s a significant dip in Goff’s performance when pressured. It’s fair to say pressure negatively impacts him more than almost every other starter. There are two ways for opponents to take advantage of that weakness. One is to cook up effective blitz schemes, but Goff has shown he can burn opponents when those blitzes don’t get home. And the other is to produce pressure with four, which is obviously the preferred method, but easier said than done.

Our decision: Plausible
Goff has consistently broken down against normal pressure, but we also have found notable improvements against blitz pressure, which he’s able to beat regularly.

aeneas1

lest some of us forget, it hasn’t exactly been a shit-show whenever goff’s been pressured, regardless of what talking heads have aped…

==============
“Goff had a difference of 0.93 EPA per play when pressured versus not pressured. That was the second-highest difference of any starting quarterback, behind only the Raiders’ Derek Carr. Said more simply: He goes from being the ninth-best quarterback in the league without pressure to 29th with pressure.
=============
“lacks the true improvisational ability
=====================
“…the high-variance outings we see every week.
==============

He’s an odd-one, that Goff. I dont think we’ve ever seen one quite like him.
He’s a ‘high-variance’ QB.

He’s made throws on a regular basis that are just beautiful. Needle-threaders.
Perfectly placed in tight-windows. All over the field. And on the move.

And then there’s those other times.

I really dont know what to make of it. Never seen anything quite like it before.

The best thing he has going for him is he’s such a hard worker and committed to being the best. And then there’s McVay who knows him better than anyone. So McVay tries to play to his strengths.

And now we got the evil-genius coming to town. They coach who made Goff look awful in the super bowl.

Interesting QB. Interesting game.

w
v

The only thing that gives me hope is Cam Newton. I have never believed in that guy.

Is Goff “really” the 24th ranked qb? IMO that ranking is weighted by the 3 bad games.

If you believe he’s going to have another bad game like those 3, then, the avg. qb rating WITH those 3 games will sound accurate to you.

If you DON’T believe he’s going to have another bad game like those 3 then, you believe he is more likely to play like his average in the other 10 games–which is a qb rating of 100.65, which would rank 10th.

I personally believe that both Goff and McVay have learned enough from the 3 bad games so that no, we will not see another one.

Meanwhile this season the Rams played 6 defenses that are ranked top 12 in offensive points allowed (Miami, New England, Washington, Giants, Chicago, Tampa) and they went 5-1 in those games.

Do you do that with the 24th ranked qb? Or, as I said, is he more likely to play like the 10th ranked qb, which is what he did in the other 10 games not the 3 bad ones?

It all depends on whether you believe the 3 bad games are indicative or are a bad patch they got over and won’t repeat.

….

InvaderRam wrote:

zn wrote:

Do you do that with the 24th ranked qb? Or, as I said, is he more likely to play like the 10th ranked qb, which is what he did in the other 10 games not the 3 bad ones?

i think he is somewhere in between. closer to 10.

I really do think he’s more like 10.

aeneas1

so i put together the following 2020 highlight reel of goff, games 1-13, using all-22 footage, and for good measure spliced together a bunch of john (the immortal) facenda (nfl films) voice-overs, along with some vintage nfl films music… i got the biggest kick out of the section of the highlight reel where facenda recites kipling, around the 8:00 minute mark, fits so damn perfectly, ha ha… anyhoo, looks like a super bowl offense to me! 😀